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April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
April 11th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On April 11th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “current crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and will last through May 31, 2017.
On March 31st, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had
released it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain
Stocks (http …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
as ethanol plants on September 1st ranged from $3.22 ¾ ($0.35 under
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DEC) to $3.72 ¾ ($0.15 over DEC) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and
nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas
grain markets, it is a positive that Kansas cash corn prices have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer production risk. The corn market has b …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
May 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “current” 2015/16, and “next crop” 2017/18 marketing years
(MY) for corn. The “next crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. wheat will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last
through August 31, 2018.
Earlier, on March 31st, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had
released it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain
Stocks (http …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
July 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On July 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2017 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for wheat.
“New crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. wheat will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had
released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… 250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provi … midst of the 2017 Kansas corn harvest.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
cor …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ough winter 2017‐
2018 on into early Spring 2018 are likely to be limited by ending stocks of U.S. corn in the 2.250‐2.500 bb
range, coupled with ending stocks‐to‐use of 16.0%‐17.5% for the 2017/18 marketing year. However, in
Spring‐early Summer 2018 the U.S. corn market is likely again to have to weigh the annual risk of weather‐
limiting 201 …
November 22, 2019
Fuel Price Forecasts
By Gregg Ibendahl and Dan O’Brien – November 22, 2019 Introduction … https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/sites/fmcsa.dot.gov/files/docs/emergency/484821/notice-enforcement-
discretion-regional-emergency-declaration-2019-008-11-01-2019.pdf). This declaration relaxes … said, other market factors or events could
also occur that would …
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
Jeff Peterson
Dr. Dan O’Brien … assistant professor, Peterson and O’Brien are associate professors … Net Present Value of Gross Profit …
July 18, 2012
Energy
Don Hofstrand, and Daniel O’Brien
A project financed by the … Don Hofstrand, and Daniel O’Brien
A project financed by the … cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure …