Search
Displaying 81 - 90 of 265
February 4, 2016
Grain Marketing Presentations
Weather & Increased Grain Stocks
4) Chinese AgriculturalStocks Policy – Feedgrain impacts
5 … China Soybean Use, Imports, Stocks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
M
i
l
l
i
o
n …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
However, a number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price
prospects – including strong exports, developing harvest delays from wet fall weather, ongoing strong ethanol
usage, and uncertain South Amer … d 1.032 million
barrels per day (range of 1.02 to 1.051 mb/d). Assuming 42 gallons of ethanol per barrel, and 2.8 gallons
of ethanol per bushel of either corn or grain sorghum used in the production process, this rate of U.S.
ethanol production would result in 5.592 bb of U.S. feedgrain use for ethanol. Assuming approximately
75‐100 mb of U.S. grain sorghum to be used for ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2018/19, at the
current pace of usage there would be 5.000‐5.250 bb of U.S. corn used for ethanol production over the
same period. This amount of ethanol use would be down 450‐650 mb from the USDA’s projection of
record high 5.650 bb use for ethanol (Table 1, Figures 9abc‐10).
However, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent action to approve the use of E15 on a season‐
round basis in U.S. motor fuels may lead to increased feedgrain use for ethanol during the remainder of
“new crop” MY 2018/19 through August 31, 2019.
Taken together, these results indicated continued strong use of U.S. feedgrains in general and U.S. corn
in particular in domestic ethanol production.
Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be formally termed
to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export purchases have shifted
completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World soybean producing countries.
The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are estimated to be more than $2.00
per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price differential favoring South American soybeans,
it makes sense that South American farmers will have an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and
production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean acreage
will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically accounts for 1/3
of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically enters World export
markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
…
January 11, 2018
Farming for the Future Presentations, Grain Marketing Presentations
2017)
• Large U.S. & World Stocks continue to limit Wheat Price$’s … in MY 2016/17)
U.S. Wheat Stocks…..
• All U.S. Wheat: “Large”Stocks
o EndStocks 2017/18 960 mln bu (1.181 …
January 22, 2018
Farming for the Future Presentations, Grain Marketing Presentations
2017)
• Large U.S. & World Stocks continue to limit Wheat Price$’s … MY 2016/17)
5
U.S. Wheat Stocks…..
• All U.S. Wheat: “Large”Stocks
o EndStocks 2017/18 989 mln bu (1.181 …
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
marketing year, corn futures prices are unlikely to rise to $4.50‐$5.00+ by
spring 2016 unless larger than expected corn usage occurs in response to lo … rain prices have resulted in lower input costs and improved profitability for U.S. and
Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users, leading to increased feedgrain usage. Over time these factor …
September 6, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
orld wheat exports with 170.7 mmt in the “current” marketing year – up from 170.6 mmt
last year, and up from 164.4 mmt two years ago, 3) World wheat ending stocks at a record high 252.8 … …
For a perspective on how historically large World total wheat stocks and World wheat percent stocks‐to‐use
are, the 34‐ …
November 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… … and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report projected that “new crop” 2018/19
marketing year (MY) ending stocks – which began on Septe …
December 14, 2017
Farming for the Future Presentations, Grain Marketing Presentations
Crop
• Large Supplies & Stocks are limiting Feedgrain Price$’s
• … ‘15/16)
U.S. Corn & Grain Sorghum Stocks…..
• Corn: “Large”Stocks & % Stx/Use
o EndStocks 2017/18 2.437 bln bu …
December 19, 2017
Farming for the Future Presentations, Grain Marketing Presentations
2017)
• Large U.S. & World Stocks continue to limit Wheat Price$’s … MY 2016/17)
U.S. Wheat Stocks…..
• All U.S. Wheat: “Large”Stocks
o EndStocks 2017/18 960 mln bu (1.181 …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… lack Sea Region countries to sell down their domestic reserve stocks
to maintain their export … ould occur in “new crop” MY 2019/20 – which will begin on June
1, 2019. The risk of tightening stocks is that these countries …