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October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
In Ourselves, and Helping Others
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MICHIGAN … effective communication with others.• Organize and promote … you going?• Who are you meeting?• What might you encounter?• …
Summary Book - All Counties
2,260 FARM UNITS plus 633 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,893 … 81,684
Poultry and Eggs5 4,134
Other Livestock6 -6,931
Custom … 57,542
Hay and Forage15 1,235
Other Crop16 6,700
Government Payments17 …
General Sessions
markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and … allow obligated parties to meet their individual
mandates … diesel, biogas, etc.), to meet the volumes
of total renewable …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
June 24, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA WASDE & the June 30th USDA Acreage Reports
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. soybeans began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016,
with “new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th, May 10th, and June 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain
Stocks reports. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the
base estimate for the USDA’s 2016 U.S. soybean planted acreage forecast in the June 10th WASDE report.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S.
soybeans and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage
report. The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000
U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical
planted‐to‐harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections.
I‐B. CME JULY & NOV 2016 Soybean Futures Trends & Kansas Cash Prices
Since lows of $8.59 ½ on November 23, 2015, $8.63 on January 4, 2016, and $8.62 on February
29, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soybean futures prices have traded higher
– up to $12.08 ½ on June 6th before closing at $11.03 on Friday, June 24th (Figure 1).
Similarly, since lows of $8.50 on September 8, 2015, $8.59 ¼ on November 9, 2015, $8.68 on
January 4, 2016, and $8.68 on February 29, 2016, NOVEMBER 2016 CME soybean futures prices have
traded up to $11.86 ¼ on June 13th, before closing at $10.78 ½ on Friday, June 24th (Figure 1).
Figure 1. JULY and NOVEMBER 2016 CME Soybean Futures Weekly Price Charts …
April 26, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing
years. The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY 2016/17) provided by the USDA at the 2016
Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25‐26, 2016.
Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. The
USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. soybean
supply‐demand balance sheet. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this
report to update the USDA’s soybean production and supply‐demand projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May
10th USDA WASDE report when it releases its own updated U.S. corn supply‐demand and price projection for
“next crop” MY 2016/17.
I‐B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade
among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries involved in
or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, South American countries
(Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others), and the United States …
September 29, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
up 12.7%
and 7.9% over the three most recent marketing years.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.6 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 89.5 mmt
in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (31.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 106.5 mmt in “new crop” MY
2014/15 (34.2% of the World total).
Page | 3
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (39.6% of World total), and a projected amount of 46.3 mmt in “new crop” MY
2014/15 (40.1% of the World total).
United States’ soybean production and exports are projected to be up 29.0% and 29.1%, respectively, over
the three most recent marketing years.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historicly high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors have
surfaced at times in the last year of the possibility of slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine
industry production problems or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors. However, given
the information available to the USDA at this time, the agency has projected a continuance of the strong
growth trend in Chinese imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in recent WASDE reports – even raising the
Chinese import forecast by 1 mmt in the September 11th WASDE report. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports were to falter for whatever reason, it could have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and
World soybean market prices.
Now with an anticipated record large fall harvest of soybeans approaching in the United States, cash
soybean prices have fallen below $9.00 per bushel – with Central Kansas Terminal cash bids in the range of
$8.47 ¾ ‐ $8.78 ¾ on Thursday, September 25th. “New crop” November 2014 soybean futures closed at $9.14
per bushel on Friday, September 26th, with “next year’s crop” November 2015 soybean futures closing at $9.36
½ on the same day.
Given that the USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports will
continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early‐mid 2015 will be
record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in the broader
World soybean market. The possibility of weather‐related production problems in South America during the
spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer‐fall of 2015 could impact these trends, but until such
issues surface the soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the
foreseeable future.
I‐B. September 2014 USDA Reports
On September 11, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its September
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. soybean production estimates for 2014.
The September Crop Production report was based on farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement
information gathered during the August 25th through September 5th period. Approximately 12,000 producers
were interview during the survey period with inquiries made about probable soybean yield. The objective
yield surveys were conducted in major producing states accounting for 75 percent of U.S. soybean production
in recent years. From its objective yield field surveys, the USDA reported soybean pods with beans per 18
square feed in the report, and also calculated implied pod weight (i.e., grams per pod) in its effort to figure
soybean production at the state and national level.
On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
Page | 4
demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. Information in the
upcoming September 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old
crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. soybean usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports
“New crop” NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the September 11th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the report – Thursday, September
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $9.92 /bu, and
traded as high as $9.95 and as low as $9.69 ½ during the session, before settling at $9.81 ½ – down $0.12 ¼ for
the day (Figure 1). Since then NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures prices have traded within the range from a
high of $9.99 ¾ on September 16th, to a low of $9.09 ¾ on September 26th before closing at $9.10 ¾ that same
day. Prior to early‐mid May 2014, NOVEMBER 2014 soybean futures had trend sharply higher from a low of
$10.88 ¼ on January 31st to a high of $12.49 ¼ on April 28th, and then to a “higher high” of $12.79 on May 22nd.
Since then, prices have fallen $3.68 ¾ lower – closing at $9.10 ¼ on September 26th .
Figure 1. NOVEMBER 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
November 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 19 – Nov. 14, 2014
Close = $4.06 ½ on 11/17/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 20 – Nov. 17, 2014
Close = $3.77 ½ on 11/17/2014
Page | 3
The “new crop” JULY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately positive manner
to the information in the November 10th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Monday, November 10th –
CME JULY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.94 per bushel, trading within the range of $3.93 ¾ ‐ $4.07
during the session, before settling at $3.98 ½ – up $0.02 per bushel for the day (Figure 1). Since then, JULY
2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.94 ½ on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of
$4.17 on Thursday, November 13th, before closing at $4.06 ½ on Monday, November 17th.
Question: Do the prices in early October represent a fall harvest low?
In hindsight now it seems that the upward trend in DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices since the
$3.46 ¾ low trading price on October 1, 2014 may signal that the fall harvest market low in corn futures prices
has occurred. Of course the results of the December 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production and
WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them as well as other possible market influencin …
July 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
n for these two
countries will be even higher in “new crop” MY 2014/15 – up to 145.0 mmt, which would be up 10.4% over the
three year period. This compares to U.S. soybean production of 82.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, 89.5 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 103.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/14 – up 25.3% over the
same three year period. Also, the key market demand “driver” of Chinese soybean imports were estimated to
be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13, and 69.0 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 73.0 mb in “new
crop” MY 2014/15 – up 21.9% over the same three marketing years.
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors persist of
slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other broad,
systematic economi …