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Table 1. Estimated Weighted National Marketing Year Average (MYA)
Price and % SURE Price Loss (06/05/09) |
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Note: This page will updated during the marketing year. A more
detailed discussion of this page is posted at: www.AgManager.info |
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Crop |
Wheat |
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Corn |
G. Sorghum |
Soybeans |
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Month1 |
08/09 |
09/010 |
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08/09 |
09/010 |
08/09 |
09/010 |
08/09 |
09/010 |
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Jun |
7.62 |
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Sep |
5.02 |
|
4.60 |
|
10.70 |
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Jul |
7.16 |
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Oct |
4.37 |
|
3.96 |
|
9.94 |
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| |
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Aug |
7.64 |
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Nov |
4.26 |
|
3.68 |
|
9.38 |
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Sep |
7.43 |
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Dec |
4.05 |
|
2.87 |
|
8.97 |
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Oct |
6.67 |
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Jan |
4.36 |
|
3.27 |
|
9.97 |
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Nov |
6.28 |
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Feb |
3.87 |
|
2.83 |
|
9.55 |
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Dec |
5.91 |
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Mar |
3.86 |
|
3.10 |
|
9.12 |
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Jan |
5.90 |
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Apr |
3.85 |
|
3.12 |
|
9.79 |
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Feb |
5.79 |
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May |
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Mar |
5.70 |
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Jun |
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Apr |
5.74 |
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Jul |
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May |
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Aug |
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2008 SURE |
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1 |
KSU Est. 2008/09 NASS Price2 |
$6.78 |
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|
$4.19 |
|
$3.44 |
|
$9.93 |
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2 |
% of 08-09 NASS Price Settled3 |
100% |
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|
81% |
|
82% |
|
86% |
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2008 SURE with Revenue Insurance |
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3 |
2008 RA-HPO Crop Ins. Price4 |
8.60 |
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|
5.40 |
|
5.06 |
|
13.36 |
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4 |
$ Price Loss in SURE Claim |
$1.82 |
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|
$1.21 |
|
$1.62 |
|
$3.43 |
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5 |
% Price Loss in SURE Claim |
21.2% |
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|
22.5% |
|
32.0% |
|
25.7% |
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2008 SURE with APH
Insurance |
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6 |
2008 APH Crop Ins. Price Elect. |
4.90 |
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|
4.75 |
|
4.45 |
|
11.50 |
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7 |
$ Price Loss in SURE Claim |
(1.88) |
|
|
0.56 |
|
1.01 |
|
1.57 |
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8 |
% Price Loss in SURE Claim |
(38.4%) |
|
|
11.9% |
|
22.7% |
|
13.7% |
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2009 SURE |
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9 |
KSU Est. 2009/10 NASS Price2 |
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$6.47 |
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|
$4.51 |
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$4.25 |
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$9.04 |
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10 |
% of 08-09 NASS Price Settled5 |
|
0% |
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|
0% |
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0% |
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0% |
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2009 SURE with Revenue Insurance |
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10 |
2009 RA-HPO, GRIP, CRC. Price6 |
|
8.77 |
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|
4.04 |
|
3.56 |
|
8.80 |
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11 |
$ Price Loss in SURE Claim |
|
2.30 |
|
|
(0.47) |
|
(0.69) |
|
(0.24) |
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12 |
% Price Loss in SURE Claim |
|
26.2% |
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(11.6%) |
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(19.5%) |
|
(2.8%) |
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2009 SURE with APH
Insurance |
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13 |
2008 APH Crop Ins. Price Elect. |
|
7.35 |
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|
4.00 |
|
3.85 |
|
9.90 |
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14 |
$ Price Loss in SURE Claim |
|
0.88 |
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|
(0.51) |
|
(0.40) |
|
0.86 |
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15 |
% Price Loss in SURE Claim |
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12.0% |
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(12.7%) |
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(10.5%) |
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8.6% |
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1NASS
Published Prices. |
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2The
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) USDA, 2008-09
marketing year is a weighted National Marketing Year Average (MYA)
price of monthly cash prices used to settle claims on the 2008 SURE
program. The 2009-10 MYA price will be used to settle claims on the
2009 SURE program. |
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3The
estimated 2008-09 MYA price is nearly complete for wheat because the
wheat marketing year starts June 1 through May 31 while the
marketing year for the other crops is September 1 through August 31
therefore the 2008-09 MYA price for corn, grain sorghum and soybeans
is less complete than wheat. |
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4The Analysis assumes revenue insured
growers will use the revenue price in their revenue insurance
contract to set their SURE guarantees. In most cases revenue
insurance pays claims at the higher of the planting price or the
harvest price. For 2008 winter wheat the harvest price was higher,
$8.60 for Revenue Assurance with the Harvest Price Option (RA-HPO)
and $7.88 for Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) and Group Risk Income
Protection with Harvest Revenue Option (GRIP-HRO). The lower price
on CRC and GRIP-HRO was caused by the $2 price limit, while RA-HPO
did not have a price limit until 2009. RA and GRIP settlement price
was lower at $5.88. |
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5The 2009-10 MYA has not started
therefore the percent complete is zero. The table will be update as
NASS posts the most current monthly prices. The KSU estimated
2009-10 MYA is based on the deferred futures contracts after an
adjustment for basis. Basis was estimated based on the prior 24
months of NASS monthly average prices versus the monthly average
price of the deferred nearby futures contract. The basis was
calculated in percentage to adjust for nominal price increases.
Estimated weights were estimated based on the prior 5 year history. |
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6Analysis
assumes revenue insured growers will use the revenue price in their
revenue insurance contract to set their SURE guarantees. In most
cases revenue insurance prices are higher than APH price but not for
2009 soybeans, grain and cotton. Unless the harvest price increases
APH price will be higher and any SURE claims will be paid at a
higher level under APH, even though revenue insured farmers paid
higher premiums. |
