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March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Market Considerations for Winter‐Spring 2018
First, although the corn market is likely to be responsive to any early season 2018 U.S. corn production
threats, the anticipation of large beginning stocks of 2.000‐2.100 bb for “new crop” MY 2018/19 will likely
“mitigate” of “soften” the immediate price response of the market – more‐so than if beginning stocks were
down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If no significant production risk emerges in summer 2018, then these large “old crop”
MY 2017/18 carryover ending stocks will limit 2018 corn crop forward pricing prospects.
Second, low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling
production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, the USDA has so far projecting at least “moderate” continued strength in U.S. corn exports of 1.900
bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 – with this number likely increasing IF South American corn production
prospects continue to suffer. United States’ corn export shipments had been “slow” to date in the current
marketing year, but have increased markedly in recent weeks. The USDA maintains its optimism for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. corn exports because of a) low U.S. corn prices to date, b) expectations of significantly
tighter foreign stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing
South American corn exports in spring 2018.
Current forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 94.5 million metric tons (mmt) in this
marketing year – versus 98.5 mmt last year ‐ with harvests lasting from February through May. However,
forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production to be 36.0 mmt in this marketing year – versus 41.0 mmt a
year ago ‐ with harvests lasting from March through May. The Argentina production figure is at risk to falling
further. To the degree that 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil is limited by crop weather
issues, there will likely be subsequent support U.S. corn export prospects.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecasts
In the March 8th WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.604 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016, and b) “old crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of
16.947 bb – up marginally from a year earlier. Total use is forecast at 14.820 bb – raised 225 mb from the
February WASDE on prospects for a) higher ethanol use of 5.575 bb (raised 50 mb), and b) higher exports of
2.225 bb (raised 175 mb). Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.127 bb (14.35% Stocks/Use) – down 225 mb
from February, and down from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected
to average $3.35 /bu (range of $3.15‐$3.55). This is down $0.01 /bu from $3.36 /bu from MY 2016/17.
At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23, 2018, the USDA forecast that a)
2018 U.S. corn production would be 14.390 bb – based on 90.0 million acres (ma) planted, 82.7 ma harvested,
and a yield of 174.0 bu. Total use is forecast at 14.520 bb – with projections of ethanol use at 5.650 bb (a
record high), non‐ethanol food seed and industrial use at 1.495 bb (also a record high), exports of 1.900 bb
(down 325 mb from the current marketing year), and feed and residual use of 5.475 mb (down 75 mb from this
year). After a KSU‐adjustment for lower beginning stocks based on the March 8th WASDE report, ending stocks
are projected to be a 2.047 bb (14.10% Stocks/Use) – with both being down moderately from “old crop” MY
2017/18 levels. United States’ corn prices are projected to average a KSU‐adjusted $3.45 /bu (up $0.05‐$0.10
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from this year). It is probable that the export projection for “new crop” MY 2018/19 may be raised in coming
months due to South American production problems – causing these ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use
estimates to tighten further. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2018/19. These projections are to show how varying 2018 U.S. corn production outcomes could affect U.S.
corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.605 bb production, 16.782 bb total supplies, 14.600 bb total use, 2.182 bb ending
stocks, 14.95% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.596 bb production, 15.773 bb total supplies, 14.315 bb total use, 1.458 bb ending stocks, 10.19%
S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price;
6. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,041.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.1% from the record of 1,075.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 973.45 mmt in MY 2015/16. World
corn total supplies of 1,273.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are forecast to be down moderately from the
record high 1,290.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 155.9 mmt are projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 2.4% from the record
high of 159.8 mmt in MY 2016/17, and up 30.2% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World corn ending
stocks of 199.2 mmt (18.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 231.9 mmt (21.9%
S/U) in MY 2016/17, and from 215.0 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn
ending stocks of 145.1 mmt (17.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from 173.6 mmt (21.9% S/U) in
MY 2016/17, and from 170.9 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.6 mmt
(14.35% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down from 131.1 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2016/17, but up from 104.2
mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct
influence are projected to be approximately 22% lower (i.e., 14.35% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus
18.5% S/U for the “World” overall in “old crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 43.4% in MY 2016/17, and down to 39.9% in “old
crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions
may eventual increase Chinese import demand for U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
September 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… ly 12,000 producers
were interview during the survey period with inquiries mad … corn yield. The objective yield
surveys were conducted in major producing states accounting for 75 percent of U.S. corn production in recent
years. The USDA reported corn plant populations and number of ears per acre in the report, and also
measured pounds per ear in its effort to figure corn production at the state and national level.
On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY 2014/15.
The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat
marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015. Information in the upcoming
September 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY
2013/14 U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the September 11th USDA Reports
The “new crop” DECEMBER 2014 corn futures market contract responded in a moderately negative
manner to the information in the September11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Thursday,
September 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) DEC 2014 corn futures prices opened at the high for the day
at $3.45 ½ per bushel, and traded as low as $3.35 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.41 – down $0.04
¾ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
Figure 1. DEC 2014 and MAY 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)
…
November 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… ly 10,300 producers
were interview during the survey period with inquiries mad … 4 corn yields. The
objective yield surveys were conducted in major producing states usually accounting for about 80 percent of
U.S. corn production in recent years. The USDA reported corn plant populations, number of ears per acre, and
row widths, in the Crop Production report, and also measured ears per acre versus implied ear weight in its
effort to accurately project U.S. corn production at the state and national levels.
On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 as well as for “new crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The
“old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn
marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the November 11th USDA Reports
The “new crop” DECEMBER 2014 corn futures market contract responded in a moderately positive
manner to the information in the November 10th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Monday,
November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DEC 2014 corn futures prices opened at $3.66 per
bushel, and traded in a range of $3.64 ¾ ‐ $3.78 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.69 ¼ – up $0.01 ¾
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, DEC 2014 has traded from a low of $3.65 ½
on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of $3.89 on Thursday, November 13th before closing at $3.77 ½ on
Monday, November 17th.
Figure 1. DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
January 8, 2025
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
July through December 2024. Survey responses were weighted
to … https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-
mea … monthly-
meat-demand-monitor-survey-data …
July 12, 2024
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the authors found … nationally representative NHANES survey has not
been conducted since … policy/industry efforts to curtail livestock GHG
emissions, and the economic …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
weather?
Drought can cause livestock producers to reduce their … Agricultural Statistical Survey 2014 (Density of beef cattle …
January 29, 2021
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between July and … report. Data from over 12,000 survey respondents are
used to …
August 20, 2012
2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
08/09/12Livestock Marketing Information Center … 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
03/21/12Livestock Marketing Information Center … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2006-
010
2011
2012
G-NP-30
08/13/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
corn
planting difficulties, 2) summer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding.
Then when t … DA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risk. The corn market has
been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY
2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.335 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb.
Second, it is anticipated that low prices for U.S. corn will continue to help maintain strong usage for
domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are
expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American
corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage will be lower due to low prices and poor
profitability in 2017 – which may have a positive effect on U.S. corn exports and price prospects later in 2018.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ummer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn milling, exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding.
DEC 2017 corn … … ame time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.4%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. October 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On October 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its October 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October 2017 Crop
Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements and
farmer surveys conducted between Septembe …