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Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 

Estimating Portland Wheat Basis 06 White Wheat1
CRC/ Portland: Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington  
Daily Average       Daily
Closing Closing Daily Average Daily Estimated
Price Price Closing Closing Basis Portland
CBOT CBOT Portland Portland for White
Sep-05 Sep-05 Cash  Cash  Nearby Wheat
Date Wheat Wheat Price Price Contract Basis
08/01/05 3.3050 3.3050 3.6100 3.6100 0.3050 0.5614
08/02/05 3.3200 3.3125 3.6100 3.6100 0.2975 0.5599
08/03/05 3.2600 3.2950 3.6100 3.6100 0.3150 0.5634
08/04/05 3.2500 3.2838 3.6150 3.6113 0.3275 0.5659
08/05/05 3.2000 3.2670 3.6050 3.6100 0.3430 0.5690
08/08/05 3.2225 3.2596 3.5950 3.6075 0.3479 0.5700
08/09/05 3.1950 3.2504 3.5800 3.6036 0.3532 0.5711
08/10/05 3.2350 3.2484 3.5750 3.6000 0.3516 0.5708
08/11/05 3.2625 3.2500 3.5850 3.5983 0.3483 0.5701
08/12/05 3.2125 3.2463 3.5800 3.5965 0.3503 0.5705
08/15/05 3.1575 3.2382 3.5750 3.5945 0.3564 0.5717
08/16/05 3.1025 3.2269 3.5300 3.5892 0.3623 0.5729
08/17/05 3.1425 3.2204 3.5250 3.5842 0.3638 0.5732
08/18/05 3.2075 3.2195 3.5200 3.5796 0.3602 0.5725
08/19/05 3.2525 3.2217 3.5100 3.5750 0.3533 0.5711
08/22/05 3.2300 3.2222 3.5250 3.5719 0.3497 0.5704
08/23/05 3.1725 3.2193 3.5150 3.5685 0.3493 0.5703
08/24/05 3.1400 3.2149 3.4800 3.5636 0.3488 0.5702
08/25/05 3.1575 3.2118 3.4700 3.5587 0.3468 0.5698
08/26/05 3.1225 3.2074 3.4600 3.5538 0.3464 0.5697
08/29/05 3.1050 3.2025 3.4450 3.5486 0.3461 0.5697
08/30/05 3.0725 3.1966 3.4050 3.5420 0.3455 0.5695
08/31/05 3.0150 3.1887 3.5150 3.5409 0.3522 0.5709
           
Historical Portland-CBOT Nearby Basis by year 2005 0.35
        2004 0.80
        2003 0.29
        2002 0.60
        2001 0.82
    5 Yr Average Basis 0.5700
           
1Portland white wheat basis is defined as the difference between Portland cash price and nearby (September 05) Chicago wheat closing price.  A simple 5 year average basis will be added to the September 06 Chicago new crop wheat price to set the 06 CRC Portland wheat price.

 

 
 
Department of Agricultural Economics   K-State Research & Extension   College of Agriculture   Kansas State University