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Disclaimer:
This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk
management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty
is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must
consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her
situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State
University. |
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Estimating Portland Wheat Basis 07 White Wheat1 |
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CRC/ Portland: Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington |
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Daily |
Average |
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Daily |
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Closing |
Closing |
Daily |
Average |
Daily |
Estimated |
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Price |
Price |
Closing |
Closing |
Basis |
Portland |
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CBOT |
CBOT |
Portland |
Portland |
for |
White |
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Sep-06 |
Sep-06 |
Cash |
Cash |
Nearby |
Wheat |
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Date |
Wheat |
Wheat |
Price |
Price |
Contract |
Basis |
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08/01/06 |
3.9250 |
3.9250 |
3.8800 |
3.8800 |
-0.0450 |
0.3985 |
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08/02/06 |
4.0150 |
3.9700 |
3.9200 |
3.9000 |
-0.0700 |
0.3935 |
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08/03/06 |
3.9525 |
3.9642 |
3.9400 |
3.9133 |
-0.0508 |
0.3973 |
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08/04/06 |
3.9600 |
3.9631 |
3.9450 |
3.9213 |
-0.0419 |
0.3991 |
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08/07/06 |
3.9300 |
3.9565 |
3.9550 |
3.9280 |
-0.0285 |
0.4018 |
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08/08/06 |
3.8400 |
3.9371 |
3.9450 |
3.9308 |
-0.0062 |
0.4062 |
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08/09/06 |
3.8800 |
3.9289 |
3.9650 |
3.9357 |
0.0068 |
0.4088 |
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08/10/06 |
3.8650 |
3.9209 |
3.9650 |
3.9394 |
0.0184 |
0.4111 |
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08/11/06 |
3.7375 |
3.9006 |
3.9300 |
3.9383 |
0.0378 |
0.4150 |
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08/14/06 |
3.7400 |
3.8845 |
3.9400 |
3.9385 |
0.0540 |
0.4183 |
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08/15/06 |
3.7675 |
3.8739 |
3.9500 |
3.9395 |
0.0657 |
0.4206 |
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08/16/06 |
3.7150 |
3.8606 |
3.9650 |
3.9417 |
0.0810 |
0.4237 |
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08/17/06 |
3.6350 |
3.8433 |
3.9600 |
3.9431 |
0.0998 |
0.4274 |
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08/18/06 |
3.6450 |
3.8291 |
3.9600 |
3.9443 |
0.1152 |
0.4305 |
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08/21/06 |
3.6575 |
3.8177 |
3.9700 |
3.9460 |
0.1283 |
0.4331 |
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08/22/06 |
3.5975 |
3.8039 |
3.9500 |
3.9463 |
0.1423 |
0.4359 |
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08/23/06 |
3.6600 |
3.7954 |
3.9450 |
3.9462 |
0.1507 |
0.4376 |
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08/24/06 |
3.7550 |
3.7932 |
3.9600 |
3.9469 |
0.1538 |
0.4382 |
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08/25/06 |
3.7850 |
3.7928 |
3.9750 |
3.9484 |
0.1557 |
0.4386 |
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08/28/06 |
3.8475 |
3.7955 |
3.9600 |
3.9490 |
0.1535 |
0.4382 |
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08/29/06 |
3.8000 |
3.7957 |
3.9750 |
3.9502 |
0.1545 |
0.4384 |
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08/30/06 |
3.9750 |
3.8039 |
4.0350 |
3.9541 |
0.1502 |
0.4375 |
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08/31/06 |
4.0400 |
3.8141 |
4.0850 |
3.9598 |
0.1457 |
0.4366 |
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Historical Portland-CBOT Nearby Basis by year |
2006 |
0.15 |
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2005 |
0.35 |
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2004 |
0.80 |
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2003 |
0.29 |
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2002 |
0.60 |
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5 Yr Average Basis |
0.4400 |
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1Portland white wheat basis is defined as
the difference between Portland cash price and nearby (September 06)
Chicago wheat closing price. A simple 5 year average basis will be
added to the September 07 Chicago new crop wheat price to set the 07 CRC
Portland wheat price. |
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