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USDA’s Quarterly Stocks & Small Grains Summary Report

October 2, 2013


Summary

On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks and its Small Grains 2013 Summary reports from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS).   

Quarterly Stocks Report: The Quarterly Stocks Report indicated the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with grain disappearance during the June-August 2013 period.  On September 30, 2013 the USDA also released its report from NASS.   

Key findings of the report included a sizable increase in “old crop” 2012/13 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks – up to 824 million bushels (mb) from the most recent September 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection of 661 mb, and also above the upper end of the prereport trade estimate range of 552-765 mb.  A second key finding was that U.S. soybean ending stocks in “old crop” MY 2012/13 were 141 mb, up from 125 mb in the September 12th WASDE report, and up from the average pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb.  A third key finding was that U.S. wheat September 1st stocks in “new crop” MY 2013/14 were 1.855 billion bushels (bb), up from the average pre-report trade estimate of 1.938 bb.  The implication of this lower than expected amount of U.S. wheat on September 1st is that June-August 2013 was larger than expected, with summer 2013 livestock feeding being the likely category of greater than anticipated usage.  Grain sorghum stocks of 15 mb on September 1st in the U.S. were marginally larger than the USDA’s September 12th WASDE “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending stocks estimate of 13 mb, but equal to pre-report estimates. 

Small Grains 2013 Summary:  The Small Grains 2013 Summary report indicated a number of notable changes in U.S. wheat production from previous estimates by type and category.  However, these changes largely offset each other – leading to a small increase in total 2013 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections.   Wheat production in 2013 was estimated to be 2.128 bb, up from 2.114 bb in the September 12th Crop Production report, and up from average pre-report trade expectations of 2.121 bb.  Lower estimated U.S. hard red winter wheat production was more than offset by larger than expected production from soft red winter, white winter, other spring, and durum wheat types.

Resulting Changes in USDA and KSU Supply-Demand and Price Forecasts:  As a result of these September 30th reports, it is likely that the USDA will make changes in its October 11th Crop Production and WASDE reports.  It is anticipated that projected supplies and ending stocks of U.S. corn and soybeans will increase, with prices lowered for “new crop” MY 2013/14.  Conversely, projected usage of U.S. wheat is anticipated to increase for “new crop” MY 2013/14, with projected ending stocks and stocks-to-use likely to decrease – with projected prices increasing.

Forecasts of how the results of these September 30th reports are likely to impact USDA and KSU supply-demand and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2013/14 are provided for corn (Figure 1 and Table 1), soybeans (Figure 2 and Table 2), and wheat (Figure 3 and Table 3). 


I. U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks Report – September 30th

On September 30, 2013 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Quarterly Grain Stocks report from the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS).   Following is a report summary indicating the amount of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat and soybean stocks on September 1st along with grain disappearance during the June-August 2013 period.

I-A. U.S. Corn Stocks & Use

Old crop U.S. corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 824 million bushels (mb), down 16.7% from 989 mb of U.S. corn stocks on September 1, 2012.  The total of 824 mb was up 156 mb (up 23%) from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 668 mb, and above the upper end of the range of trade estimates of 552-765 mb.  The September 1st estimate of 824 mb was also above the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2012/13 marketing year U.S. corn ending stocks of 661 mb in the September 12th USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, with “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending on August 31, 2013.  This is the smallest amount of U.S. corn September 1st stocks since 426 mb on 9/1/1996, 883 mb on 9/1/1997, 958 mb on 9/1/2004, and 989 mb on 9/1/2011.

Of U.S. total corn stocks of 824 mb on September 1, 2013, 275 mb are stored on farms, down 12% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 549 mb, are down 19% from a year earlier.

The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance of U.S. corn is 1.94 billion bushels (bb), compared with 2.16 bb in June-August 2012, and is the smallest amount of U.S. corn June-August use since 1.90 bb in June-August 2003, and 1.871 bb in June-August 2000.  Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2013 time period, U.S. food, alcohol, and industrial usage equaled approximately 1.561 bb (versus the 2007-2011 average of 1.467 bb), with exports near 158 mb (vs the 5 year average of 472 mb), feed and residual use of near 220 mb (versus the 5 year average of 524 mb), with a marginal amount (1 mb) of seed use.

I-B. U.S. Grain Sorghum Stocks & Use

Old crop U.S. grain sorghum stocks stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 15.0 mb, down 34% from 23 mb on September 1, 2012.  The total of 15.0 mb was essentially equal to the average DTN survey pre-report trade estimate of 15.2 mb, and within the range of trade estimates of 10-21 mb.  The September 1st estimate of 15 mb was also marginally above the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2012/13 marketing year U.S. grain sorghum ending stocks of 13 mb in the September 12th USDA WASDE report, with “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending on August 31, 2013. 

On-farm stocks, at 602,000 bushels, are down 48% from last year.  Off-farm stocks, at 14.4 mb, are down 34% from September 1, 2012. The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance from all positions is 26.1 mb, down 27% from 36.0 mb in June-August 2012.

I-C. U.S. Soybean Stocks, Use, & Revised 2012 Production

Old crop U.S. soybeans stocks stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 141 mb, down 17% from 169 mb on September 1, 2012.  The total of 141 mb was up 15 mb (up 12%) from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 126 mb, but within the range of trade estimates of 112-155 mb.  The September 1st estimate of 141 mb was also above the equivalent estimate of “old crop” 2012/13 marketing year U.S. soybean ending stocks of 125 mb in the September 12th USDA WASDE report, with “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending on August 31, 2013.   This is the smallest amount of U.S. soybean September 1st stocks since 135 mb in MY 2008/09, 113 mb in MY 2003/04, 132 mb in MY 1996/97, and 103 mb in MY 1976/77.

Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 39.6 mb, up 3% from a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at 101.0 mb, are down 23% from last September.   

The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance of U.S. soybeans of 294 mb, compared with 503 mb in June-August 2012, and is the smallest amount of U.S. soybean June-August use since 299 mb in June-August 2004, 283 mb in June-August 1989, 292 mb in June-August 1985, and 296 mb in June-August 1984.  Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2013 time period, U.S. crush, seed & residual usage equaled approximately 244 mb (versus the 2007-2011 average of 357 mb), and exports near 50 mb (down from the 2007-2011 average of 151 mb).

2012 U.S. Soybean Production Revision: The USDA also indicated that “…based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2012 soybean production is revised to 3.034 bb, up 18.6 mb from the previous estimate.”  The USDA left 2012 U.S. soybean planted area unchanged at 77.198 million acres (ma), but harvested area is revised up 60,000 acres to 76.164 ma.  The 2012 U.S. soybean yield, at 39.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac), is up 0.2 bu/ac from the previous estimate.

I-D. U.S. Wheat Stocks & Use

All U.S. wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2013 totaled 1.854 bb, down 12% from 2.105 bb a year ago.  The total of 1.854 mb was down 83 mb (down 4%) from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 1.938 bb, but within the range of trade estimates of 1.819-2.085 bb.   The September 1st estimate of 1.854 bb is the smallest amount of U.S. wheat September 1st stocks since 1.858 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.717 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.751 bb in MY 2006/07, and 1.749 bb in MY 2002/03.

On-farm stocks are estimated at 547 mb, down 5% from last September.  Off-farm stocks, at 1.308 bb, are down 15% from a year ago.

The June - August 2013 indicated disappearance is 991 mb, up 10% from 932 mb in June-August 2012. Preliminary KSU calculations indicate that during the June-August 2013 time period, U.S. food usage equaled approximately 238 mb (versus the 2007-2011 average of 235 mb), with exports near 338 mb (up from the 2007-2011 average of 282 mb), feed and residual use near 414 mb (up from the 2007-2011 average of 300 mb – but less than 429 mb in June-August 2012), and with a small amount for seed use (1 mb).

II. U.S. Small Grains 2013 Summary Report – September 30th

On September 30, 2013 the USDA also released its Small Grains 2013 Summary report from NASS.   A number of notable changes in U.S. wheat production estimates were made by type and category, but these changes largely offset each other – leading to a small increase in total 2013 U.S. wheat production from previous USDA projections.  U.S. wheat production estimates were provided for all U.S. wheat types combined (i.e., “All Wheat”), winter wheat, hard red winter wheat, soft red winter wheat, white winter wheat, other spring wheat, and durum wheat, as well as for U.S. oats and barley.

II-A. U.S. All Wheat Production

United States’ all wheat production totaled 2.128 billion bushels (bb) in 2013, down 6.2% from 2.266 bb in 2012, but up 6.4% from 1.999 bb in 2011.  The total of 2.128 bb was up 0.3% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 2.121 bb, and within the range of trade estimates of 2.095-2.137 bb.  The estimate of 2.128 bb for 2013 was also up from 2.114 bb projected in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. all wheat planted area totaled 56.156 million acres (ma) in 2013, up from both 55.666 ma in 2012, and from 54.409 ma in 2011. This estimate of 56.156 ma planted was down from 56.530 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.  U.S. all wheat harvested area totaled 45.177 ma in 2013, down 8% from 48.921 ma in 2012 and down from 45.705 ma in 2011.  This estimate of 45.177 ma harvested was down from 45.730 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.  The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for all U.S. wheat was 80.4%, 87.9%, and 84.0% in 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively.

The U.S. average all wheat yield in 2013 is estimated at a record high of 47.1 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 0.8 bu/ac from the previous record of 46.3 bu/ac in both 2010 and 2012, and from 43.7 bu/ac in 2011.   This estimate of 47.1 bu/ac yield was up from 46.2 bu/ac in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.  

II-B. U.S. Winter Wheat Production

United States’ Winter Wheat production totaled 1.534 bb in 2013, down 6.7% from 1.642 bb in 2012, but up 2.7% from 1.494 bb in 2011.  The total of 1.534 bb was down 1.1% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 1.552 bb, and within the range of trade estimates of 1.529-1.610 bb.  The estimate of 1.534 bb for 2013 was down from 1.542 bb projected in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. winter wheat planted area totaled 43.090 ma in 2013, up from both 41.224 ma in 2012, and from 40.646 ma in 2011. This estimate of 43.090 ma planted was up from 42.697 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. winter wheat harvested area totaled 34.402 ma in 2013, down from 34.734 ma in 2012, but up from 32.314 ma in 2011. This estimate of 34.402 ma harvested was up from 32.207 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. winter wheat was 79.8%, 84.3%, and 79.5% in 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively.

The U.S. average winter wheat yield in 2013 is estimated at 47.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 0.1 bu/ac from the 47.3 bu/ac in 2012, and from 46.2 bu/ac in 2011.   This estimate of 47.4 bu/ac yield was down from 47.8 bu/ac in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.  

II-C. U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Production

HRW Wheat production totaled 744 mb in 2013, down 25.9% from 1.004 bb in 2012.  The total of 744 mb was down 6.1% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 792 mb, and below the lower end of the range of trade estimates of 782-805 mb.  The estimate of 744 mb for 2013 was down from 791 mb projected in the September 16th USDA Wheat Outlook report.

II-D. U.S. Soft Red Winter (SRW) Wheat Production

SRW Wheat production totaled 565 mb in 2013, up 34.5% from 420 mb in 2012.  The total of 565 mb was up 3.7% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 545 mb, and above the upper end of the range of trade estimates of 542-555 mb.  The estimate of 565 mb for 2013 was up from 542 mb projected in the September 16th USDA Wheat Outlook report.

II-E. U.S. White Winter (WW) Wheat Production

WW Wheat production totaled 225 mb in 2013, up 1.5% from 222 mb in 2012.  The total of 225 mb was up 4.8% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 215 mb, but within the range of trade estimates of 205-250 mb.  The estimate of 225 mb for 2013 was up from 209 mb projected in the September 16th USDA Wheat Outlook report.

II-F. U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production

Other spring wheat production totaled 532 mb in 2013, down 1.9% from 542 mb in 2012.  The total of 532 mb was up 4.5% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 509 mb, and above the upper end of the range of trade estimates of 465-530 mb.  The estimate of 532 mb for 2013 was also up from 511 mb projected in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. other spring wheat planted area totaled 11.596 ma in 2013, down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and from 12.394 ma in 2011.  This estimate of 11.596 ma planted was down from 12.295 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. other spring wheat harvested area totaled 11.354 ma in 2013, down from both 12.055 ma in 2012, and from 12.079 ma in 2011.  This estimate of 11.354 ma harvested was down from 11.958 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. other spring wheat was 97.9%, 98.1%, and 97.5% in 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively.

The U.S. average other spring wheat yield in 2013 is estimated at 46.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 1.8 bu/ac from the 45.0 bu/ac in 2012, and up sharply from 37.7 bu/ac in 2011.   This estimate of 46.8 bu/ac yield was up sharply from 42.8 bu/ac in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.  

II-F. U.S. Durum Wheat Production

Durum wheat production totaled 61.5 mb in 2013, down 25.0% from 82.8 mb in 2012, but up from 50.5 mb in 2011.  The total of 61.5 mb was up 2.5% from the average Dow Jones survey pre-report trade estimate of 60.0 mb, and within the range of trade estimates of 56-63 mb.  The estimate of 61.5 mb for 2013 was up from 60.2 mb projected in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.

U.S. durum wheat planted area totaled 1.470 ma in 2013, up from 2.153 ma in 2012, but above from 1.369 ma in 2011.  This estimate of 1.470 ma planted was down from 1.538 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   U.S. durum wheat harvested area totaled 1.421 ma in 2013, down from 2.132 ma in 2012, but up from 1.312 ma in 2011.  This estimate of 1.421 ma harvested was down from 1.502 ma in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   The U.S. percent (%) harvested-to-planted for U.S. durum wheat was 96.7%, 99.0%, and 95.9% in 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively.

The U.S. average durum wheat yield in 2013 is estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 4.5 bu/ac from the 38.8 bu/ac in 2012, and up from 38.5 bu/ac in 2011.  This estimate of 43.3 bu/ac yield was up from 43.3 bu/ac in the September 12th USDA Crop Production report.   

II-G. U.S. Oat Production

U.S. oat production is estimated at 66.0 mb, up 3% from 64.0 mb in 2012, and up from 53.6 mb in 2011.   U.S. oat production of 66.0 mb is the third lowest production on record.   

U.S. oat planted acres are estimated at 3.010 ma in 2013, up from 2.760 ma in 2012, and from 2.496 ma in 2011. U.S. oat harvested area for grain of 1.031 ma is down from 1.045 ma in 2012, but up from 939,000 acres in 2011.  Oats harvested acreage for grain of 1.031 ma in 2013 is the second lowest on record – above only 939,000 acres 2011.

Oat yield is estimated at 64.0 bu/ac, up 2.7 bushels from 61.3 bu/ac in 2012, and up from 57.1 bu/ac in 2011.  

II-H. U.S. Barley Production

Barley production is estimated at 215 million bushels, down 2 percent from 2012.  Producers seeded 3.48 million acres in 2013, down 4 percent from last year.   Harvested area, at 3.00 million acres, is down 8 percent from 2012.  Average yield per acre, at 71.7 bushels, is up 3.8 bushels from the previous year.

III. Impact of Reports on U.S. Corn, Soybean & Wheat Market Outlook

In the following figures and tables are updated and adjusted projections  by Kansas State University based on the information provided by the USDA in the September 30th Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains 2013 Annual Summary reports.  The approach taken here was to adjust the September 12th USDA WASDE and Kansas State University supply-demand balance sheets and price projections with the new information provided in the September 30th USDA reports.  The adjustments made to the September 12 USDA projections are the responsibility of this author alone, and do not represent the USDA’s official adjustments to be released in the upcoming October 11th USDA WASDE reports.

III-A. Impacts on U.S. Corn Supply-Demand and Prices

Updated projections of U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and prices for “old crop” MY 2012/13 and “new crop” MY 2013/14 are given in Figure 1 and Table 1.  With the increase in “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending stocks to 824 mb from 661 in the September 12th WASDE report, it seems likely that the ending stocks-to-use estimates for both “old” and “new” crop marketing years will increase at least marginally, and that price projections would be expected to decline.  The details of these changes along with KSU probability weighted scenarios are provided in Table 1.  

Anticipated declines in U.S. planted and harvested corn acreage due to spring 2013 planting problems are reflected in the KSU “Likely Yield-Production” and “Low Yield-Production” scenarios.

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74-Projected 2013/14                                

III-B. Impacts on U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand and Prices

Updated projections of U.S. soybean ending stocks-to-use and prices for “old crop” MY 2012/13 and “new crop” MY 2013/14 are given in Figure 2 and Table 2.  With the increase in “old crop” MY 2012/13 ending stocks to 141 mb from 125 in the September 12th WASDE report, it seems likely for soybeans as for corn that the ending stocks-to-use estimates for both “old” and “new” crop marketing years will increase at least marginally, and that price projections would be expected to decline.  The details of these changes along with KSU probability weighted scenarios are provided in Table 2.

As for corn, anticipated declines in U.S. planted and harvested soybean acreage due to spring 2013 planting problems are reflected in the KSU “Likely Yield-Production” and “Low Yield-Production” scenarios.

Figure 2. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 through MY 2013/14      

III-C. Impacts on U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand and Prices

Updated projections of U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and prices for “old crop” MY 2012/13 and “new crop” MY 2013/14 are given in Figure 3 and Table 3.  With the largely unanticipated / lower than expected amount of September 1st U.S. wheat stocks of 1.855 mb, it is likely that the USDA will increase its projection of feed and total usage, and lower its projection of ending stocks from  the September 12th WASDE report in “new crop” MY 2013/14.  All else being equal, the USDA’s price projections for U.S. wheat in MY 2013/14 would be expected to increase.  The details of these changes along with KSU probability weighted scenarios are provided in Table 3.

Unlike for corn and soybeans it is likely that no further changes will be made in U.S. planted and harvested wheat acreage in the USDA’s October 11th Crop Production report – given the adjustments that have already been made in the September 30th  Small Grains 2013 Summary.

Figure 3. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 through MY 2013/14      

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2012/13 – “New Crop” MY 2013/14
(Estimated USDA WASDE adjustments in response to September 30, 2013 Grain Stocks Report & KSU Projections for “New Crop” MY 2013/14)

Item

USDA

Sept WASDE

9/12/2013

“Old Crop” 2012/13

USDA

Adjusted Sept 2013 WASDE

“Old Crop” 2012/13

USDA

Sept WASDE

9/12/2013

“New Crop” 2013/14

USDA

Adjusted Sept 2013 WASDE

 “New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Low Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Likely Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

High Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

15%

65%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

97.2

97.2

97.4

97.4

93.8

94.7

97.4

Harvested Area (million acres)

87.4

87.4

89.1

89.1

85.9

86.7

89.1

% Harvested/Planted Area

89.9%

89.9%

91.5%

91.5%

91.5%

91.5%

91.5%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

123.4

123.4

155.3

155.3

149.0

154.0

156.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beginning Stocks

989

989

661

*824

824

824

824

Production

10,780

10,780

13,843

13,843

12,794

13,354

13,905

Imports

162

162

25

25

75

25

10

Total Supply

11,929

11,929

14,530

*14,693

13,693        

14,203

14,793

Ethanol for fuel Use

4,665

4,665

4,900

4,900

4,850

4,875

4,910

Non-ethanol Food, Seed & Industrial Use

1,395

1,395

1,450

1,450

1,420

1,440

1,450

Exports

735

735

1,225

*1,300

1,110

1,313

1,375

Feed & Residual Use

4,475

*4,312

5,100

5,100

4,950

4,975

5,096

Total Use

11,270

*11,107

12,675

*12,750

12,330

12,603

12,831

Ending Stocks

661

*824

1,855

*1,943

1,363

1,600

1,962

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

5.87%

*7.42%

14.64%

*15.23%

11.05%

12.70%

15.29%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$6.90

$6.90

$4.40-$5.20

($4.80)

*$4.25-$5.05

*($4.65)

$5.25-$6.25

($5.75)

$4.80-$5.80

($5.20)

$4.25-$5.25

($4.75)

* KSU estimates of USDA adjustments to September 2013 USDA WASDE report U.S. corn supply-demand.  Not accounting for possible changes in planted and harvested acreage (See KSU estimates for MY 2013/14 in last three columns on the left of the table)

Table 2. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2012/13 – “New Crop” MY 2013/14
(Estimated USDA WASDE adjustments in response to September 30, 2013 Grain Stocks Report & KSU Projections for “New Crop” MY 2013/14)

Item

USDA

Sept WASDE

9/12/2013

“Old Crop” 2012/13

USDA

Adjusted Sept 2013 WASDE

“Old Crop” 2012/13

USDA

Sept WASDE

9/12/2013

“New Crop” 2013/14

USDA

Adjusted Sept 2013 WASDE

 “New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Low Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Likely Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

High Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

25%

70%

5%

Planted Area (million acres)

77.2

77.198

77.2

77.2

75.5

76.1

77.2

Harvested Area (million acres)

76.1

76.164

76.4

76.4

74.7

75.3

76.4

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.6%

98.6%

98.96%

98.96%

98.96%

98.96%

98.96%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.6

39.8

41.2

41.2

39.0

41.2

41.2

 

 

Beginning Stocks

169

169

125

*141

141

141

141

Production

3,015

*3,034

3,149

3,149

2,914

3,104

3,147

Imports

40

40

15

15

40

20

15

Total Supply

3,224

*3,243

3,289

*3,305

3,095

3,265

3,303

Domestic Crushings

1,690

1,690

1,655

1,655

1,575

1,640

1,655

Exports

1,315

1,315

1,370

1,370

1,275

1,360

1,370

Seed

90

90

87

87

90

90

90

Residual

5

5

28

28

9

9

7

Total Use

3,099

3,099

3,140

3,140

2,950

3,099

3,122

Ending Stocks

125

*141

150

*165

145

166

181

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.03%

*4.55%

4.78%

5.26%

4.37%

5.36%

5.80%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$14.40

$14.40

$11.50-$13.50

($12.50)

$11.25-$13.25

($12.25)

$13.40-$14.40

($13.90)

$12.00-$13.00

($12.50)

$11.50-$12.50

($12.00)

* KSU estimates of USDA adjustments to September 2013 USDA WASDE report U.S. soybean supply-demand.  Not accounting for possible changes in planted and harvested acreage (See KSU estimates for MY 2013/14 in last three columns on the left of the table)

Table 3. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2012/13 – “New Crop” MY 2013/14
(Estimated USDA WASDE adjustments in response to September 30, 2013 Grain Stocks Report & KSU Projections for “New Crop” MY 2013/14)

Item

USDA

Sept WASDE

9/12/2013

“New Crop” 2013/14

USDA

Adjusted Sept 2013 WASDE

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Likely Yield-Production

“New Crop” 2013/14

KSU

Likely Prodn-  High Exports

“New Crop” 2013/14

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

85%

15%

Planted Area (million acres)

56.5

56.156

56.156

56.156

Harvested Area (million acres)

45.7

45.177

45.177

45.177

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

80.9%

80.4%

80.9%

80.9%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

46.2

47.1

47.1

47.1

 

 

Beginning Stocks

718

718

718

718

Production

2,114

2,128

2,128

2,128

Imports

140

140

140

140

Total Supply

2,962

2,986

2,986

2,986

Food Use

958

958

958

958

Seed Use

73

73

73

73

Exports

1,100

1,100

1,050

1,150

Feed & Residual

280

375

375

375

Total Use

2,411

2,506

2,456

2,556

Ending Stocks

561

480

530

430

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

23.26%

19.15%

21.60%

16.82%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$6.50-$7.50

($7.00)

$6.35-$8.35

($7.85)

$6.95-$7.95

($7.45)

$8.00-$9.00

($8.50)

* KSU estimates of USDA adjustments to September 2013 USDA WASDE report U.S. wheat supply-demand.  Not accounting for possible changes in planted and harvested acreage (See KSU estimates for MY 2013/14 in last three columns on the left of the table)

 

Dan O'Brien
Extension Grain Economist
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
dobrien@ksu.edu
 
Department of Agricultural Economics   K-State Research & Extension   College of Agriculture   Kansas State University