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January 3, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
January 3, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
April 6, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
April 6, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
April 6, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
April 3, 2024
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
August 19, 2016
Breakout session presentations
several families in five other states since 1985, facilitating … lender, and insurance industry meetings. Art's wife, Nancy, holds … K‐State Resources for Assistance
Others:
Income Tax Management in Low Income Years To Maximize After‐Tax Income
Planning for Income Tax Consequences for Farm Financial Distress Transactions
Managing Machinery Costs in a Difficult Financial Setting
Reductions in Working Capital and Resulting Burn Rates for Producers
How long can I afford to lose money on rented ground?
Dr. Mykel TaylorAssistant ProfessorK‐State Agricultural Economics785‐532‐3033 …
March 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. March 9th USDA WASDE Report & February 25‐26 Ag Outlook Forum
On March 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016. The
March 9th USDA WASDE report followed earlier U.S. corn supply‐demand and price projections for the “next
crop” 2016/17 marketing years provided by the USDA at the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Conference in
Arlington, Virginia on February 25‐26, 2016.
I‐B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade
among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries involved in
or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, South American countries
(Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others), and the United States …
September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
U’) in MY 2013/14, soybean stocks grew
sharply to 77.5 mmt (25.6% S/U) in MY 2014/15 and 77.7 mmt (24.7% S/U). Then in “old crop” MY 2016/17
World ending stocks are estimated to have increased to a record level of 96.0 mmt (29.1% S/U), followed by a
further increase to 97.5 mmt (28.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A key World soybean market strategy will be to wait to figure out whether dry conditions or some other
crop production malady will occur in late 2017 or early 2018 in South America that could limit 2018 soybean
production in the southern hemisphere. Although World soybean demand growth has been as strong as can
be expected, it seems that a “supply shock” or “crop shortfall” in 2018 or following years would be the most
likely factor to drive World soybean production and supply‐demand balances low enough to alter the existing
“large supply – buyer’s market” situation. With prospects now pointing toward a near record 2017 U.S.
soybean crop, World markets will turn their attention toward 2018 South American production prospects as
the next major source of soybean market risk – providing the possibility of a change in paradigm and higher
soybean prices in the next 12‐18 months.
3. USDA Corn Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA made no adjustments in its projection of 2017 U.S. soybean plantings of a record high 89.513
million acres (ma) – up from 83.433 ma in 2016. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of a record 88.731 ma is also
Page | 2
up from 82.736 ma in 2016. With near record high projected yields of 49.9 bu/ac (up 0.5 bu from August),
2017 U.S. soybean production is projected to be a record high 4.431 bb – up from 4.307 bb in 2016 (2nd
highest) and from 3.926 bb in 2014. With forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 domestic crush at a record 1.940
bb and exports forecast to be a record 2.250 bb (up 25 mb), projected U.S. total soybean use is a record 4.326
bb – up from 4.183 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17 and from 3.944 bb in the previous marketing year.
Given these results, “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast to be an 11 year high
of 475 mb (10.98% S/U), while U.S. soybean prices are forecast to be in the range of $8.35‐$10.05 (midpoint =
$9.20 /bu). This U.S. soybean price forecast is down from $9.50 in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $8.95
the year before. This USDA projection scenario is thought to have a 60% probability of occurring in the
judgment of Kansas State University Extension.
4. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices to the USDA projection are
presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood that exists of higher U.S.
soybean acreage, lower yields and lower production, and higher prices than projected by the USDA in the
September 12, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Lower Yield” Scenario #1) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (30%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 4.226 bb total use, 422 mb ending stocks, 9.99% S/U, & $9.70 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Very Low Yield” Scenario #2) “45.85 bu/ac – 4.085 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac yield, 4.085 bb production,
4.455 bb total supplies, 4.106 bb total use, 349 mb ending stocks, 8.50% S/U, & $10.20 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard World Event” Scenario #3) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 3.861 bb total use, 787 mb ending stocks, 20.38% S/U, & $7.00 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 345 mb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
supply‐demand balances along with prospects for a record large 2017 U.S. soybean crop of 4.431 bb (USDA).
Prospects for such large supplies of soybeans hinders any upward price responses in the KSU Scenarios A, B and
C above.
…
July 25, 1997
Hedging & Options
the optimal
alternative. Other pricing methods such as cash … quanti-
ties are being traded to meet cross hedged futures
contract … soybeans, wheat, or some other
futures contract be used …