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USDA June 30th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Implications

July 7, 2014


Summary

On June 30th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.   The 2014 Acreage report provided the second actual survey-based information by the USDA on U.S. farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014, following the March 31st Prospective Plantings report.  The Quarterly June 1st 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans, and other major crops in their respective 2013/14 marketing years.  As a result of these June 30th USDA reports, adjustments are likely occur to in the upcoming July 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – particularly for “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. soybean and grain sorghum supply-demand balances and prices.     

The Acreage report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.641 million acres (ma), down marginally from pre-report trade expectations, and down from 95.365 ma in 2013, and the record high of 97.155 ma in 2012.  Forecast harvested acres of corn in 2014 of 83.839 ma were down from 87.375 – 87.668 ma the previous two years.  Planted acres of soybeans in 2014 were forecast to be a record high 84.839 ma, above the top end of the pre-report average trade estimates, and up from 76.533 ma in 2013 and 77.198 ma in 2012.  Expected 2014 plantings of other spring wheat of 12.709 ma were also above the top end of the pre-report trade estimates, and up from 11.596 ma in 2013, and 12.289 ma in 2012.  Projected planted acres of grain sorghum in 2014 are 7.471 ma, up 790,000 acres from the 3/31 Prospective Plantings estimate, but down from 8.061 ma in 2013, while up from 6.244 ma in 2012.  Harvested acres of grain sorghum in 2014 of 6.399 ma are projected to be down from 6.530 ma in 2013, but up from 6.244 ma in 2012. 

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on June 1st were 3.854 billion bushels (bb), up from 2.766 bb a year ago.  Corn use during March-May 2014 was 3.154 bb, up from 2.634 bb in Mar-May 2013 and 2.886 bb in Mar-May 2012.  Projected U.S. soybean stocks on June 1st were 405 mb, down from 435 mb a year ago.  Soybean use during March-May 2014 was 589 mb, up from 563 mb in Mar-May 2013, but down from 712 mb in Mar-May 2012.  Projected U.S. wheat stocks on June 1st were 590 mb, down from 718 mb a year ago.  Wheat use during March-May 2014 was 467 mb, down from 517 mb in Mar-May 2013, and down from 486 mb in Mar-May 2012.  Projected U.S. grain sorghum stocks on June 1st were 92 mb, up from 42 mb a year ago.  Grain sorghum use during March-May 2014 was 83 mb, up from 50 mb in Mar-May 2013, and from 50 mb in Mar-May 2012.

As a result of these reports, KSU supply-demand balance and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 were adjusted from early June projections.  The U.S. 2014 corn production forecast was lowered slightly due to lower planted acreage, while higher planted acreage for soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat led to higher 2014 crop production forecasts.   For U.S. corn prices, the KSU “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely” scenario was lowered $0.20 to $4.20 per bu from a month ago.  The “likely” KSU soybean price forecast outcome in “new crop” MY 2014/15 was lowered $0.75 to $9.25 per bu.  For U.S. wheat prices, the KSU “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely” scenario outcome was lowered $0.95 down to $6.55 per bu from a month ago.  

Barring unforeseen major crop production problems in the U.S., South America, the Black Sea region, China, Australia, or other major grain importing and/or exporting regions of the World, grain and oilseed prices are likely to continue to move lower into fall 2014 until or unless either a) lower prices of grains encourage demand, b) weather problems and associated crop production losses occur among the World’s major grain producing or using countries, or c) international geopolitical conflicts support grain markets.

A. U.S. 2014 Crop Acreage in the 6/30/2014 Acreage Report

U.S. Corn Planted & Harvested Acreage

The USDA Acreage report forecast 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.641 million acres (ma), down 84,000 acres from the average pre-report trade estimate, and down 50,000 acres from the USDA’s earlier March 31st Prospective Plantings report forecast of 91.691 ma (Table 1).   This projection of 91.641 ma of 2014 U.S. corn plantings is down 3.724 ma (down 3.9%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, and also down 5.514 ma (down 5.7%) from the record high of 97.155 ma in 2012. 

The USDA also forecast 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.839 ma, which is down from the record high 87.668 ma in 2013, and also down the near record high of 87.375 ma in 2012 (Table 2).   The percentage of harvested-to-planted acres for U.S. corn is projected to be 91.5% in 2014, compared to 91.9% in 2013, and 89.9% in 2012.

U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage

Projected 2014 U.S. soybean planted acreage was a record high 84.839 ma, up 2.685 ma (up 3.3%) from the average pre-report trade estimate, and bigger than the top end of the pre-report range of trade estimates of 84.000 ma.  This amount of 84.839 ma was also up 3.346 ma (up 4.1%) from the USDA’s earlier March 31st Prospective Plantings report forecast of 81.493 ma (Table 1).  This projection of 84.839 ma of 2014 U.S. soybean plantings is up 8.306 ma (up 10.9%) from 76.533 ma in 2013, and also up 7.641 ma (up 9.9%) from the record high of 77.198 ma in 2012. 

The USDA also forecast 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be a record high 84.058 ma, which is up from 75.869 ma in 2013, and also up from 76.164 ma in 2012 (Table 2).   The percentage of harvested-to-planted acres for U.S. soybeans is projected to be 99.1% in 2014, compared to 99.1% in 2013, and 98.7% in 2012.

U.S. Grain Sorghum Planted & Harvested Acreage

Projected 2014 U.S. grain sorghum planted acreage was projected to be 7.471 ma, up 781,000 acres (up 11.7%) from the average pre-report trade estimate, and bigger than the top end of the pre-report range of trade estimates of 6.730 ma.  This amount of 7.471 ma was also 790,000 acres (up 11.6%) from the USDA’s earlier March 31st Prospective Plantings report forecast of 6.681 ma (Table 1).  This projection of 7.471 ma of 2014 in U.S. grain sorghum plantings is down 590,000 acres (down 7.3%) from 8.061 ma in 2013, but is up 1.227 ma (up 19.7%) from 6.244 ma in 2012. 

The USDA also forecast 2014 U.S. grain sorghum harvested acreage to be 6.399 ma, which is down from 6.530 ma in 2013, but up from 4.955 ma in 2012 (Table 2).  The percentage of harvested-to-planted acres for U.S. grain sorghum is projected to be 82.7% in 2014, compared to 81.0% in 2013, and 79.4% in 2012.

U.S. Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage

The USDA Acreage report forecast 2014 U.S. All Wheat planted acreage to be 56.474 ma, up 656,000 acres (up 1.2%) from the average pre-report trade estimate, and is up nearly the same amount from the USDA’s earlier March 31st Prospective Plantings report forecast of 55.815 ma (Table 1).   This forecast of 56.474 ma in 2014 U.S. All Wheat plantings is up 318,000 acres (up 0.6%) from 56.156 ma in 2013, and also up 808,000 acres (up 1.5%) from 55.666 ma in 2012. 

The USDA also forecast 2014 U.S. All Wheat harvested acreage to be 46.240 ma, which is up from 45.157 ma in 2013, but down from 48.991 ma in 2012 (Table 2).   The percentage of harvested-to-planted acres for U.S. All Wheat acres is projected to be 81.9% in 2014, compared to 80.4% in 2013, and 88.0% in 2012.

By category or type of wheat, projected 2014 U.S. winter wheat planted acreage was projected to be 42.296 ma, up 128,000 acres from trade estimates, and up 289,000 acres from the 3/31 USDA Prospective Planting forecast of 42.007 ma, while also being down from 43.090 ma in 2013, and up from 41.224 ma in 2013.  Of this total, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat planted acreage was projected at 30.4 ma (versus 29.57 ma and 29.77 ma in 2013 and 2012, respectively), Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat at 8.50 ma (versus 10.02 ma and 8.12 ma in 2013 and 2012, respectively), and White Winter (WW) wheat at 3.41 ma. 

Projected 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage was 12.709 ma, up 849,000 acres from trade estimates, and larger than the upper end of the pre-report range of estimates (i.e., 12.200 ma).   This amount of 12.709 ma is up 1.113 ma (up 9.6%) from 11.596 ma in 2013, and up 420,000 acres (up 3.4%) from 12.289 ma in 2012.  Of this total, Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat made up 12.0 ma (vs. 10.94 ma last year, and 11.69 ma in 2012).  Projected 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage was 1.469 ma, down 321,000 acres (down 17.9%) from trade estimates, and below the lower end of the pre-report range of trade estimates (i.e., 1.694 ma).   This amount of durum wheat planted acres is comparable to 1.421 ma in 2013, and 2.153 ma in 2012.

U.S. Planted & Harvested Acreage for Cotton & Sunflowers

The USDA projected that U.S. 2014 cotton planted acreage would be 1.753 ma, up from a forecast of 11.101 ma in the 3/31 USDA Prospected Planting report, and from 10.407 ma planted in 2013, but down from 12.314 ma planted in the U.S. in 2012. 

The USDA also projected that U.S. 2014 All Sunflower planted acreage would be 1.705 ma, up from a forecast of 1.592 ma in the 3/31 USDA Prospected Planting report, and up from 1.575 ma planted in 2013, but down from 1.919 ma planted in the U.S. in 2012.  By type, the USDA forecast that U.S. 2014 Oil-type Sunflower planted acreage would be 1.337 ma, up from 1.279 ma planted in 2013, but down from 1.658 ma planted in the U.S. in 2012.   The USDA also forecast that U.S. 2014 Non Oil-type Sunflower planted acreage would be 368,000 acres, up from 297,000 acres planted in 2013, and up from 261,000 acres planted in the U.S. in 2012. 

B. U.S. Grain Stocks & Grain Use in the 6/30/2014 Quarterly Stocks Report

The quarterly Grain Stocks report provided estimates of stocks for major U.S. grains in both on-farm and off-farm storage as of June 1st, 2014, as well as the total amount of U.S. grain usage during the three month March through May 2014 quarter (Tables 3 & 4).   Generally, no significant market surprises came out in this quarterly stocks report. 

U.S. Corn Stocks & March-May Use

U.S. corn stocks on June  1, 2014 of 3.854 billion bushels (bb) were 132 million bushels (mb) more than average pre-report trade estimates – but within the pre-report range of estimates of 3.046 to 3.950 bb (Tables 3 & 5).  Corn stocks in the U.S. of 3.854 bb on 6/1/2014 were up 1.087 bb or 39.3% from 2.766 bb on June 1st 2013, up 22.4% from 3.148 bb on 6/1/2012, and up 5.0% from 3.670 bb on 6/1/2011. 

As a consequence of the larger than expected June 1st U.S. corn stocks projection, estimated March-May 2014 quarterly corn usage of 3.154 bb was 130 mb less than implicitly expected according to pre-report trade estimates (Tables 4 & 5).   March-May 2014 U.S. corn usage of 3.154 bb is up from 2.634 bb during March-May 2013, and 2.886 bb during March-May 2012 (Table 4).  It is estimated that corn use during the March-May 2014 time period was characterized by a) historically strong exports, b) the highest amount of feed and residual use in 4 years, and c) moderating-to-average levels of corn for food, alcohol and industrial usage (Table 5).  

U.S. Soybean Stocks & March-May Use

U.S. soybean stocks on June  1, 2014 of 405 million bushels (mb) were 27 mb more than average pre-report trade estimates – but within the pre-report range of estimates of 334 to 440 mb (Tables 3 & 6).  Soybean stocks in the U.S. of 405 mb on 6/1/2014 were a 34 year low (since 336 mb on 6/1/1977), and were down from 435 mb on 6/1/2013, 668 mb on 6/1/2012, and 619 mb on 6/1/2011. 

As a consequence of the moderately larger than expected June 1st U.S. soybean stocks projection, estimated March-May 2014 quarterly soybean usage of 589 mb was 25 mb less than implicitly expected according to pre-report trade estimates (Tables 4 & 6).   March-May 2014 U.S. soybean usage of 589 mb is up from 563 mb during March-May 2013, but down from 712 mb during March-May 2012 (Table 4).  It is estimated that soybean use during the March-May 2014 time period was characterized by a) stronger than expected exports that were up sharply from the record low of last year, but still the 2nd lowest in eight (8) years, b) average-to-below average crush, seed and residual use relative to the last three (3) March-May period (i.e., 2011-2013) (Table 6). 

U.S. Wheat Stocks & March-May Use

U.S. wheat stocks on June  1, 2014 of 590 mb were 8 mb less than average pre-report trade estimates – but within the pre-report range of estimates of 560 to 633 mb (Tables 3 & 7).  Wheat stocks in the U.S. of 590 mb on 6/1/2014 were down from 718 mb on 6/1/2013, 743 mb on 6/1/2012, and 862 mb on 6/1/2011. 

Estimated March-May 2014 quarterly wheat usage of 467 mb was 50 mb less than implicitly expected according to pre-report trade estimates (Tables 4 & 7).   March-May 2014 U.S. wheat usage of 467 mb is down from 517 mb during March-May 2013, 486 mb during March-May 2012, and 585 mb in March-May 2011 (Tables 4 & 7).  It is estimated that wheat use during the March-May 2014 time period was characterized by a) average expected food use, b) the lowest exports in four (4) years for the March-May period (Table 7). 

U.S. Grain Sorghum Stocks & March-May Use

U.S. grain sorghum stocks on June  1, 2014 of 92 mb were 12 mb more than average pre-report trade estimates – and larger than the upper end of the pre-report range of estimates of 73 to 87 mb (Table 3).  Grain sorghum stocks in the U.S. of 92 mb on 6/1/2014 were up from 41 mb on 6/1/2013, 59 mb on 6/1/2012, and 80 mb on 6/1/2011. 

Estimated March-May 2014 quarterly grain sorghum usage of 83 mb was 10 mb less than implicitly expected according to pre-report trade estimates (Table 4).   March-May 2014 U.S. grain sorghum usage of 83 mb is up from 50 mb during March-May 2013, and 50 mb during March-May 2012, but is less than 91 mb in March-May 2011 (Table 4).  

 

Further explanation of U.S. corn, wheat and soybean usage by specific categories is available in explanatory notes with Table 5 (U.S. corn), Table 6 (U.S. soybeans), and Table 7 (U.S. wheat).

D. Updated KSU U.S. Corn Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

Given the June 30th USDA Acreage report projections of 2014 U.S. corn acreage – probability forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand and price scenario have been updated, and presented here.   No further adjustments were made in the USDA June 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection of “current” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. corn supply-demand balances because there was only a small variance from pre-report expectations in the June 30th USDA June 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks report.    

Table 8 shows U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet and price scenarios from MY 2008/09 through USDA and KSU forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Updated U.S. corn acreage scenarios – accounting for the historic forecast uncertainty of the USDA Acreage reports – are presented in Figure 1. The June 11th USDA and updated KSU 2014 U.S. corn yield projections are presented in Figure 2.  Probability-weighted KSU price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 for U.S. corn are presented in Figure 3, with a historic chart of U.S. corn prices versus U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use shown in Figure 4.  The probabilities associated with the various U.S. corn price scenarios represent the best judgment of the author as of early July, 2014.  The updated and adjusted USDA projections are the sole responsibility of this author, and do not necessarily represent modified projections by the USDA.

Updated USDA and KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn production and “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are as follows: 

a) “Adjusted” USDA Scenario7/3/2014: 91.641 ma planted, 83.839 ma harvested, 91.5% harvested-to-planted acres, 165.3 bu/ac yield, a 13.858 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.385 bb total use, 1.649 bb ending stocks, 12.32% S/U, & $3.90 /bu; 

b) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 90.816 ma planted, 82.677 ma harvested, 91.0% harvested-to-planted acres, 150.0 bu/ac yield, a 12.402 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 12.638 bb total use, 950 mb ending stocks, 7.52% S/U, & $6.00 /bu; 

c) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 91.641 ma planted (i.e., equal to the USDA Acreage report forecast), 83.839 ma harvested, 91.0% harvested-to-planted acres, 159.4 bu/ac yield, a 13.298 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.175 bb total use, 1.299 bb ending stocks, 9.86% S/U, & $4.20 /bu; and

d) KSU “High Production” Scenario: 25% prob. of 92.466 ma planted, 84.179 ma harvested, 91.0% harvested-to-planted acres, 164.4 bu/ac yield (historic U.S. maximum), a 13.839 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.425 bb total use, 1.590 bb ending stocks, 11.84% S/U, & $3.95 /bu. 

D. Updated KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

Given the June 30th USDA Acreage report projections of 2014 U.S. soybean acreage – probability forecasts of U.S. soybean supply-demand and price scenario have been updated, and presented here.   No further adjustments were made in the USDA June 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection of “current” 2013/14 marketing year U.S. soybean supply-demand balances due to there being only a small variation from pre-report expectations following from the June 30th USDA June 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks report.   

Table 9 shows U.S. soybean supply-demand balance sheet and price scenarios from MY 2008/09 through USDA and KSU forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Updated U.S. soybean acreage scenarios – accounting for the historic forecast uncertainty of the USDA Acreage reports – are presented in Figure 5. The June 11th USDA and updated KSU 2014 U.S. soybean yield projections are presented in Figure 6.  Probability-weighted KSU price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 for U.S. soybeans are presented in Figure 7, with a historic chart of U.S. soybean prices versus U.S. soybean percent stocks-to-use shown in Figure 8.  The probabilities associated with the various U.S. soybean price scenarios represent the best judgment of the author.  The updated and adjusted USDA projections are the sole responsibility of this author, and do not necessarily represent modified projections by the USDA.

Updated USDA and KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean production and “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are as follows: 

a) “Adjusted” USDA Scenario7/3/2014: 84.839 ma planted, 84.058 ma harvested, 99.1% harvested-to-planted acres, 45.2 bu/ac yield, a 3.799 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.450 bb total use, 489 mb ending stocks, 14.17% S/U, & $8.75 /bu; 

b) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 83.906 ma planted, 82.851 ma harvested, 98.7% harvested-to-planted acres, 40.0 bu/ac yield, a 3.314 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.245 bb total use, 224 mb ending stocks, 6.90% S/U, & $10.50 /bu; 

c) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 84.839 ma planted (i.e., equal to the USDA Acreage report forecast), 83.772 ma harvested, 98.7% harvested-to-planted acres, 43.0 bu/ac yield, a 3.602 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.330 bb total use, 417 mb ending stocks, 12.52% S/U, & $9.25 /bu; and

d) KSU “High Production” Scenario: 25% prob. of 85.778 ma planted, 84.694 ma harvested, 98.7% harvested-to-planted acres, 44.3 bu/ac yield (historic U.S. maximum), a 3.752 bb 2014 U.S. soybean crop, 3.420 bb total use, 472 mb ending stocks, 13.80% S/U, & $8.50 /bu. 

F. KSU U.S. Wheat Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

Just as for corn and soybeans, given the June 30th USDA Acreage report projections of 2014 U.S. wheat acreage – probability forecasts of U.S. wheat supply-demand and price scenario have been updated, and presented here.   However, unlike for corn and soybeans, some adjustments were made in the USDA June 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection of “current” 2013/14 marketing year to reflect the results of the June 30th USDA June 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks report.   

Table 10 shows U.S. wheat supply-demand balance sheet and price scenarios from MY 2008/09 through USDA and KSU forecasts for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Updated U.S. wheat acreage scenarios – accounting for the historic forecast uncertainty of the USDA Acreage reports – are presented in Figure 9. The June 11th USDA and updated KSU 2014 U.S. wheat yield projections are presented in Figure 10.  Probability-weighted KSU price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 for U.S. wheat are presented in Figure 11, with a historic chart of U.S. wheat prices versus U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use shown in Figure 12.  The probabilities associated with the various U.S. wheat price scenarios represent the best judgment of the author.  The updated and adjusted USDA projections are the sole responsibility of this author, and do not necessarily represent modified projections by the USDA.

Updated USDA and KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat production and “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are as follows:  

a) “Adjusted” USDA Scenario7/3/2014: 56.474 ma planted, 46.240 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested-to-planted acres, 42.3 bu/ac yield, a 1.942 bb 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 925 mb in exports, 2.121 bb total use, 571 mb ending stocks, 26.92% S/U, & $6.65 /bu; 

b) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 30% prob. of 55.488 ma planted, 45.433 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested-to-planted acres, 40.2 bu/ac yield, a 1.827 bb 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 900 mb in exports, 2.031 bb total use, 536 mb ending stocks, 26.39% S/U, & $6.70 /bu; 

c) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 56.474 ma planted (i.e., equal to the USDA Acreage report forecast), 46.240 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested-to-planted acres, 42.3 bu/ac yield, a 1.942 bb 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 925 mb in exports, 2.086 bb total use, 576 mb ending stocks, 27.61% S/U, & $6.55 /bu;     and

d) KSU “Likely Production – High Exports” Scenario: 10% prob. of 56.474 ma planted, 46.240 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested-to-planted acres, 42.3 bu/ac yield, a 1.942 bb 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 1.100 bb in exports, 2.261 bb total use, 401 mb ending stocks, 17.73% S/U, & $8.50 /bu. 

 

Table 1. USDA U.S. Acreage Report Planted Acreage Estimates (Released on June 30, 2014)

Crop Acreage

USDA U.S.

2014 Planted Crop Acres

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Average

USDA less Average Trade Estimate

% USDA of Average Trade Est.

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Minimum

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Maximum

2014 Prospective Plantings Mar. 31, 2014

2014 Acreage vs. Prospective Plantings Report Acres

% 2014 Acreage / Prospective Plantings Report Acres

     

 

Million acres

Million acres

Million acres

Percent (%)

Million acres

Million acres

Million acres

Million acres

Percent (%)

     

U.S. Corn

91.641

91.725

(0.084)

99.9%

91.000

92.200

91.691

(0.050)

99.9%

     

U.S. Soybean

84.839

82.154

+2.685

103.3%

80.500

***(>) 84.000

81.493

+3.346

104.1%

 

 

 

U.S. Grain Sorghum

7.471

6.690

+0.781

111.7%

6.650

***(>) 6.730

6.681

+0.790

111.8%

 

 

 

U.S. All Wheat

56.474

55.818

+0.656

101.2%

54.800

57.700

55.815

+0.659

101.2%

     

U.S. Winter Wheat

42.296

42.168

+0.128

100.3%

42.606

42.900

42.007

+0.289

100.7%

     

U.S. Other Spring Wheat

12.709

11.860

+0.849

107.2%

10.500

***(>) 12.200

12.009

+0.700

105.8%

     

U.S. Durum Wheat

1.469

1.790

(0.321)

82.1%

***(<) 1.694

1.900

1.799

(0.330)

81.7%

     

U.S. Upland Cotton

11.369

na

   

na

na

11.101

+0.268

102.4%

     

U.S. Canola

1.753

na

 

 

na

na

1.348

+0.405

130.0%

     

U.S. Sunflowers

1.705

na

 

 

na

na

1.592

+0.113

107.1%

     

 

Table 2. USDA U.S. Acreage Report Planted & Harvested Acreage Estimates: 2014 versus Previous Years

Crop Acreage

2014 Planted Acres

2014 Harvested Acres

2014 Percent %  Harvested to Planted

2013 Planted Acres

2013 Harvested Acres

Percent 2013 % Harvest to Planted

2012 Planted Acres

2012 Harvested Acres

Percent 2012 % Harvest to Planted

     

 

Million acres

Million acres

%

Million acres

Million acres

%

Million acres

Million acres

Percent (%)

     

U.S. Principal Crops

330.508

 

 

324.800

98.3% of 2014

 

 

326.251

98.7% of 2014

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Corn

91.641

83.839

91.5%

95.365

104.1% of 2014

87.668

91.9%

97.155

106.0% of 2014

87.375

89.9%

     

U.S. Soybeans

84.839

84.058

99.1%

76.533

90.2% of 2014

75.869

99.1%

77.198

91.0% of 2014  

76.164

98.7%

 

 

 

U.S. Cotton

11.369

na

 

10.407

91.5% of 2014

7.544

72.5%

12.314

108.3% of 2014 

9.371

76.1%

 

 

 

U.S. Grain Sorghum

7.471

6.399

82.7%

8.061

123.4% of 2014

6.530

81.0%

6.244

83.6% of 2014 

4.955

79.4%

 

 

 

U.S. All Wheat

56.474

46.240

81.9%

56.156

99.4% of 2014

45.157

80.4%

55.666

98.6% of 2014 

48.991

88.0%

     

U.S. Winter Wheat

42.296

32.419

76.6%

43.090

101.9% of 2014

32.419

75.2%

41.224

97.5% of 2014 

34.734

84.3%

     

U.S. Other Spring Wheat

12.709

12.403

97.6%

11.596

91.2% of 2014

11.334

97.7%

12.289

96.7% of 2014 

12.055

98.1%

     

U.S. Durum Wheat

1.469

1.418

96.5%

1.470

100.1% of 2014

1.421

96.7%

2.153

146.6% of 2014 

2.132

99.0%

     

 

Table 3. USDA June 1st U.S. Grain Stocks Estimates versus a) Pre-report Trade Estimates, and b) June 1, 2013 Grain Stocks

U.S. June 1st Grain Stocks

by Major Crop

U.S. Grain Stocks on June 1, 2014

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Average

USDA less Average Trade Estimate

% USDA of Avg. Trade Estimate

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Minimum

Pre-report Trade Estimates: Maximum

U.S. Grain Stocks on June 1, 2013

June 1st 2014 less June 1st 2013

Percent June 1st 2014 / June 1st 2013

 

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Percent (%)

Billion bushels

Billion bu

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Percent (%)

U.S. Corn

3.854

3.722

+0.132

103.5%

3.046

3.950

2.766

+1.087

139.3%

U.S. Soybeans

0.405

0.378

+0.027

107.2%

0.334

0.440

0.435

(0.029)

93.2%

U.S. All Wheat

0.590

0.598

(0.008)

98.6%

0.56

0.633

0.718

(0.128)

82.1%

U.S. Sorghum

0.092

0.080

+0.012

115.4%

0.073

**(>) 0.087

0.041

+0.051

224.5%

U.S. Oats

0.024

na

 

 

na

na

0.036

(0.012)

68.0%

U.S. Barley

0.082

na

 

 

na

na

0.080

+0.002

102.0%

 

Table 4. USDA March-May 2014 U.S. Grain Use Estimates versus a) March-May 2013 Use, b) March-May 2012 Use.

U.S. March-May

Grain Use by Major Crop

U.S. March-May 2014 Grain Use

Implied Pre-report Trade Estimates: Average

USDA less Implied Avg March-May Trade Estimate

% USDA of Implied Avg March-May Trade Estimate

U.S. March-May 2013 Grain Use Estimate

March-May 2014 less March-May 2013

% March-May 2014 / March-May 2013

U.S. March-May 2012 Grain Use Estimate

March-May 2014 less March-May 2012

% March-May 2014 / March-May 2012

 

Billion bu

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Percent (%)

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Percent (%)

Billion bushels

Billion bushels

Percent (%)

U.S. Corn

3.154

3.284

(0.130)

96.1%

2.634

+0.521

119.8%

2.886

+0.268

109.3%

U.S. Soybeans

0.589

0.614

(0.025)

95.9%

0.563

+0.025

104.5%

0.712

(0.123)

82.7%

U.S. All Wheat

0.467

0.547

(0.080)

85.4%

0.517

(0.050)

90.4%

0.486

(0.019)

96.1%

U.S. Sorghum

0.083

0.093

(0.010)

89.7%

0.050

+0.033

165.5%

0.050

+0.033

166.9%

 

Table 5.  U.S. Corn Quarterly Balance Sheet

Text Box: Using a) June 30th USDA U.S. Corn Quarterly Stocks ests., b) March-May 2014 usage ests., c) KSU ests. of Mar-May 2014 U.S. corn exports (615 mb) (USDA Foreign Ag Service) and d) Food-Alcohol-Industrial use (1.554 bb) (from U.S. EIA data and historic % wet corn milling-to-ethanol use), it is calculated that U.S. corn feed and residual usage in Dec-Feb 2014 is near 963 million bushels.
 
Consequently the following would hold true:
 
1) March-May 201414 Food, Alcohol & Industrial use of 1.554 bb is up from 1.554 bb last year, but down from 1.607 bb & 1.618 bb in Mar-May 2012 & Mar-May 2011, respectively.
2) March-May 2014 Exports of 615 mb are up from the record low of 185 mb last year, but above the range of 401-510 mb the 2 previous years.
3) March-May 2014 Feed & Residual use of 963 mb is up from 920 mb last year, and up from 715-859 mb over the 2 previous years.
4) March-May 2014 Total Use of 3.154 bb is up from 2.674 bb last year, and up from 2.864-2.886 bb over the 2 previous years.
 
 
 
(As of 7/1/2014 with KSU estimates for March – May 2014 Usage by Category) 

 

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

 

September 1 Beginning Stocks

1,708

1,128

989

821

 

Production

12,447

12,360

10,780

13,925

 

TOTAL MKTG YEAR SUPPLY

14,182

13,517

11,932

14,781

 

Q1: September-November

       

 

      Q1 Imports

5

4

35

14.15

 

      Q1 Total Supplies

174,160

13,491

11,804

14,760

 

Food, alcohol & industrial

1,582

1,612

1,468

1,561

 

Export

452

406

221

347

 

Feed, residual

2,069

1,826

2,082

2,426

 

TOTAL USE

4,103

3,844

3,771

4,334

 

December 1 stocks

10,057

9,647

8,033

10,453

 

Q2: December-February

 

 

      Q2 Imports

9

4

48

7

 

      Q2 Total Supplies

10,065

9,651

8,080

10,459

 

Food, alcohol & industrial

1,577

1,640

1,435

1,602

 

Export

403

444

163

398

 

Feed, residual

1,562

1,543

1,082

1,454

 

TOTAL USE

3,542

3,627

2,681

3,454

 

March 1 stocks

6,523

6,023

5,400

7,008

 

Q3: March-May

KSU import & use estimates for March-May 2014

 

      Q3 Imports

10

11

40

 

      Q3 Total Supplies

6,534

6,034

5,440

7,008 

 

Food, alcohol & industrial

1,618

1,607

1,546

1,554 

 

Export

510

401

185

615 

 

Seed use

20

23

22

22 

 

Feed, residual

715

859

920

963 

 

TOTAL USE

2,864

2,886

2,674

3,154

 

June 1 stocks

3,670

3,148

2,766

3,854

 

Q4: June-August

       

 

      Q4 Imports

4

11

40

 

 

      Q4 Total Supplies

3,673

3,159

2,806

 

 

Food, alcohol & industrial

1,625

1,554

1,561

 

 

Export

465

291

162

 

 

Seed use

3

1

1

 

 

Feed, residual

453

328

247

 

 

TOTAL USE

2,546

2,170

1,982

 

 

August 31 Ending Stocks

1,128

989

821

1,146

 

Marketing Year Totals

       

 

      MY Imports

28

29

162

35

 

      MY Total Supplies

14,182

13,517

11,932

14,781

 

Food, alcohol & industrial

6,403

6,404

6,027

6,412

 

Export

1,830

1,543

731

1,900

 

Seed use

23

25

24

23

 

Feed, residual

4,799

4,557

4,329

5,300

 

TOTAL USE

13,055

12,528

11,111

13,635

 

         

 

 

Table 6.  U.S. Soybean Quarterly Balance Sheet

Text Box: Using a) June 30th USDA U.S. Soybean Quarterly Stocks ests., b) March-May 2014 usage ests., c) KSU ests. of Mar-May 2014 U.S. soybean exports (186 mb) (USDA Foreign Ag Service) it is calculated that U.S. soybean crush, seed and residual usage in Mar-May 2014 is near 402 million bushels.
 
Consequently the following holds true:
1) March-May 2014 Crush, Seed & Residual use of 402 mb is down from 446 mb last year, and down from 408-456 mb over the 2 previous years.
2) March-May 2014 Exports of 186 mb are up from a 10 year low of 125 mb last year, but are less than the range of 225-257 mb the two previous years.
3) March-May 2014 Total Use of 589 mb is up from 571 mb last year, but less than 633-712 mb over the 2 previous years.
 
 
 
(As of 7/1/2014 with KSU estimates for March – May 2014 Usage by Category) 

 

 

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

 

September 1 stocks

151

215

169

141

 

Production

3,329

3,094

3,034

3,289

 

TOTAL MKTG YEAR SUPPLY

3,495

3,325

3,239

3,450

 

Q1: September-November

 

     

 

Q1: Imports

4

3

4

12

 

Q1: Total Supplies

3,484

3,311

3,207

3,441

 

Crush, Seed & Residual

588

517

623

626

 

Exports

618

425

618

661

 

Total Use

1,206

941

1,241

1,288

 

December 1 stocks

2,278

2,370

1,966

2,154

 

Q2: December-February

 

 

Q2: Imports

5

3

5

10

 

Q2: Total Supplies

2,283

2,373

1,971

2,164

 

Crush, Seed & Residual

481

519

447

445

 

Exports

553

479

526

725

 

Total Use

1,034

999

973

1,170

 

March 1 stocks

1,249

1,375

998

994

 

Q3: March-May

 KSU import & use estimates for March-May 2014

 

Q3: Imports

3

5

8

 

Q3: Total Supplies

1,252

1,380

1,006

994 

 

Crush, Seed & Residual

408

456

446

402 

 

Exports

225

257

125

186 

 

Total Use

633

712

571

589 

 

June 1 stocks

619

668

435

405

 

Q4: June-August

 

     

 

Q4: Imports

3

5

19

 

 

Q4: Total Supplies

622

672

454

 

 

Crush, Seed & Residual

301

299

263

 

 

Exports

106

204

51

 

 

Total Use

407

503

313

 

 

August 31st (Sept 1) stocks

215

169

141

125

 

Marketing Year Totals

 

     

 

MY Imports

14

16

36

90

 

MY Total Supplies

3,495

3,325

3,239

3,519

 

Crush

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,700

 

Exports

1,501

1,365

1,320

1,600

 

Seed, feed & residual

130

88

90

95

 

Total Use

3,280

3,155

3,099

3,395

 

                           

 


 

 

Table 7. U.S. Wheat Quarterly Balance Sheet

Text Box: Using a) June 30th USDA U.S. Wheat Quarterly Stocks ests., b) March-May 2014 usage ests., c) KSU ests. of March-May 2014 U.S. wheat imports exports (247 mb) (USDA Foreign Ag Service) and d) Food use (231 mb) (a “myopic” forecast from Dec-Feb 2013), it is calculated that U.S. wheat feed and residual usage in March-May 2014 is a negative 27 million bushels.
 
Consequently the following holds true:
 
1) March-May 2014 Food use of 231 mb is essentially equal to the average of 233.3 mb over the last three years.
2) March-May 2014 Exports of 247 mb is down sharply from 312 mb, 301 mb, and 407 mb the 3 previous years.
3) March-May 2014 Feed & Residual use of negative 27 mb is essentially equal to minus 16 mb last year, and negative as were the previous 2 years ago.
4) March-May 2014 Total Use of 467 mb is down from 547 mb last year, and 486-585 mb over the 2 previous years.
 
 
 

 

(As of 6/30/2014 with KSU estimates for March - May 2014 Usage by Category)  

 

 

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

June 1 stocks

976

862

743

718

Production

2,207

1,999

2,266

2,130

TOTAL MKTG. YEAR SUPPLY

3,279

2,974

3,131

3,018

Q1: June-August

       

      Q1: Imports

27

21

25

35

      Q1: Total Supply

3,210

2,882

3,034

2,882

Food

235

230

238

237

Seed

2

5

1

5

Export

265

295

264

359

Feed, residual

259

206

426

412

TOTAL USE

760

736

929

1,012

September 1 stocks

2,450

2,147

2,105

1,870

Q2: September - November

       

      Q2: Imports

24

32

33

47

      Q2: Total Supply

2,473

2,179

2,137

1,916

Food

242

244

247

253

Seed

52

51

55

52

Export

311

238

197

314

Feed, residual

(63)

(17)

(32)

(165)

TOTAL USE

540

516

467

454

December 1 stocks

1,933

1,663

1,671

1,475

Q3: December - February

 

      Q3: Imports

23

30

35

40

      Q3: Total Supply

1,956

1,693

1,705

1,515

Food

221

231

225

229

Seed

1

1

1

1

Export

308

217

234

227

Feed, residual

0

43

10

2

TOTAL USE

531

493

470

460

March 1 stocks

1,425

1,199

1,235

1,056

Q4: March-May

KSU import & use estimates for Mar-May 2014

      Q4: Imports

22

29

30

0

      Q4: Total Supply

1,448

1,228

1,265

1,056

Food

228

236

236

231

Seed

16

19

15

16

Export

407

301

312

247

Feed, residual

(67)

(71)

(16)

(27)

TOTAL USE

585

486

547

467

May 31 (June 1st) stocks

862

743

718

589

Marketing Year Totals

       

      MY Imports

97

112

123

170

      MY Total Supplies

3,279

2,974

3,131

3,018

Food

926

941

945

950

Seed

71

76

73

74

Export

1,291

1,051

1,007

1,147

Feed, residual

129

162

388

222

TOTAL USE

2,417

2,231

2,414

2,393


 

Table 8. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15  (June 11, 2014 USDA WASDE, June 30, 2014  Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports, & KSU Projections for the 2014/15 Marketing Year)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

USDA

June 11, 2014 2013/14

USDA

Acreage Report

(KSU Adjusted)

2014/15

KSU Est.

Lower Production

2014/15

KSU Est.

Expected Production

2014/15

KSU Est.

Higher Production

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

60%

25%

Planted Area (million acres)

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.2

95.4

91.641

90.816

91.641

92.466

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.6

79.5

81.4

84.0

87.4

87.7

83.839

82.677

83.428

84.179

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

91.5%

91.0%

91.0%

91.0%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.4

158.8

165.3

150.0

159.4

164.4

 

 

Beginning Stocks

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,146

1,146

1,146

1,146

Production

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,780

13,925

13,858

12,402

13,298

13,839

Imports

14

8

28

29

162

35

30

40

30

30

Total Supply

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,932

14,781

15,034

13,588        

14,474

15,015

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,648

5,050

5,050

4,900

5,000

5,050

Non-ethanol Food, Seed & Industrial Use

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,403

1,385

1,385

1,325

1,375

1,400

Exports

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

731

1,900

1,700

1,375

1,550

1,700

Feed & Residual Use

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,329

5,300

5,250

5,038

5,250

5,275

Total Use

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,111

13,635

13,385

12,638

13,175

13,425

 

 

Ending Stocks

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,146

1,649

950

1,299

1,590

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.38%

8.40%

12.32%

7.52%

9.86%

11.84%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.45-$4.65

($4.55)

*$3.40-$4.40

*($3.90)

$5.50-$6.50

($6.00)

$3.70-$4.70

($4.20)

$3.45-$4.45

($3.95)


 

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Acreage for 2000-2013 Plus 2014 USDA & KSU Projections

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2013 Plus 2014 Projections

Text Box: 1973-2013 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.81 bu + 1.80 bu/year
Trend Yield for 2014 = 159.4 bu/acre

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 thru “New Crop” 2014/15 (KSU)                                

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Current” MY 2014/15)    
(June 11th USDA WASDE, June 30th Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Reports, & KSU Forecasts)

Text Box: USDA: “Next Crop” 2014/15
12.3% S/U, $3.90 /bu (with KSU Adjustments)
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: KSU: “Next Crop” 2014/15
9.9% S/U, $4.20 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96

Table 9. U.S. Soybean Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2007/08 through KSU Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15                       
(June 11th USDA WASDE Report + June 30th USDA Acreage Report)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

USDA

June 11, 2014 2013/14

USDA

Acreage Report

(KSU Adjusted)

2014/15

KSU Est.

Lower Production

2014/15

KSU Est.

Expected Production

2014/15

KSU Est.

Higher Production

2014/15

Percent Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

60%

25%

Planted Area (million acres)

75.7

77.5

77.4

75.0

77.2

76.5

84.839

83.906

84.839

85.778

Harvested Area (million acres)

74.7

76.4

76.6

73.8

76.2

75.9

84.058

82.851

83.772

84.694

% Harvested-to-Planted acres

98.6%

98.6%

99.0%

98.3%

98.6%

99.1%

99.1%

98.7%

98.7%

98.7%

Yield per harvested acre (bu/ac)

39.7

44.0

43.5

41.9

39.8

43.3

45.2

40.0

43.0

44.3

 

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks

205

138

151

215

169

141

125

125

125

125

Production

2,967

3,359

3,329

3,094

3,034

3,289

*3,799

3,314

3,602

3,752

Imports

13

15

14

16

36

90

15

30

20

15

Total Supply

3,185

3,512

3,495

3,325

3,239

3,519

*3,939

3,469

3,747

3,892

Domestic Crushings

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703

1,689

1,700

1,715

1,650

1,675

1,715

Exports

1,279

1,499

1,501

1,365

1,320

1,600

1,625

1,500

1,550

1,600

Seed

90

90

87

90

89

95

92

90

90

90

Residual

16

20

43

-2

1

0

18

5

15

15

Total Use

3,047

3,361

3,280

3,155

3,099

3,395

3,450

3,245

3,330

3,420

Ending Stocks

138

151

215

169

141

145

*489

224

417

472

% Ending Stocks-to-Total Use

4.53%

4.49%

6.55%

5.36%

4.55%

4.37%

*14.17%

6.90%

12.52%

13.80%

U.S. Average Farm Price ($/bu)

$9.97

$9.59

 

$11.30

$12.50

$14.40

$13.10

*$7.75-$9.75

*($8.75)

$10.00-$11.00

($10.50)

$8.75-$9.75

($9.25)

$8.00-$9.00

($8.50)

 

Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Planted & Harvested Acreage (2004-2014) with 2014 KSU Projections

Figure 6. U.S. Soybean Yield Trend (1973-2014) and KSU 2014 Projections

Text Box: 2014 Trend Yield = 44.3 (1973-2013 Series)
43.5 bu/ac

Figure 7. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 – “New Crop” 2014/15                   
(June 11th USDA WASDE & NASS June 30th Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Reports, with KSU projections for “New crop” MY 2014/15)