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   Home / Crops / Insurance / Risk Management

Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial and no warranty is given or implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider whether such marketing strategies are appropriate for his or her situation. This web page does not represent the views of Kansas State University. 
Estimated Weighted National Average Price and Projected    
Percent ACRE Price loss 2/10/2010            
                Sorg-hum Soy-beans      
            Wheat Corn      
1 07-08 NASS Published Price1   6.48 4.20 4.08 10.10      
2 08-09 NASS Published Price1   6.78 4.06 3.20 9.97      
3 % of 08-09 NASS Price Settled2 100% 100% 100% 100%      
ACRE                      
4 2009 ACRE Strike Price, Average of 2007/08 & 2008/09 MYA Price 6.63 4.13 3.64 10.04      
               
5 Assume an "Average" State Yield, 2009 ACRE Payment Price X 90%3 5.97 3.72 3.28 9.03      
               
6 Assuming an "Average" Yield, Maximum ACRE Price to Exceed the 25% Cap on Payments4 4.48 2.79 2.46 6.77      
               
               
7 KSU Est. 2009/10 on Aug 14, 2009 5.16 3.24 2.91 9.67      
    Plus or Minus 0.78 0.65 0.44 1.78      
8 USDA Estimate of the 2009/10 MYA NASS price and range of price (February 9, 2010)5 4.85 3.70 3.30 9.45      
4.75 3.45 3.10 8.70      
  4.95 3.95 3.50 10.20      
9 KSU Forecast of the 2009/10 New Crop MYA Price and range of price6   5.01 3.58 3.12 9.46      
    4.26 2.86 2.66 7.72      
    5.76 4.29 3.59 11.20      
10 % of 08-09 NASS Price Settled2 61% 19% 15% 27%      
11 $ ACRE in (out) of the Money   0.96 0.14 0.15 (0.43)      
12 % ACRE in (out) of the Money   14.5% 3.4% 4.2% (4.3%)      
  Next Year's Cup & Cap                
13 Min 09/10 Price to trigger 10% Cup 5.15 3.37 3.35 8.09      
14 Max 09/10 Price to trigger 10% Cap 6.35 4.12 4.01 9.90      
                       
NASS Monthly Wheat Prices and Historical Weights7        
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
  Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Jun 3.55 10.9% 3.23 11.9% 3.98 16.0% 5.03 12.0% 7.62 11.4% 5.74  
Jul 3.37 12.4% 3.20 16.8% 3.88 18.5% 5.17 27.1% 7.15 21.8% 5.13  
Aug 3.27 9.0% 3.24 13.4% 3.91 12.6% 5.64 18.7% 7.61 14.9% 4.83  
Sep 3.36 11.0% 3.36 11.7% 4.06 6.9% 6.76 9.4% 7.43 7.8% 4.48  
Oct 3.43 7.0% 3.43 6.3% 4.59 9.1% 7.65 4.5% 6.65 3.8% 4.47  
Nov 3.46 7.8% 3.45 4.7% 4.59 4.8% 7.39 3.8% 6.29 3.2% 4.79  
Dec 3.40 8.6% 3.53 8.1% 4.52 6.8% 7.71 5.9% 5.95 6.9% 4.85  
Jan 3.43 9.7% 3.52 8.4% 4.53 8.2% 7.96 7.8% 6.20 7.4% 4.79  
Feb 3.36 9.5% 3.66 6.2% 4.71 5.1% 10.10 3.9% 5.79 4.3%    
Mar 3.42 7.1% 3.79 5.1% 4.75 4.9% 10.50 3.1% 5.71 6.6%    
Apr 3.35 3.4% 3.81 3.4% 4.89 4.2% 10.10 2.0% 5.75 5.3%    
May 3.31 3.6% 4.09 4.0% 4.88 2.9% 8.87 1.8% 5.84 6.6%    
                         
NASS Monthly Corn Prices and Historical Weights7        
Month 2004-2005      2005-2006      2006-2007      2007-2008      2008-2009      2009-2010   
  Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 2.20 7.8% 1.90 7.4% 2.20 6.9% 3.28 7.9% 5.01 4.5% 3.25  
Oct 2.14 11.7% 1.82 11.3% 2.55 14.7% 3.29 13.7% 4.37 9.4% 3.61  
Nov 2.05 11.7% 1.77 8.9% 2.88 14.6% 3.44 11.1% 4.26 11.9% 3.65  
Dec 2.04 8.6% 1.92 7.9% 3.01 8.0% 3.77 8.7% 4.11 8.9% 3.59  
Jan 2.12 12.4% 2.00 15.4% 3.05 15.3% 3.98 16.5% 4.36 12.8% 3.45  
Feb 1.95 8.4% 2.02 8.2% 3.44 5.9% 4.54 7.3% 3.87 6.4%    
Mar 2.02 8.2% 2.06 6.8% 3.43 6.6% 4.70 7.5% 3.85 9.6%    
Apr 2.00 5.2% 2.11 6.4% 3.39 4.4% 5.14 6.2% 3.85 6.7%    
May 1.98 5.9% 2.17 6.4% 3.49 4.7% 5.27 4.6% 3.96 9.1%    
Jun 2.03 7.2% 2.14 6.9% 3.53 6.6% 5.47 6.1% 4.01 7.4%    
Jul 2.11 7.0% 2.14 7.5% 3.32 6.2% 5.25 6.4% 3.60 6.9%    
Aug 1.95 5.9% 2.09 6.9% 3.26 6.1% 5.26 4.0% 3.33 6.4%    
                         
NASS Monthly Grain Sorghum Prices and Historical Weights ($/bu)7    
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
  Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 2.00 5.0% 1.91 7.1% 2.40 4.1% 3.46 8.1% 4.47 3.9% 3.15  
Oct 1.78 7.4% 1.67 9.4% 2.89 12.2% 3.46 13.7% 3.86 3.1% 3.11  
Nov 1.71 15.2% 1.58 19.1% 3.26 23.3% 3.51 19.8% 3.63 11.4% 3.18  
Dec 1.67 17.3% 1.63 15.9% 3.41 9.6% 3.88 15.4% 2.87 17.2% 3.20  
Jan 1.65 13.8% 1.77 13.8% 3.53 12.2% 4.14 14.9% 3.18 15.1% 3.10  
Feb 1.66 10.2% 1.90 7.0% 3.89 7.7% 4.68 6.3% 2.82 7.3%    
Mar 1.70 5.7% 1.98 5.1% 3.63 1.5% 5.06 4.6% 3.00 13.0%    
Apr 1.66 3.8% 2.07 5.2% 3.34 1.0% 5.21 4.0% 3.12 6.0%    
May 1.71 3.1% 2.25 4.3% 3.63 1.6% 5.22 2.1% 3.35 9.1%    
Jun 2.11 6.4% 2.21 1.7% 3.42 5.1% 5.66 3.1% 3.52 3.4%    
Jul 2.21 6.8% 2.58 6.7% 3.09 7.8% 5.07 4.5% 2.91 5.4%    
Aug 2.07 5.3% 2.44 4.7% 3.32 13.9% 4.70 3.5% 3.01 5.1%    
                         
NASS Monthly Soybean Prices and Historical Weights7        
Month 2004-2005    2005-2006    2006-2007    2007-2008    2008-2009    2009-2010 
  Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight Price Weight
Sep 5.83 7.7% 5.77 7.4% 5.23 5.6% 8.15 10.4% 10.80 5.1% 9.75  
Oct 5.56 15.0% 5.67 19.9% 5.52 19.9% 8.36 21.1% 9.95 21.0% 9.44  
Nov 5.36 10.4% 5.62 6.2% 6.08 10.2% 9.42 10.7% 9.39 6.9% 9.53  
Dec 5.45 9.4% 5.78 9.2% 6.18 8.8% 10.00 8.2% 9.24 7.1% 9.80  
Jan 5.57 12.2% 5.87 14.1% 6.37 15.1% 9.95 17.3% 9.97 15.4% 9.49  
Feb 5.42 12.4% 5.67 5.7% 6.87 6.8% 11.70 7.3% 9.54 6.7%    
Mar 5.95 11.0% 5.57 5.9% 6.95 6.2% 11.40 6.3% 9.12 8.9%    
Apr 6.03 4.8% 5.52 5.5% 6.88 5.1% 12.00 4.8% 9.79 10.2%    
May 6.21 4.2% 5.68 6.6% 7.12 5.3% 12.10 3.2% 10.70 6.3%    
Jun 6.58 5.4% 5.62 5.4% 7.51 6.2% 13.10 4.4% 11.40 4.8%    
Jul 6.65 3.4% 5.61 6.4% 7.56 5.5% 13.30 4.4% 10.80 4.6%    
Aug 6.15 4.1% 5.23 7.7% 7.72 5.3% 12.80 1.9% 10.80 3.0%    
1NASS Published Prices.  The NASS 2008-09 marketing year is a weighted Marketing Year Average (MYA) price.  The 2008-09 MYA price is averaged with the 2007-08 MYA price to set the strike price for the 2009 ACRE program.  Also the 2008-09 MYA price is used to settle claims on the 2008 SURE programs. 
2The 2008-09 MYA price is complete.  The wheat marketing year starts June 1 through May 31 while the marketing year for the other crops is September 1 through August 31.
3The 2009/10 MYA price would need to fall below the strike price to trigger assuming the state yield is equal to the state Olympic 5 year average yield.
4The maximum 2009/10 MYA price necessary to hit the 25% of coverage payment limit.  Once the ACRE 25% of coverage payment limit is hit, then prices will need to fall below 70% times the loan rate ($1.365 for corn) to trigger additional payments because there is no counter cyclical payment. The maximum price will be lower for farmers over the $73,000 payment limit.
5USDA forecasted price released on February 9, 2009.
6It is assumed the market traded nearby futures prices adjusted for percentage monthly basis for MYA cash price over the past 24 months, is the best current estimate of the MYA price to settle ACRE claims.  Therefore, the analysis is based on the KSU estimated price rather than the USDA estimated price published by the Office of the Chief Economist.
7Historical NASS yields and prices are published annually.  The current Marketing Year Average prices are updated monthly.  After the marketing year ends, NASS will publish the weights.  The wheat weights will be published in July and the fall crop weights will be published in September for MYA 2009/10.
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Department of Agricultural Economics   K-State Research & Extension   College of Agriculture   Kansas State University