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USDA September 30th Quarterly Stocks & Small Grains Summary Reports

October 2, 2014


Summary

On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains 2014 Summary reports from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). The Quarterly Stocks Report indicated the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with grain disappearance during June-August 2014. 

Corn and Grain Sorghum: “Old crop” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks increased from 1.181 billion bushels (bb) in the most recent September 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection up to 1.236 bb in the 9/30 Quarterly Stocks report – which is up 50.5% from 821 million bushels (mb) from a year earlier on September 1, 2013.  This USDA projection was 5.1% larger than the average pre-report trade estimate, but within the estimate range of 1.020-1.350 bb.  Corn usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 2.616 bb, up sharply from 1.985 bb in June-August 2013, and from 2.107 bb in June-August 2012. Grain sorghum stocks of 34 mb on September 1st in the U.S. were up from 15 mb on 9/1/2013, but less than 59 mb on 9/1/2012. Grain Sorghum usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 58 mb, up sharply from 29 mb in June-August 2013, and from 36 mb in June-August 2012.

Soybeans: U.S. soybean Sept. 1st ending stocks in “old crop” MY 2013/14 were a record low 92 mb, down from 130 mb in the September 11th WASDE report, down 27% from the average pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb, and down from 141 mb on September 1, 2013.   Soybean usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 313 mb, down marginally from 318 mb in June-August 2013, and down sharply from 498 mb in June-August 2012.  The USDA raised its estimate of 2013 U.S. soybean production by 69 mb to 3.358 bb, setting the stage for U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet adjustments to occur in the October 10, 2014 WASDE report.

Wheat:  September 1, 2014 U.S. wheat stocks of 1.914 bb were up 34 mb (up 1.8%) from pre-report trade expectations of 1.880 bb.  This projection of 1.914 bb in ending stocks on 9/1/2014 is also up from 1.870 bb on 9/1/2013, but less than 2.105 bb on 9/1/2012.  Wheat usage in the U.S. during June-August 2014 was 711 mb, down from 1.013 bb in June-August 2013, and from 929 mb in June-August 2012.

Small Grains 2014 Summary:  This report indicated a number of notable changes in 2014 U.S. wheat production from previous estimates by wheat type and category.  However, these changes largely offset each other quantity-wise, leading to a small increase in total 2013 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections.   United States’ wheat production in 2014 was estimated to be 2.035 bb, up marginally from 2.030 bb in the September 11th Crop Production report, and consistent with average pre-report trade expectations.  Lower 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production was more than offset by larger production from soft red winter, white winter, other spring, and durum wheat types.  Forecast production of “other spring wheat” was raised to 601 mb from earlier USDA projections of 572 mb, while projected “white winter” wheat production of 184 mb was down 17 mb from earlier USDA estimates.

Resulting Changes in USDA and KSU Supply-Demand and Price Forecasts:  As a result of these September 30th reports, it is likely that the USDA will make some important changes in its October 10th Crop Production the and also in the supply-demand balance sheets and price forecasts in the 10/10/2014 WASDE report.  It is anticipated that projected supplies and possibly ending stocks of U.S. corn, grain sorghum and wheat will increase, with these crops’ respective price projections lowered at least marginally for “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Conversely, projected new crop beginning stocks and consequently supplies of U.S. soybeans are projected to decrease, providing at least some support for “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. soybean prices. 


I. U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks Report – September 30th

On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks report from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS).   Following is a report summary indicating the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with calculated grain disappearance during the June-August 2014 period.

U.S. Corn Stocks & Use

Old crop U.S. corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 1.236 billion bushels (bb), up 415 million bushels (mb) or 50.5% from 821 mb of U.S. corn stocks on September 1, 2012 (Table 1).  The total of 1.236 bb was up 51 mb (up 4.3%) from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 1.185 bb, but within the range of pre-report trade estimates of 1.020-1.350 bb.  The September 1st estimate of 1.236 mb was also above the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.181 bb in the September 11th USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, with “old crop” MY 2013/14 ending on August 31, 2014.  This projection of 1.236 bb in September 1st U.S. corn stocks is markedly larger than the smaller amounts of U.S. corn September 1st stocks on record since the early 1990s, including 426 mb on 9/1/1996, 883 mb on 9/1/1997, 958 mb on 9/1/2004, 989 mb on 9/1/2012, and 821 mb on 9/1/2013.

Of total U.S. corn stocks of 1.236 mb at all locations on September 1, 2014, 462 mb were stored on farms, up 68% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 774 mb, were up 42% from a year earlier.

The June - August 2014 indicated disappearance of U.S. corn is 2.616 bb, compared with 1.985 bb during the June-August 2013 period, and 2.107 bb during June-August 2012 (Table 2).  Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2014 time period, U.S. food, alcohol, and industrial usage equaled approximately 1.721 bb (up from the 2011-2012 range of 1.548-1.574 bb), with exports near 523 mb (also up from 162 mb in June-August 2013 and 291 mb in June-August 2012), feed and residual use of near 370 mb (up from 246 mb in June-August 2013 and 330 mb in June-August 2012), with a marginal amount (2 mb) of seed use (Table 3).

U.S. Grain Sorghum Stocks & Use

Old crop U.S. grain sorghum stocks stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 34.0 mb, up 19 mb or 127% from 15.1 mb on September 1, 2013 (Table 1).  The total of 34.0 mb on 9/1/2014 was up 6 mb from the average DTN survey pre-report trade estimate of 28.0 mb, and above the upper end of the range of pre-report trade estimates of 25-31 mb.  The September 1st estimate of 34.0 mb in U.S. grain sorghum stocks was also marginally above the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. grain sorghum ending stocks of 20 mb in the September 11th USDA WASDE report. 

On-farm stocks, at 1,945,000 bushels, were up 223% from last year (Table 2).  Off-farm stocks, at 32.1 mb, were up 121% from September 1, 2013.  The June - August 2014 indicated disappearance from all positions was 58 mb, up 101.4% from 29 mb in June-August 2013 usage, and up 62.2% from 36 mb in June-August 2012 grain sorghum use.

U.S. Soybean Stocks, Use, & Revised 2013 Production

Old crop U.S. soybean stocks stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 92 mb, down 49 mb (down 34.6%) from 141 mb on September 1, 2013, and down 77 mb (down 45.7%) from 169 mb on September 1, 2012 (Table 1).  The total of 92 mb was the lowest amount of September 1st U.S. soybean ending stocks since at least 1976, and was down 34 mb (down 27%) from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb, and below the lower end of the range of trade estimates of 100-150 mb.  The September 1st estimate of 92 mb was also markedly below the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. soybean ending stocks of 130 mb in the September 11th USDA WASDE report.  This is the smallest amount of U.S. soybean September 1st stocks since 135 mb in MY 2008/09, 113 mb in MY 2003/04, 132 mb in MY 1996/97, and 103 mb in MY 1976/77.

Soybean stocks stored on farms in the United States totaled 21.3 mb, down 46% from a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at 70.6 mb, were down 30% from last September 1st.   

The June - August 2014 indicated disappearance of U.S. soybeans of 313 mb, was down 1.5% from 318 mb during June-August 2013, and down 37.1% from 498 mb in usage during June-August 2012 (Table 2).   This amount of June-August U.S. soybean disappearance of 313 mb was the smallest amount of U.S. soybean June-August use since 299 mb in June-August 2004, 283 mb in June-August 1989, 292 mb in June-August 1985, and 296 mb in June-August 1984.  Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2013 time period, U.S. crush, seed & residual usage equaled approximately 256 mb (versus 267 and 299 mb the two previous year), and exports were near 57 mb (versus 51 mb one year ago, and 204 mb two years ago) (Table 4).

2013 U.S. Soybean Production Revision: The USDA also indicated that based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, 2013 U.S. soybean production was revised to 3.358 bb, up 69.151 mb from the previous estimate provided in the September 11th USDA NASS Crop Production report (Table 4).  The USDA raised 2013 U.S. soybean planted area by 307,000 acres up to 76.840 million acres (ma), and raised harvested area by 384,000 acres up to 75.869 ma.  The 2013 U.S. soybean yield, at 44.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac), is up 0.7 bu/ac from the USDA’s previous September 11th estimate.

U.S. Wheat Stocks & Use

All U.S. wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2014 totaled 1.914 bb, up 44 mb (up 4.4%) from 1.870 bb a year ago (Table 1).  The total of 1.914 mb was up 34 mb (up 1.8%) from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 1.880 bb, and within the range of trade estimates of 1.707-1.980 bb.   The September 1st U.S. wheat stocks estimate of 1.914 bb is marginally larger than the lower end of September 1st U.S. wheat stocks estimates over time, including 1.870 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.858 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.717 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.751 bb in MY 2006/07, and 1.749 bb in MY 2002/03.

On-farm stocks were estimated at 722 mb, up 30% from last September 1st.  Off-farm stocks, at 1.192 bb, were down 9% from a year ago.

The June - August 2014 indicated disappearance of U.S. wheat is estimated to be 771 mb, down 302 mb (down 29.8%) from 1.013 bb in usage during June-August 2013, and down 218 mb (down 25.5%) from 929 mb in U.S. wheat usage during June-August 2012 (Table 2).   Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2014 time period, U.S. food usage equaled approximately 234 mb (essentially unchanged from 234 mb last year, and 238 mb two years ago), with exports near 237 mb (down from 358 mb last year, and 264 mb two years ago), feed and residual use near 236 mb (down sharply from the range of 417-426 mb the last two years), and with a small amount estimated for seed use (4 mb) (Table 5).

II. U.S. Small Grains 2014 Summary Report – September 30th

On September 30, 2013 the USDA also released its Small Grains 2014 Summary report from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS).   A number of notable changes in U.S. wheat production estimates were made by type and category, but these changes largely offset each other – leading to a small increase in total 2014 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections.  U.S. wheat production estimates were provided for all U.S. wheat types combined (i.e., “All Wheat”), winter wheat, hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, white winter (WW) wheat, other spring wheat, and durum wheat, as well as for U.S. oats and barley.

U.S. All Wheat Production

United States’ all wheat production totaled 2.035 bb in 2014.  This amount is down 100 mb (down 4.7%) from 2.135 bb in 2013 (up 5.3 ma from previous reports), and down 230 mb  from 2.266 bb in 2012 (down 10.2% from earlier USDA estimates) (Table 6).  The total of 2.035 bb was down marginally from the average Reuters pre-report trade estimate survey number of 2.037 bb, and within the range of trade estimates of 2.004-2.075 bb.  The estimate of 2.035 bb for 2013 was also up from 2.030 bb projected in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. all wheat planted area in 2014 totaled 56.822 million acres (ma), up from both 55.236 ma (up 80 ma from earlier USDA estimates) in 2013, and from 55.666 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 56.822 ma of U.S. wheat planted in 2014 was up from the USDA’s earlier projection of 56.474 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. all wheat harvested area totaled 45.476 ma in 2014, up 2.5% from 45.332 ma in 2013 (up 175,000 acres from earlier USDA estimates), but down from 48.921 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 45.177 ma harvested of U.S. wheat was up 236,000 acres from the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.  The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for all U.S. wheat was 81.8%, 80.6%, and 87.9% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.

The U.S. average all wheat yield in 2014 is estimated to be 43.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac), down from the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and down from the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in both 2010 and 2012, and from 43.7 bu/ac in 2011.   This estimate of 43.8 bu/ac yield was down marginally from 43.9 bu/ac in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.  

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

United States’ Winter Wheat production totaled 1.378 bb in 2014, down 1.4% from 1.397 bb in 2013, and down 10.7% from 1.543 bb in 2012 (Table 6).  The total of 1.378 bb was down 1.2% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 1.394 bb, and within the range of trade estimates of 1.376-1.413 bb.  The estimate of 1.378 bb for 2014 was down from 1.397 bb projected in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. winter wheat planted area totaled 42.399 ma in 2014, up from both 43.230 ma in 2013, and from 41.224 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 42.399 ma planted was up from 42.296 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. winter wheat harvested area totaled 32.304 ma in 2014, down from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down from 34.734 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 32.304 ma harvested was up from 32.419 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. winter wheat was 76.2%, 75.5%, and 84.3% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.

The U.S. average winter wheat yield in 2014 is estimated at 42.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac), down from 47.3 bu/ac in 2013, and from 47.3 bu/ac in 2012.   This estimate of 42.6 bu/ac yield was down 0.5 bu/ac from 43.1 bu/ac in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.  

U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Production

HRW Wheat production totaled 738 mb in 2014, down 1.3% from 747 mb in 2013, and down from 1.000 bb in 2012 (Table 6).  The total of 738 mb was up 1.4% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 728 mb, but within the range of trade estimates of 707-758 mb.  The estimate of 738 mb for 2014 was up from 729 mb projected in the September 11th USDA WASDE Report.

U.S. Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Production

SRW Wheat production totaled 455 mb in 2014, down 19.9% from 568 mb in 2013 (Table 6).  The total of 455 mb was down 2.1% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 465 mb, and within the range of trade estimates of 437-472 mb.  The estimate of 455 mb for 2014 was down from 466 mb projected in the September 11th USDA WASDE report.

U.S. White Winter (WW) Wheat Production

WW Wheat production totaled 184 mb in 2014, down 18.8% from 227 mb in 2012 (Table 6).  The total of 184 mb was down 7.9% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 201 mb, and below the lower  end of the range of trade estimates of 193-213 mb.  The estimate of 184 mb for 2014 was down from 202 mb projected in the September 15th USDA Wheat Outlook report.

U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Other spring wheat production totaled 601 mb in 2014, up 12.5% from 534 mb in 2013 (Table 6).  The total of 601 mb was up 3.6% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 580 mb, and within the range of trade estimates of 437-472 mb.  The estimate of 601 mb for 2014 was also up from 572 mb projected in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. other spring wheat planted area totaled 13.025 ma in 2014, up from both 11.606 ma in 2013, and from 12.289 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 13.025 ma planted was up from 12.709 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. other spring wheat harvested area totaled 12.800 ma in 2014, up from both 11.344 ma in 2013, and from 12.055 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 12.800 ma harvested was up from 12.403 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. other spring wheat was 98.3%, 97.7%, and 98.1% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.

The U.S. average other spring wheat yield in 2014 is estimated at 46.9 bushels per acre (bu/ac), down 0.2 bu/ac from the 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and up from 45.0 bu/ac in 2012.   This estimate of 46.9 bu/ac yield was up from 46.1 bu/ac in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.  

U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Durum wheat production totaled 57.094 mb in 2014, down 0.1% from 57.976 mb in 2013, and down from 82.796 mb in 2012 (Table 6).  The total of 57.1 mb was down 7.9% from the average Reuters survey pre-report trade estimate of 62.0 mb, and within the range of trade estimates of 56-70 mb.  The estimate of 57.1 mb for 2014 was down from 61.0 mb projected in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. durum wheat planted area totaled 1.398 ma in 2014, down marginally from 1.400 ma in 2013, but less than 2.153 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 1.398 ma planted was down from 1.469 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. durum wheat harvested area totaled 1.372 ma in 2014, up from 1.338 ma in 2013, but down from 2.132 ma in 2012.  This estimate of 1.372 ma harvested was down from 1.418 ma in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. durum wheat was 98.1%, 95.6%, and 99.0% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.

The U.S. average durum wheat yield in 2014 is estimated at 41.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac), down 1.7 bu/ac from the 43.3 bu/ac in 2013, and up from 38.8 bu/ac in 2012.  This estimate of 41.6 bu/ac yield was down from 42.7 bu/ac in the September 11th USDA Crop Production report.   

U.S. Oat Production

U.S. oat production is estimated at 70.460 mb in 2014, up 9.0% from 64.642 mb in 2013, and up from 64.024 mb in 2012 (Table 6).   U.S. oat planted acres are estimated at 2.723 ma in 2014, down from both 2.980 ma in 2013, and from 2.760 ma in 2012.  U.S. oat harvested area for grain of 1.039 ma in 2014 is up from 1.009 ma in 2013, but down from 1.045 ma in 2012.  The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. oats was 38.2%, 33.9%, and 37.9% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.

Oat yields are estimated at 67.8 bu/ac in 2014, up 3.7 bushels from 64.1 bu/ac in 2013, and up from 61.3 bu/ac in 2012.  

U.S. Barley Production

Barley production is estimated at 180.427 million bushels (mb), down from both 216.745 mb in 2013, and from 220.284 ma in 2012 (Table 6).  Planted area, at 2.975 million acres (ma) in 2014, is down from both 3.528 ma in 2013, and 3.637 ma in 2012. Harvested area, at 2.458 ma in 2014, is down from both 3.040 ma in 2013, and 3.244 ma in 2012.  The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. barley was 82.6%, 86.2%, and 89.2% in 2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively.   Average yield per acre, at 73.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) in 2014, is up from both 71.3 bu/ac in 2013, and from 67.9 bu/ac in 2012.  

Dan O'Brien
Extension Grain Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
dobrien@ksu.edu
 
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