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Atached is the flyer for that event in Kansas City, August 3-4 … ASFMRA.
htps://www.asfmra.org/events/event-descrip�on?CalendarEventKey=451923eb-776b-410f-85f9-
0187eca0d5b7&Home=%2fchapters%2fchapter-mee�ngs … longer our KSU liaison and events coordinator. Gabe Simpson …
April 1, 2008
KFMA Newsletters
this newsletter:
¾ Transitioning the Family Farm—Wants … Kansas State University
TRANSITIONING THE FAMILY FARM—
WANTS … in, or
affected by, the transition. During the winter of …
September 30, 2019
KFMA Newsletters
sometimes difficult to
start, in transition planning.
Nicole Masters … huge benefit to help
with transition planning. Two important questions … into the operation, so
each transition plan is different and will …
December 1, 2016
KFMA Research
2
by estimating the probability of transitioning from financial stability … 2014 was used to estimate the probability of
transitioning to several different fina …
December 1, 2015
KFMA Newsletters
Tim Stucky‐ South Central KFMA Association
By nearly any financial measure the average KFMA South Central farm made significant financial progress in recent
years, and in particular from 2007‐2013. During that time period the average Association net farm income was
$120,049, with net farm income in both 2012 and 2013 exceeding $150,000. The lowest net farm income during those
seven years occurred in 2009 at $85,983. As a comparison, the previous seven year period, from 2000 to 2006, the
average net farm income was only $37,797.
Working capital as measured by the current ratio, current assets/current liabilities, peaked in 2012 at 3.32. This
compares to the 2.0 ratio seen as recently as 2006. Working capital measured simply in absolute dollar amounts peaked
in 2013 at $311,546; compared to $110,244 in 2006. All in all the growth has been quite impressive. In fact, while I
http://www.agmanager.info/kfma/ November 2015 E‐newsletter …
March 1, 2009
Animal Well-Being
8
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Westland/Hallmark; Chino, CA Event:
LexisLexis--Nexis Media … 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 200720072007 …
November 26, 2010
8
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Westland/Hallmark; Chino, CA Event:
LexisLexis--Nexis Media … 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 200720072007 …
December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ices lower. Record World total wheat
supplies of 944.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from the previous record of 918.7 mmt in “old crop”
MY 2014/15, and from 892.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. These are the three highest years of World wheat
production on record. Projected record World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 227.3 mmt
(31.7% S/U – 14 year high) are up from 211.7 mmt (29.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 193.6
mmt (27.7% S/U) in MY 2013/14. For perspective, these supply‐demand figures are comparable to the 38 year
low World wheat ending stocks of 128.8 mmt and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 21.0% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. November USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On November 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2015
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, and the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May
31, 2016.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures
Since market highs of $6.40 ¼ per bushel for the CME MARCH 2016 Kansas hard red winter wheat futures
contract that occurred on June 30, 2015, MARCH 2016 futures have trended sharply (Figure 1). The slow pace
of U.S. wheat exports (caused by record large World wheat production prospects in “new crop” MY 2015/16,
and the historically high value of the U.S. dollar) has been the key factor causing the recent sharp decline in
CME MARCH 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures prices.
Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
hest
level in 14 years (since MY 2001/02). The 38‐year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.6 mmt and percent
ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.9% S/U occurred in the last major “short crop” marketing year in MY 2007/08.
There are ongoing concerns in the World wheat market about a) potential wheat production problems and
supply prospects in the Black Sea region and elsewhere), b) foreign geopolitical changes and conflicts, and c)
spillover impacts from volatile World economic, financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over
supply” situation currently existing in World & U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative
influence on World wheat prices. For wheat prices are to recover significantly before summer‐2016 it is likely
that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising
U.S. wheat ending stocks, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made no adjustments in its supply‐
demand forecasts for U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb)
production, 2.930 bb total supplies, 800 million bushels (mb) of exports, 2.019 bb of total use, 911 mb ending
stocks, and 45.1% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10). A price range of
$4.80‐$5.20 /bu was forecast with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu –the lowest level since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “new crop” MY 2015/16: Two possible domestic wheat market scenarios are
forecast by Kansas State University for “new crop” MY 2015/16: A) “Lower Exports” Scenario: 80% prob. of the
same U.S. wheat supply estimates as the USDA, but with U.S. exports dropping below “old crop” 2014/15
levels to 750 mb exports, with 961 mb ending stocks, 48.8% S/U, and $4.85 /bu U.S. average price; and B)
“Higher Exports” Scenario: 20% prob. of supply prospects again equal to the USDA’s, but with higher U.S.
wheat exports, i.e., 900 mb exports, with 811 mb ending stocks, 38.3% S/U, and $5.85 /bu U.S. average price.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA
provided a forecast of U.S. wheat market outlook for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June
1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 53.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.644 ma from
2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 44.9 ma would be down 2.194 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of
45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.060 bb (up
marginally vs 2015), with 2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.096 bb (up from 2.930 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16). With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.198 bb, and ending stocks of 928 mb (42.8%
S/U), U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.40 /bu – down from $5.00 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and will last
through 5/31/2016.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures
Since a market high of $6.40 ¼ per bushel for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures contract on June 30, 2015, MARCH 2016 futures have trended sharply
lower (Figure 1). The slow pace of U.S. wheat exports (caused by record large World wheat supply prospects
in “new crop” MY 2015/16, and the historically high value of the U.S. dollar) has been the key factor causing
the recent sharp decline in “current crop” CME MARCH 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures prices.
Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
September 6, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
perspective on how historically large World total wheat stocks and World wheat percent stocks‐to‐use
are, the 34‐year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.7 mmt and at least a 57‐year low in percent ending
stocks‐to‐use of 20.9% S/U both occurred in MY 2007/08, the last major World wheat “short crop” marketing
year. The “large crop‐over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a
strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices.
The broader “large supply – low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “masking” or “obscuring”
at least a couple of other significant issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in the World is plentiful,
the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor may help U.S. Hard Red Spring wheat
markets and other sources of moderate to high protein wheat in the U.S. and abroad. Second, while the
supply of wheat in World markets overall is growing, the supply of wheat in the “World Less China” is
projected to have “contracted” in “current crop” MY 2016/17 compared to a year ago to the tightest supply
situation since MY 2013/14.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming months and early in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices recover significantly by spring‐summer
2017. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening or “moderating” in
recent months – also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, resulting in higher U.S.
wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and causing U.S. and Kansas wheat cash prices to fall sharply
– down to the marketing loan rate in most of Kansas.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.816 million acres (ma) – down 3.828 ma (‐7.0%) from 2015. The USDA also forecast
2016 harvested acres of 44.093 ma which would be down 3.001 ma (‐6.4%) vs 2015. Based on projected 2016
U.S. wheat yields of 52.6 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be
2.321 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with total supplies of 3.417 bb (up from 2.917 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16),
and total use of 2.317 bb (up from 1.936 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “current crop” MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.100 bb (vs 981 mb a
year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 47.5% S/U (vs 50.7% last year). U.S. wheat average prices are
Page | 2
projected to be in the range of $3.35 to $4.05 (midpoint = $3.70 /bu) – down from $4.89 /bu in “old crop” MY
2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that these USDA projections
for “current crop” MY 2016/17 have an 80% probability of occurring.
Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, one potential KSU‐Scenario for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices is presented for “current
crop” MY 2016/17 – and is given a 20% probability of occurring. Assuming the same 2016 acreage, yields,
imports, and production as USDA, as well as food and seed use, the alternative scenarios assumes a) higher
U.S. wheat exports (1.075 bb vs 985 mb by USDA), and b) lower feed and residual use (320 mb vs 330 mb by
USDA).
KSU “Higher Exports with Spring 2017 U.S. Wheat Development Problems” Scenario (20% probability) assumes
for “current crop” MY 2016/17: 2.321 bb production, 3.417 bb total supplies, 1.075 bb exports, 320 mb feed &
residual use, 1.396 bb ending stocks, 40.50% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat
supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume a 5% decline in
U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage in 2017 (with a 7% decline for U.S. winter wheat, and no changes
for other spring wheat and durum wheat classes. These KSU projections also assume at least a continued
moderation in the value of the U.S. dollar during the “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, with some
improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result.
KSU Scenario A) “Trend Yield, Higher Exports” Scenario (65% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 48.258 ma planted, 41.873 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 2.072 bb production, 3.287 bb total
supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 250 mb feed & residual use, 2.286 bb total use, 1.001 bb ending stocks, 43.79%
S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and
KSU Scenario B) “Lower Yield, Average Exports” Scenario (35% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 48.258 ma planted, 41.873 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac lower yield, 1.922 bb production, 3.137 bb total
supplies, 980 mb exports, 240 mb feed & residual use, 2.256 bb total use, 881 mb ending stocks, 39.05% S/U,
& $4.35 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…