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Disclaimer:
This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk
management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty
is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must
consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her
situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State
University. |
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Estimated Weighted National Average Price and |
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Projected Counter Cyclical Payments (03/31/04) |
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Wheat (03/04) |
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Corn (03/04) |
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Estimated |
Monthly |
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Estimated |
Monthly |
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Month |
Weight |
Price |
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Month |
Weight |
Price |
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Jun |
14.2 |
3.08 |
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Sep |
8.6 |
2.20 |
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Jul |
18.9 |
2.95 |
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Oct |
13.8 |
2.12 |
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Aug |
11.6 |
3.34 |
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Nov |
10.9 |
2.20 |
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Sep |
8.5 |
3.39 |
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Dec |
7.1 |
2.32 |
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Oct |
6.3 |
3.45 |
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Jan1 |
14.0 |
2.39 |
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Nov |
4.9 |
3.59 |
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Feb |
6.3 |
2.61 |
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Dec |
7.0 |
3.71 |
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Mar |
7.3 |
2.79 |
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Jan1 |
8.5 |
3.68 |
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Apr |
5.5 |
2.84 |
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Feb |
4.9 |
3.50 |
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May |
5.2 |
2.77 |
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Mar |
5.6 |
3.71 |
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Jun |
5.7 |
2.70 |
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Apr |
4.6 |
3.77 |
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Jul |
7.3 |
2.60 |
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May |
4.5 |
3.66 |
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Aug |
8.3 |
2.63 |
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KSU Est Avg Price |
3.35 |
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2.45 |
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Strike Price |
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3.34 |
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2.32 |
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Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt |
0.00 |
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0.00 |
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USDA Est Avg Price2 |
3.30-3.40 |
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2.35-2.55 |
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Milo (03/04) |
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Soybeans (03/04) |
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Estimated |
Monthly |
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Estimated |
Monthly |
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Month |
Weight |
Price |
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Month |
Weight |
Price |
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Sep |
7.8 |
3.97 |
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Sep |
7.6 |
6.06 |
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Oct |
13.2 |
3.99 |
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Oct |
22.5 |
6.61 |
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Nov |
14.1 |
4.13 |
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Nov |
8.8 |
7.05 |
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Dec |
14.4 |
4.21 |
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Dec |
7.4 |
7.17 |
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Jan1 |
11.0 |
4.36 |
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Jan1 |
14.0 |
7.34 |
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Feb |
4.9 |
4.76 |
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Feb |
6.8 |
8.28 |
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Mar |
4.9 |
4.86 |
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Mar |
7.5 |
9.56 |
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Apr |
2.9 |
4.94 |
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Apr |
5.5 |
9.65 |
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May |
3.1 |
4.83 |
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May |
4.8 |
9.87 |
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Jun |
6.3 |
5.04 |
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Jun |
4.6 |
9.91 |
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Jul |
8.0 |
4.96 |
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Jul |
5.4 |
9.90 |
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Aug |
9.3 |
5.02 |
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Aug |
5.1 |
9.99 |
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KSU Est Avg Price |
4.45 |
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7.91 |
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Strike Price |
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3.91 |
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5.36 |
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Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt |
0.00 |
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0.00 |
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USDA Est Avg Price2 |
4.20-4.55 |
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7.15-7.55 |
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Cotton (03/04) |
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Estimated |
Monthly |
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Month |
Weight |
Price |
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Aug |
3.9 |
0.463 |
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Sep |
4.3 |
0.557 |
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Oct |
9.0 |
0.680 |
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Nov |
15.3 |
0.634 |
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Dec |
17.8 |
0.641 |
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Jan |
16.0 |
0.625 |
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Feb |
9.3 |
0.627 |
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Mar1 |
6.9 |
0.618 |
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Apr |
4.7 |
0.605 |
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May |
4.4 |
0.603 |
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Jun |
4.6 |
0.622 |
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Jul |
3.8 |
0.637 |
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KSU Est Avg Price3 |
0.6235 |
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Strike Price |
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0.6573 |
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Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt |
0.0338 |
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1The previous monthly prices are official
NASS prices. The remaining monthly prices for the marketing year are
KSU estimates. |
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2The USDA estimated weighted average
prices received by farmers are approved by the World Agricultural
Outlook Board and released monthly. These estimates were released on
March 10, 2004. |
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3By law USDA does not release an
estimated weighted average cotton price received by farmers. |
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USDA Program Rates, Estimated National Marketing Year Average
Prices, and Estimated Counter–Cyclical Payments for the 2003 Crop Year.1 |
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Estimated Counter-Cyclical Paymenta |
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Crop |
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Direct Payment Rate |
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Estimated Market Pricea |
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Effective Farm Price |
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Target Price |
Loan Rate |
Trigger Price |
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(G = max of E-F or 0) |
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(F = max of C or D) |
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(A) |
(B) |
(C) |
(D) |
(E = A - B) |
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Corn (bu) |
2.60 |
0.28 |
1.98 |
2.10 |
2.32 |
2.10 |
0.22 |
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Sorghum (bu) |
2.54 |
0.35 |
1.98 |
2.15 |
2.19 |
2.15 |
0.04 |
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Soybeans (bu) |
5.80 |
0.44 |
5.00 |
6.50 |
5.36 |
6.50 |
0.00 |
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Wheat (bu) |
3.86 |
0.52 |
2.80 |
3.25 |
3.34 |
3.25 |
0.09 |
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Barley (bu) |
2.21 |
0.24 |
1.88 |
2.60 |
1.97 |
2.60 |
0.00 |
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Oats (bu) |
1.40 |
0.02 |
1.35 |
1.40 |
1.38 |
1.40 |
0.00 |
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Minor oilseeds (cwt) |
9.80 |
0.80 |
9.60 |
-- |
9.00 |
9.30b |
0.00 |
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Upland cotton (lb) |
0.72 |
0.07 |
0.52 |
0.60c |
0.66 |
0.60 |
0.06 |
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Rice (cwt) |
10.50 |
2.35 |
6.50 |
6.35 |
8.15 |
6.50 |
1.65 |
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Peanuts (ton) |
495.00 |
36.00 |
355.00 |
<=355.00d |
459.00 |
355.00 |
104.00 |
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1Prepared by Bradley D. Lubben, Extension
Agricultural Economist, K-State Research and Extension, 331I Waters
Hall, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, October 20 2003,
Phone: 785.532.2276; fax: 785.532.5887; e-mail: blubben@ksu.edu. |
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This publication is designed to provide information about developing
agricultural policy issues and farm programs. The document does not
necessarily represent the views of Kansas State University. The complete
publication is available from Kansas State University at: http://www.agmanager.info/policy/commodity/details/policy%20minute%20031020%20-%20partial%20counter-cyclical%20payments%20due%20on%20the%202003%20crop.pdf |
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aUSDA does not publish official marketing
year national average price estimates, but rather price ranges for the
projected marketing year average prices in each month’s supply and
demand reports. The estimated counter-cyclical payments announced on
October 17, 2003 are based on the midpoints of the estimated price
ranges in the October 10 Supply and Demand report. |
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bThe trigger price for minor oilseeds is
below the loan rate. Thus, there can be no counter-cyclical payment for
minor oilseeds. |
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cUSDA is prohibited by law from
publishing a price estimate for cotton, but is required to publish an
estimated counter-cyclical payment. The estimated market price is
inferred from the estimated counter-cyclical payment as announced by
USDA. |
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dUSDA does not publish a price estimate
for peanuts similar to other commodities. Based on an announced
estimated maximum counter-cyclical payment, the estimated market price
is inferred to be less than or equal to the loan rate. |
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