Disclaimer:
This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk
management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty
is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must
consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her
situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State
University.
Estimating Portland Wheat Basis 06 White Wheat1
CRC/ Portland: Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington
Daily
Average
Daily
Closing
Closing
Daily
Average
Daily
Estimated
Price
Price
Closing
Closing
Basis
Portland
CBOT
CBOT
Portland
Portland
for
White
Sep-05
Sep-05
Cash
Cash
Nearby
Wheat
Date
Wheat
Wheat
Price
Price
Contract
Basis
08/01/05
3.3050
3.3050
3.6100
3.6100
0.3050
0.5614
08/02/05
3.3200
3.3125
3.6100
3.6100
0.2975
0.5599
08/03/05
3.2600
3.2950
3.6100
3.6100
0.3150
0.5634
08/04/05
3.2500
3.2838
3.6150
3.6113
0.3275
0.5659
08/05/05
3.2000
3.2670
3.6050
3.6100
0.3430
0.5690
08/08/05
3.2225
3.2596
3.5950
3.6075
0.3479
0.5700
08/09/05
3.1950
3.2504
3.5800
3.6036
0.3532
0.5711
08/10/05
3.2350
3.2484
3.5750
3.6000
0.3516
0.5708
08/11/05
3.2625
3.2500
3.5850
3.5983
0.3483
0.5701
08/12/05
3.2125
3.2463
3.5800
3.5965
0.3503
0.5705
08/15/05
3.1575
3.2382
3.5750
3.5945
0.3564
0.5717
08/16/05
3.1025
3.2269
3.5300
3.5892
0.3623
0.5729
08/17/05
3.1425
3.2204
3.5250
3.5842
0.3638
0.5732
08/18/05
3.2075
3.2195
3.5200
3.5796
0.3602
0.5725
08/19/05
3.2525
3.2217
3.5100
3.5750
0.3533
0.5711
08/22/05
3.2300
3.2222
3.5250
3.5719
0.3497
0.5704
08/23/05
3.1725
3.2193
3.5150
3.5685
0.3493
0.5703
08/24/05
3.1400
3.2149
3.4800
3.5636
0.3488
0.5702
08/25/05
3.1575
3.2118
3.4700
3.5587
0.3468
0.5698
08/26/05
3.1225
3.2074
3.4600
3.5538
0.3464
0.5697
08/29/05
3.1050
3.2025
3.4450
3.5486
0.3461
0.5697
08/30/05
3.0725
3.1966
3.4050
3.5420
0.3455
0.5695
08/31/05
3.0150
3.1887
3.5150
3.5409
0.3522
0.5709
Historical Portland-CBOT Nearby Basis by year
2005
0.35
2004
0.80
2003
0.29
2002
0.60
2001
0.82
5 Yr Average Basis
0.5700
1Portland white wheat basis is defined as
the difference between Portland cash price and nearby (September 05)
Chicago wheat closing price. A simple 5 year average basis will be
added to the September 06 Chicago new crop wheat price to set the 06 CRC
Portland wheat price.