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Selling Covered Put
Options
Dear Art,
We had a crop
insurance meeting last night with farmers and another one this morning so we
missed your webinar. Also wished I could come to your Wyoming RAMII
meeting. Is there any way I could purchase that presentation? I am amazed
at some of the ideas you come up with in your presentations. I learn
amazing things to say to my producers.
Let me know if
anything is available for purchase.
Thanks
Southern Crop
Insurance Agent
Dear Agent,
Thanks for your note.
I knew this was a bad schedule time for insurance agents but I had a request
for a Webinar on selling covered CME puts with crop insurance. After doing
a quick survey, we found a number of people were interested in participating
in a webinar.
The RAMII workshop
would not work in a Webinar format and I think a video would not work well
either. The real learning from a RAMII workshop is it allows participants
to make real time decisions as close to the real thing without risking real
money. Perhaps we could do an abbreviated RAMII at the 4State crop
insurance workshop in the fall. I normally have requests to do RAMII
workshops in other states that are either sponsored or they depend on
registration fees for funding. I do have a few restrictions on accepting
sponsorship. I too wish you could come to the Wyoming RAMII workshop but
next year I will have at least two workshops in Kansas and probably a few
workshops out of state.
A recording of the
Webinar is available for the same $25 fee as the live Webinar. A recorded
copy of the Webinar was included in the Webinar registration fee. The link
to obtain a recorded copy of the Webinar and “handout” materials is listed
below.
Many people are
probably still trying to get their arms around the idea that one can use
insurance deductible bushels to cover selling out of the money CME puts.
There once was a meat processer who claimed they “processed every part of
the hog but the squeal”. Selling CME out of the money puts covered with
production exceeding the APH or Revenue Protection (RP) payments is way to
use the deductible bushels in the RP coverage. If one multiplies the corn
RP strike price (price election) of $6.01 times 75% coverage level the
“effective” strike price is $4.51 and $10.12 for soybeans ($13.49 X 75%)
with production equal to the APH. Selecting 85% coverage will increase the
“effective” strike price for corn to $5.11 (85% X $6.01) and $11.47 for
soybeans (85% X $13.49). If the harvest price is equal to or less than the
“effective” strike price, then the deductible disappears and a claim does
not require an insurable yield loss (loss of guaranteed bushels.
A 75% insured corn
farmer’s deductible will disappear if the harvest price falls below $4.51.
If this farmer were to forward contract (HTA, futures) all of the guaranteed
bushels (few farmers would be willing to forward price all guaranteed
bushels), and sells 1/3 of their Yield Adjusted Asian (YAA) puts on the
Board at a $4.80 strike price for 29 cents, then the contracted bushels and
CME sold puts are covered with either insurance or bushels. Note that the
29 cent CME put premium would fund the first dollar of margin loss on the
sold $4.80 put. Then if production is equal to or less than the APH yield
and a harvest price is below $4.51 that will trigger crop insurance
payments. If production exceeds the APH then there are additional bushels
to cover the net marginal losses on the put. However, as the harvest price
falls below $4.81 it will require even more bushels above the APH not to
trigger crop insurance payments. For example at $4 the crop production will
need to be more than 112% times the APH yield in order to avoid an insurance
claim.
If the harvest price
is greater than $6.01 then either farmers will produce enough bushels to
fill the forward contracts (HTA or futures) or the insurance will pay the
production loss at the higher harvest price (in most states the harvest
price for corn will equal the October average closing price of the December
CME corn futures). In additional the sold CME puts will expire worthless
and farmers would retain the put premium as additional profit. There is a
small open coverage window on corn because in most states the RP YAA puts
expire on November 1, while CME December corn options expire on about
November 26. Revenue Protection YAA options and CME November Soybean
options expire in the same month of October in most states.
Farmers with 75% RP
coverage who produce an average crop (yield equals APH yield) and the
harvest price falls below $6.01 but the harvest price is greater than $4.80,
then the bushels that were contracted were sold at a price higher than the
harvest price and farmers would retain put premiums from the sold CME put
options that expired worthless as additional profits.
For farmers with
option trading experience, this is an effective way to sell out of the money
CME puts and be covered with either insurance or yields greater than their
APH. Some farmers who plan to sell out of the money CME puts are
considering increasing their RP coverage because that will also increase
their “effective” strike price in RP. Selling puts does not limit any
forward contract sales because those sales would have been sold at a higher
price than the harvest price otherwise there would be no net margin losses
on the sold puts. Out of money options trade in a “very thin” market, so
one should only submit limit orders and never submit market orders.
Selling puts are
covered but if one were to sell calls they are not covered if all of the
guaranteed bushels have been forward contracted. Also CME calls have
unlimited liability while the YAA calls in RP have a price limit equal to
two times the base price, $12.02 for corn. If there price were to fall and
cause net margin losses on the sold puts, then it is also more likely that
ACRE and SURE payments from USDA may also be triggered.
The YAA put equals an
at the money CME put if and only if the farmer’s production equals the
guaranteed bushels (75% X APH) while the YAA call equals the at the money
CME call if and only if production equals zero. Otherwise, the RP YAA
options will have less value at expiration than CME options at expiration.
Farmers who have no
experience trading option should not considered selling covered puts. They
have some “homework” to do first. First there are self study material
provided by the CME and a number of text books have been written on
options. Many University Extension Services and Community Colleges offer
classes on options. We offer an all day RAMII workshop that allows workshop
participants to make these crop insurance and option decisions in a
simulated case farm study. Finally the best way to learn anything is to do
it. So sell one option and tract all of the results. One can learn just as
much selling one put option as they will selling 10 options. Farmers with
no option trading experience should not bet the farm that they understand
all of the risks of selling covered puts.
Summary.
The crop insurance example used in this paper was 75% RP. Farmers can
increase their RP coverage level and increase their effective strike price
in RP. That will allow farmers to sell covered CME puts at a higher strike
price that will sell for a higher premium. Also price risk covers all
production so the enterprise unit will have the same price losses as an
optional unit. Because an enterprise unit has a larger share of the crop
insurance premium paid by the Risk Management Agency combined with an
additional enterprise unit premium discount, farmers can often increase
their coverage level and pay less premium than they do for a lower coverage
level with optional units. However, with an enterprise unit farmers reduce
their deductible and increase their effective RP strike price. Often
farmers will add additional private hail coverage when they purchase an
enterprise unit. There are cases where the enterprise unit is not an
effective alternative and is an insurance issue farmers should discuss with
their agent.
A recording of crop
insurance webinar on Yield Adjusted Asian Options is available. One will
receive the webinar recording and the associated analysis, handouts and
materials. To purchase a recording of the webinar and associated materials
for $25:
http://commerce.cashnet.com/ksuagecon
The KSU Ag Econ web
page is located at:
http://www.AgManager.info
If you have any
problems with the website then Dr. Rich Llewelyn can probably help you. His
email is
rvl@ksu.edu
or phone 785.532.1504.
If you have other
comments, please email me at:
abarnaby@agecon.ksu.edu
Thanks
Art
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