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June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
S.
farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to‐date as both
winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on‐farm storage space, 2)
continued stronger‐than‐anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or
exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and
other commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal
Reserve affecting U.S. interest rates, or crucial foreign economic occurrences such as the European Union vote
on British membership. For the early part of “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S.
dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop were significant limiting factors for U.S. corn
exports – although developing crop problems in Brazil and declines in the value of U.S. dollar since early
February 2016 have coincided with improved U.S. corn exports in May‐June 2016.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn
supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16. While the estimate of 2015 U.S. corn
production of 13.601 billion bushels (bb) was unchanged, and total supplies of 15.392 bb for MY 2015/16 were
up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports. Total use is projected to be 13.685 bb – up 100 million
bushels (mb) due to a 100 mb increase in projected exports – up to 1.825 bb. Ethanol use (5.250 bb), non‐
ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use (1.360 bb), and feed and residual use (5.250 bb) were all
unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 95 mb to 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
down from 1.731 bb (12.59% S/U) in MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.60‐$3.80 /bu. ($3.70 midpoint) versus $3.70 in MY
2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn
plantings would equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately
85.893 ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
forecast to be a record high 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
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With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.178 bb (record high), total use of 14.170 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.008 bb (14.17% S/U) – up from 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 and the highest since 2.114 bb (19.83% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $3.20‐$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50 /bu) – being down from the $3.70 /bu midpoint
estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 million acre (ma) downward
adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU
“Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested,
164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.902 bb production, 15.745 bb total supplies, 13.762 bb total use, 1.983 bb ending
stocks, 14.41% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17; B) KSU “Lower Acres –
Moderate Drought” Scenario (25% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac
yield, 13.352 bb production, 15.200 bb total supplies, 13.622 bb total use, 1.578 bb ending stocks, 11.58% S/U,
& $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price; and C) KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (20% prob.) assumes:
92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.676 bb production, 14.529 bb total supplies,
13.257 bb total use, 1.270 bb ending stocks, 9.58% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. corn price “new crop” MY 2016/17.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,011.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 966.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down marginally from 1,013.5 mmt
in MY 2014/15. World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from
1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,189.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of
133.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but
down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt (20.25% S/U) in “new
crop” MY 2016/17 are down from 206.45 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the record
high of 208.4 mmt (21.25% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
…
Breakout Sessions
decisions.
Included in a survey to assess farmers’ willingness … issues. Another part of the survey asked them which conservation … Introduction
` Objectives
` Survey
` Results
` Conclusion …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. May 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On May 10th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its May 2016 Crop
Production report – containing U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage, yield and production forecasts for 2016 –
with information specific to the 2016 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and
white winter (WW) wheat crops.
The NASS 2016 U.S. winter wheat production forecast was derived by USDA using a combination of a) an
objective yield survey, and b) a farmer operator survey – both conducted during …
October 22, 2020
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
years, operating a crop or livestock farm has become highly dependent … fertilizer, to feed for livestock—with greater precision … Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) (McFadden,
2017 …
May 1, 2003
Livestock & Meat Demand
Design.....................................................................................5
Section 4: Survey Responses .........................................................................................7 … domestically produced EU steaks. A survey was used to obtain demographic …
July 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
soybean crop would be a near record
4.310 billion bushels (bb), down 82 million bushels (mb) from the record high of 4.392 billion bushels (bb) in
year 2017, but up from 4.296 bb in year 2016. The August 10th USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports will provide the first in‐the‐field samples and farmer survey
results for the 2018 U …
County Summary
38
Livestock Enterprise Reports … 59
Cow-Calf Survey Preliminary Results … 14,901
Sheep3
Swine4
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 1,218
Custom Feeding7 …
September 1, 2024
2024 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
USDA-NASS cash rental rate surveys from 2024 to
help smooth … There are very few crop and
livestock producing farming operations … either formal or informal surveys of what others are paying …
October 8, 2024
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-meat … monthly-meat-demand-monitor-
survey-data/meat-demand-monitor-who%E2%80%99s-buying … the third quarter of 2024. Survey responses were weighted to …
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
dly diminishing foreign 2015
production prospects, and/or have weather‐induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March‐April
2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively affected – which could
impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices (i.e., more U.S. corn acres, and less soybean acres).
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2014 USDA Reports & “Current crop” MY 2014/15
Projections
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn production estimates for 2014. The
December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive changes
made from the November 10th Crop Production report – which was based on farmer surveys and objective
field plot …