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August 14, 2015
Grain Marketing Presentations
discovery processes ration usage
Searching for Wheat Market … “short” vs “abundant” Stocks/Use
ElasticityUsage affected conversely by “high” … Supply-Demand
1) Large U.S. & World Stocks of Wheat
• A “buyers” …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
A number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price prospects –
including strong exports, lingering harvest delays from wet fall weather in some parts of the U.S. corn belt,
ongoing strong ethanol usage, and uncertain South American corn production prospects in in 2019.
…
October 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
large –
although wet harvest conditions have caused quality problems the southern states and elsewhere. Record
large ending stocks are having a major negat … negotiations
between the countries.
What is “Known” – Record Large U.S. Soybean Production, Supplies, & % Stocks/Use : In the October 1 …
February 23, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
despite
relatively large stocks of both commodities. In … competition. Soybean carryin stocks
are the highest since 2007/08 … forecast 2018/19 ending stocks in both absolute terms and …
February 6, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… ates (long term price positive), negative market news of both December 1st Quarterly Stocks of U.S.
wheat and “cu … 13/14 marketing year U.S. wheat ending stocks being larger than the to …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
markedly … p, 3.775 bb total
supplies, 1.625 bb exports, 3.450 bb total use, 325 million bushel (mb) ending stocks, 9.4% ending …
February 24, 2022
Grain Marketing Presentations
“Strong” U.S. Corn Usage in “Current” MY 2021/22 (thru 8/31/2022)
• … “Strong” U.S. Soybean Usage in “Current” MY 2021/22 (thru 8/31/2022)
• … “Tighter” U.S. Corn Stocks & % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use
• 1.540 bb@ 10.40% …
July 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
ybean market prospects where described as
“neutral‐to‐cautiously optimistic” for the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year. Now with the uncertainty and
potential negative impacts of 25% soybean import tariffs by China against U.S. soybeans, the “narrative
consensus opinion” of the market has turned pessimistic price‐wise, which has been reflected in “new crop”
NOVEMBER 2018 Soybean futures. NOV 2018 Soybean futures declined from a high of $10.43 ¾ on May 30th
down to a low of $8.46 per bushel on July 17th (Figure 1). Since then, NOV 2018 Soybean futures have
increased moderately to a close of $8.76 on Thursday, July 26th.
There are still other unsettled questions about key U.S. soybean supply‐demand factors that need to be
answered between now and fall harvest 2018. These include: 1) remaining 2018 U.S. soybean production risk
in Summer 2018; 2) expectations of continued strength in U.S. soybean domestic crush and to some degree
exports in coming months; and 3) the possibility of tighter U.S. soybean supplies in terms of reduced ending
stocks and percent ending stocks‐to‐use if a short cro …
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
In the January 11, 2019 USDA Annual 2018 Crop Production Summary report the U.S. could lower
this projection of 2018 U.S. corn production by 50‐100 mb or more due to late harvest issues and
delays in parts of the U.S.. Such a decline in 2018 U.S. corn production could have a significant
positive affect on “current crop” 2018/19 ending stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use.
o The USDA’s preliminary forecast from its Long Term Agricultural Projections released this fall are
for 2019 U.S. corn production to be 14.930 bb.
2 …
November 12, 2015
2015 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
“short” vs “abundant” Stocks/Use
Use = f(PricesUsage affected conversely by “high” … Market”
• Record World Supplies & Usage Forecast in 2015/16
o 3 … unlessor until World supplies & stocks decline
o U.S. & World Crop …