Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 

State Rank and Crop Most Likely to Collect ACRE Payments[1]

Today August 14 is the final day to sign up for ACRE.  If you want to elect ACRE then you need to go to the FSA office today.  They will take care of any farmer that is in line.

In the tables are all of the states/crops analyzed by KSU ranked by the most likely to pay.  The larger the percentage of projected gross percentage of guaranteed lost, the deeper ACRE is in the money and the more likely to pay.  For example Oklahoma wheat is very likely to pay with a value of 40.2% (payment capped at 25%), while Colorado wheat is way out of the money at negative 37.8% and very unlikely to pay.

If projected gross percentage of guaranteed lost is over 20% then the odds favor payment, if less than 10%, then it is less likely, and flip a coin for the rest of the states.  The NASS yield will change from Wednesday’s estimate, there were no NASS irrigated yields, NASS did not publish yield estimates for some of the smaller states, and the price forecast is for the next year starting September 1.  I had to estimate all of those missing values, and that means there is error in all of this work.  The missing values were the main reason it required a lot more time to update all of the models than I expected.  But this is my best estimate today based all of the information that I have available.

Table 3.  ACRE Soybean Estimates Ranked in Order of States Most Likely to Make ACRE Payments (Combined Yields Only).  States with Irrigated & Non-irrigated Practice are not included.