K-State AgManager.info website
  About     Contributors     Useful links     Site map      Feedback  

Search AgManager.Info:

 

K-State AgManager.info website
Agribusiness
Crops
Energy
Farm Management
Livestock & Meat
Policy
Decision Tools
--------------------
Ag Econ News
Contributors
Programs
Sponsors
Upcoming Events
Presentations Archive
Reposting Policy
--------------------
K-State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
--------------------
Department Theses & Dissertations
--------------------
KFMA
--------------------
SIGN-UP for Weekly Email Updates
--------------------
--------------------
--------------------
PFT
AgManager.info: Grain Outlook
AgManager.info: Crops
   Home / Crops

Marketing

Insurance
 and Risk

Projected
Budgets

Production
Economics

Links to Other
Crop Information

Grain Market Outlook Risk Management Non-Irrigated Crops Production Enterprise Summaries
KSRN Grain Market Interview Decision Tools Irrigated Crops Precision Ag Policy
Crop Basis Tool & Maps Interest Rate Forecasts   Decision Tools Storage & Handling
Decision Tools       Other Crop Links
World Grain Supply and Demand        

PDF: Current Grain Outlook
 

Focused on Grains Blog, by Dan O'Brien

KSRN Radio Interview

Previous Grain Outlooks

Grain Market Outlook

Corn Market Outlook in April 2016

April 25, 2016


Summary

Since the USDA's April 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, corn futures have traded first sharply higher through early in the day on Thursday, April 21st, but then fell sharply through April 22nd – giving back much of the prices increases since the WASDE report was released.  With a third consecutive large U.S. corn crop in the 13.6 to 14.2 billion bushel (bb) range in 2015 along with sizable foreign coarse grain crops in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, it will be difficult for corn futures prices to rise to $4.25-$4.50+ by May-June 2016 unless a) unexpected late season corn production problems are shown to have occured South America, b) larger than expected U.S. corn usage occurs in response to low U.S. and World corn prices during the March-May 2016 quarter, and/or c) significant planting and establishment problems occur for the 2016 U.S. corn crop – leading to reduced corn acreage and production prospects.  Low corn prices and limited corn net returns prospects may reduce U.S. 2016 corn acreage and production prospects.

Market factors such as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets, b) U.S. farmer resistance to selling at low late-April and May 2016 cash corn prices, and c) concerns about possible “El Nino” or “El Nino-La Nina transition”- related weather patterns in spring-summer 2016 with an eye toward their possible negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn market prices through summer-fall 2016.  Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users – leading to strong domestic and foreign feedgrain usage and providing underlying support for U.S. corn exports.  In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S. dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S. corn exports – although the U.S. dollar has been trending lower in recent weeks.  

USDA Estimate for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total supplies of 15.382 bb for MY 2015/16.  Total use is projected to be 13.521 bb (down 24 million bushels or ‘mb’)  Ethanol use was projected to be 5.250 bb (up 25 mb), with non-ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use of 1.371 bb (up 1 mb), exports of 1.650 bb, and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (down 25 mb).  Ending stocks are forecast to be up 25 mb to 1.862 bb (13.77% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 – up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14.  U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.40-$3.70 /bu. ($3.55 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13. 

Adjusted USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: An adjusted version of the USDA’s “next crop” MY 2016/17 forecast for U.S. corn is presented here, building on the information presented by the USDA at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25-26, with 2015 U.S. corn planted acres matching the higher March 31st Prospective Planting report planted acreage forecast.   Projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 85.413 ma would be up 4.664 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be a record 14.349 billion bushels (bb) – up from 13.829 bb in 2013, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.601 bb in 2015.   With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.725 bb (2nd highest behind 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15), and projected ending stocks of 2.486 bb (18.11% S/U) – up from 1.862 bb (13.77% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.45 /bu – down from the $3.55 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16 and subject to lowering in future USDA WASDE reports. This scenario is given a 35% likelihood of occurring by KSU.

KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.5 ma downward adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report.  A) KSU-Scenario A (Lower Acres & Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 92.101 ma planted, 84.404 ma harvested, 164.5 bu/ac yield, 13.825 bb production, 15.727 bb total supplies, 13.640 bb total use, 2.087 bb ending stocks, 15.30% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn average price;  B) KSU-Scenario B (Lower Acres & Moderate Drought) (25% prob.) assumes 92.101 ma planted, 84.404 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.279 bb production, 15.186 bb total supplies, 13.575 bb total use, 1.611 bb ending stocks, 11.87% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn price;  and C) KSU-Scenario C (Lower Acres & Extreme Drought) (10% prob.) assumes 92.101 ma planted, 84.404 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.607 bb production, 14.519 bb total supplies, 13.382 bb total use, 1.137 bb ending stocks, 8.5% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn price.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 1,179.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “current” MY 2015/16, down from 1,187.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,123.9 mmt in MY 2013/14.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 208.9 mmt (21.5% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 are up from 207.6 mmt (21.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 175.0 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.  


I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports

On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing years.  The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.  The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. corn supply-demand and price projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY 2016/17) provided by the USDA at the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25-26, 2016.

Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.  The USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet.  Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this report to update the USDA’s corn production and supply-demand projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May 10th USDA WASDE report when it releases its own updated U.S. corn supply-demand and price projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17.

I-B. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends

Since lows of $3.54 ¼ on January 7th and $3.54 ½ on March 3rd, MAY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices have traded both lower and higher.  On March 31st when the USDA released it’s Prospective Plantings report, CME MAY 2016 corn dropped as low as $3.47 ½ before closing at $3.51 ½ for the day.  On April 12th, the day on which the WASDE report was released, CME MAY 2016 corn futures opened at $3.57, traded in a range of $3.56 ¾ to $3.65 ½, and closed $0.06 higher at $3.62 ¾.  Since that day, CME MAY Corn traded in a range of a low of $3.63 on April 13th, to a high of $4.02 on April 21st, before closing at $3.71 ¾ on April 22nd (Figure 1).  

Figure 1. MAY & DECEMBER 2016 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts

Since lows of $3.74 ½ on January 7th and $3.73 ¼ on March 3rd, DEC 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices have traded both lower and higher.  On March 31st when the USDA released it’s Prospective Plantings report, CME DEC 2016 corn dropped as low as $3.64 ¾ before closing at $3.68 ¾ for the day.  On April 12th, the day on which the WASDE report was released, CME DEC 2016 corn futures opened at $3.68 ½, and traded in a range of $3.68 ¼ to $3.74 ¾  and closed $0.05 ½ higher at $3.74 ¼.   Since that day, CME DEC Corn traded in a range of a low of $3.73 on April 13th, to a high of $4.09 on April 21st, before closing at $3.81 on April 22nd (Figure 1).    

I-C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends (Figure 2).  In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements have been inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns.  Steady-to-declining prices during September 2015-February 2016 were followed by a sharp decline in February 2016, differing from the historic pattern of harvest lows in October followed by rising prices thereafter.  Corn prices are forecast to trade higher from mid-March through August 2016 by USDA futures and basis history-based corn price models.

Figure 2. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “Current” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info)

I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

Appreciation in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. trading partner countries began in earnest in August 2014 when the dollar index was valued at 77.2692 on August 15th.  This upward trend continued through January 2016 with the index climbing to a high of 95.8011 on January 20th  - an increase of 24.0% from mid-August 2014 (Figure 3).  Since then a moderate decline occurred in early February 2016, followed by a sideways-to-lower trend through mid-April 2016.   On April 15, 2016 the U.S. Dollar index was calculated to be 89.5623 – down 6.5% from the January 20th high of 95.8011. 

The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid-2014 is significant negative factor in U.S. corn and other U.S. grain export markets.  A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets).  Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a very important one – working against U.S. corn being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World grain trade. 

Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM)                     
(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

I-E. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet for the MY 2008/09 through “current” MY 2015/16 period, with adjusted projections by the USDA and Kansas State University for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  United States’ corn harvested and planted acreage for the year 2000 – projected 2016 period are shown in Figure 4, with U.S. corn yields for 1973 through 2016 are shown in Figure 5.  U.S. corn total supplies for the 2004/05 through projected 2016/17 marketing years are shown in Figure 6.   Table 1 and Figures 4-6 show the growth in U.S. corn production and total supplies since the drought-impacted short crop year of MY 2012/13, and the expectation by the USDA of even larger U.S. corn supplies in “next crop” MY 2016/17.

In the March 31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA has preliminarily projected for year 2016 that there will be higher U.S. corn planted acres at 93.601 million acres or ‘ma’, compared to 87.999 ma in 2015 and 90.597 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Using historic average harvested-to-planted relationships, it can be projected based on the USDA’s planted acres figure that 2016 U.S. corn harvested acres will be 85.413 ma, compared to 80.749 ma in 2015 and 83.136 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  KSU projections for 2016 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres are lower than those of the USDA at this time, with planted acres at 92.101 ma (down 1.500 ma vs USDA), and harvested acres at 84.044 ma (down 1.369 ma vs USDA).  More favorable new crop soybean relative to corn and wet planting conditions in parts of the U.S. corn belt are key factors that make such a downward adjustment in U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage likely to occur. 

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2010/11 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE & February 26th Outlook Conference Forecasts, the March 31st Prospective Plantings report, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

Item

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Current Crop

2015/16

USDA

Prospective Plantings & Ag Outlook Conference 2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Trend Yield 2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Moderate Drought Yield 2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Drought Yield 2016/17

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

35%

30%

25%

10%

Planted Area (million acres)

88.192

91.936

97.291

95.365

90.597

87.999

93.601

92.101

92.101

92.101

Harvested Area (million acres)

81.446

83.879

87.365

87.451

83.136

80.749

85.413

84.044

84.044

84.044

% Harvested/Planted Area

92.4%

91.2%

89.8%

91.7%

91.8%

91.8%

91.4%

91.3%

91.3%

91.3%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

168.0

*164.5

158.0

150.0

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,731

1,862

1,862

1,862

1,862

Production (million bu.)

12,425

12,314

10,755

13,829

14,216

13,601

*14,349

13,825

13,279

12,607

Imports (million bu.)

28

29

160

36

32

50

40

40

45

50

Total Supply (million bu.)

14,161

13,471

11,904

14,686

15,479

15,382

16,211

15,727

15,186

14,519

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

5,019

5,000

4,641

  5,124

5,200

5,250

5,225

5,265

5,250

5,200

Non-ethanol Food, Seed, & Industrial Use (million bu.)

1,407

1,424

1,397

1,369

1,360

1,371

1,375

1,375

1,375

1,360

Exports (million bu.)

1,831

1,539

730

1,920

1,864

1,650

1,700

1,675

1,650

1,650

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

4,777

4,519

4,315

 5,040

5,324

5,250

5,425

5,325

5,300

5,172

Total Use (million bu.)

13,033

12,482

11,083

13,454

13,748

13,545

13,725

13,640

13,575

13,382

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,731

1,837

2,486

2,087

1,611

1,137

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

8.65%

7.92%

7.41%

9.16%

12.59%

13.56%

18.11%

15.30%

11.87%

8.50%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.70

$3.40-$3.70 ($3.55)

$3.45

*$3.20

$3.70

$4.75

 


Figure 4. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2016 as of April 12, 2016 (March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, and the KSU 2016 Planted & Harvested Acres estimate)

 

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2016 as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE, February 26th Outlook Conference Forecasts, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

he USDA has forecast 2016 U.S. corn average yields to be 168.0 bu/ac, down from 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the record high of 171.0 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  The KSU projection for 2016 U.S. corn average yield equals the 1973-2015 trendline projection of 164.5 bu/ac – 3.5 bu/ac less than the USDA’s projection of 168.0 bu/ac. 

Based on these assumptions, with an adjustment in planted acres to equal the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings figure and using other harvested-to-planted acres relationships and the USDA’s yield projection from the February 25-26 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, an adjusted USDA projection of 2016 U.S. corn production to be 14.349 bb is arrived at, up from 13.601 bb in 2015 and the record high of 14.216 bb in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 6). 

With the lower acreage figures and lower yields, there are three alternative probability-weighted KSU U.S. corn production scenarios for 2016.   For KSU Scenario A, at trendline yields of 164.5 bu/ac in 2016, U.S. corn production would equal 13.825 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 30% likelihood of this occurring, compared to a 35% likelihood of the adjusted 2016 USDA projection of 14.349 bb happening.  For KSU Scenario B, if a moderate drought were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with U.S. corn yields declining to 158.0 bu/ac, then 2016 U.S. corn production would equal 13.279 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 25% likelihood of this occurring.  For KSU Scenario C, if a severe drought were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with U.S. corn yields declining to 150.0 bu/ac, then 2016 U.S. corn production would equal 12.607 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 10% likelihood of this occurring (Table 1).

Figure 6. U.S. Corn Total Supplies: MY 2004/05 through MY 2016/17 as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE & February 26th Outlook Conference Forecasts, and the March 31st Prospective Plantings report

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage:  Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.250 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 is up 25 mb from March and would be a record high.  That said, U.S. corn use for ethanol has remained steadily in the range of 5.000 to 5.250 bb for the MY 2010/11 through “old crop” MY 2014/15 period, except for a decline to 4.641 bb during the “short crop / high corn price” 2012/13 marketing year.  Preliminary projections by the USDA are for 5.225 bb of U.S. corn use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 8). 

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 through MY 2016/17 as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE and February 26th USDA Outlook Forum Forecasts

Figure 8 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2015/16 has ranged from 5.142-5.526 bb on a weekly basis during the early September 2015 (i.e., the beginning of the “current” 2015/16 marketing year) through April 15, 2016 time period.  The largest amounts of U.S. ethanol production and subsequent corn use to date in the “current” MY 2015/16 marketing year have occurred during the weeks ending November 20th and December 11th, 2015, and January 8th and March 11th, 2016.

Figure 8. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, corn usage for ethanol production has been on pace to reach approximately 5.267 to 5.325 bb – 17 to 75 mb greater than the USDA’s April 12, 2016 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during this current marketing year.  As a result of these calculations, projected Kansas State University use of U.S. corn for ethanol production in “next crop” 2016/17 under Scenario A (i.e., full production of 13.825 bb) is 5.265 bb – up 40 mb from the USDA 2016 Agricultural Outlook Conference forecast of 5.225 bb for “next crop” MY 2016/17 (Table 1).              

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 9 – which shows the estimated amount of a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS corn equivalent exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

DDGS Feed Use: This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  According to these KSU estimates, since MY 2010/11 an average of approximately 1.049 bbeqwt (billion bushels of equivalent bushel-weights of U.S. corn) with a range of 0.992-1.130 bbeqwt of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year. 

On an annual marketing year basis, these amounts of DDGS equivalent corn bushels fed weight-wise equaled 1.108 bbeqwt in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bbeqwt in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bbeqwt in MY 2012/13, 0.992 bbeqwt in MY 2013/14, 1.032 bbeqwt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.042 bbeqwt in “current” MY 2015/16, with a projection of 1.037 bbeqwt in “next crop” MY 2015/16. 

DDGS Exports: Over the five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in million bushels of corn equivalent weights (mbeqwt) are estimated to have averaged 398 mbeqwt, ranging from 299 to 472 mbeqwt.  On an annual marketing year basis, these amounts DDGS equivalent corn bushels exported weight-wise equaled –326 mbeqwt in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mbeqwt in MY 2011/12, 322 mbeqwt in MY 2012/13, a record high 472 mbeqwt in MY 2013/14, 454 mbeqwt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 458 mbeqwt in “current” MY 2015/16, and a projection of 456 mbeqwt in “next crop” MY 2016/17. 

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments as of April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE & February 26th Outlook Conference Forecasts, and the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report

 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.650 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 are down from 1.864 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.920 bb in MY 2013/14, but are still up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 41 year low (i.e., since MY 1975/76) (Table 1, Figures 7 and 8).  The KSU projection of U.S. corn exports for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is 1.650 bb – down 50 mb from the USDA’s “next crop” MY 2016/17 forecast of 1.700 bb. 

According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of April 14th, through the first 34.5 weeks of “current” MY 2015/16 (34.5 of 52 weeks), 876.5 mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 53.1% of the USDA’s projection of 1.650 bb for “current” MY 2015/16 with 66.3% (34.5/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  An additional 498.5 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the remainder of “current” 2015/16 marketing year – ending August 31, 2016 (the end of “current” MY 2015/16). 

Adding together 876.5 mb in past shipments plus 498.5 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.375 bb, or 83.3% of the USDA’s 1.650 bb U.S. corn export target for “current” MY 2015/16 in the April 12th USDA WASDE report with 83.3% (34.5/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn export shipments will need to average 44.2 mb per week for the remaining 17.5 weeks of the “current” 2015/16 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.650 bb total corn export projection.  For the weeks ending April 7th and April 14th, U.S. corn export shipments of 39.7 mb and 50.5 mb occurred, respectively, averaging near the pace needed to fulfill the USDA’s April 12th export projection by the end of the “current” 2015/16 marketing year.  

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.371 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 (up 1 mb vs the March WASDE) is projected to be greater than 1.360 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (also up 1 mb vs the March WASDE), and compares to 1.369 bb in MY 2013/14, and 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9). The USDA and KSU projections of non-ethanol food, seed and industrial usage for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are 1.375 bb for all but the most extreme drought 2016 scenario (i.e., Scenario C above). 

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.250 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 is down 50 mb from March, and down from 5.324 bb for “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 5.040 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13, and 4.519 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9).  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) reported by the USDA over the same time period as illustrated in the following information.   The USDA projection of feed and residual use in “next crop” MY 2016/17 is 5.425 bb, up from the KSU projection of feed and residual usage for “next crop” MY 2016/17 of 5.325 bb for KSU Scenario A, i.e., the full production scenario above.   

In the USDA April 14th Feed Outlook Report (http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/2067090/fds-april-2016.pdf) indicates that over the MY 2013/14 through “current” MY 2015/16 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – is estimated to have been 134.8 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2013/14 (95.0% corn), and 143.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (94.0% corn), and is forecast to be 143.6 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16 (92.9% corn).  Over this same 3-year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) are estimated to have been 90.5 million in MY 2013/14, and 92.4 million in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and are forecast to be 93.6 million in “current” MY 2015/16.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit are estimated to have been 1.490 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2013/14, and 1.556 mt/au in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 1.534 mt/au in “current” MY 2015/16.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the successive record “large crop” years of MY 2013/14, “old crop” MY 2014/15, and “current” MY 2015/16 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has risen – contributing to downward pressure on the prices of U.S. corn and other feedgrains.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a near record 13.521 bb, down 24 mb from the March WASDE, and down from the previous record high of 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 13.545 bb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 9).   Total corn use in the U.S. has varied widely in recent marketing years – following from and being affected by changes in available U.S. corn supplies. 

Corn use in the U.S. has changed from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.008 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.041 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.033 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.482 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the one-time record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, the record high amount of 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now the 2nd highest projected amount on record of 13.521 bb in “current” MY 2015/16.  The USDA has preliminarily projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of U.S. corn to be a near record 13.725 bb.  The KSU projection of total usage for “next crop” MY 2016/17 in KSU Scenario A (i.e., large 2016 U.S. corn crop) is 13.640 bb – down 85 mb from the USDA’s “next crop” MY 2016/17 forecast of 13.725 bb. 

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

Ending Stocks: U.S. corn ending stocks for “current” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 1.862 bb – up 25 mb from the March WASDE projection (Table 1 & Figures 7 and 9).  United States’ corn ending stocks were 2.114 bb in MY 2004/05, followed by 1.967 bb in MY 2005/06, 1.304 bb in MY 2006/07, 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, 1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and 1.731 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now are forecast to be 1.862 bb in “current” MY 2015/16. 

The adjusted USDA preliminarily forecast U.S. corn ending stocks would be approximately 2.486 bb in “next crop” MY 2016/17.  The KSU projection of U.S. corn ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17 under KSU Scenario A (i.e., a large 2016 U.S. corn crop) is 2.087 bb – down 1.601 bb from the USDA’s KSU-adjusted MY 2016/17 forecast of 2.486 bb.  For “moderate drought” KSU-Scenario B, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.611 bb in “next crop” MY 2016/17.  For “extreme drought” KSU-Scenario C, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.137 bb in “next crop” MY 2016/17. 

Percent Ending Stocks-to-Use: Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 13.56% in “current” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from February-March, but up from 13.28% in January (Table 1 and Figures 10 and 11).  On a year-by-year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.75% in MY 2007/08 and 13.94% in MY 2008/09, to 13.10% in MY 2009/10, 8.65% in MY 2010/11, 7.92% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.41% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. Then U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use increased for the first time in six (6) years up to 9.16% in MY 2013/14, then again to 12.59% in “old crop” MY 2014/15 – with a projected increase to 13.56% in “current” MY 2015/16. 

The preliminary KSU-adjusted USDA projections are for U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use to be 18.11% in “next crop” MY 2016/17.  The KSU projection of U.S. corn percent ending stocks-to-use for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is 15.30% in “large crop” KSU-Scenario A – less than the KSU-adjusted USDA’s forecast of 18.11% for “next crop” MY 2016/17.  For “moderate drought” KSU-Scenario B, U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 11.87% in “next crop” MY 2016/17.  For “extreme drought” KSU-Scenario C, U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 8.50% in “next crop” MY 2016/17.

Figure 10. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 – “Next Crop” MY 2016/17, adjusted USDA “Next Crop” 2016/17 Outlook Forum Scenarios, & KSU “Next Crop” MY 2016/17 Scenarios

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through “Next Crop” MY 2016/17; as of the April 12th USDA WASDE Report, with February 26th USDA Ag Outlook Forum projections for MY 2016/17

Corn Prices: U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2015/16 are projected to be in the range of $3.40-$3.70 /bu (midpoint = $3.55), down from $3.40-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.60) in the March WASDE (Table 1 and Figures 10 and 11).  Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. 

However, if the USDA’s April 12th WASDE projection holds true, prices will now have declined each marketing year since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now to a projected range of $3.40-$3.70 (midpoint = $3.55) in “current crop” MY 2015/16.  The USDA’s preliminary projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is $3.45 /bu, while the KSU projection for the same period under “large crop” KSU-Scenario A is $3.20 per bushel.  For “moderate drought” KSU-Scenario B, U.S. corn prices are projected to average $3.70 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17.  For “extreme drought” KSU-Scenario C, U.S. corn prices are projected to average $4.75 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17. 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online – standing for “Production, Supply, and Distribution Online” as of April 15, 2016 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), and the April 12th USDA WASDE report, the USDA is forecasting that “current” 2015/16 marketing year World corn production will be smaller than “old crop” MY 2014/15 World corn production (Figure 12).  World corn total supplies of 1,179.7 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16 are projected to be down marginally (down 0.7%) from 1,187.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 5.0% from 1,123.9 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

Consequently, World corn total use is projected to be 970.8 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 1.0% from 980.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 2.3% from 948.85 mmt in MY 2013/14.   World corn ending stocks are forecast by the USDA to increase to 208.9 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, up 0.6% from 207.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 19.4% from 175.0 mmt in MY 2013/14.  

Figure 12. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2015/16 (April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE)

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 972.1 mmt for “current” MY 2015/16 would be the third highest on record, being down 4.0% from the record high of 1,012.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 1.9% from 990.5 mmt in MY 2013/14, but being up from 869.5 mmt in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, and from 889.6 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 2 & Figure 12).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 626.65 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 3.9% from 651.75 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 2.0% from 639.2 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “current” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 122.3 mmt, down 13.6% from 141.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 6.7% from 131.1 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3 and Figure 12).   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 80.4 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 14.7% from 94.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 2.3% from 82.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “current” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 130.0 mmt, up 5.3% from 123.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 4.8% from 123.95 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 128.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, up 4.9% from 122.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 4.6% from 123.0 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “current” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 598.4 mmt, up 2.5% from 583.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 4.8% from 571.1 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 465.0 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, up 3.7% from 448.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up 5.0% from 443.1 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “current” MY 2015/16 is projected to be 372.4 mmt, down 6.1% from 396.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 1.4% from 377.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 204.2 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 11.1% from 229.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and down 4.0% from 212.8 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 970.9 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16 is down 1.0% from 980.3 mmt for “old crop” MY 2014/15; up 2.3% from 948.85 mmt in MY 2013/14; and up from the range of 776.3-869.1 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2012/13 period (Table 7 and Figure 12).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 669.3 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 1.4% from 678.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 2.0% from 655.9 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 208.9 mmt for “current” MY 2015/16 represents an increase of 1.3 mmt (up 0.6%) from 207.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and an increase of 32.9 mmt (up 19.4%) from 175.0 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 8 and Figure 12).  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 127.8 mmt in MY 2007/08; 143.5 mmt in MY 2008/09; 140.9 mmt in MY 2009/10; 123.6 mmt in MY 2010/11; 128.3 mmt in MY 2011/12; 133.4 mmt in MY 2012/13, 175.0 mmt in MY 2013/14; 207.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15; and are now projected to be a record high 208.9 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16.  

Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 161.6 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, down 1.2% from 163.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up 12.4% from 143.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 21.5% in “current” MY 2015/16, up from 21.2% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 18.45% in MY 2013/14, 15.35% in MY 2012/13, 14.8% in MY 2011/12, and 14.5% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 16.5%-18.3% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.  

Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.0% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (14.5% S/U), MY 2011/12 (14.8% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.35% S/U).  Restated, recent World corn ending stocks-to-use of 14.5% in MY 2010/11 and 14.8% in MY 2011/12 are at the lowest levels recorded since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  

Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 21.6% in “current” MY 2015/16, up from 21.2% in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 19.5% in MY 2013/14. 

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 11), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has generally existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “outward jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 13). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices.  Conversely, smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 11 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 13 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 14.5% in MY 2010/11 and 14.8% in MY 2011/12.   The USDA’s most recent projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 21.5% in “current” MY 2015/16.

Figure 13. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2015/16)                   
(April 12, 2016 USDA WASDE Report)
 


Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "Current" MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: Current 2015/16     April 2016

Corn Production: March 2015 Current 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current 2015/16 Production:               April Less March 2015                    

Current 2015/16 Production:                Percent (%)         April of               March 2015

April Corn Production: Old crop 2014/15          

March Corn Production: Old crop 2014/15

April Less March Corn  Production             for Old crop 2014/15

Current 2015/16 Production             Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current 2015/16 Production of                         Old crop 2014/15

Corn Production: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current 2015/16 Production             Less 2013/14

% Current 2015/16 Production       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

972.13

969.64

2.49

100.3%

1,012.84

1,009.68

3.16

(40.71)

96.0%

990.47

(18.34)

98.1%

United States

345.49

345.49

0.00

100.0%

361.09

361.09

0.00

(15.60)

95.7%

351.27

(5.78)

98.4%

Total Foreign

626.65

624.15

2.50

100.4%

651.75

648.59

3.16

(25.10)

96.1%

639.20

(12.55)

98.0%

Major Exporters

118.50

117.50

1.00

100.9%

124.33

122.30

2.03

(5.83)

95.3%

120.93

(2.43)

98.0%

Argentina

28.00

27.00

1.00

103.7%

28.70

27.00

1.70

(0.70)

97.6%

26.00

2.00

107.7%

Brazil

84.00

84.00

0.00

100.0%

85.00

85.00

0.00

(1.00)

98.8%

80.00

4.00

105.0%

South Africa

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

10.63

10.80

(0.17)

(4.13)

61.1%

14.93

(8.43)

43.5%

Major Importers

115.28

115.09

0.19

100.2%

133.91

134.20

(0.29)

(18.63)

86.1%

120.24

(4.96)

95.9%

Egypt

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

5.96

5.96

0.00

0.04

100.7%

5.80

0.20

103.4%

European Union 

57.47

57.75

(0.28)

99.5%

75.50

75.79

(0.29)

(18.03)

76.1%

64.64

(7.17)

88.9%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

24.00

23.50

0.50

102.1%

26.81

25.48

1.33

(2.81)

89.5%

22.88

1.12

104.9%

Southeast Asia

27.64

27.66

(0.02)

99.9%

56.81

56.81

0.00

(29.17)

48.7%

26.78

0.86

103.2%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

13.60

13.60

0.00

100.0%

11.49

11.49

0.00

2.11

118.4%

14.19

(0.59)

95.8%

China

224.58

224.58

0.00

100.0%

215.65

215.65

0.00

8.93

104.1%

218.49

6.09

102.8%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

40.15

39.94

0.21

100.5%

43.80

43.75

0.05

(3.65)

91.7%

46.92

(6.77)

85.6%

Ukraine

23.33

23.30

0.03

100.1%

28.45

28.45

0.00

(5.12)

82.0%

30.90

(7.57)

75.5%

FSU-12 Less Ukraine

16.82

16.64

0.18

101.1%

15.35

15.30

0.05

1.47

109.6%

16.02

0.80

105.0%

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "Current" MY 2015/16, “Old Crop” MY 2014/15, and MY 2013/14

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: Current 2015/16     April 2016

Corn Exports: March 2015 Current 2015/16                   (1 month ago)

Current 2015/16 Exports:               April Less March 2015                    

Current 2015/16 Exports:                Percent (%)         April of March 2015

April Corn Exports: Old crop 2014/15          

March Corn Exports: Old crop 2014/15

April Less March Corn  Exports for Old crop 2014/15

Current 2015/16 Exports Less Old crop 2014/15

% Current 2015/16 Exports of Old crop 2014/15

Corn Exports: 2013/14                           (2 years ago)

Current 2015/16 Exports             Less 2013/14

% Current 2015/16 Exports       of 2013/14

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

122.34

119.73

2.61

102.2%

141.67

141.21

0.46

(19.33)

86.4%

131.10

(8.76)

93.3%

United States

41.91

41.91

0.00

100.0%

47.36

47.36

0.00

(5.45)

88.5%

48.78

(6.87)

85.9%

Total Foreign

80.43

77.82

2.61

103.4%

94.31

93.85

0.46

(13.88)

85.3%

82.32

(1.89)

97.7%

Major Exporters

47.70

45.80

1.90

104.1%

54.06

53.65

0.41

(6.36)

88.2%

40.03

7.67

119.2%

Argentina

19.00

17.00

2.00

111.8%

18.90

18.50

0.40

0.10

100.5%

17.10

1.90

111.1%

Brazil

28.00

28.00

0.00

100.0%

34.46

34.45

0.01

(6.46)

81.3%

20.97

7.03

133.5%

South Africa

0.70

0.80

(0.10)

87.5%

0.70

0.70

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.96

(1.26)

35.7%

Major Importers

3.23

2.97

0.26

108.8%

5.89

5.89

0.00

(2.66)

54.8%

4.44

(1.21)

72.7%

Egypt

1.40

0.01

1.39

14000.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

1.39

14000.0%

0.00

1.40

#DIV/0!

European Union  

1.10

1.10

0.00

100.0%

4.03

4.03

0.00

(2.93)

27.3%

2.41

(1.31)

45.6%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.78

0.78

0.00

0.22

128.2%

0.50

0.50

200.0%

Southeast Asia

0.82

0.86

(0.04)

95.3%

1.07

1.07

0.00

(0.25)

76.6%

1.53

(0.71)

53.6%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.42

0.42

0.00

0.58

238.1%

1.95

(0.95)

51.3%

China

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01