|
|
|
Disclaimer:
This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk
management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options,
forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty
is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must
consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her
situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State
University. |
|
Estimated revenue insurance Portland Harvest Price for Wheat in ID, NV,
OR, UT, and WA and for Spring Wheat States with Sales Closing 3/15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Daily |
Daily |
Daily |
|
Daily |
Daily |
Daily |
|
|
|
|
Closing |
Closing |
Closing |
|
Closing |
Closing |
Closing |
|
|
|
|
Price |
Price |
Price |
|
Price |
Price |
Price |
|
| |
|
Portland |
CBOT |
MGE |
|
Portland |
CBOT |
MGE |
|
|
|
|
Sep |
Sep 06 |
Sep 06 |
|
Sep |
Sep 06 |
Sep 06 |
|
|
|
Date |
Cash |
Wheat |
Wheat |
Date |
Cash |
Wheat |
Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08/01/06 |
3.8800 |
3.9250 |
4.6850 |
08/16/06 |
3.9650 |
3.7150 |
4.5075 |
|
|
|
08/02/06 |
3.9200 |
4.0150 |
4.7300 |
08/17/06 |
3.9600 |
3.6350 |
4.4675 |
|
|
|
08/03/06 |
3.9400 |
3.9525 |
4.7600 |
08/18/06 |
3.9600 |
3.6450 |
4.4850 |
|
|
|
08/04/06 |
3.9450 |
3.9600 |
4.8225 |
08/21/06 |
3.9700 |
3.6575 |
4.4650 |
|
|
|
08/07/06 |
3.9550 |
3.9300 |
4.8075 |
08/22/06 |
3.9500 |
3.5975 |
4.3850 |
|
|
|
08/08/06 |
3.9450 |
3.8400 |
4.7125 |
08/23/06 |
3.9450 |
3.6600 |
4.3975 |
|
|
|
08/09/06 |
3.9650 |
3.8800 |
4.7200 |
08/24/06 |
3.9600 |
3.7550 |
4.4600 |
|
|
|
08/10/06 |
3.9650 |
3.8650 |
4.7225 |
08/25/06 |
3.9750 |
3.7850 |
4.4500 |
|
|
|
08/11/06 |
3.9300 |
3.7375 |
4.5700 |
08/28/06 |
3.9600 |
3.8475 |
4.4900 |
|
|
|
08/14/06 |
3.9400 |
3.7400 |
4.5050 |
08/29/06 |
3.9750 |
3.8000 |
4.4700 |
|
|
|
08/15/06 |
3.9500 |
3.7675 |
4.5325 |
08/30/06 |
4.0350 |
3.9750 |
4.4975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08/31/06 |
4.0850 |
4.0400 |
4.5500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Avg Harvest |
Portland Wheat |
Chicago Wheat |
Spring Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price |
$3.960 |
$3.814 |
$4.574 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plant Price |
$4.13 |
|
$4.22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price Change |
($0.17) |
|
$0.35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
% change |
(-4.12%) |
|
8.39% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase in Trigger Yield1 |
104.3% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
In years when prices fall, it requires a smaller yield loss to trigger
revenue insurance claims. For example the trigger yield for a Wheat
grower with a 70.4 bushel APH times 70% coverage is 50 bushels based on
the planting price of $4.13. Based on today's lower harvest price this
same Wheat grower will have a claim if yields are below 52.1 bushels or
104.3% of the minimum trigger yield of 50 bushels. Wheat growers may
calculate their trigger yield by multiplying 104.3% times their APH
times the percent insurance coverage they selected. Any yield below
this level will trigger revenue insurance claims. This does not apply
to MPCI-APH. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
An Example Oregon Wheat Claim. A Oregon Wheat grower with a 71.4
bushels APH X 70% coverage X higher of harvest, plant price of $4.13
would have had a revenue guarantee of $206.50. If this grower produced
20 bushels, then based on today's price of $3.96 the revenue to count
would be $79.20 and the indemnity payment would be the difference
between the revenue to count and the revenue guarantee for gross
indemnity payment of $127.30 (before premium deduction). |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
 |
