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Corn Market Outlook in November 2014

November 18, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on November 10th, DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices have moved sideways to higher, raising hopes of an eventual return to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash prices.  With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, “new crop” corn price prospects will be limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World.  Absent a shortfall in World feedgrain market supply-demand balances, price prospects are likely to be limited until April-May 2015 - the beginning of the U.S. corn planting and growing season.   

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA forecast 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record 14.407 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of 91.885 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.097 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre.  The USDA also projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb, up 6.0% from 14.782 bb a year earlier.  Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.660 bb is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.150 bb (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.385 bb (up 22 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb), and feed and residual use of 5.375 bb (up 243 mb).  “New crop” ending stocks are forecast at 2.008 bb – up from 1.236 bb (9.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 821 million bushels or ‘mb’ (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices will be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bushel with a midpoint of $3.50 – down from $4.46 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13. 

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative projection by KSU to the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn supply-demand and prices is as follows:  “Increased Usage” Scenario: 40% prob. of 15.668 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.955 bb total use (up 2.2% from USDA), 1.713 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price.    

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: A KSU projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16 for U.S. corn is as follows:  “2015 Less 3 Million Acre” Scenario: 88.885 ma planted in 2015, 80.885 ma harvested, trend yields of 162.7 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.073 bb, U.S. corn supplies of 15.106 bb, total use of 13.650 bb, ending stocks of 1.456 bb, 10.7% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S. corn season average prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 1,163 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,127 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 1,002 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 191.5 mmt (19.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173 mmt (18.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Combined “new crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for the U.S.’ major export competitors Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.3) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 2.0) is projected to be down 6.3 mmt from “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 27.0 mmt is down 3.9 mmt from a year ago.  South American acreage decisions either have been or are being made now for first planting of 2015 crops in the Nov-Dec 2014 period, with subsequent additional plantings coming after the first of the year.  With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $10.25 and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.21 ½ on 11/17/2014, the ratio of 2.43 may slightly favor soybeans (i.e., being greater than the customary 2.3 breakeven level).  If South American farmers shift sizable acreage away from corn into 2015 soybeans – markedly diminishing 2015 production prospects, and/or have weather-induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March-April 2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively affected – which could impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices.

I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. November 2014 USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On November 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its November  2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn production estimates for 2014.  The November Crop Production report was based on farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement information gathered during the October 25th through November 5th period.   Approximately 10,300 producers were interview during the survey period with inquiries made about their probable 2014 corn yields.  The objective yield surveys were conducted in major producing states usually accounting for about 80 percent of U.S. corn production in recent years.  The USDA reported corn plant populations, number of ears per acre, and row widths, in the Crop Production report, and also measured ears per acre versus implied ear weight in its effort to accurately project U.S. corn production at the state and national levels.

On the same day the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for both the “old crop” 2013/14 as well as for “new crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  

I-B. Corn Futures Trends Since the November 11th USDA Reports

The “new crop” DECEMBER 2014 corn futures market contract responded in a moderately positive manner to the information in the November 10th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Monday, November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DEC 2014 corn futures prices opened at $3.66 per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.64 ¾ - $3.78 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.69 ¼ – up $0.01 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then, DEC 2014 has traded from a low of $3.65 ½ on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of $3.89 on Thursday, November 13th before closing at $3.77 ½ on Monday, November 17th.

 

Figure 1. DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

The “new crop” JULY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately positive manner to the information in the November 10th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Monday, November 10th – CME JULY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.94 per bushel, trading within the range of $3.93 ¾ - $4.07 during the session, before settling at $3.98 ½ – up $0.02 per bushel for the day (Figure 1).   Since then, JULY 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.94 ½ on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of $4.17 on Thursday, November 13th, before closing at $4.06 ½ on Monday, November 17th.

Question: Do the prices in early October represent a fall harvest low?

In hindsight now it seems that the upward trend in DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices since the $3.46 ¾ low trading price on October 1, 2014 may signal that the fall harvest market low in corn futures prices has occurred.  Of course the results of the December 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production and WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them as well as other possible market influencing factors will be key determinants as to whether these price levels ultimately represent the fall harvest “lows” for this grain marketing year. 

A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January-February in large crop – low price years.  Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring, 2015.  However, the $3.46 ¾ low on October 1st will be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 or CME MAY 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in coming months.     

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – USDA Projections for “New Crop” 2014/15

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 90.885 million acres (ma) – unchanged from October (Table 1 and Figure 2).  Planted acreage of 90.885 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012 (adjusted 116,000 acres higher by the USDA), and 91.936 ma in 2011.   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.097 ma – unchanged from October but down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, while still being up from 81.446 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.4%, down from 91.9% in to 2013, but up from 89.8% in 2012, and equal to 91.4% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, but is down from the earlier USDA projection of 174.2 bu/ac in October (Table 1 and Figure 3).  This projection of 173.4 bu/ac in November is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.   Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be 14.407 billion bushels (bb) – which would be the highest amount on record, larger than the current record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012 (adjusted lower by 25 million bushels or “mb”), 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Corn Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.668 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.236 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.407 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Total supplies of 15.668 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.782 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).  

Beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from October, but down from an early season projection of 1.246 bb by the USDA in the July 2014 WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Projected beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13.  This amount of beginning stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.   Imports of 25 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought-stressed 2012/13 marketing year.  These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.150 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 25 mb from September-October – following from expectations of low corn input prices and a continuation of at least marginal profitability for U.S. ethanol production (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).   This projection of 5.150 bb in “new crop” MY 2013/14 is up from 5.134 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 4 mb), while being up from 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. 

Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “new crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.911-5.278 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 - the beginning of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through November 7, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.085 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  This estimate of 5.085 bb is less than the USDA’s adjusted November 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.150 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “new crop” MY 2014/15, with 10 of 52 weeks for the marketing year completed.               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 7 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates, since MY 2010/11 approximately 1.049-1.164 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.049 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.160 bb projected for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.164 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Over the same five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 307 mb, with approximately 307 bb of DDGS-corn equivalents projected for the “new crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.750 in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down from the estimate of 1.917 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but are up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year low since MY 1975/76 (Figures 5 and 7).  According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of November 11th, through the tenth week of “new crop” MY 2014/15 (10 of 52 weeks), 295.6 mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 16.9% of the USDA’s updated projection for “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.750 bb.  An additional 481.0 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of “new crop” MY 2014/15). 

Adding together 295.6 mb in past shipments plus 481.0 mb in forward sales amounts to 776.6 mb, or 44.4% of the USDA’s 1.750 bb U.S. corn export target for “new crop” MY 2014/15 in the November 10th USDA WASDE report with 19.2% (10/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn exports will need to average 34.6 mb per week for the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.750 bb projection.  This compares to 17.5 mb and 23.7 mb of export shipments for the weeks ending October 30th and November 6th, respectively – behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection.    

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.385 bb (down 30 mb from October) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.363 bb (down 11 mb) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figures 5 and 7).

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.375 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from October but up 25 mb from the September WASDE report (Figures 5 and 7).  This projection of 5.375 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.132 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 8 mb), and up from 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13 (down 25 mb).  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the same time period as shown in what follows.

In the USDA November 13th Feed Outlook Report (http://www.http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-11-13-2014.pdf)  the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “new crop” MY 2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – was estimated to be 125.8 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.1% corn), and 137.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (95.2% corn), and is projected to be 146.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (93.3% corn).   Over this same three year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units were estimated to be 92.3 million in MY 2012/13, and 90.3 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 91.5 million in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.363 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.517 mt/au in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.599 mt/au in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now into “new crop” MY 2014/15, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has and is projected to also increase.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 13.660 bb – up 5 mb from October.  This amount is up from 13.546 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up sharply from 11.083 bb (down 25 mb) in drought-affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 5 & 7).  United States’ total corn use has varied based largely on available U.S. corn supplies in recent years, trending from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 13.546 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and the projected new record high amount of 13.660 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 2.008 bb – down 73 mb from the October WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 4).  This forecast amount of U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.008 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 up from 1.236 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 821 mb in MY 2012/13.  Since MY 2006/07 (1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, and 1.236 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 2.008 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 14.8% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 15.3% in the October WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 8-9).  United States’ corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.8% in MY 2007/08 and 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 9.1% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now to a projected level of 14.8% in “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.50) (Table 1 & Figures 8-9) – up from $3.10-$3.70 (midpoint = $3.40) in the October WASDE report, and equal to the forecast price range in the September WASDE report

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower, and higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  However, if the November 10th WASDE report projection holds true, prices will now have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50) in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  

I-D. KSU U.S. Corn Market Scenarios: “New Crop” MY 2014/15 & “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

Kansas State University forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances for “new crop” in the 2014/15 and “next crop” 2015/16 marketing years are provided below.   Given the market information available in mid-November 2014, these conservative price projections that follow seem reasonable – especially for the current marketing year, i.e., “new crop” MY 2014/15.  However, some marginal amount of 2014 U.S. corn production uncertainty still remains that may be resolved in the January 12, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production Annual Summary report.  Also, there is the possibility that the USDA is overly pessimistic in its projections of U.S. corn usage in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year – which would ultimately lead to lower U.S. corn supply-demand balances, and at least marginally higher prices than are currently being projected for the current marketing year.

These Kansas State University supply-demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15 reflect the possibility of U.S. corn usage being underestimated by the USDA in the current marketing year.  However, for “next crop” MY 2015/16, these KSU projections reflect the likelihood of a reduction in U.S. corn acreage in 2015, and how a possible return to trendline U.S. corn yields and a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production in would be likely affect U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices in the next marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.

KSU projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2015 probability-weighted U.S. corn yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figures 8-9.    

A. “New Crop” 2014/15 KSU Scenario for U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – 40% Probability

- Total Supplies                       = 15.668 bb                             (unchanged vs USDA November WASDE)

- Total Use                               = 13.955 bb                             (ñ2.2% vs USDA November WASDE)

- End Stocks                             =   1.713 bb                             (ò14.7% vs USDA November WASDE)

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 12.3%                                   (vs 14.8% S/U vs USDA November WASDE)

- U.S. Corn Price                      = $3.95/bu                               (vs $3.50, ñ$0.45/bu vs USDA November)

It is estimated here that there is a “4.5 out of 10” or 45% chance that for “new crop” MY 2014/15 final U.S. total corn usage will be 13.995 bb – up 2.2% from the USDA’s November projection of 13,660 bb (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Kansas State University estimates are for 1% higher usage of U.S. corn for ethanol production, non-ethanol FSI usage, and feed-residual use, with exports being up 10% from USDA forecasts.  

With U.S. total supply projections unchanged from the USDA’s November forecast, U.S. corn ending stocks would equal 1.713 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 12.27% for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).   U.S. corn average prices would be projected in the range of $3.60-$4.30 per bushel (midpoint = $3.95) for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

By definition, if the KSU forecast has a 40% likelihood of being accurate, then the alternative USDA forecast of MY 2014/15 U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices would have a 60% likelihood of still occurring.  

B. “Next Crop” 2015/16 KSU Scenario for U.S. Corn S/D Þò 3 million acres planted in 2015”

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 88.885 million acres                        (Less 3.0 million acres vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 80.379 million acres                        (Less 2.7 million acres vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Corn Trend Yield = 162.7 bushels/acre              (Less 10.7 bu/ac. vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production   = 13.073 billion bu. (bb)          (Less 1.334 bb vs 2014 )

- Total Supplies                       = 15.106 bb                             (Less 562 million bu (mb) vs MY 2014/15)

- Total Use                               = 13.650 bb                             (Less 10 mb vs MY 2014/15)

- End Stocks                             = 1.456 bb                               (Less 257 mb vs MY 2014/15)                                                                                                                      

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 10.7% S/U                             (vs 14.8% S/U vs MY 2014/15)

- U.S. Corn Price                      = $4.15 per bushel                  (vs $3.50 /bu ñ$0.45/bu vs MY 2014/15)

The KSU U.S. corn supply-demand scenario reflects the idea that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will be down 2.5-3.0 million acres (Table 1 and Figure 2).  This assumption combined with a return to long term (1973-2014) trend line U.S. corn yields of 162.7 bushels per acre leads to a forecast of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.073 bb.   For “next crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn usage is estimated to be 13.650 bb – up marginally from the USDA’s November projection of 13,660 bb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Kansas State University estimates are for U.S. corn ending stocks to equal 1.456 bb, and for % ending stocks-to-use near 10.66% for “next crop” MY 2015/16.   U.S. corn average prices would be projected to be in the range of $3.80-$4.50 per bushel (midpoint = $4.15) for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year World corn production will be marginally larger than “old crop” MY 2013/14 production.   World corn total supplies of 1,166.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 3.2% over 1,127.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 17.5% over 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.   Consequently, World corn total use is also projected to be 971.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.9% over 954.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 11.0% over 864.7 mmt MY 2012/13.   World corn ending stocks are also projected to continue to increase, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 191.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 10.7% from 173.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 39.0% from 137.8 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

This situation is a result of a number of factors working together over the 2013-2014 period.  First, a historically large 2013 South American feedgrain crop that was harvested in the first half of last year – that was then followed by a record large 2013 U.S. corn crop harvested that fall.  These developments in 2013 led to growth in U.S. and World corn supplies, ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use in what is now “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Then a second consecutive large South American corn crop that was harvested in early 2014 (though less than in 2013) was followed by what is now projected to be a record large 2014 U.S. corn crop.  This growth in available World corn supplies has been driven mainly be increased U.S. production in 2014 as foreign supplies have actually declined moderately from “old crop” MY 2013/14 to “new crop” MY 2014/15. 

These factors combined with only marginal growth (+0.03%) in U.S. use of corn for ethanol production in 2014 have been the major drivers contributing to projections of larger World corn supply-demand balances in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Going forward, the general market consensus is that the larger 2014 World corn supply-demand balances are expected, keeping U.S. and World corn prices relatively low (by recent market standards) in late 2014 and on into 2015.  That said, lower prices in fall 2014 and reduced profitability prospects for corn in “new crop” 2014/15 may impact both South American corn plantings through December-February, and U.S. corn plantings in April-May, and may eventually lead to a reduced World corn supplies, lower ending stocks, and higher corn prices by the first quarter (September-November 2015) in “next crop” MY 2015/16.   

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 990.3 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 989.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14; from 868.0 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 796-888 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 & Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 624.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.7% from 635.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.0% from 594.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for “old crop” MY 2013/14 and in MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in the United States (up 12.3 to 366.0 mmt), the European Union (up 8.9 to 73.1 mmt), and Southeast Asia (up 0.67 to 27.5 mmt).   Year-over-year decreases are projected in “new crop” MY 2014/15 in Argentina (down 2.0 to 23.0 mmt), Brazil (down 4.3 to 75.0 mmt), South Africa (down 1.25 to 13.5 mmt), Canada (down 2.7 to 11.5 mmt), China (down 4.5 to 214.0 mmt), and Ukraine (down 3.9 to 27.0 mmt).  Egypt (5.75 mmt) and Mexico (23.0 mmt) were essentially unchanged from a year earlier. 

The United States (366 mmt) is projected to be the largest producer of corn in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (214 mmt), Brazil (75 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.5 mmt), Ukraine (70 mmt), Argentina and Mexico (23.0 mmt), South Africa (13.5 mmt), Canada (11.5 mmt), and Egypt (5.75 mmt). 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 113.1 mmt, down 13.0% from 129.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, while being up 18.8% from 95.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 68.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 81.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 76.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union-28 countries (up 0.1 mt) and China (up 0.1 mmt), with decreases forecast for the United States (down 4.25 mmt), Argentina (down 2.5 mmt), Brazil (down 2.0 mmt), South Africa (down 0.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.9 mmt), Canada (down 1.4 mmt), and the Ukraine (down 3.5 mmt).     

The United States (44.5 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (19.5 mmt), Ukraine (16.5 mmt), Argentina (13.0 mmt), the European Union (2.5 mmt), South Africa (2.2 mmt), and Canada and Mexico (0.5 mmt).  

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 110.3 mmt, down 9.7% from 122.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 10.9% from 99.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 109.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 121.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 95.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Canada (up 0.1 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union Region-12 countries (up 0.03 mmt).  However, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.27 mmt), Egypt (down 1.0 mmt), the European Union (down 10.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 1.2 mmt), South Korea (down 0.8 mmt), and China (down 0.8 mmt).  Mexico was down marginally.

Japan (15.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the European Union (6.0 mmt), Mexico (10.9 mmt), South Korea (9.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (9.2 mmt), Egypt (7.5 mmt), China (2.5 mmt), Brazil (0.8 mmt), and Canada (0.7 mmt). 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 596.7 mmt, up 3.6% from 576.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 15.0% from 518.8 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 460.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.2% from 445.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 12.5% from 409.2 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn domestic feed use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 6.2 mmt), Argentina (up 0.3 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.2 mmt), Egypt (up 0.5 mmt), Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (up 1.3 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union-12 countries (up 1.62 mmt).  Decreased feed use is projected for Canada (down 1.1 mmt), with no change projected for the European Union.

China (158.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (136.5 mmt), the European Union (57.5 mmt), Brazil (47.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.9 mmt), Mexico (16.5 mmt), Egypt (11.5 mmt), Japan (10.9 mmt), Ukraine (9.0 mmt), South Korea (8.0 mmt), Canada (6.6 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), and South Africa (5.6 mmt). 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 375.1 mmt, down 0.5% from 377.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 8.4% from 345.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 209.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.4% from 212.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up 8.6% from 192.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 1.0 mmt) Argentina (up 0.4 mmt), South Africa (up 0.1 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (up 0.50 mmt), Mexico (up 0.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.1 mmt), and Canada (up 0.2 mmt). A decrease is projected for Japan (down 0.1 mmt), with “no change” forecast for Brazil, South Korea, China, and Ukraine.

The United States (166.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (58.0 mmt), the European Union (19.0 mmt), Mexico (16.8 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.2 mmt), South Africa (6.2 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.1 mmt), Egypt (2.3 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), and Ukraine (1.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 971.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 1.9% from 953.2 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14; 864.7 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 774-867 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 669.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.7% from 657.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 11.2% from 601.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 7.1 mmt), Argentina (up 0.7 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.3 mmt), Egypt (up 0.6 mmt), the European Union (up 0.5 mmt), Japan (up 0.2 mmt), Mexico (up 1.75 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.2 mmt), South Korea (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union (up 1.72 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  A decrease is projected for Canada (down 0.8 mmt). 

The United States (302.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the China (216.0 mmt), the European Union (76.5 mmt), Brazil (56.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (36.1 mmt), Mexico (32.3 mmt), Japan (15.4 mmt), Egypt (13.8 mmt), Canada (12.0 mmt), South Africa (11.8 mmt), Ukraine (10.4 mmt), South Korea (10.1 mmt), and Argentina (9.2 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 191.5 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is an increase of 18.5 mmt (up 10.7%) from 173.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 132 mmt in MY 2007/08; 147 mmt in MY 2008/09; 147 mmt in MY 2009/10; 130 mmt in MY 2010/11; 135 mmt in MY 2011/12; 138 mmt in MY 2012/13; 173 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14; and are projected to be 192 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15.   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 140.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 0.8% from 141.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 26.0% from 116.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of corn ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 19.6 mmt), Argentina (up 0.8 mmt), China (up 0.4 mmt), Ukraine and Mexico (up 0.15 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.12 mmt), and the European Union (small increase).  Decreases are projected for Brazil (down 0.2 mmt), South Africa (down 0.5 mmt), Egypt (down 0.6 mmt), South Korea (down 0.4 mmt), and Canada (down 0.3 mmt).  No change is projected for Japan.  

China (77.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (51.0 mmt), Brazil (17.6 mmt), the European Union (6.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.9 mmt), Argentina (2.93 mmt), Mexico (2.88 mmt), South Africa (2.86 mmt), Ukraine (2.4 mmt), Egypt (1.6 mmt), South Korea (1.4 mmt), Canada (1.3 mmt), and Japan (0.55 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 18.1% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, 15.9% in MY 2012/13, 15.5% in MY 2011/12, and 15.3% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 17.0%-18.9% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.3% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.9% S/U). 

Restated, World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.25% in MY 2010/11 are at the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 19.0% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 19.2% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 17.2% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn % ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Former Soviet Union including Ukraine.   Decreased ending stocks-to-use are projected for Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, Canada, and China, with the European Union being unchanged.

China (36.0%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn in terms of relative usage (i.e., percent ending stocks-to-use) in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (23.1%), South Africa (20.4%), the United States (14.7%), South Korea (14.1%), Argentina (13.2%), Egypt (11.6%), Southeast Asia (10.7%), Canada (10.3%), Ukraine (8.9%), the European Union (8.8%), Mexico (8.5%) and Japan (3.6%). 

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 9), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 11). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 9 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 11 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 15.25% in MY 2010/11 and 15.5% in MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U).   “New crop” projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 19.8% in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15 (November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE & KSU Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Higher Usage

2014/15

KSU

Next Year 2015

2015/16

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

60%

40%

 

Planted Area (million acres)

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.291

95.365

91.885

91.885

88.885

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.6

79.5

81.4

84.0

87.365

87.668

83.097

83.097

80.379

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

90.4%

90.4%

90.4%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.1

158.8

173.4

173.4

162.7

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,236

1,236

2,008

Production (million bu.)

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,755

13,925

14,407

14,407

13,073

Imports (million bu.)

14

8

28

29

160

365

25

25

25

Total Supply (million bu.)

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,904

14,782

15,668

15,668

15,106

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,641

5,134

5,150

  ñ1%   5,200

5,125

Non-ethanol Food, Seed, & Industrial Use (million bu.)

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,397

1,363

1,385

ñ1%   1,400

1,400

Exports (million bu.)

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

730

1,917

1,750

ñ10%   1,925

1,750

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,315

5,132

5,375

ñ1%   5,430

5,375

Total Use (million bu.)

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,083

13,546

13,660

ñ2.2% 13,955

13,650

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,236

2,008

1,713

1,456

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.41%

9.12%

14.78%

12.27%

10.66%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.20-$3.80

($3.50)

$3.60-$4.30

($3.95)

$3.80-$4.50

($4.15)


 

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2014 Plus 2015 KSU Projection

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2014 Plus 2015 Trend Line Projection

Text Box: 1973-2014 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.15 bu + 1.847 bu/year
 
Trend Yield for 2015 = 162.7 bu/acre

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 6. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 6/4/2010 to 
 11/7/2014
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2014/15
Text Box: 2009/10

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through KSU 2015/16 Forecast                                

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Next Year” MY 2015/16)    
(November 10th USDA WASDE Report & KSU Forecast)

Text Box: KSU: “Next Year” 2015/16
10.7% S/U, $4.15 /bu
Text Box: USDA: “New Crop” 2014/15
14.7% S/U, $3.50 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 10. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2014/15 (November 11, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: Lower World Corn Exports in “current” 2014/15 to 113.1 mmt 
 
Down 10.7% in 
“new crop” 2014/15 
from 129.9 mmt
from MY 2013/14 
Text Box: Usage ñ3.6%/yr since 2007/08 
Text Box: Production
ñ3.5%/yr since 2007/08
Text Box: 15 year high in end stocks projected for 
“new crop” 2014/15 
@ 191.5 mmt
 
12 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2014/15 
 @ 19.7% StxUse

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through MY 2014/15)                    
(November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Current Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Corn Production: October 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               November Less October 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         November of               October 2014

November Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14          

May Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14

November Less October Corn  Production             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

990.32

990.69

(0.37)

100.0%

989.19

988.57

0.62

1.13

100.1%

867.97

122.35

114.1%

United States

365.97

367.68

(1.71)

99.5%

353.72

353.72

0.00

12.25

103.5%

273.19

92.78

134.0%

Total Foreign

624.36

623.01

1.35

100.2%

635.47

634.85

0.62

(11.11)

98.3%

594.77

29.59

105.0%

Major Exporters

111.50

111.50

0.00

100.0%

119.05

119.05

0.00

(7.55)

93.7%

120.87

(9.37)

92.2%

Argentina

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

25.00

25.00

0.00

(2.00)

92.0%

27.00

(4.00)

85.2%

Brazil

75.00

75.00

0.00

100.0%

79.30

79.30

0.00

(4.30)

94.6%

81.50

(6.50)

92.0%

South Africa

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

(1.25)

91.5%

12.37

1.13

109.1%

Major Importers

129.48

126.94

2.54

102.0%

119.92

119.36

0.56

9.56

108.0%

111.62

17.86

116.0%

Egypt

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

European Union          - 28 Countries

73.05

71.02

2.03

102.9%

64.19

64.19

0.00

8.86

113.8%

58.87

14.18

124.1%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

23.00

22.50

0.50

102.2%

22.96

22.40

0.56

0.04

100.2%

21.59

1.41

106.5%

Southeast Asia

27.46

27.46

0.00

100.0%

26.79

26.79

0.00

0.67

102.5%

25.22

2.24

108.9%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

14.20

14.20

0.00

(2.70)

81.0%

13.06

(1.56)

88.1%

China

214.00

217.00

(3.00)

98.6%

218.49

218.49

0.00

(4.49)

97.9%

205.61

8.39

104.1%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

42.66

40.66

2.00

104.9%

46.90

46.90

0.00

(4.24)

91.0%

32.31

10.35

132.0%

Ukraine

27.00

26.00

1.00

103.8%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(3.90)

87.4%

20.92

6.08

129.1%


Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Corn Exports: October 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               November Less October 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         November of October 2014

November Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14          

October Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14

November Less October Corn  Exports for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

113.09

114.09

(1.00)

99.1%

129.93

129.03

0.90

(16.84)

87.0%

95.16

17.93

118.8%

United States

44.45

44.45

0.00

100.0%

48.70

48.70

0.00

(4.25)

91.3%

18.55

25.90

239.6%

Total Foreign

68.64

69.64

(1.00)

98.6%

81.23

80.33

0.90

(12.59)

84.5%

76.61

(7.97)

89.6%

Major Exporters

34.70

36.20

(1.50)

95.9%

40.00

39.50

0.50

(5.30)

86.8%

45.69

(10.99)

75.9%

Argentina

13.00

14.00

(1.00)

92.9%

15.50

15.00

0.50

(2.50)

83.9%

18.69

(5.69)

69.6%

Brazil

19.50

20.00

(0.50)

97.5%

21.50

21.50

0.00

(2.00)

90.7%

24.95

(5.45)

78.2%

South Africa

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

3.00

3.00

0.00

(0.80)

73.3%

2.06

0.14

106.8%

Major Importers

3.45

3.45

0.00

100.0%

4.29

4.29

0.00

(0.84)

80.4%

2.82

0.63

122.3%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union          - 28 Countries

2.50

2.50

0.00

100.0%

2.40

2.40

0.00

0.10

104.2%

2.19

0.31

114.2%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.55

0.55

0.00

(0.05)

90.9%

0.52

(0.02)

96.2%

Southeast Asia

0.44

0.44

0.00

100.0%

1.33

1.33

0.00

(0.89)

33.1%

0.09

0.35

488.9%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

1.85

1.85

0.00

(1.35)

27.0%

1.75

(1.25)

28.6%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.07

333.3%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

19.84

19.34

0.50

102.6%

24.55

24.55

0.00

(4.71)

80.8%

15.00

4.84

132.3%

Ukraine

16.50

16.00

0.50

103.1%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(3.50)

82.5%

12.73

3.77

129.6%

 

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Corn Imports: October 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports: November Less October 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         November of October 2014

November Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14          

October Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14

November Less October Corn  Imports             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

110.30

111.72

(1.42)

98.7%

122.19

121.22

0.97

(11.89)

90.3%

99.42

10.88

110.9%

United States

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

0.91

0.89

0.02

(0.27)

70.3%

4.06

(3.42)

15.8%

Total Foreign

109.66

111.09

(1.43)

98.7%

121.28

120.33

0.95

(11.62)

90.4%

95.35

14.31

115.0%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.84

0.84

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.97

(0.13)

86.6%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

(0.05)

37.5%

Major Importers

62.80

63.80

(1.00)

98.4%

75.81

75.10

0.71

(13.01)

82.8%

56.86

5.94

110.4%

Egypt

7.50

7.50

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.00

0.50

(1.00)

88.2%

5.06

2.44

148.2%

European Union          - 28 Countries

6.00

7.00

(1.00)

85.7%

16.00

16.00

0.00

(10.00)

37.5%

11.35

(5.35)

52.9%

Japan

15.40

15.50

(0.10)

99.4%

15.12

15.50

(0.38)

0.28

101.9%

14.41

0.99

106.9%

Mexico

10.90

10.90

0.00

100.0%

10.95

10.70

0.25

(0.05)

99.5%

5.68

5.22

191.9%

Southeast Asia

9.20

9.20

0.00

100.0%

10.43

10.20

0.23

(1.23)

88.2%

7.96

1.24

115.6%

South Korea

9.60

9.50

0.10

101.1%

10.41

10.30

0.11

(0.81)

92.2%

8.17

1.43

117.5%

Canada

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.40

0.10

0.20

140.0%

0.48

0.22

145.8%

China

2.50

3.00

(0.50)

83.3%

3.28

3.50

(0.22)

(0.78)

76.2%

2.70

(0.20)

92.6%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

0.42

0.42

0.00

100.0%

0.42

0.39

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.34

0.08

123.5%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.01

125.0%

 

Table 5. World Corn Domestic Feed Use for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop Year" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Feed Use: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Corn Feed Use: October 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use: November Less October 2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use: Percent (%)         November of October 2014

November Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14          

October Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14

November Less October Corn  Feed Use             for Old Crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Feed Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use             Less 2012/13

% New Crop 2014/15 Feed Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

596.69

596.19

0.50

100.1%

576.07

575.84

0.23

20.62

103.6%

518.77

77.92

115.0%

United States

136.53

136.53

0.00

100.0%

130.36

130.19

0.17

6.17

104.7%

109.60

26.93

124.6%

Total Foreign

460.16

459.66

0.50

100.1%

445.71

445.66

0.05

14.45

103.2%

409.17

50.99

112.5%

Major Exporters

59.20

59.20

0.00

100.0%

57.20

57.00

0.20

2.00

103.5%

54.90

4.30

107.8%

Argentina