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March 9, 2011
Energy
make them a good feed
for livestock. A small portion of the distill-
ers … roughage more palatable to
livestock.
Figure 5. Ethanol storage … Agriculture, and the U.S. Geological Survey.
The location of ethanol …
September 23, 2022
Meat Demand Research Studies
Specifically, each
MDM survey participant is presented … https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-data.
5 Similarly, the share … https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/meat-demand-
research-studies/consumer-sensitivity-pork-prices-comparison …
Breakout Sessions
non-market valuation and involves surveys, market experiments, and … nowÆmarket wants the grain now
Livestock – months traded
y LC … contracts at CME are 1,000 bu
y Livestock
Live cattle – 40 000 lbsLive …
August 16, 2017
General Sessions
was raised on a grain and livestock farm in south central Nebraska … farmer and in-the-field crop surveys come
available in the August … Crop” MY 2017/18 Corn Use
o Livestock Feed 2017/18 = 5.450 bln …
May 14, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th
$8.24 ½ Close
May 12th
Page | 3
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 47.2 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012,
and up from 45.705 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down from the record high
of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1
and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.963 billion bushels (bb) – which is
down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in 2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its May 9th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). Winter wheat
harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat
percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013
of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. IF
extreme drought conditions continue in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and
Nebraska in coming weeks and months – the five states of which make up the primary U.S. hard red winter
wheat production area – then the proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acres in 2014 could decline even further,
possibly even below the 75.2% level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 43.1 bu/ac, down from the record high of 47.4
bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to be 1.403 bb, down from 1.534 bb in
2013. Of the 2014 total of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be 746 million
bushels (mb), up marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter wheat production is forecast to
be 447 million bushels (mb), down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower planted acreage in 2014.
White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 209 mb, down 7% from 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage is equal to the March 31st USDA
Prospective Plantings report forecast of 12.009 ma. Similarly, 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage is
forecast to be 1.799 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.009 ma is
Page | 4
down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat
planted acreage to 1.799 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011.
Based on its internal projections that have not been formally released to the public, the USDA World
Agricultural Outlook Board has calculated 2014 U.S. other spring wheat and durum harvested acres using 10‐
year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state off of its state‐level planted acreage projections. Similarly, spring
wheat and durum wheat yields were estimated using 1985‐2013 yield trends by state (except for durum wheat
in Arizona, California, and Idaho). The combined 2014 production forecast for U.S. spring and durum wheat
together is approximately 560.5 mb, down from 595.4 mb (533.5 mb of other spring wheat, and 61.9 mb or
durum wheat) in 2013.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
The USDA projected that total supplies of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be 2.706 bb – the
lowest amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Projected total
supplies of 2.706 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY
2007/08, 2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12,
3.131 bb in MY 2012/13, and 3.023 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14.
Total supplies of 2.706 bb resulted from beginning stocks of 583 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.963
bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1).
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 583 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 would be down 18.8% from
718 mb beginning stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14. This would be the
lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the tight ending stocks
situation that developed in MY 2007/08. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the “new
crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat supplies that
has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY
2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had and likely will continue to have an impact on U.S. wheat
imports until the 2014 U.S. wheat harvest period. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 970 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending steadily
higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated food demand for processed
wheat products. This projected amount of 970 mb food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb or 1.04%
from 960 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, from 945 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1
and Figure 4).
Page | 5
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up marginally from 74 mb in “current”
MY 2013/14, and from 73 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but equal to 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and
Figure 4). The USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 extends
the historic pattern of the existence of a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed. Seed wheat
demand is driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage
each year (from on‐farm and commercial seed sources) and also the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to
cover possible seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down sharply from 1.185
bb for “current” MY 2013/14 (which is up 10 mb from April). This amount of U.S. wheat exports would be the
lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation of lower available supplies of U.S. hard red winter wheat
for export sales in 2014/15 along with the likelihood of more than adequate foreign wheat supplies are factors
in this lower U.S. export projection of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the
risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15 Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino
weather pattern in coming months, as well as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from
geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region (between Russian and Ukraine) are factors that may support
World wheat prices in the new crop marketing year.
On May 1st cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year totaled
1.021 bb, which is 86.2% of the USDA’s projected “current” MY 2013/14 exports of 1.185 bb with 92.3% (48 of
52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “Current year” MY 2013/14 ends on May 31, 2014. United States’
export shipments will need to average 41.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year to attain the USDA’s May WASDE projection of 1.185 bb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S.
of 24.9 mb and 19.3 mb occurred during the weeks ending March 24th and May 1st, respectively, were “behind
pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 1.185 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign
Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 139.1 mb in U.S. wheat for “current” MY
2013/14 (that had not yet been shipped as of May 1st), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments
added up to 1.161 bb (i.e., 1.021 bb shipped plus 139.1 mb forward sales with rounding) for “current” MY
2013/14. This amounts to 98.0% of the USDA’s projection of 1.185 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 with 92.3% of
the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 48 of 52 weeks).
There are also 114.9 mb of forward sales of U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year as of
May 1st. It is possible if not likely that some of the unshipped forward sales remaining in “current year” MY
2013/14 will be cancelled and possibly “rolled forward” into “new crop” MY 2014/15 (beginning on June 1st).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 170 mb in “next crop”
MY 2014/15, down from 220 mb for “current” MY 2013/14, from the recent high of 388 mb in MY 2012/13,
while still being up from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has
declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more abundant U.S. feedgrain
supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. Subsequently, there is now
lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both …
June 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th $7.13 ¼ Close
June 13th
$7.02 Low
June 12th
Page | 3
eventually impact 2014 World wheat markets if such conditions prolong and cause more pronounced crop
damage in coming weeks and months (such as occurred in both 2010 and 2012 in that region of the World).
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices have responded to the release of
the May 9th USDA reports by trading generally lower. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.28 on Wednesday, June 11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $7.03 ¼ to $7.31 ¼ during the session before closing $0.21 ¾
lower for the day at $7.04 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). On Thursday (June 12th) and Friday (June 13th), JULY 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices traded in the range from a low of $7.02 on June 12th up to a high of $7.19 ½ on June
13th, before closing at $7.13 ¼ on Friday, June 13th – up $0.07 ¼ per bushel from the previous trading day.
Longer term, after trading at a low of $5.99 ¾ on January 29th, electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red
Winter Wheat futures prices trending sharply higher up to $7.94 ¼ on March 20th, and up to $8.55 ½ on May
6th. Since then, July 2014 Kansas Wheat futures have trended lower, trading as low as $7.02 on Jto since.
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, in the WASDE
report the USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 45.9 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013,
down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in 2011. Updated estimates of U.S. wheat planted and
harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down 0.4 bu/ac from May,
and down from the record high of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010,
and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.942
billion bushels (bb) – down 21 million bushels (mb) from May, and down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in
2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its June 11th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). As indicated above,
updated estimates of U.S. winter wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Winter wheat harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014
is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of
77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013 of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013
U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. The extreme drought conditions and freeze
Page | 4
damage that have occurred this past fall and winter in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas,
Colorado and Nebraska have been the primary factors leading to a lower than normal forecast of percent
harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2014. Even with recent moisture received in parts of Kansas in recent weeks,
it is possible that the carryover impact of earlier wheat crop development problems in these states will cause
the proportion of 2014 harvested‐to‐planted acres to decline even further, possibly even below the 75.2%
level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 42.4 bu/ac, down from 43.1 bu/ac in May,
down from the record high of 47.4 bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to
be 1.381 bb, down 0.021 bb (21.445 million bushels or ‘mb’) from May, and down from 1.534 bb in 2013. Of
the 2014 total U.S. All Wheat Production of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast
to be 720 mb – down 26 mb from May – but down marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter
wheat production is forecast to be 454 mb, down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower U.S. soft
red winter wheat planted acreage in 2014. White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to
be 206 mb, down 3 mb from May, and down from 225 mb in 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield and Production for 2014
The USDA projection of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage is equal to the March 31st USDA
Prospective Plantings report forecast of 12.009 ma. Similarly, 2014 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage is
forecast to be 1.799 ma. The USDA’s estimate of 2014 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 12.009 ma is
down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011. The USDA’s estimate of 2013 U.S. durum wheat
planted acreage to 1.799 ma is down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011. Updated
estimates of U.S. spring and durum wheat planted and harvested acreage will be given in the USDA NASS
Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014.
Based on its internal projections that have not been formally released to the public, the USDA World
Agricultural Outlook Board has calculated 2014 U.S. other spring wheat and durum harvested acres using 10‐
year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state off of its state‐level planted acreage projections. Similarly, spring
wheat and durum wheat yields were estimated using 1985‐2013 yield trends by state (except for durum wheat
in Arizona, California, and Idaho). The combined 2014 production forecast for U.S. spring and durum wheat
together is approximately 560.5 mb, down from 595.4 mb (533.5 mb of other spring wheat, and 61.9 mb or
durum wheat) in 2013.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of 2.695 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning
stocks of 593 mb, projected 2014 production of 1.942 bb, and projected imports of 160 mb (Table 1). Total
supplies of U.S. wheat would be 2.695 bb in MY 2014/15 are down 11 mb from May, down to the lowest
amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. Projected total supplies of
2.695 bb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932
bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY
2012/13, and 3.018 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 593 mb in “next crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb from May, and is
down 17.4% from 718 mb beginning stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14.
This would be the lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the tight
Page | 5
ending stocks situation that developed in MY 2007/08. This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into
the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the steadily increasing tightness of U.S. wheat
supplies that has occurred over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976
mb in MY 2010/11).
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 160 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the second highest amount
on record, down from the record high of 170 mb in “current” MY 2013/14. The next highest amounts since MY
1973/74 have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119
mb in MY 2009/10. Record large 2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or
1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) has had and likely will continue to have an impact on U.S. wheat
imports until the 2014 U.S. wheat harvest period. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were
over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt). Projected Canadian
wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.5 mmt.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending steadily
higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated food demand for processed
wheat products. This projected amount of 960 mb food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down 10 mb from
May, but up from 950 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is also down 10 mb from May), from 945 mb in MY
2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up marginally from 74 mb in “old crop”
MY 2013/14, and from 73 mb in MY 2012/13, but equal to 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA forecast U.S. wheat seed use of approximately 76 mb for “next year” MY 2014/15 extends the historic
pattern of the existence of a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed. Seed wheat demand is
driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year
(from on‐farm and commercial seed sources) and also the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover
possible seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (down 25 mb from May) are
down sharply from 1.180 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which is down 5 mb from May). This amount of U.S.
wheat exports would be the lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10. The anticipation of lower available supplies
of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along with the likelihood of more
than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are factors in this lower U.S. export
projection of 925 mb in 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4). That said, the risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15
Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather pattern in coming months, as well
as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and
Ukraine) and dry weather in parts of the Black Sea Region (Russia) are factors that may eventually support
increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the new crop marketing year.
In the very beginning week of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year (starting on June 1st), as of June 5th
cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments totaled 12.067 mb, which is 1.3% of the USDA’s projected “new crop”
MY 2014/15 exports of 925 mb with 1.9% (1 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “New crop” MY
2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015. United States’ export shipments will need to average 17.9 mb per week
through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s June WASDE projection
of 925 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 12.067 mb occurred during the week ending June 5th, were
Page | 6
“behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 925 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year. (Source: USDA
Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html).
However, accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 227.7 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY
2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of June 5th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments
added up to 239.8 mb (i.e., 12.1 mb shipped plus 227.7 mb forward sales with rounding) for “new crop” MY
2014/15. This amounts to 25.9% of the USDA’s projection of 925 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 1.9% of
the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 1 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 160 mb in “new crop”
MY 2014/15, down 10 my from May, and down from 220 mb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, from the recent high
of 388 mb in MY 2012/13, and up marginally from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Domestic
U.S. wheat feeding has declined due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more
abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
Subsequently, there is now lower cross‐market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both …
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