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April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
Packers and Stockyards and Livestock Market Reporting divisions … extension specialist on
livestock economics and
markets. Lee … a
diversified crop and
livestock farm in central
Wisconsin …
January 1, 2004
Hog Pricing
the
last decade. Periodic surveys conducted
jointly by the … Grimes). The two most recent surveys
covered the 1997 and 2000 … contracts have nearly reversed.
Survey results compiled by Uni-
versity …
October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
13 companies have Standard Reinsurance Agreements & 10 have Livestock Price Reinsurance Agreements with RMA.
The companies provide agents that sell the crop insurance to producers.
The companies manage loss adjusters and pay all claims.
What is the Risk Management Agency(RMA)?
?
10 RMA Regional Offices …
Breakout Sessions
first-hand knowledge with livestock
production, Glynn has expertise … 3
Available�at:�http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp#Beef�Cattle
How�much�“excess�capacity”�currently�exists�in�
the�U.S.�feedlot�industry?
40%
43%
1 … 0.40
DOF�(steers)�per�KS�FOF�Survey 141.50 151.58 148.83 152.08 …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA made no change from the January WASDE report in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total
planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the
December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from
95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA made no change in its January projection of 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage of
83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December. Harvested acreage of 83.136 ma
in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% ‐ which had
been adjusted up from 91.4% in December. This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up
marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and
unchanged from the January USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac in
December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of 171.0 bu/ac in January‐
February is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the
previous record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
DEC 2015 CME eCorn Futures
June 20, 2014 – Feb. 17, 2015
Close = $4.20 ½ on 2/17/2015
MAR 2015 CME eCorn Futures
June 20, 2014 – Feb. 17, 2015
Close = $3.89 ½ on 2/17/2015
Page | 4
Based on these 2014 acreage and yield projections, the USDA maintained is January projection that 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.216 billion bushels (bb) – down from 14.407 bb in the December
USDA reports. The projection of a record high 14.216 bb is up from the previous record high of 13.925 bb in
2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.472 bb in “current crop” MY
2014/15 are comparable to recent year’s amounts of 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09,
14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904
bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.232 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally (‐ 4 mb) from October‐
December USDA WASDE reports. The total of 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up
from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, but less than 1.708 bb in
MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning stocks in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.232 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY
1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13
marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in
MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.250 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December WASDE report –
due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in distillers grains co‐product prices, and c)
increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in recent weeks (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6).
This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY
2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.
Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the
equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has
ranged from 4.911‐5.530 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current
crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through February 6, 2015, corn
usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.277 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This
estimate of 5.277 bb is 27 mb more than the USDA’s February 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb of
corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 23 of 52 weeks (44.2%) of the
marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
December 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
s than during
the 2009/2010 through 2011/2012 period. Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected to be down to the lowest
levels in four years due to limited U.S. wheat exports and domestic livestock wheat feeding.
The U … For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World
wheat ending stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use minimums of 129.0 mmt and 21.0% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. December 2014 and Upcoming January 2015 USDA Reports
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. wheat production estimates for 2014.
The December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive
changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report. The next major survey based USDA report
addressing U.S. crop production for wheat, corn, other feedgrains, soybeans, and other major crops will be the
USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same
day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter
Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. The “current crop” 2014/15 U.S.
wheat marketing year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $8.62 per bushel on May 6, 2014 for the MARCH 2015 contract, Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures trended sharply lower through the later part of September‐early October – with the
MARCH 2015 contract trading as low as $5.54 ¾ per bushel on October 1, 2014. This four month decline in
wheat market prices was attributed largely to a) unthreatened prospects for record large world wheat
production in the 2014/15 marketing year during this same time period, b) a second consecutive year of near
record large world coarse grain production which lessened the demand for wheat feed use, and c) an uptrend
in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major World currencies – making the effective price of U.S. wheat
higher for World import buyers.
However, since those wheat futures market lows in the last half of September‐early October ($5.54 on
10/1/2014), and again in early November ($5.70 ¼ on 11/10/2014), wheat futures markets have trended
higher. Reasons for this price uptrend include a) the onset and intensification of the most recent El Nino
weather pattern – which has caused dry growing conditions and reduced wheat production prospects in
Australia – a major World wheat exporter, and 2) emerging geopolitical, logistical and financial problems in the
Black Sea Region countries – posing a threat to their ability to supply wheat exports to World wheat markets.
On Wednesday, December 17th CME Hard Red Winter Wheat futures traded as high as $6.85 per bushel – up to
the highest level since July 8th of this year.
MARCH 2015 Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices responded to the release of the December 10th USDA
reports by trading lower for the day. MARCH 2015 HRW wheat efutures prices opened at $6.22 ¾ on
Wednesday, December 10th the high for the day. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time). Prices declined as low as $6.13 per bushel during the session before closing $0.04 ½ lower for
the day at $6.17 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2015 HRW wheat efutures prices have trended higher,
rising from a low of $6.10 ½ on December 11th up to a high of $6.82 ¾ on December 17th before closing at
$6.81 ½ on that same day.
Page | 3
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
August 28, 2015
Meat Demand Research Studies
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/Beef%20Demand/default.asp … Using American
Housing Survey Data.” Available at:
http://www.huduser.org/publications/pdf/AHS_HouseholdComposition_v2.pdf … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/Meat%20Demand/Index/IndexOverview
_09-14-10.pdf …
July 8, 2024
Examples
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-
meat/meat-demand
Agricultural … Matters
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-meat … monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-data/us-meat-
demand-update-and-role …
December 24, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
rain sorghum exports and prices has been due largely to Chinese
import restrictions for particular varieties of GMO corn from the U.S. – and China’s willingness to substitute
grain sorghum imports to fulfill their domestic livestock feed needs. With recent … … gh
November 5th period. The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for grain
sorghum, corn and other feedgrains, wheat, soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop
Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same day USDA NASS will
also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World
coarse grain supply‐demand projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing
years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. grain
sorghum marketing year began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Corn Futures Trends for the October‐December 2014 Period
Local cash grain sorghum prices are determined by local basis adjustments relative to corn futures
contracts. In this section, recent trends in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices are
examined – given their relevance to cash grain sorghum prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at
the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest
low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month). The
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness for U.S. feedgrain prices has typically occurred during the months of
January‐February in large crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again
sometime before spring, 2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract
on October 1st could be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal
price decline occur in coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
Page | 3
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.14 ¼ on Monday, December 22nd
before closing at $4.11 ¾ on that same day.
The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash grain sorghum and corn price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.37 ¾ on Monday, December 22nd before closing at $4.34
¾ on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” grain sorghum and corn forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
February 12, 2021
Meat Demand Research Studies
14
II. National Survey and Analyses … series of experiments in
a survey of over 3,000 U.S. residents … Extended Recommendations
Livestock producers have a rather obvious …