Search
Displaying 641 - 650 of 694
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
the Cash Rents and Leases Survey
administered by the National … Vegetative cover
• Small scale livestock initiative
• Beginning … Materials Centers (PMC)
• Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2016 and will last through 5/31/2017. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on
the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐based, but instead
carr …
October 30, 2015
National stocker producer survey
– Sept-Nov 2014, Mailed … Sept-Nov 2014, Mailed 2,000 surveys
• 554 returned (27.7 … Does this Work Matter?
• Livestock Industry
– Economically …
March 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand for the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year
U.S. Corn 2013 Acres, Yield & Production
The USDA again left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 billion bushels (bb),
up from a drought‐affected short crop of 10.780 bb in 2012. This USDA projection is based on record high
planted acreage of 95.365 million acres (ma), and harvested acreage of 87.668 ma (Table 1 and Figure 2). The
USDA also maintained its projection of an average U.S. corn yield of 158.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac). The
January‐March USDA 2014 projection of 158.8 bu/ac in average 2013 U.S. corn yields is down from the USDA’s
projection at the February 22, 2013 USDA Outlook Forum of 163.6 bu/ac (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Projected 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 bb remains a record high, being up 3.145 bb ( 29%) from
10.780 bb in 2012, and up 13% from 12.360 bb in 2011 (Table 1). If further changes are eventually made by
the USDA in its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production, they are unlikely to occur until the 2014 Crop
Production Summary is released in January 2015 if the USDA follows its usual procedures.
U.S. Corn Total Supplies in “Current” MY 2013/14
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current” MY 2013/14 are 14.781 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 821 mb, projected 2013 production of 13.925 bb, and projected imports of 35 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 14.781 bb in MY 2013/14 would be a record high, comparable to 14.362 bb in MY
2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd
largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.932 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. Beginning stocks of 821 mb are
the lowest since 426 mb in MY 1996/97, and substantiate the tightness of U.S. corn supplies during June‐
August 2013.
U.S. Corn Total Use & Use by Category in “Current” MY 2013/14
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 13.325 bb – up 25 mb from February,
up 175 from January, up 275 mb from the December WASDE, and up 375 mb from November, while being up
19.9% from 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 6). United States’ total corn use of
13.325 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 would be the highest on record, comparable to 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08
(4th highest), 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd highest), 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd
highest), 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.000 bb in
“current” MY 2013/14 is up from 4.648 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being equal to 5.000 bb in MY
MAY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.86 ¼ on Fri., March 18th
December 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.87 ¾ on Fri., March 18th
Page | 4
2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas
State University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate
that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14
has ranged from 4.637‐5.262 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the beginning of the “current”
2013/14 marketing year – averaging a projection of 4.993 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 over the September
2013 – March 7, 2014 time period. This projection of 4.993 bb is consistent to USDA’s March 2014 WASDE
report estimate of 5.000 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
October 3, 2013
Requirements for
Traceability of Livestock and Meat
Quick Background … international trade to
U.S. livestock industries is growing
3 … economic impacts on U.S.
livestock and meat producers and
consumers …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The purpose of this study was to conduct a benefit‐cost analysis of the
United States National Animal Identification System (NAIS). The NAIS is a
voluntary federal animal identification system operated by the Animal
and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA). NAIS is designed primarily to protect
the health of the nation’s livestock and poultry to enhance a …
Breakout Sessions
Commodity prices have tumbled‐causing
considerable concern
• Livestock incomes have increased due to
lower priced feed
‐20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
KFMA Net Farm Income
‐20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
KFMA Net Farm Income
Difference : $94,506
Average 2007‐2013 : $137,915
Average 2000‐2006 : $43,409
Kansas Farm Management Data
• …
Summary Book - All Counties
66-67
IV. LIVESTOCK ENTERPRISE ANALYSISLivestock Enterprise Comparison (NW … 72-73
Livestock Enterprise Comparison (State … 80
Cow-Calf Management Survey …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐A. May USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat will end on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S.
wheat marketing year will begin on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.
In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are
based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from April 24th to May 7th by the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel on December 18, 2014, the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures contract trended sharply lower – falling to a low of $5.37 on February 2, 2015. Then
after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to $5.22 ¾ on March 6th.
Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a decline to below $$.90
in early May, and then a rise to $5.49 ½ on May 15, 2015.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the
release of the May 12th USDA reports by trading sideways‐to‐lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat
efutures prices opened at $5.09 on Tuesday, May 12th. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11
a.m., central time). That day prices traded as low as $5.05 ¼ and as high as $5.18 ¾ per bushel during the
session before closing $0.01 lower for the day at $5.07 ¾ /bu (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MAY 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
oric World wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use minimums of 128.75 mmt and 20.9% S/U in MY 2007/08,
which led to record high U.S. season average wheat prices of $6.89 /bu in that marketing year.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. July 10th USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On July 10th the USDA released two reports, the July 2015 Crop Production report from the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), and the July 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report from the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
In the July 10th Crop Production report the USDA released projections of the 2015 U.S. wheat crop.
Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from June
24th to July 7th by USDA NASS – representing crop conditions and production prospects as of July 1, 2015. The
July 10th WASDE report contained U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14,
“old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The “old crop” 2014/15 marketing
year for U.S. wheat ended on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. wheat marketing year began
on June 1, 2015, and will last through May 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.10 ½ per bushel for the CME SEPTEMBER 2015 Kansas hard red winter wheat
futures contract occurred on December 18, 2014, September futures have trended generally lower – down to
a low of $4.95 ½ on May 5, 2015. Then after trading in a range of $5.00 ½ to $5.74 ½ during the May 6th to
June 26th period, September 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures rose to $6.11 ½ on June 30th – the day of the
2015 USDA Acreage and June Quarterly Stocks reports.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) SEPT 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the
release of the July 10th USDA reports by trading lower for the day. The USDA reports were released at midday
(i.e., 11 a.m., central time). SEPT 2015 HRW wheat futures prices opened at $5.78 on Friday, July 10th ‐ trading
as high as $5.86 ½ and as low as $5.66 ¾ per bushel during the session, before closing $0.07 lower for the day
at $5.72 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). Since then, September 2015 wheat futures have fallen to a low of $5.11 on
Wednesday, July 22, before closing at $5.12 ¾ per bushel that same day.
Figure 1. SEPT 2015 & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …