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December 4, 2017
Agribusiness Papers
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Sustainable Growth Rate … Farmland Industries. This event
pushed the average SGR down … ‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Earnings Retention (left axis …
March 2, 2018
2018
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef Basis, Salina, KS
2018 Projections
(as of 3/1/18):
Oct. 17: $172
$285.63
$203.51
$138.44
$170.66
$154.50
$152.50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 … 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Costs, structure, technology, demographics, climate, and barriers to
entry/asset fixity impact herd expansion/contraction decisions
• Unexpected events disrupted supply chains and created economic,
environmental, and social uncertainty in beef industry
• … 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 …
Breakout Sessions
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Crops … 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Precip … ‐0.01
But remember,
the model did not predict well!
Changing management (e.g., increasing input levels) can
offset the effects of the models using just the weather
events.
In conclusion,
• The model was fit to 331 KFMA members for whom continuous
records were available from 1993‐2011
• …
January 1, 2006
Animal ID & Traceability
liability recourse in
the event of a legal claim by future … 13-�
(USDA/NASS, 2002; MLA, 2004). Feedlots
in the United … commercial pro-
duction (MLA, 2004; ALFA, 2003).
Cattle production …
December 4, 2013
herd expansion tools, these events, etc.
– Do you know your comparative advantage?
• … 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per … LMIC
12/4/2013
36
State / Region 1994 2004 2010 2013
1994 …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… 2014 CME eSoybeans
10/18/2013 – 6/18/2014
Close: $12.13 on June 18th
Page | 4
I‐D. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand
U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2014 U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage, U.S. average
yield, and U.S. soybean production. Updated estimates of U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage will be
given in the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Any changes in projected
U.S. soybean acreage in the upcoming Acreage report will likely be included in the upcoming July 11th World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.
Following from the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA continued to
project that 2014 U.S. soybean total planted acreage would be a record high 81.493 million acres (ma), up
from 76.533 ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2). In addition, the
USDA projected 2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be 80.5 ma, up from 75.869 ma in 2013, 76.164 ma in
2012, and 73.776 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be
98.7%, down from 99.1% in 2013, but comparable to 98.7% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. The U.S. average
soybean percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2004‐2013 has been 98.7% , …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
August 1, 2022
Breakout Sessions
Costs, structure, technology, demographics, climate, and barriers to
entry/asset fixity impact herd expansion/contraction decisions
• Unexpected events disrupted supply chains and created economic,
environmental, and social uncertainty in beef industry
• … 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 …
August 1, 2024
Breakout Sessions
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 … Interventions in the natural course of events always produce suboptimal outcomes
U.S. Total Ag Output and Input Trends (2015=1)
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Fact
or In
dex
(201
5=1)
Total agricultural output …