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Corn Market Outlook in September 2014

September 18, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on September 11th, DEC 2014 and MAY 2015 corn futures prices have moved sideways to higher, raising hopes of a possible end to the decline in corn prices that has occurred since mid-May 2014.  With the existing market consensus that a record large 14 billion bushel (bb) plus U.S. corn crop will occur in 2014, U.S. feedgrain prices have declined steadily as grain buyers have little incentive to aggressively buy corn, leading to weaker U.S. corn prices.  Several factors may work together to lower final 2014 U.S. corn production, such as a) accounting for 2014 corn prevented planting acreage in future Crop Production reports, b) the impact of less than ideal June-July growing weather in the U.S. corn belt, and c) the effect of cool-wet weather in the later stages of the growing season.  However, it is unlikely that the combined impact of these factors will cause a significant change in the “large crop-low price” scenario that is likely to occur.  Corn prices are likely to be weak through fall harvest until the beginning of the coming growing season in April-May 2015.   

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA forecast U.S. 2014 corn production to be a record 14.395 billion bushels (bb), based on projected of planted acreage of 91.641 million acres or ‘ma’, harvested acreage of 83.839 ma, and record 2014 U.S. corn yields of 171.7 bushels per acre.  Along with a record 2014 U.S. corn crop, the USDA also projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.607 bb.  Projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.605 bb is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.125 bb (unchanged from MY 2013/14), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.405 bb (up 30 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 175 mb from last year), and feed and residual use of 5.325 bb (up 250 mb).  “New crop” ending stocks were also raised to 2.002 bb (up 194 mb from last month and up 821 mb from last year) with ending stocks-to-use of 14.72% (up from 8.58% S/U a year ago).  The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices will be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bushel with a midpoint of $3.50 – down $0.40 /bu from August. 

KSU U.S. Corn Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are as follows:  a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 90.141 ma planted, 82.470 ma harvested, average yields of 170.5 bu/ac, 14.061 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 15.272 bb U.S. corn supplies, 13.449 bb total use, 1.823 bb ending stocks, 13.6% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn price;  b) “High Production” Scenario (equal to USDA September forecast): 25% prob. of 91.641 ma planted, 83.839 ma harvested, yields of 171.7 bu/ac, 14.395 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 15.607 bb U.S. corn supplies, 13.605 bb total use, 2.002 bb ending stocks, 14.7% S/U, & $3.50 /bu, and c) “Low Production” Scenario: 15% prob. of 88.641 ma planted, 81.098 ma harvested, lower yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 13.624 bb 2014 U.S. corn production, 14.845 bb U.S. corn supplies, 13.214 bb total use, 1.631 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. average corn price. 

World Corn Total Supplies of 1,161 mmt projected for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 1,125 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 1,003 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 190 mmt (19.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173 mmt (18.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for the U.S.’ major export competitors Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.3) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 2.0) is projected to be down 6.3 mmt.  Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 26.0 mmt is down 4.9 mmt. South American acreage decisions will be made for first planting of crops by Nov-Dec 2014, with subsequent plantings coming after the first of the year.  With closing NOV-2015 soybean futures of $9.99 and DEC-2015 corn futures of $3.87 on 9/17/2014, the ratio of 2.58 favors soybeans.  If South American farmers shift sizable acreage away from 2015 corn into 2015 soybeans, then by March-April 2015 World corn market price prospects for MY 2015/16 could be effected – impacting U.S. farmers’ 2015 planting choices in the spring.

I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. September 2014 USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On September 11, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its September  2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn production estimates for 2014.  The September Crop Production report was based on farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement information gathered during the August 25th through September 5th period.   Approximately 12,000 producers were interview during the survey period with inquiries made about probable corn yield.  The objective yield surveys were conducted in major producing states accounting for 75 percent of U.S. corn production in recent years.  The USDA reported corn plant populations and number of ears per acre in the report, and also measured pounds per ear in its effort to figure corn production at the state and national level.

On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY 2014/15. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  Information in the upcoming September 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.

I-B. Corn Futures Trends Since the September 11th USDA Reports

The “new crop” DECEMBER 2014 corn futures market contract responded in a moderately negative manner to the information in the September11th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Thursday, September 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) DEC 2014 corn futures prices opened at the high for the day at $3.45 ½ per bushel, and traded as low as $3.35 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.41 – down $0.04 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.  

 

Figure 1. DEC 2014 and MAY 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

Since then, DEC 2014 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.35 ¾ on September 15th to a high of $3.50 ½ on September 16th, before closing at $3.43 ¾ on that same day.   The low closing price of $3.38 ½ on September 12th was a record historic low for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract.

The “new crop” MAY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately negative manner to the information in the September11th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Thursday, September 11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2015 corn futures prices opened at the high for the day at $3.66 per bushel, and traded as low as $3.56 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.62 – also down $0.04 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).   Since then, MAY 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.56 ¼ on September 15th to a high of $3.70 on September 16th, before closing at $3.64 ¼ on that same day.  The low closing price of $3.59 ½ on September 12th was a record historic low for the MAY 2015 corn futures contract.

Question: Do these prices represent a fall harvest low?

It is possible that the sideways trend in DEC 2014 and MAY 2015 corn futures prices since the release of the September 11th USDA reports may signal that “the market is looking for a low” in corn futures prices for fall 2015. Of course the results of the October and November 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production and WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them and potentially other market factors will be key determinants as to whether these price levels represent the fall harvest “lows” this year.  However, given what the market now has in hand for information, that prices have not continued lower since the September 11th USDA reports is an important market signal that the lows in the market may be occurring at this time.   

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.641 million acres (ma) unchanged from July-August USDA projections, but down 50,000 acres from the March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report (Table 1 and Figure 2).  Planted acreage of 91.641 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011.   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.839 ma – unchanged from July-August but down from its June 11 WASDE report projection of 84.3 ma, and down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up from 81.446 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.49%, down from 91.9% in to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011. 

Prevented Planting Impacts?  It is possible that these figures for 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres could be adjusted low due to prevented planting that occurred this past spring.  Farm Service Agency (FSA) estimates released in August and September indicated as much as 2.5-3.3 million acres may have been designated as “prevented planted”.  However, there are questions about how these FSA prevented planting data are to be interpreted.  Regardless, it seems likely that at least a marginal decrease in USDA projections of 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage will occur in either the upcoming October, November or January 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production reports, which could lead to at least a marginal reduction in 2014 U.S. corn production estimates, and which would in turn lead to adjustments in “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S. corn supply-demand balances.    

The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, and is up from USDA projections of 167.4 bu/ac in August, and 165.3 in July.  This projection of 171.7 bu/ac in September is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3).   Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected  2014 U.S. corn production to be 14.395 billion bushels (bb) – which would be the highest amount on record, larger than the current record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.780 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Corn Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.607 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.181 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.395 bb, and projected imports of 30 million bushel (mb) (Table 1).  Total supplies of 15.607 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).  

Beginning stocks of 1.181 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from August, but down from a projection of 1.246 bb in the July WASDE report.  Projected beginning stocks of 1.181 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from both 821 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13.  This amount of beginning stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.   Imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are the third highest on record, and are projected to be down from 35 mb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought-stressed 2012/13 marketing year.  These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.125 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 50 mb from August and up 75 mb from July – following from expectations of low corn input prices and continued profitability on U.S. ethanol production.   This projection of 5.125 bb in “new crop” MY 2013/14 is unchanged from 5.125 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 5 mb), while being up from 4.641 bb (down 7 mb) in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figure 4).  Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “old crop” MY 2013/14 had ranged from 4.638-5.418 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 - the beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.  Only 1 week of ethanol production for “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been reported to date by the EIA (i.e., the week ending September 5th), with estimated corn use at a rate that would equal 5.168 bb for the marketing year. 

Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through August 29, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.073 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  This estimate of 5.073 bb is less than the USDA’s adjusted September 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.125 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which had been raised 5 mb in the August WASDE report).               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 6 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates since MY 2010/11, approximately 1.049-1.158 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.049 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.158 bb projected for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.158 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Over the same five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 306 mb, with approximately 306 bb of DDGS-corn equivalents projected for the “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.750 in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 25 mb from the August WASDE, but down from the estimate of 1.925 bb (up 25 mb) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but is up 140% sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year low since MY 1975/76 (Figure 4).  According the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data, as of September 4th, the first week of “new crop” MY 2014/15, 27.4 mb of U.S. corn had been shipped for export – equal to only 1.6% of the USDA’s updated projection for “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.750 bb.  An additional 459.9 mb of U.S. corn had been sold for future export sales in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of “new crop” MY 2014/15). 

Adding together 27.4 mb in past shipments plus 459.9 mb in forward sales amounts to 487.2 mb, or 27.8% of the USDA’s 1.750 bb U.S. corn export target for “new crop” MY 2014/15 in the September 11th USDA WASDE report with 1.9% (1/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn exports will need to average 33.8 mb per week for the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.750 bb projection.  This compares to 27.4 mb of export shipments for the week ending Sept. 4th.    

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.405 bb (up 30 mb from August) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.375 bb (down 10 mb) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.398 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figure 4).

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.325 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 75 mb from the August WASDE report, and up 125 mb from the July WASDE (Figure 4).  This projection of 5.325 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.175 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 4.339 bb in MY 2012/13.  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the same time period.

In the USDA September 15th Feed Outlook Report (http://www. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-09-15-2014.pdf)  the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “new crop” MY 2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – was estimated to be 125.9 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.5% corn), and 137.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (95.9% corn), and is projected to be 145.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (92.8% corn).   Over this same three year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units were estimated to be 91.8 million in MY 2012/13, and 89.3 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 89.9 million in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.372 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.535 mt/au in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.622 mt/au in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now into “new crop” MY 2014/15, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has and is projected to also increase.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 13.605 bb – up 170 mb from August and up 270 mb from July.  This amount of 13.605 bb in total use for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is marginally larger than the record high of 13.600 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up sharply from 11.108 bb (down 3 mb) in drought affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 6).  United States’ total corn use has varied based on available U.S. corn supplies in recent years, trending from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.108 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 13.600 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, and the projected new record high amount of 13.605 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 2.002 bb – up 194 mb from the August WASDE report.  This forecast amount of U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.002 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 up from 1.181 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 – which was unchanged from August WASDE, but lowered 65 mb from 1.246 bb in the July WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 4).  Projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.002 bb would be greater than 1.673 bb of U.S. corn ending stocks for MY 2008/09, and 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10 – and markedly larger than the recent relatively low ending stocks figures of 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, and 1.181 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 14.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 13.5% in both the August and July WASDE reports (Table 1 & Figures 7-8).  United States’ corn % ending stocks-to-use declined from 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 8.7% in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (down from 9.2% in the July WASDE report), and now to a projected level of 14.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.50) (Table 1 & Figures 7-8) – down from $3.55-$4.25 (midpoint = $3.90) in the August WASDE report, and down from $3.65-$4.35 (midpoint = $4.00) in the July WASDE report

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower, and higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  However, if the September 11th WASDE report projection holds true, prices will now have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.45 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50) in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  

I-D. KSU U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

Kansas State University forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances for “new crop” in the 2014/15 marketing year are provided below.   Given the market information available in September 2014, the conservative price projections that follow seem reasonable.  However, some 2014 production uncertainty still remains, and there is the possibility of overly pessimistic projections of U.S. corn usage in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year may still very well lead to higher prices than these projections – even though the current prevailing market sentiment is for extremely low U.S. corn prices at harvest this fall.  

These KSU projections are an effort to reflect the uncertainty that exists in regards to the final amount of 2014 U.S. corn production.  The size of the 2014 U.S. corn crop will be determined by 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres on the one hand, and on 2014 U.S. corn yields on the other.  These KSU 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage projections follow from the September 11th USDA NASS Crop Production and the USDA WAOB WASDE reports

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2014 probability-weighted U.S. corn yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figure 7.  Three probability-weighted KSU supply-demand and price scenarios for “new year’s” U.S. corn crop” MY 2014/15 are presented below.  

It should be noted that the key market determining factor to focus on in regards to production – supply prospects is the projected size of the 2014 U.S. corn crop and the projected probability attached to it.   In these projections the lower acreage and lower yield scenarios were deliberately placed together in scenario #3 to represent the “low 2014 U.S. corn production” scenario.  Similarly, the high planted acreage and high yield scenarios are deliberately placed together to represent the “high 2014 production” outcome in scenario #2.  It is possible – and indeed likely – that if at the end of the 2014 U.S. corn growing season the size of the U.S. corn crop could be nearly equal to either the high production or low production outcomes of scenarios #2 or #3, but for different specific acreage and/or yield outcomes than either of these scenarios are constructed on.

#1: “Likely Production” Scenario: Production = 14.061 bb, 13.55% S/U, $3.70/bu – 60% Probability

It is estimated here that there is a “6 out of 10” or 60% chance of final 2014 final U.S. corn production being approximately 14.061 billion bushels (bb).   In this KSU forecast, the following assumptions are used to derive that projection.   First, it is assumed that final 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage is 1.5 million acres (ma) less than the USDA’s September projection due to prevented plantings this spring, down to 90.141 million acres (ma). 

With U.S. corn % harvested-to-planted acreage assumed to be 91.49% (equal to the USDA’s September estimate), U.S. corn harvested acreage would equal 82.470 ma (Table 1).   An average 2014 U.S. corn yield of 170.5 bu/ac is projected, anticipating that final yields will be marginally lower than the September USDA projection.   Taken together, these projections lead to a forecast of 2014 U.S. corn production of 14.061 bb. 

Total U.S. corn supplies are projected to be 15.272 bb, with U.S. total corn usage at 13.449 bb, ending stocks of 1.823 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 13.55% for “new crop” MY 2014/15.   U.S. corn average prices would be projected in the range of $3.20-$4.20 per bushel (midpoint = $3.70) for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

#2: “Higher Production” Scenario: Production = 14.395 bb, 14.72% S/U, $3.50/bu – 25% Probability

It is estimated here that there is a “2.5 out of 10” or 25% chance that the USDA September WASDE report projection of U.S. corn supply demand is essentially correct, with final 2014 final U.S. corn production being approximately 14.395 bb.  As in the USDA projection, in this KSU forecast, the following assumptions are used to derive that projection.   First, it is assumed that 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage is 91.641 ma, and that U.S. corn harvested acreage in 2014 is 83.839 ma, assuming U.S. corn % harvested-to-planted acreage of 91.49% (Table 1).  Projected 2014 U.S. corn yield in this scenario is 171.7 bu/ac, which is 12.3 bu/ac (+7.7%) more than the a simple 1973-2013 trend line yield forecast of 159.4 bu/ac, and markedly above the USDA’s initial 2014 yield projection of 165.3 bu/ac in the 2014 May WASDE report.  Given these “large crop” assumptions, 2014 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.395 bb – equal to the USDA September projection. 

Just as for the USDA, total U.S. corn supplies are projected to be 15.607 bb, U.S. total corn usage at 13.6085 bb, ending stocks of 2.002 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 14.72% for “new crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. corn average prices would be in the range of $3.60-$4.60 per bushel (midpoint = $4.10) for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

#3: “Lower Production” Scenario: Production = 13.624 bb, 12.34% S/U, $4.00/bu – 15% Probability

It is estimated here that there is a “1.5 out of 10” or 15% chance of final 2014 final U.S. corn production being approximately 13.624 bb.  The following assumptions are used to derive that projection.   First, it is assumed that 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage is 88.641 ma, which is 3.0 ma less than the USDA projection of 91.641 ma – due to more prevented plantings of U.S. corn than is assumed in the “Likely Production” Scenario, i.e., Scenario #1 presented above (Table 1).  Projected 2014 U.S. corn yield in this scenario is 168.0 bu/ac, down from the USDA projection of 171.7 bu/ac. – accounting for possible late season crop maturity problems and quality damage, and other potentiall yield reducing factors that may not be being accounted for at this time.  Harvested acreage is estimated to be 81.098 ma, calculated by multiplying planted acres of 88.641 ma times the assumed % harvested-to-planted acres of 91.49%.  Given these relative “small crop” scenario assumptions, 2014 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 13.624 bb. 

Under this “lower production” scenario, total U.S. corn supplies are projected to be 14.845 bb, U.S. total corn usage at 13.214 bb, ending stocks of 1,631 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 12.34% for “new crop” MY 2014/15.   U.S. corn average prices would be in the range of $3.50-$4.50 per bushel (midpoint = $4.00) for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year World corn production will be marginally larger than “old crop” MY 2013/14 production.   World corn total supplies of 1,160.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 3.2% over 1,124.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 15.7% over 1,003.4 mmt in MY 2012/13.   Consequently, World corn total use is also projected to be 970.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.0% over 951.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 12.2% over 865.2 mmt MY 2012/13.   World corn ending stocks are also projected to continue to increase, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 189.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 9.7% from 173.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 37.5% from 138.2 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

This situation is a result of a number of factors working together over the 2013-2014 period.  First, a historically large 2013 South American feedgrain crop that was harvested in the first half of last year –that was then followed by a record large 2013 U.S. corn crop harvested in that fall.  These developments in 2013 led to growth in U.S. and World corn supplies, ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use in what is now “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Then a second consecutive large South American corn crop (though less than in 2013) that was harvested in early 2014 was followed by what is now projected to be a record large 2014 U.S. corn crop.  This growth in available World corn supplies has been driven mainly be increased U.S. production in 2014 as foreign supplies have actually declined from “old crop” MY 2013/14 to “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

These factors combined with “level” rather than “continued growth” in U.S. use of corn for ethanol production in 2014 have been the major drivers contributing to projections of larger World corn supply-demand balances in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Going forward, the general market consensus is that the larger 2014 World corn supply-demand balances are expected, leading to markedly lower corn prices in late 2014 and on into 2015.  That said, lower prices in fall 2014 and reduced profitability prospects for corn in “new crop” 2014/15 may impact both South American corn plantings through December-February, and U.S. corn plantings in April-May, and may eventually lead to a reduced World corn supplies, lower ending stocks, and higher corn prices in MY 2015/16.   

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 987.5 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 986.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14; 868.8 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 796-889 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 & Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 621.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.8% from 633.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 4.5% from 594.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for “old crop” MY 2013/14 and in MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in the United States (up 11.9 to 365.7 mmt), the European Union (up 4.2 to 68.4 mmt), and Southeast Asia (up 0.66 to 27.5 mmt), as well as Mexico (up 0.1to 22.5 mmt).  Year-over-year decreases are projected in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in China (down 1.5 to 217.0 mmt), Brazil (down 4.3 to 75.0 mmt), Ukraine (down 4.9 to 26.0 mmt), Argentina (down 2.0 to 23.0 mmt), South Africa (down 1.25 to 13.5 mmt), Canada (down 2.6 to 11.6 mmt), and Egypt (down 0.05 to 5.75 mmt),

The United States (366 mmt) is projected to be the largest producer of corn in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (217 mmt), Brazil (75 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.5 mmt), Ukraine (26.0 mmt), Argentina (23.0 mmt), Mexico (22.5 mmt), South Africa (13.5 mmt), Canada (11.6 mmt), and Egypt (5.75 mmt). 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 115.2 mmt, down 10.5% from 128.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, while being up 21.0% from 95.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 70.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 79.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 76.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union-28 countries (up 0.3 mt) and Mexico (up 0.1 mmt), with decreases forecast for the United States (down 4.45 mmt), Argentina (down 1.0 mmt), Brazil (down 1.5 mmt), South Africa (down 0.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.9 mmt), Canada (down 0.8 mmt), and the Ukraine (down 4.0 mmt).     

The United States (44.5 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (20.0 mmt), Ukraine (16.0 mmt), Argentina (14.0 mmt), the European Union (2.5 mmt), South Africa (2.2 mmt), and Canada (1.0 mmt).  

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 112.9 mmt, down 6.9% from 121.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 13.5% from 99.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 112.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 120.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 95.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Japan (up 0.2 mmt), Mexico (up 0.2 mmt), Canada (up 0.1 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union Region-12 countries (up 0.03 mmt).  However, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.13 mmt), Egypt (down 1.5 mmt), the European Union (down 6.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.8 mmt), and China (down 0.5 mmt).

Japan (15.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the European Union (10.0 mmt), Mexico (10.9 mmt), South Korea (9.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (9.2 mmt), Egypt (6.5 mmt), China (3.0 mmt), Brazil (0.8 mmt), and Canada (0.5 mmt). 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 594.0 mmt, up 3.3% from 575.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 14.4% from 519.1 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 458.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.4% from 443.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 12.2% from 408.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn domestic feed use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 3.8 mmt), Argentina (up 0.6 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up from 0.2 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), Japan (up 0.2 mmt), Mexico (up 1.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), China (up 6.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union-12 countries (up 1.42 mmt).  Decreased feed use is projected for Canada (down 0.2 mmt), and the European Union (down 1.0 mmt).

China (160.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (135.3 mmt), the European Union (56.5 mmt), Brazil (47.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.9 mmt), Mexico (16.0 mmt), Japan (11.2 mmt), Egypt (10.6 mmt), Ukraine (8.5 mmt), South Korea (7.8 mmt), Canada (6.6 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), and South Africa (5.6 mmt). 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 376.7 mmt, up slightly from 376.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 8.8% from 346.1 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 210.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 0.3% from 211.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up 9.4% from 192.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 0.76 mmt) Argentina (up 0.1 mmt), South Africa (up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (up 0.50 mmt), Mexico (up 0.25 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.30 mmt), Canada (up 0.2 mmt), and China (up 2.0 mmt).  “No change” is forecast for Brazil, Egypt, Japan, South Korea, and Ukraine.

The United States (165.9 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (60.0 mmt), the European Union (19.0 mmt), Mexico (16.8 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.2 mmt), South Africa (6.2 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.1 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), Egypt (2.2 mmt), and Ukraine (1.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 970.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 2.0% from 951.8 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14; 865.2 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 774-868 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 669.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.2% from 655.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 11.3% from 601.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 4.6 mmt), Argentina (up 0.7 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.3 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), Japan (up 0.20 mmt), Mexico (up 1.25 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.4 mmt), Canada (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 8.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union (up 1.42 mmt), with a decrease projected for the European Union (down 0.5 mmt).  No change is expected for South Korea.

The United States (301.1 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the China (220.0 mmt), the European Union (75.5 mmt), Brazil (56.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (36.1 mmt), Mexico (32.8 mmt), Japan (15.7 mmt), Canada (12.0 mmt) and Egypt (12.8 mmt), South Africa (11.8 mmt), Ukraine (9.9 mmt), South Korea (9.9 mmt), and Argentina (9.2 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 189.9 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is an increase of 16.8 mmt (up 9.7%) from 173.42 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 132 mmt in MY 2007/08; 147 mmt in MY 2008/09; 147 mmt in MY 2009/10; 130 mmt in MY 2010/11; 135 mmt in MY 2011/12; 138 mmt in MY 2012/13; 173 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14; and are projected to be 190 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15.   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 139.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.8% from 143.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 18.6% from 117.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of corn ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 20.8 mmt), the European Union (up 0.35 mmt), Japan (a small increase), Mexico (up 0.15 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.12 mmt), the Former Soviet Union (up 0.18 mmt) which includes Ukraine (up 0.15 mmt).   Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 0.19 mmt), Brazil (down 0.7 mmt), South Africa (down 0.48 mmt), Egypt (down 0.56 mmt), South Korea (down 0.32 mmt), Canada (down 0.9 mmt), and China (down 0.1 mmt).

China (77.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (50.8 mmt), Brazil (17.1 mmt), the European Union (7.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.7 mmt), Argentina (2.6 mmt), South Africa (2.9 mmt), Mexico (2.4 mmt), Ukraine (2.4 mmt), Egypt (1.9 mmt), Canada (1.7 mmt), South Korea (1.4 mmt), and Japan (0.5 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.6% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 18.2% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, 16.0% in MY 2012/13, 15.5% in MY 2011/12, and 15.2% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 17.0%-18.8% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.2% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.9% S/U). 

Restated, World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.2% in MY 2010/11 are at the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 18.8% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 19.5% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 17.3% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn % ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Former Soviet Union including Ukraine.   Decreased ending stocks-to-use are projected for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, Canada, and China.

China (35.1%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn in terms of relative usage (i.e., percent ending stocks-to-use) in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (22.3%), South Africa (20.4%), Egypt (14.8%), the United States (14.7%), South Korea (14.3%), Canada (12.7%), Argentina (11.4%), Southeast Asia (10.2%), the European Union (9.5%), Ukraine (9.2%), Mexico (7.2%) and Japan (3.4%). 

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 8), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 10). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 8 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 10 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 15.2% in MY 2010/11 and 15.5% in MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U).   “New crop” projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 19.6% in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15 (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE & KSU Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Prevented Planting = 3.3 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

Prevented Planting = 1.5 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

Prevented Planting = 0.0 mln ac.

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15%

60%

25%

Planted Area (million acres)

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.2

95.4

91.641

88.641

90.141

91.641

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.6

79.5

81.4

84.0

87.4

87.668

83.839

81.098

82.470

83.839

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

91.49%

91.49%

91.49%

91.49%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.4

158.8

171.7

168.0

170.5

171.7

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,181

1,181

1,181

1,181

Production

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,780

13,925

14,395

13,624

14,061

14,395

Imports

14

8

28

29

160

35

30

40

30

30

Total Supply

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,929

14,781

15,607

14,845        

15,272

15,607

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,661

5,125

5,125

4,977

5,066

5,125

Non-ethanol Food, Seed & Industrial Use

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,398

1,375

1,405

1,365

1,389

1,405

Exports

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

730

1,925

1,750

1,700

1,730

1,750

Feed & Residual Use

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,339

5,175

5,325

5,172

5,264

5,325

Total Use

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,108

13,600

13,605

13,214

13,449

13,605

 

 

Ending Stocks

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,181

2,002

1,631

1,823

2,002

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.39%

8.68%

14.72%

12.34%

13.55%

14.72%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.45

$3.20-$3.80

($3.50)

$3.50-$4.50

($4.00)

$3.20-$4.20

($3.70)

$3.00-$4.00

($3.50)


 

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2013 Plus 2014 USDA & KSU Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2013 Plus 2014 Projections

Text Box: 1973-2013 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.81 bu + 1.80 bu/year
 
Trend Yield for 2014 = 159.4 bu/acre

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 6/4/2010 to 
 9/5/2014
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2009/10
Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 6. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through “New Crop” 2014/15                                

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “New Crop” MY 2014/15)    
(September 11th USDA WASDE Report & KSU Forecast)

Text Box: KSU: “New Crop” 2014/15
13.6% S/U, $3.70 /bu
Text Box: USDA: “New Crop” 2014/15
14.7% S/U, $3.50 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 9. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2014/15 (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: Lower World Corn Exports in “current” 2014/15 to 115.2 mmt 
 
Down 10.4% in 
“new crop” 2014/15 
from 125.6 mmt
from MY 2013/14 
Text Box: Usage ñ3.6%/yr since 2007/08 
Text Box: Production
ñ3.4%/yr since 2007/08
Text Box: 15 year high in end stocks projected for 
“new crop” 2014/15 
@ 189.9 mmt
 
12 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2014/15 
 @ 19.6% StxUse

Figure 10. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through MY 2014/15)                    
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Corn Production: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         September of               August 2014

September Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14          

May Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14

September Less August Corn  Production             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

987.52

985.39

2.13

100.2%

986.68

984.37

2.31

0.84

100.1%

868.76

118.76

113.7%

United States

365.66

356.43

9.23

102.6%

353.72

353.72

0.00

11.94

103.4%

273.83

91.83

133.5%

Total Foreign

621.86

628.97

(7.11)

98.9%

632.96

630.66

2.30

(11.10)

98.2%

594.93

26.93

104.5%

Major Exporters

111.50

113.50

(2.00)

98.2%

119.05

116.75

2.30

(7.55)

93.7%

120.87

(9.37)

92.2%

Argentina

23.00

26.00

(3.00)

88.5%

25.00

24.00

1.00

(2.00)

92.0%

27.00

(4.00)

85.2%

Brazil

75.00

74.00

1.00

101.4%

79.30

78.00

1.30

(4.30)

94.6%

81.50

(6.50)

92.0%

South Africa

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

(1.25)

91.5%

12.37

1.13

109.1%

Major Importers

124.27

122.97

1.30

101.1%

119.37

119.17

0.20

4.90

104.1%

111.62

12.65

111.3%

Egypt

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

European Union          - 28 Countries

68.35

67.05

1.30

101.9%

64.19

63.99

0.20

4.16

106.5%

58.87

9.48

116.1%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

22.50

22.50

0.00

100.0%

22.40

22.40

0.00

0.10

100.4%

21.59

0.91

104.2%

Southeast Asia

27.46

27.46

0.00

100.0%

26.80

26.80

0.00

0.66

102.5%

25.22

2.24

108.9%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

11.60

11.60

0.00

100.0%

14.20

14.20

0.00

(2.60)

81.7%

13.06

(1.46)

88.8%

China

217.00

222.00

(5.00)

97.7%

218.49

218.49

0.00

(1.49)

99.3%

205.61

11.39

105.5%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

42.66

44.16

(1.50)

96.6%

46.90

46.90

0.00

(4.24)

91.0%

32.31

10.35

132.0%

Ukraine

26.00

27.00

(1.00)

96.3%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(4.90)

84.1%

20.92

5.08

124.3%


Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Corn Exports: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14          

August Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14

September Less August Corn  Exports for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

115.19

115.86

(0.67)

99.4%

128.65

125.47

3.18

(13.46)

89.5%

95.16

20.03

121.0%

United States

44.45

43.82

0.63

101.4%

48.90

48.77

0.13

(4.45)

90.9%

18.55

25.90

239.6%

Total Foreign

70.74

72.04

(1.30)

98.2%

79.75

76.70

3.05

(9.01)

88.7%

76.61

(5.87)

92.3%

Major Exporters

36.20

38.20

(2.00)

94.8%

39.50

37.00

2.50

(3.30)

91.6%

45.69

(9.49)

79.2%

Argentina

14.00

16.00

(2.00)

87.5%

15.00

13.50

1.50

(1.00)

93.3%

18.69

(4.69)

74.9%

Brazil

20.00

20.00

0.00

100.0%

21.50

20.50

1.00

(1.50)

93.0%

24.95

(4.95)

80.2%

South Africa

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

3.00

3.00

0.00

(0.80)

73.3%

2.06

0.14

106.8%

Major Importers

3.45

2.95

0.50

116.9%

3.94

3.94

0.00

(0.49)

87.6%

2.82

0.63

122.3%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union          - 28 Countries

2.50

2.00

0.50

125.0%

2.20

2.20

0.00

0.30

113.6%

2.19

0.31

114.2%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.40

0.40

0.00

0.10

125.0%

0.52

(0.02)

96.2%

Southeast Asia

0.44

0.44

0.00

100.0%

1.33

1.33

0.00

(0.89)

33.1%

0.09

0.35

488.9%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

1.80

1.55

0.25

(0.80)

55.6%

1.75

(0.75)

57.1%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.10

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

19.94

19.94

0.00

100.0%

24.55

24.45

0.10

(4.61)

81.2%

15.00

4.94

132.9%

Ukraine

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(4.00)

80.0%

12.73

3.27

125.7%

 

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Corn Imports: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports: September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14          

August Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14

September Less August Corn  Imports             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.87

114.22

(1.35)

98.8%

121.22

119.64

1.58

(8.35)

93.1%

99.42

13.45

113.5%

United States

0.76

0.76

0.00

100.0%

0.89

0.89

0.00

(0.13)

85.4%

4.06

(3.30)

18.7%

Total Foreign

112.11

113.46

(1.35)

98.8%

120.33

118.76

1.57

(8.22)

93.2%

95.35

16.76

117.6%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.84

0.84

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.97

(0.13)

86.6%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

(0.05)

37.5%

Major Importers

66.00

67.50

(1.50)

97.8%

75.10

73.90

1.20

(9.10)

87.9%

56.86

9.14

116.1%

Egypt

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

8.00

8.00

0.00

(1.50)

81.3%

5.06

1.44

128.5%

European Union          - 28 Countries

10.00

11.00

(1.00)

90.9%

16.00

15.50

0.50

(6.00)

62.5%

11.35

(1.35)

88.1%

Japan

15.70

16.00

(0.30)

98.1%

15.50

15.50

0.00

0.20

101.3%

14.41

1.29

109.0%

Mexico

10.90

10.90

0.00

100.0%

10.70

10.70

0.00

0.20

101.9%

5.68

5.22

191.9%

Southeast Asia

9.20

9.20

0.00

100.0%

10.20

9.80

0.40

(1.00)

90.2%

7.96

1.24

115.6%

South Korea

9.50

9.50

0.00

100.0%

10.30

10.00

0.30

(0.80)

92.2%

8.17

1.33

116.3%

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.40

0.40

0.00

0.10

125.0%

0.48

0.02

104.2%

China

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

3.50

3.50

0.00

(0.50)

85.7%

2.70

0.30

111.1%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

0.42

0.42

0.00

100.0%

0.39

0.39

0.00

0.03

107.7%

0.34

0.08

123.5%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.01

125.0%

 

Table 5. World Corn Domestic Feed Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Feed Use: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Corn Feed Use: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use: September Less August 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use: Percent (%)         September of August 2014

September Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14          

August Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14

September Less August Corn  Feed Use             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Feed Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

594.02

594.42

(0.40)

99.9%

575.26

576.29

(1.03)

18.76

103.3%

519.09

74.93

114.4%

United States

135.26

133.36

1.90

101.4%

131.45

131.45

0.00

3.81

102.9%

110.22

25.04

122.7%

Total Foreign

458.76

461.06

(2.30)

99.5%

443.81

444.84

(1.03)

14.95

103.4%

408.87

49.89

112.2%

Major Exporters

59.20

59.10

0.10

100.2%

57.00

56.90

0.10

2.20

103.9%

54.90

4.30

107.8%

Argentina

6.10

6.00

0.10

101.7%

5.50

5.50

0.00

0.60

110.9%

5.30

0.80

115.1%

Brazil

47.50

47.50

0.00

100.0%

46.00

46.00

0.00

1.50

103.3%

44.50

3.00

106.7%

South Africa

5.60

5.60

0.00

100.0%

5.40

5.40

0.00

0.20

103.7%

5.10

0.50

109.8%

Major Importers

134.20