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Displaying 1731 - 1740 of 7942
Census Acres
1000 - 1999 (24 Farms)500 - 999 (11Farms)
Income and Expense Analysis
Beef1 … 16,8767,977
Value of Farm Production21 $327,438$255,464
Hired … Taxes38 1,5451,036
General Farm Insurance39 8,5284,428
Utilities40 …
Census Acres
1000 - 1999 (25 Farms)500 - 999 (8Farms)
Income and Expense Analysis
Beef1 … 24,4569,769
Value of Farm Production21 $279,138$206,895
Hired … Taxes38 1,0491,645
General Farm Insurance39 9,0285,148
Utilities40 …
Census Acres
1000 - 1999 (7 Farms)500 - 999 (5Farms)
Income and Expense Analysis
Beef1 … 16,98810,323
Value of Farm Production22 $337,542$331,879
Hired … Taxes39 1,4901,105
General Farm Insurance40 8,7995,258
Utilities41 …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… The recent upward trend in the relative value of the U.S. dollar began in earnest after the dollar index was
valued at 77.5510 in August 2014. This upward trend continued throughout the remainder of 2014 and 2015
into early 2016 – with the index climbing to a high of 95.4259 in December 2016 (up 23.05% from August
2014). Since then the index has declined 8.8%, falling to a monthly average low of 87.029 in September 2017.
A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major World currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they
would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in
U.S. grain markets). Although this is not the only factor that had been negatively affecting U.S. grain exports, it
is a very important one – working against U.S. corn and especially wheat from being affordable, competitive
alternative export alternatives in the World grain trade. Conversely, the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar
relative to other World currencies since April 2017 has helped U.S. corn exports.
II. U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield, Production & Total Supplies
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. corn supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2008/09 through “new crop”
MY 2017/18 period. Table 1a focuses exclusively on “new crop” MY 2017/18 with the October 12th USDA
projection plus alternative possible market scenarios from Kansas State University. United States’ corn
harvested and planted acreage for the year 2000 – projected 2017 period are shown in Figure 4, with U.S. corn
yields for 2005‐2017 shown in Figure 5.
United States’ corn production & total supplies for the 2006/07 through projected “new crop” 2017/18
marketing years are shown in Figure 6. Table 1 and Figures 4‐6 illustrate the growth in U.S. corn production
and total supplies since the drought‐impacted short crop year of MY 2012/13, and the most recent forecast by
the USDA of moderate (1.9%) decline in U.S. corn supplies in “new crop” MY 2017/18 from the previous year.
II‐a. U.S. Corn Planted Acres
In the October 12th Crop Production and WASDE reports, 2017 U.S. corn planted acres are projected to be
90.429 million acres or ‘ma’. This projection of 90.886 ma for 2017 is down 3.575 ma (down 3.8%) from 94.004
ma of 2016, and compares to 88.019 ma in 2015, 90.597 ma in 2014, 95.365 ma in 2013, the record high of
97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The USDA’s forecast scenario for “new crop”
2017 U.S. corn harvested acres of 90.429 ma given a 75% probability of occurring by Kansas State University
Extension (KSU Extension Ag Economist Daniel O’Brien).
An alternative KSU projection of “new crop” 2017 U.S. corn planted acres of 90.404 ma (25.0 million acres
less than USDA and accounting for Farm Service Agency 2017 reported acres through early October adjusted
for prevented plantings) are estimated to have a combined 25% probability of occurring (Table 1a).
Page | 8
Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2017/18 as of the October 12, 2017 USDA WASDE report
Item …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 4
I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. November 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On November 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its November 2017
Crop Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements
and farmer surveys conducted between October 25th and November 6th to estimate expected U.S. corn yields
as of November 1st. The objective yield surveys for corn were conducted in the major producing states for
approximately 75% of U.S. corn production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA
enumerators, recording number of corn plants and ears, and ear weights in order to calculate the projected
2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these biological
yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August, September and October USDA NASS Crop
Production reports were revisited for the November report. The November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production
report was based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and harvested yield reports, and
actual in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions for fields remaining to be harvested. A final USDA NASS
Crop Production Summary report with an estimate of 2017 U.S. corn production will be reported on January
12, 2018.
I‐b. CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17
¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of $3.44 ¼ on
August 31st, $3.42 ½ on October 12th, and $3.36 ¼ on Nov. 16th ‐ before closing at $3.45 on November 21st.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to
lows of $3.71 on August 31, 2017, $3.72 ½ on September 12th, $3.71 ½ on November 9th, and $3.65 on
November 16‐17 ‐ before closing at $3.72 ¼ on November 21st.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Tuesday, December 21st was $0.27 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $3.72 ½ for JULY 2018 Corn less $3.45 for DEC 2017
Page | 5
Corn), or $0.0389 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to commercial grain storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as
$0.06 per bushel per month in adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or
other discounts.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of November 21, 2017) …
August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
Grain and soybeans stored on and off farms (January, March, July, September)– … Stocks of grain in on farm storage – Livestock inventories
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Importance of January Crop Reports
• … Machinery costs are very important. But also other costs, including seed, fertilizer, chemicals, labor.
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Somewhat higher yields and prices for higher profitability farms.
Lower variable costs (s …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Grain and soybeans stored on and off farms (January, March, July, September)– … Stocks of grain in on farm storage – Livestock inventories
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Importance of January Crop Reports
• … Machinery costs are very important. But also other costs, including seed, fertilizer, chemicals, labor.
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
K‐State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Somewhat higher yields and prices for higher profitability farms.
Lower variable costs (s …
November 2, 2023
Meat Demand Research Studies
0.478
Self‐Indicated Familiarity with Farming Not Familiar Not familiar …
Family Living
18,564
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-7,005 -8,268 -6,008
Deductible … 8,268 -6,008
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-32,675 -4,908 -17,2 … Expense
-32,675 -4,908 -17,283
Non-Farm Income
$31,157 $88,332 $53,689 …
Family Living
17,284
Non-Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-6,199 -16,452 -7,074
Deductible … 16,452 -7,074
Deductible Non-Farm Expense
-11,928 -822 -4,717 … Expense
-11,928 -822 -4,717
Non-Farm Income
$69,802 $61,292 $67,584 …