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May 17, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… d “bearish” short sale aggregate
position of Managed Money (Spec) traders that began in January 2019 and trended to record bearish
levels in April.
That market prospects for U.S. corn declined during the January – early May period is in evidence
from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports during this time.
The USDA increased its projected U.S. corn ending stocks‐to‐use from 11.85% in January to 14.45% in
May 2019 for the “current crop” 2018/19 marketing year for U.S. corn. During that time the only
changes affecting U.S. corn supply‐demand balances were adjustments on the usage side – with
market expectations for U.S. corn use declining. The U.S. corn projected season average price
declined $0.10 per bushel from $3.60 in February down to $3.50 per bushel in the May WASDE
report.
Crop revenue insurance coverage levels are an additional important factor to consider in
assessing the impact of low U.S. corn futures prices during the January through early May 2019
period. The planning price for corn crop revenue insurance in year 2019 in Kansas was determined by
taking the average of DEC 2019 Corn futures during the month of February 2019. The calculated corn
planning price for crop revenue insurance in Kansas for conventional (non‐high amylose) corn was
$4.00 per bushel.
To the degree that U.S.‐China trade conflicts may have led to lower DEC 2019 corn futures prices
during the February period, then Kansas and U.S. corn producers’ 2019 crop revenue insurance
planning prices and revenue coverage are lower than would have occurred otherwise. In a year with
significant 2019 crop production risk to date, negative effects on U.S. corn producers’ crop insurance
revenue coverage levels are likely to be a critically important factor.
…
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
Washington
state had tested positive for BSE.
Regulatory Response … surveillance efforts and announced that they
would conduct … requiring the creation of positions
to age animals using postmortem …
March 8, 2024
International Grain Markets
University
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GHA - News and information noted below …