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February 26, 2024
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provide opportunities that meet or exceed harvest time price … establishes a higher floor than other minimum price alternatives …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,952 FARM UNITS plus 497 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … Income output. Income for
other livestock and crop items … Crop Enterprises:
Total Other Income: Summation of: Landlord …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,952 FARM UNITS plus 497 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … Income output. Income for other
livestock and crop items … 32
Swine4 510
Poultry and Eggs5 2
Other Livestock/Hedging6 -1,565
Custom …
May 3, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
13.78%
U.S. Grain Sorghum Avg.
Farm Price ($/bushel)
$3.22
U.S. Corn$ =
$3.55/bu
$5.02
U.S. Corn$ =
$5.18/bu
$5.99
U.S. Corn$ =
$6.22/bu
$6.33
U.S. Corn$ =
$6.89/bu
$4.28
U.S. Corn$ =
$4.46/bu
$4.03
U.S. Corn$ =
$3.70/bu
$3.10‐$3.30
$3.20
U.S. Corn$ =
$3.55/bu
$3.40
USDA
U.S. Corn$ =
$3.45/bu
$3.15
KSU
U.S. Corn$ =
$3.20/bu
$4.70
KSU
U.S. Corn$ =
$4.75/bu
Page | 8
U.S. Grain Sorghum Total Supplies
The KSU‐adjusted USDA estimate of total supplies of U.S. grain sorghum for “next crop” MY 2016/17
equals 459 mb – resulting from beginning stocks of 65 mb, projected 2016 production of 394 mb, and
negligible imports (0 bu) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total U.S. grain sorghum supplies of 475 mb in “next crop” MY
2016/17 would be down from what would be the 17‐year high of 620 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and
down from 467 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 408 mb in MY 2013/14. This KSU‐adjusted USDA
grain sorghum total supply scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring according to KSU estimates.
The “normal crop” Scenario A KSU projection for U.S. grain sorghum total supplies in “next crop” MY
2016/17 equals 460 mb – essentially equal to the KSU‐adjusted USDA projection. The likelihood of this
“normal crop” Scenario A KSU grain sorghum trend line yield / production / total supply scenario of 460 mb is
40% according to KSU estimates, with an additional 10% probability of a “short crop” Scenario B KSU forecast
of 2016 U.S. grain sorghum total supply outcome of 388 mb (Table 1).
Beginning stocks of 65 mb in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be up sharply from 18 mb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, and from 34 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15. Imports of grain sorghum into the U.S.
in “next crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be essentially “zero”, down from 5 mb in “current crop” MY
2015/16, and similar to 380,000 bu (i.e., 0.38 mb) in “old crop” MY 2014/15.
U.S. Grain Sorghum Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Food, Alcohol and Industrial Usage (FAI)
Projected U.S. grain sorghum food, alcohol, and industrial usage of approximately 99 mb in “next crop” MY
2016/17 by the USDA is down from approximately 124 mb from “current crop” MY 2015/16 (up 25 mb from
March), but up from what would be the 29‐year low of 14 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 69 mb in MY 2013/14,
and the range of 84‐94 mb during the period of MY 2008/09 through MY 2002/03 (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6).
This category includes grain sorghum used for ethanol production under the designation of “alcohol”. The
“normal crop” Scenario A KSU projection for FAI use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is 109 mb – up 10 mb from
USDA (40% probability), with a “short crop” Scenario B KSU forecast of 95 mb (10% probability).
Monthly U.S. Ethanol Production Use of Grain Sorghum: Over the September 2015 through March 2016
period (i.e., the first 7 months of the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year) at least 82 mb of grain sorghum
have been consumed for alcohol production in the United States. This is according to KSU estimates derived
from the monthly USDA NASS Grain Crushings and Co‐Product Production Report
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Current_Agricultural_Industrial_Reports/Grain_Crushings/) , and amounts to at least 66.1% of the
USDA’s implicit projection of 124 mb total use for “current crop” MY 2015/16 with 58.3% (7 of 12 months, or
September through March) of the “current” marketing year completed.
If this same pace of usage of grain sorghum in ethanol production were to continue for the remainder of
“current crop” MY 2015 (i.e., April‐August), then an additional 58.6 mb of grain sorghum could be used in
ethanol production (11.7 mb / month multiplied by 5 months). Total use of grain sorghum for ethanol
production in “current crop” MY 2015/16 would come to approximately 141 mb – up 17 mb from the USDA’s
Page | 9
current projection of 124 mb, and possibly necessitating an upward adjustment by the USDA in its “current
crop” MY 2015/15 supply‐demand balance sheet for U.S. grain sorghum in future monthly WASDE reports.
Utilization of U.S. Ethanol Plant Capacity by Grain Sorghum: According information from the Renewable
Fuels Association as of February 22, 2016, (http://www.ethanolrfa.org/bio‐refinery‐locations/), there were 10 ethanol plants in the
U.S. that are formally identified as using grain sorghum either alone or as a potential feedstock along with corn
or wheat starch. These ethanol plants are listed as having an operational capacity totaling 580 million gallons
of ethanol per year. Of these 10 locations, 8 plants were actually operational with a total of 555 mg of ethanol
production capacity in operation. These 8 operating ethanol plants are located in Kansas (3 – 122 mln gallons
total annual capacity or “mgy”), Texas (1 – 120 mgy total), California (3 – 160 mgy total), and North Dakota (1 –
153 mgy).
At a conversion rate of 2.75 gallons of ethanol per bushel of grain sorghum, if all 8 of these plants were
using 100% grain sorghum in their ethanol production processes, then this would amount to an estimated
annual maximum use of grain sorghum of 201.8 mb (i.e., 555 mg ÷ 2.75 gal/bu). This amount of ethanol
production would be larger than the USDA’s projection of 124 mb for FAI use in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
This is evidence that not all ethanol plants that have indicated that they can use grain sorghum as an
ethanol feedstock are doing so at this time at a 100% grain sorghum rate – and that in aggregate the rate of
capacity utilization is likely closer to 60% to 65% of plant capacity utilization of grain sorghum for ethanol
production. Or, it could be that more U.S. ethanol plants are now using grain sorghum as a feedstock than are
listed in the Renewable Fuels Association data. Also, the total amount of FSI usage doesn’t represent only
ethanol production, as food and other industrial uses are also included.
Figure 5. Trends in U.S. Grain Sorghum Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 ‐ “Next Crop” MY 2016/17
as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE and KSU‐adjusted December 14, 2015 USDA projections
277
143
164 …
Summary Book - All Counties
080 FARM UNITS plus 565 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,645 … Income output. Income for other
livestock and crop items … 1,778
Poultry and Eggs5 4
Other Livestock/Hedging6 114
Custom …
County Summary
14,901
Sheep3
Swine4
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 1,218
Custom … 86,783
Hay and Forage15 23,301
Other Crop16 624
Government Payments17 … 21,421
Machine Work19 14,674
Other Income/Hedging20 23,509 …
July 30, 2015
Animal Well-Being
5%
American Indian 1% 1% 1%
Other 2% 1% 1%
South 36% 34% 35%
West … they owned dogs, cats or other animals (Table 2). Nearly … 2%
Cat 61% 19% 11% 5% 4%
Other 87% 6% 3% 1% 3%
Quantity …
Breakout Sessions
lender, and insurance industry
meetings. Art's wife, Nancy, holds … Land Grant Universities, others, and taxpayers.
24B Ag … Soybeans, $8.40 per bushel
5 Other oilseeds $20.15 per hundred …
Breakout Sessions
lender, and insurance industry meetings.
Abstract/Summary … from
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts)
34B Ag … Reserved8/21/2012
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts),
however …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,952 FARM UNITS plus 497 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? ........................................................................................................60 … Income output.
Income for other livestock and crop items …