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   Home / Crops / Insurance / Risk Management

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 
Estimated Weighted National Average Price and Projected Counter Cyclical Payments(09/01/05)
    Wheat (05/06)     Corn (04/05)
  Estimated Monthly     Estimated Monthly
Month Weight Price   Month Weight Price
Jun 13.1 3.23   Sep 8.5 2.20
Jul 18.4 3.20   Oct 14.1 2.15
Aug 11.6 3.21   Nov 11.1 2.05
Sep 8.8 3.37   Dec 7.4 2.04
Oct 6.6 3.48   Jan 14.8 2.12
Nov 6.0 3.56   Feb 6.3 1.95
Dec 7.4 3.51   Mar 7.1 2.02
Jan 8.4 3.47   Apr 5.7 2.00
Feb 5.7 3.45   May 5.0 1.99
Mar 5.6 3.46   Jun1 5.6 2.03
Apr 4.1 3.42   Jul 6.9 2.11
May 3.6 3.43   Aug 7.4 1.89
 KSU Est Avg Price   3.33       2.06
Strike Price   3.40       2.35
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt 0.07       0.29
USDA Est Avg Price for 04/052 2.85-3.35       2.07
    Milo (04/05)     Soybeans (04/05)
  Estimated Monthly     Estimated Monthly
Month Weight Price   Month Weight Price
Sep 7.4 3.59   Sep 7.6 5.84
Oct 11.9 3.15   Oct 23.9 5.56
Nov 14.6 3.06   Nov1 9.0 5.36
Dec 15.3 2.99   Dec 7.8 5.45
Jan 11.9 2.95   Jan 15.3 5.57
Feb 4.6 2.95   Feb 6.8 5.42
Mar 4.3 3.17   Mar 7.1 6.28
Apr 2.9 2.96   Apr 5.3 6.03
May1 2.6 3.06   May1 4.4 6.20
Jun 6.4 3.85   Jun 3.8 6.58
Jul 8.0 3.94   Jul 4.8 6.65
Aug 10.1 3.68   Aug 4.2 6.09
KSU Est Avg Price   3.27       5.76
Strike Price   3.96       5.36
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt 0.48       0.00
USDA Est Avg Price for 04/052 3.13       5.80
    Cotton (03/04)        
  Estimated Monthly        
Month Weight Price        
Aug 3.7 0.537        
Sep 4.6 0.493        
Oct 9.9 0.495        
Nov 14.9 0.444        
Dec 17.7 0.407        
Jan 15.5 0.396        
Feb 9.9 0.390        
Mar 6.9 0.422        
Apr 4.6 0.431        
May1 4.4 0.420        
Jun 4.3 0.440        
Jul 3.8 0.432        
KSU Est Avg Price3   0.4319        
Strike Price   0.6573        
Exp. Counter Cyclical Pymt 0.1373        
             
1 The previous monthly prices are official NASS prices.  The remaining monthly prices for the marketing year and all weights are KSU estimates.
2 The USDA estimated weighted average prices received by farmers are approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released monthly.  These estimates were released on August 12, 2005.
3 By law USDA does not publish an estimated weighted average cotton price received by farmers.  
             
2004/05 USDA Program Rates and Counter Cyclical Payment Trigger Price  
 
            Counter Cyclical Trigger Price Maximum Counter Cyclical Payment
Crop     Direct Payment Rate  
    Target Price Loan Rate
   
             
    (A) (B) (C) (D = A - B)  
Corn (bu)   2.63 0.28 1.95 2.35 0.40
Sorghum (bu)   2.57 0.35 1.95 2.22 0.27
Soybeans (bu)   5.80 0.44 5.00 5.36 0.36
Wheat (bu)   3.92 0.52 2.75 3.40 0.65
Barley (bu)   2.24 0.24 1.85 2.00 0.15
Oats (bu)   1.44 0.024 1.33 1.416 0.09
Minor oilseeds (cwt)1 10.10 0.80 9.30 9.30 0.00
Upland cotton (lb)2   0.724 0.0667 0.52 0.6573 0.1373
             
1 The trigger price for minor oilseeds is below the loan rate. Thus, there can be no counter-cyclical payment for minor oilseeds.
2 USDA is prohibited by law from publishing a price estimate for cotton, but is required to publish an estimated counter-cyclical payment. That means USDA must estimate the national average price to pay advanced counter cyclical payments.
 
 
Department of Agricultural Economics   K-State Research & Extension   College of Agriculture   Kansas State University