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AgManager Crop Marketing Basis Maps
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Crops: Basis & Basis Deviation Maps |
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This monthly
basis report provides a spatial analysis of crop basis in the Great Plains
Region: Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and parts of Colorado and
Texas. Basis is calculated by subtracting the nearby futures price from the
cash price, where nearby is defined as the futures contract closest to
expiration without going into the delivery month. Basis captures the effects of local supply and demand, as well as
transportation costs, on commodity prices.
The maps
in this report are
created from cash and futures prices that are collected and analyzed on the
third Wednesday of each month. The basis maps in this report show current basis
levels for soybeans, corn, wheat, and grain sorghum (grain sorghum basis is
calculated using the corn futures market). The basis deviation maps
show the difference between the current basis and the three-year historical
average basis for the same week and location.
Cash price data were collected for 325-450 locations, depending on the
crop, and the information was analyzed in a Geographic Information System
(GIS). Inverse distance methods were used to estimate the change in
basis over space, which provides an estimate of the basis for observed and
unobserved locations. A flag on the map denotes a location where
cash prices were available. Care should be taken in interpreting
basis estimates in portions of the Great Plains region where few or no
cash prices were available. |
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Kevin Dhuyvetter, K-State Agricultural Economics (785-532-3527;
kcd@ksu.edu) |
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Crop
Basis Maps: 3-16-2005 |
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Soybeans
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Cash Price, $/bu.
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Basis, $/bu.
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Futures Price, $/bu.
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Average
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$6.19
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-$0.540
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$6.74
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Minimum
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$5.61
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-$0.815
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Maximum
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$6.73
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-$0.055
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Number
of Locations:
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364
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Soybean Basis |
Soybean
Basis Deviation |
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Click on map to enlarge
image |
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Soybean Futures: The CBT May 05 soybean
futures contract closed at $6.74 on 3/16/2005, up from this time last month(2/16/2005) by $1.39/bu. The Wednesday close was
-$3.21/bu. from last year (3/17/2004), when prices rose up to a
13-year high of $10.52 on March 24, 2004.
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Soybean Basis: The average cash price across 364 locations in the Great Plains was $6.19 , with a minimum price of $5.61 and a maximum of $6.73 /bu. Basis levels averaged --$0.540 with Missouri, central and
eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma reporting above average
prices. Weaker basis levels as low as -$0.815 appeared in the western portion
of the Great Plains.
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Average
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Minimum
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Maximum
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-$0.22
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-$0.42
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$0.19
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Soybean Basis Deviation: Nebraska saw the most positive level of the
region -$0.22 from the historical average.
Basis levels in much of Missouri were about 1 - 2 cents weaker than the three
year average. On average across the rest of the area, basis levels were below
the three-year historical average but southeast Missouri, and some pockets in
Kansas and Oklahoma reported average levels.
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Corn
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Cash Price, $/bu.
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Basis, $/bu.
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Futures Price, $/bu.
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Average
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$1.98
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-$0.277
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$2.26
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Minimum
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$1.73
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-$0.525
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Maximum
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$2.83
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$0.575
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Number
of Locations:
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421
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Corn Basis |
Corn Basis Deviation |
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Click on map to enlarge
image |
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Corn
Futures:
The CBT May 05 corn futures
contract closed at
$2.26
on
3/16/2005, up from this time last month (
2/16/2005) by
$0.29/bu. The Wednesday close was
-$0.83/bu from the same time last year (
3/17/2004).
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Corn Basis: Cash prices averaged $1.98 across the 421 Great Plains locations and ranged from a
high of $2.83 to a low of $1.73 /bu. Basis levels averaged -$0.277 and were the weakest in Nebraska,
northern and eastern Kansas and most of Missouri. Southwest Kansas,
eastern Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle followed last
month's trend with the strongest basis levels relative to other locations.
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Average
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Minimum
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Maximum
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-$0.16
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-$0.50
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$0.07
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Corn Basis Deviation: On average, across all locations, basis
deviation levels were -$0.16 from the three-year historical
average. The center of the region was about 8-11 cents weaker while the
perimeter of the Great Plains were closest to the three-year historical
average, falling between 1-3 below average.
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Wheat
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Cash Price, $/bu.
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Basis, $/bu.
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Futures Price, $/bu.
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Average
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$3.36
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-$0.273
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$3.63
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Minimum
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$2.66
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-$0.967
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Maximum
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$4.03
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$0.403
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Number
of Locations:
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330
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Wheat Basis |
Wheat Basis
Deviation |
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Click on map to enlarge
image |
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Wheat Futures: The KCBT May 05 wheat
futures contract closed at $3.63 on (
3/16/2005), $0.38 up from this time last
month. The Wednesday close was -$0.41from the same week last year (
3/17/2004).
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Wheat Basis: Cash prices averaged $3.36 across 330 locations in the Great Plains
region. The high cash price observed was $4.03 and the low price was $2.66 /bu. Basis levels averaged-$0.273 across all locations.
Stronger basis levels were seen in central and eastern Kansas, eastern
Oklahoma and portions of Colorado, while the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, most
of Nebraska and western Kansas basis levels were weaker.
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Average
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Minimum
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Maximum
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-$0.10
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-$0.35
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$0.31
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Wheat Basis Deviation: On average, across all locations, basis
levels were stable. Eastern Oklahoma, central Colorado, central and southeast
Kansas basis levels were -$0.10 from the historical averages,
while much of Nebraska was 1 - 8 cents weaker. The Oklahoma/Texas panhandle,
western Kansas and northeast Kansas showed basis levels that ranged from 3 to
4 cents above the three-year historical average.
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Grain
Sorghum
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Cash Price, $/bu.
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Basis, $/bu.
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Futures Price, $/bu.
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Average
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$1.77
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-$0.494
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$2.26
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Minimum
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$1.22
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-$1.035
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Maximum
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$2.27
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$0.013
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Number
of Locations:
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298
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Grain Sorghum Basis |
Grain Sorghum Basis
Deviation |
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Click on map to enlarge
image |
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Corn Futures: The CBT May 05 corn futures
contract closed at $2.26 on 3/16/2005,
up from this time last month (2/16/2005) by $0.29/bu. The Wednesday close was -$0.83/bu from the same time last year (3/17/2004).
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Grain Sorghum Basis: Cash prices averaged
$1.77 across
298 locations and ranged from a high
of
$2.27 to a low of
$1.22 /bu. Basis averaged
-$0.494 across all locations but eastern
Missouri, Colorado, Texas faired better. The Great Plains were divide
throughout the three sections with eastern and western portions showing
stronger levels than the mid-section. Basis levels were weaker in western
Missouri, most of Kansas and central to eastern Nebraska.
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Average
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Minimum
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Maximum
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-$0.24
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-$0.53
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$0.12
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Grain Sorghum Basis Deviation: The basis levels observed
this week averaged
-$0.24 from the three-year historical
average across all locations. Basis levels from Nebraska through
Oklahoma were 20 - 30 cents weaker while eastern Colorado and Missouri were
10 to 20 cents weaker than the historical three-year average.
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