RISK ASSESSED MARKETING
DR. G. A. “ART” BARNABY, JR.
PHONE: 785-532-1515
FAX: 785-532-6925
WEB Page http://www.agecon.ksu.edu/risk/
E-MAIL: abarnaby@agecon.ksu.edu
E-mail Art to be added to Mail List
Copyright 2002. All rights reserved by author.
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Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 
Disclosure:  Dr. Barnaby’s research was the basis for the privately developed Crop Revenue Coverage.
Estimated RA, IP Corn  and CRC Cotton Harvest Price 
for State with March 15 and Feb 28 Sales Closing
Nov Nov Nov Nov
Closing Closing Closing Closing
Price Price Price Price
CBOT NYCEX CBOT NYCEX
Dec 02 Dec 02 Dec 02 Dec 02
Date Corn Cotton Date Corn Cotton
11/01/02 2.4750 0.4691 11/15/02 2.4200 0.4901
11/02/02 2.4425 0.4913 11/18/02 2.4375 0.4821
11/05/02 2.4200 0.4795 11/19/02 2.4750 0.4680
11/06/02 2.4300 0.4769 11/20/02 2.4800 0.4781
11/07/02 2.4100 0.4823 11/21/02 2.4650 0.4729
11/08/02 2.3700 0.4839 11/22/02 2.4775 0.4745
11/09/02 2.3575 0.4842 11/25/02 2.4325 0.4785
11/12/02 2.3825 0.4757 11/26/02 2.4225 0.4720
11/13/02 2.4050 0.4735 11/27/02 2.4075 0.4750
11/14/02 2.4400 0.4767 11/29/02 2.4025 0.4750
Avg Harvest RA Corn Cotton CRC Corn Soybeans
 Price $2.43 $0.48 $2.52 $5.45
Plant Price 2.32 0.43 2.32 4.50
Price Change 0.11 0.05 0.20 0.95
% change 4.7% 11.6% 8.6% 21.1%
An Example RA-HPO for States with March 15 Sales Closing.
The Harvest price will be multiplied times the grower’s corn yield in 2002.
A grower with a 140 bu. APH X 70% coverage X $2.32 base price would
have had revenue guarantee of  $227.36.  If this grower produced 40 bushels
then based on today’s price  $2.43  estimate of the revenue 
to count would be    $97.20  and the indemnity payment would be the
difference between the revenue to count and the revenue guarantee for gross
indemnity payment of $140.94  (before premium deduction).

 
 

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