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   Home / Crops / Insurance / Risk Management

Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 
Estimated Weighted National Average Price and Projected % ACRE Price loss (10/05/09)    
 
                       
1 07-08 NASS Published Price1   6.48 4.20 4.08 10.10      
2 08-09 NASS Published Price1   6.78 4.06 3.20 9.97      
3 KSU Est. 2008/09 for ACRE   $6.78 $4.10 $3.38 $9.87      
4 % of 08-09 NASS Price Settled3   100% 100% 100% 100%      
ACRE                      
5 2009 ACRE Strike Price, Average of 2007/08 & 2008/09 MYA Price 6.63 4.13 3.64 10.04      
               
6 Assume an "Average" State Yield, 2009 ACRE Payment Price X 90%4 5.97 3.72 3.28 9.03      
             
7 Assuming an "Average" Yield, Maximum ACRE Price to Exceed the 25% Cap on Payments5 4.48 2.79 2.46 6.77      
             
             
8 KSU Est. 2009/10 on Aug 14, 2009 5.16 3.24 2.91 9.67      
  Plus or Minus 0.78 0.65 0.44 1.78      
9 USDA Est. 2009/10 NASS Price6   4.55-5.15 3.05-3.65 2.60-3.20 8.00-10.00      
               
10 KSU Forecast of the 2009/10 New Crop MYA Price and range of price7   4.92 3.17 2.81 9.00      
  4.18 2.54 2.39 7.35     -
  5.65 3.81 3.23 10.66      
11 % of 08-09 NASS Price Settled3   55% 7% 6% 7%      
12 $ ACRE in (out) of the Money   1.05 0.54 0.46 0.03      
13 % ACRE in (out) of the Money   15.9% 13.2% 12.7% 0.3%      
Next Year's Cup & Cap                  
14 Min 09/10 Price to trigger 10% Cup 5.15 3.34 3.17 8.19      
15 Max 09/10 Price to trigger 10% Cap 6.35 4.08 3.83 10.00      
                       
NASS Monthly Wheat Prices and Historical Weights8        
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Jun 3.55 10.9% 3.23 11.9% 3.98 16.0% 5.03 12.0% 7.62 11.4% 5.74  
Jul 3.37 12.4% 3.20 16.8% 3.88 18.5% 5.17 27.1% 7.15 21.8% 5.13  
Aug 3.27 9.0% 3.24 13.4% 3.91 12.6% 5.64 18.7% 7.61 14.9% 4.83  
Sep 3.36 11.0% 3.36 11.7% 4.06 6.9% 6.76 9.4% 7.43 7.8% 4.30  
Oct 3.43 7.0% 3.43 6.3% 4.59 9.1% 7.65 4.5% 6.65 3.8%    
Nov 3.46 7.8% 3.45 4.7% 4.59 4.8% 7.39 3.8% 6.29 3.2%    
Dec 3.40 8.6% 3.53 8.1% 4.52 6.8% 7.71 5.9% 5.95 6.9%    
Jan 3.43 9.7% 3.52 8.4% 4.53 8.2% 7.96 7.8% 6.20 7.4%    
Feb 3.36 9.5% 3.66 6.2% 4.71 5.1% 10.10 3.9% 5.79 4.3%    
Mar 3.42 7.1% 3.79 5.1% 4.75 4.9% 10.50 3.1% 5.71 6.6%    
Apr 3.35 3.4% 3.81 3.4% 4.89 4.2% 10.10 2.0% 5.75 5.3%    
May 3.31 3.6% 4.09 4.0% 4.88 2.9% 8.87 1.8% 5.84 6.6%    
                       
NASS Monthly Corn Prices and Historical Weights8        
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 2.20 7.8% 1.90 7.4% 2.20 6.9% 3.28 7.9% 5.01 4.5% 3.32  
Oct 2.14 11.7% 1.82 11.3% 2.55 14.7% 3.29 13.7% 4.37 9.4%    
Nov 2.05 11.7% 1.77 8.9% 2.88 14.6% 3.44 11.1% 4.26 11.9%    
Dec 2.04 8.6% 1.92 7.9% 3.01 8.0% 3.77 8.7% 4.11 8.9%    
Jan 2.12 12.4% 2.00 15.4% 3.05 15.3% 3.98 16.5% 4.36 12.8%    
Feb 1.95 8.4% 2.02 8.2% 3.44 5.9% 4.54 7.3% 3.87 6.4%    
Mar 2.02 8.2% 2.06 6.8% 3.43 6.6% 4.70 7.5% 3.85 9.6%    
Apr 2.00 5.2% 2.11 6.4% 3.39 4.4% 5.14 6.2% 3.85 6.7%    
May 1.98 5.9% 2.17 6.4% 3.49 4.7% 5.27 4.6% 3.96 9.1%    
Jun 2.03 7.2% 2.14 6.9% 3.53 6.6% 5.47 6.1% 4.01 7.4%    
Jul 2.11 7.0% 2.14 7.5% 3.32 6.2% 5.25 6.4% 3.60 6.9%    
Aug 1.95 5.9% 2.09 6.9% 3.26 6.1% 5.26 4.0% 3.33 6.4%    
                       
NASS Monthly Grain Sorghum Prices and Historical Weights ($/bu)8    
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 2.00 5.0% 1.91 7.1% 2.40 4.1% 3.46 8.1% 4.47 3.9% 2.89  
Oct 1.78 7.4% 1.67 9.4% 2.89 12.2% 3.46 13.7% 3.86 3.1%    
Nov 1.71 15.2% 1.58 19.1% 3.26 23.3% 3.51 19.8% 3.63 11.4%    
Dec 1.67 17.3% 1.63 15.9% 3.41 9.6% 3.88 15.4% 2.87 17.2%    
Jan 1.65 13.8% 1.77 13.8% 3.53 12.2% 4.14 14.9% 3.18 15.1%    
Feb 1.66 10.2% 1.90 7.0% 3.89 7.7% 4.68 6.3% 2.82 7.3%    
Mar 1.70 5.7% 1.98 5.1% 3.63 1.5% 5.06 4.6% 3.00 13.0%    
Apr 1.66 3.8% 2.07 5.2% 3.34 1.0% 5.21 4.0% 3.12 6.0%    
May 1.71 3.1% 2.25 4.3% 3.63 1.6% 5.22 2.1% 3.35 9.1%    
Jun 2.11 6.4% 2.21 1.7% 3.42 5.1% 5.66 3.1% 3.52 3.4%    
Jul 2.21 6.8% 2.58 6.7% 3.09 7.8% 5.07 4.5% 2.91 5.4%    
Aug 2.07 5.3% 2.44 4.7% 3.32 13.9% 4.70 3.5% 3.01 5.1%    
                       
NASS Monthly Soybean Prices and Historical Weights8        
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 5.83 7.7% 5.77 7.4% 5.23 5.6% 8.15 10.4% 10.80 5.1% 9.85  
Oct 5.56 15.0% 5.67 19.9% 5.52 19.9% 8.36 21.1% 9.95 21.0%    
Nov 5.36 10.4% 5.62 6.2% 6.08 10.2% 9.42 10.7% 9.39 6.9%    
Dec 5.45 9.4% 5.78 9.2% 6.18 8.8% 10.00 8.2% 9.24 7.1%    
Jan 5.57 12.2% 5.87 14.1% 6.37 15.1% 9.95 17.3% 9.97 15.4%    
Feb 5.42 12.4% 5.67 5.7% 6.87 6.8% 11.70 7.3% 9.54 6.7%    
Mar 5.95 11.0% 5.57 5.9% 6.95 6.2% 11.40 6.3% 9.12 8.9%    
Apr 6.03 4.8% 5.52 5.5% 6.88 5.1% 12.00 4.8% 9.79 10.2%    
May 6.21 4.2% 5.68 6.6% 7.12 5.3% 12.10 3.2% 10.70 6.3%    
Jun 6.58 5.4% 5.62 5.4% 7.51 6.2% 13.10 4.4% 11.40 4.8%    
Jul 6.65 3.4% 5.61 6.4% 7.56 5.5% 13.30 4.4% 10.80 4.6%    
Aug 6.15 4.1% 5.23 7.7% 7.72 5.3% 12.80 1.9% 10.80 3.0%    
                       
1NASS Published Prices.  The 2008/09 MYA price for all crops are final.
2The NASS 2008-09 marketing year is a weighted Marketing Year Average (MYA) price.  The 2008-09 MYA price is averaged with the 2007-08 MYA price to set the strike price for the 2009 ACRE program.  Also the 2008-09 MYA price is used to settle claims on the 2008 SURE programs.  The 2008/09 MYA wheat price is final.
3The 2008-09 MYA price for wheat marketing year starts June 1 through May 31 while the marketing year for the other crops are September 1 though August 31.
4The 2009/10 MYA price would need to fall below the strike price to trigger assuming the state yield is equal to the state Olympic 5 year average yield.
5The maximum 2009/10 MYA price necessary to hit the 25% of coverage payment limit.  Once the ACRE 25% of coverage payment limit is hit, then prices will need to fall below 70% times the loan rate ($1.365 for corn) to trigger additional payments because there is no counter cyclical payment. The maximum price will be lower for farmers over the $73,000 payment limit.
6USDA forecasted price released on October 9, 2009.
7It is assumed the market traded nearby futures prices adjusted for percentage monthly basis for MYA cash price over the past 24 months, is the best current estimate of the MYA price to settle ACRE claims.  Therefore, the analysis is based on the KSU estimated price rather than the USDA estimated price published by the Office of the Chief Economist. 
8Historical NASS yields and prices are published annually.  The current Marketing Year Average prices are updated monthly.  After the marketing year ends, NASS will publish the weights, that are available for wheat but the fall crop weights will be published in September for MYA 2008/09.
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