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Grain Market Outlook

Corn Market Outlook in March 2015

March 17, 2015


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 10th, corn futures prices have moved sideways-to-lower, at least temporarily diminishing farmer’s hopes that seasonal lows have occurred during January-March 2015.  As of yet, U.S. corn producers have not observed enough market price strength to allow cash prices to move higher into the spring and provide eventual returns to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash sales.  With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, the likelihood of corn futures prices rallying above say $5.00 before spring planting appear limited – unless unexpected, substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World.   

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA made several significant changes in its forecast of U.S. corn usage and ending stocks in the current 2014/15 marketing year, but these adjustments resulted in only a small change in projected average corn prices.  Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.472 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb last year.  Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.695 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (down 50 mb – but up 66 mb from last year), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up 28 mb vs last year), exports of 1.800 bb (up 50 mb but down 117 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb (up 50 mb, and up 264 mb vs last year).  Ending stocks are forecast at 1.777 bb (12.98% S/U) – down 50 mb from February, and 100 mb from January, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  “Current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash prices are forecast the range of $3.50-$3.90 per bu. with a midpoint of $3.70 – up $0.05/bu, vs. $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13. 

USDA and KSU U.S. Corn S/D and Price Forecasts: The USDA’s projected supply-demand, and price scenarios for “next crop” MY 2015/16 (with minor adjustments) are as follows:  a) “2015 Less 1.6 Million Acre-13.6 bb Production” Scenario: 89.000 ma planted, 81.500 ma harvested, early season USDA baseline forecast yields of 166.8 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.595 bb, total supplies of 15.397 bb, total use of 13.760 bb, ending stocks of 1.637 bb, 11.9% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.

Projected supply-demand and price scenarios by KSU for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:  a) “2015 Less 2.5 Million Acre-13.5 bb Production” Scenario (45% prob.): 88.097 ma planted, 80.706 ma harvested, early season USDA forecast yields of 166.8 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.462 bb, total supplies of 15.264 bb, total use of 13.660 bb, ending stocks of 1.604 bb, 11.74% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices;  b) “2015 Less 2.5 Million Acre-13.1 bb Production” Scenario (55% prob.): Planted and harvested acres unchanged from the previous scenario, but with a KSU trend line yield forecast of 162.3 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 13.095 bb, total supplies of 14.897 bb, total use of 13.510 bb, ending stocks of 1.387 bb, 10.27% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 1,162 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,125 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,000 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 185.3 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172.1 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (15.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13.    With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $9.51 ¼ and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.04 ¼ on 3/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 continues to be neutral for the two crops in the United States.  That said, a lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is likely to limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and 2015 corn production potential, and to provide at least a moderate amount of support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16 in the spring and early summer.

I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. March USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On March 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.  

I-B. Corn Futures Trends for Spring 2014-March 2015 Period

A time of seasonal market weakness for feed grains typically has occurred during the months of January-February in large crop – low price years.  And that was largely the case in January-February 2015.  After a low on December 3rd of $3.77 ¼, the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract climbed to a high of $4.12 ¾ on December 29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same day) before declining to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th.  Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th, the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½.  During this same period of time the CME MAY corn futures contract traded as high as to $4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th.  After the December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above $4.00 per bushel – at least through Friday, March 13th.    

The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain market price prospects through late April 2015.  Local basis adjustments are currently being made off MAY 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets.  The “current crop” MAY 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral-to-negative manner to the information in the March 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways-to-lower”.  On the day of the report – Tuesday, March 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.88 per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.83 ¼ - $3.91 ¼ during the session, before settling at $3.88 – down $0.00 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then, MAY 2015 has traded from a high of $3.93 ¾ on Wednesday, March 11th to a low of $3.80 ¼ on Friday, March 13th before closing at $3.80 ½ that same day.   

The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain market price prospects for the mid-October through late-November 2015 time period.  DEC 2015 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges in North American and other World grain markets. The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a “neutral-to-negative” manner to the information in the March 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways-to-lower”.   On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.12 per bushel, trading within the range of $4.07 ¾ - $4.14 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.12 ½ – down $0.00 ½ per bushel for the day (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices has traded from a high of $4.17 ½ on Wednesday, March 11th to a low of $4.04 ½ on Friday, March 13th before closing at $4.04 ¾ that same day. 

 

Figure 1. MAY 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

In its March 2015 USDA WASDE report the USDA made no change from the January-February WASDE reports in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2).  Planted acreage of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.   

In addition, the USDA made no change in its January-February projections of 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage of 83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December.  Harvested acreage of 83.136 ma in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.   

The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% - which had been adjusted up from 91.4% in December.  This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from the January-February USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac in December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3).  This projection of 171.0 bu/ac is up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.  

Based on these 2014 acreage and yield projections, the USDA maintained is earlier January-February projection that 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.216 billion bushels (bb) – down from 14.407 bb in the December USDA reports.  The projection of a record high 14.216 bb is up from the previous record high of 13.829 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 4).   

U.S. Corn Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Total supplies of 15.472 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to recent year’s amounts of 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).  

Beginning stocks of 1.232 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally (down 4 mb) from the October-December USDA WASDE reports.  The total of 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, but less than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09.  This amount of beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.232 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY 1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in  MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought-stressed 2012/13 marketing year.  These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is down 50 mb from February, but still up from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December WASDE report.  These adjustments in the USDA projections are due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in distillers grains co-product prices, and c) increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in the past month (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).   This projection of 5.200 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. 

Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.772-5.374 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 - the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through March 6, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.127 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  This estimate of 5.127 bb is 73 mb less than the USDA’s March 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 27 of 52 weeks (51.9%) of the marketing year completed.               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 7 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates, since MY 2010/11 approximately 0.993-1.130 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year – i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bb in MY 2012/13, 993 mb projected for MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.006 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Over the same five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 299 to 479 mb, – i.e., 326 mb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mb in MY 2011/12, 322 mb in MY 2012/13, 473 mb estimated for MY 2013/14, and a projection of a record high 479 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.800 in “current crop” MY 2014/15 were raised 50 mb in the March WASDE report from the previous month.  This projection of 1.800 bb for MY 2014/15 is down from the estimate of 1.917 bb in MY 2013/14, but are up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year low since MY 1975/76 (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).  According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of March 5th, through the 27rd week of “current crop” MY 2014/15 (27 of 52 weeks), 789.2 mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 43.8% of the USDA’s updated projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.800 bb.  An additional 629.8 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of “current crop” MY 2014/15). 

Adding together 789.2 mb in past shipments plus 629.8 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,419.0 mb, or 78.8% of the USDA’s 1.800 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the March 10th USDA WASDE report with 51.9% (27/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn exports will need to average 40.4 mb per week for the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.800 bb projection.  This compares to 54.3 mb and 45.9 mb of export shipments for the weeks ending February 26th and March 5th, respectively – i.e., ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection.    

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.395 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.367 bb in MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is down 25 mb from January-February, and down 125 mb from the December WASDE (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).  This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.036 bb for MY 2013/14, 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the same time period as shown in what follows.

In the USDA March 10th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-03-12-2015.pdf) the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “current crop” MY 2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – was estimated to be 125.9 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.05% corn), and 134.5 mmt in  MY 2013/14 (95.1% corn), and is projected to be 144.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (93.4% corn).   Over this same 3 year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) were estimated to be 92.3 million in MY 2012/13, 90.9 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and 92.9 million in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.364 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.477 mt/au in MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.551 mt/au in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the record “large crop” MY 2013/14, and now into the new even bigger record large “current crop” MY 2014/15 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has increased – helping to bring downward pressure on the prices of U.S. corn and other feedgrains.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a record high 13.695 bb – up 50 mb from February and up 100 mb from January, and up 25 mb from the December USDA WASDE report.  This compares to the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and is up sharply from 11.083 bb in drought-affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 5 & 7).   United States’ total corn use has varied widely in recent marketing years – due mainly to changes in available U.S. corn supplies.  Corn supplies in the U.S. over time have changed from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and now to the new projected record high amount of 13.695 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. corn ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 1.777 bb – down 50 mb from February, down 100 mb from January, and down 221 mb from the December WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 4).  Since MY 2006/07 (1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, 1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 1.777 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 12.98% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending lower since fall, being down from 13.39% in February, 13.81% in January, 14.62% in December, 14.70% in November, and from 15.3% in the October WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 8-9).  On a year-by-year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.8% in MY 2007/08 and 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 9.2% in MY 2013/14, and now again up to a projected level of 12.98% in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average corn prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.50-$3.90 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.70) (Table 1 & Figures 8-9). This price range is higher by $0.10 /bu on the lower end of the price range from February, with the midpoint of $3.70 being up $0.05 per bushel from the February WASDE report. 

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved first higher, then lower, and then higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  However, if the March 10th WASDE projection holds true, prices will have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.50-$3.90 (midpoint = $3.70) in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  

I-D. USDA & KSU Corn Market Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

Both the USDA and Kansas State University Extension have provided initial forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices for the “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year, with details provided below.   The USDA forecast provided here is an “adjusted version” of the U.S. corn supply-demand and price forecast provided at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum held at Arlington, Virginia on February 19-20, 2015.  Specifically, adjustments were made in the “beginning stocks” MY 2015/16 estimates of these USDA forecasts based on updated U.S. corn beginning stocks information available in the March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE report.  The 2015 USDA Ag Outlook Forum forecasts for corn, wheat, and soybeans are available online: http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2015_Speeches/Grains_Oilseeds.pdf

A. USDA “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projection

For “next crop” MY 2015/16, this USDA projection reflects the likelihood of a 1.6 ma reduction in U.S. corn planted acreage in 2015, and how the USDA projects that a possible return to lower U.S. corn yields in 2015 of 166.8 bu/ac along with a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production would likely affect U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices in the coming “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.   Specifically, these USDA U.S. corn supply-demand scenarios assume that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will be down 1.6 ma from 2014 (Table 1). 

This assumption combined with the USDA’s preliminary 2015 U.S. corn yield projection of 166.8 bu/ac leads to USDA forecast of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.595 bb.   Following this projection of corn production for “next crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn supplies are projected to be 15.397 bb (with the adjustment for 1.777 bb in U.S. corn beginning stocks), while U.S. total corn usage is still estimated to be 13.760 bb (Table 1). 

Consequently, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.637 bb in this adjusted USDA projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16, with % ending stocks-to-use of 11.90%.   The adjusted forecast of U.S. corn average prices (according to KSU estimates) would be $3.70 /bu for “next crop” MY 2015/16, unchanged from “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

Adjusted USDA Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn S/D & Prices

ò 1.6 million acres planted & 166.8 bu/ac yields

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 89.000 million acres                        Less 1.6 million acres (ma) vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 81.500 million acres                        Less 1.6 ma vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Yield (USDA) = 166.8 bushels/acre              Less 4.2 bu/ac. vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production             = 13.595 billion bushels         Less 621 million bushels (mb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies                       = 15.397 bb                             Less 75 mb vs “current crop” MY 2014/15

- Total Use                               = 13.760 bb                             Up 65 mb

- Ending Stocks                        = 1.637 bb                               Less 140 mb                                                                                                                      

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 11.90% S/U                           vs 12.98% S/U in “current” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Corn Price (KSU Adjusted) = $3.70 per bushel                 $3.70 /bu, No Change vs MY 2014/15

 B. KSU “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projections

For “next crop” MY 2015/16, these KSU projections reflect the likelihood of a sizable reduction in U.S. corn planted acreage in 2015, and how a possible return to trend line U.S. corn yields in 2015 along with a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production would likely affect U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices in the coming “next crop” 2015/16 marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.  

Specifically, these KSU U.S. corn supply-demand scenarios assume that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will be down 2.5 million acres from 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 2).  This assumption combined with either the USDA’s preliminary 2015 U.S. corn yield projection of 166.8 bu/ac or a return to long term (1973-2014) trend line U.S. corn yields of 162.3 bu/ac leads to forecast 2015 U.S. corn production in the range of 13.095-13.462 bb.  

Following these projections of corn production for “next crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn usage is then estimated to be in the range of 13.510-13.660 bb – at least moderately less than the USDA’s March 2015 projection of 13.695 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

KSU estimates are for U.S. corn ending stocks to be in the range of 1.387-1.604 bb, and for % ending stocks-to-use in the range of 10.27%-11.74% for “next crop” MY 2015/16.   U.S. corn average prices would be projected to average in the range of $3.95-$4.25 /bu for “next crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

Following are the two U.S. corn supply-demand and price scenarios for “new crop” MY 2015/16, with associated probabilities of occurring.  At this early pre-planting stage of the growing season no probability-weighted “short crop” scenarios are yet included in these KSU MY 2015/16 projections.

1st KSU Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand & Prices

Estimated Probability of Occurring = 45%

ò 2.5 million acres planted & 166.8 bu/ac yields

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 88.097 million acres                        Less 2.5 million acres (ma) vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 80.706 million acres                        Less 2.4 ma vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Yield (USDA) = 166.8 bushels/acre              Less 4.2 bu/ac. vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production             = 13.462 billion bushels         Less 754 million bushels (mb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies                       = 15.264 bb                             Less 208 mb vs MY 2014/15

- Total Use                               = 13.660 bb                             Down 65 mb vs “current” MY 2015/16

- Ending Stocks                        = 1.604 bb                               Less 173 mb vs “current” MY 2015/16                                                                                                                     

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 11.74% S/U                           vs 12.98% S/U in “current” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $3.95 per bushel                 vs $3.70 /bu, ñ$0.25/bu vs MY 2014/15


 

 

2nd KSU Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand & Prices

Estimated Probability of Occurring = 55%

ò 3 million acres planted & 162.3 bu/ac yields

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 88.097 million acres                        Less 2.5 million acres (ma) vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 80.706 million acres                        Less 2.4 ma vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Yield (USDA) = 162.3 bushels/acre              Less 8.7 bu/ac. vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production             = 13.095 billion bushels         Less 1.121 billion bushels (bb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies                       = 14.897 bb                             Less 575 mb vs “current” MY 2014/15

- Total Use                               = 13.510 bb                             Less 185 mb vs “current” MY 2014/15

- Ending Stocks                        = 1.387 bb                               Less 390 mb vs “current” MY 2014/15                                                                                                                     

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 10.27% S/U                           vs 12.98% S/U in “current” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $4.25 per bushel                 vs $3.70 /bu, ñ$0.55/bu vs MY 2014/15

 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online – standing for “Production, Supply, and Distribution Online” – as of March 16, 2015 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), the USDA is forecasting that “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year World corn production will be “equal-to-marginally larger” than MY 2013/14 production.  World corn total supplies of 1,161.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up 3.2% over 1,125.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 16.2% over 1,000.1 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Consequently, World corn total use is projected to be 972.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.9% over 944.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.9% over 868.7 mmt in MY 2012/13.   World corn ending stocks are forecast by the USDA to continue to increase, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 185.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 7.6% from 172.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 36.6% from 135.7 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

World Corn Market Factors That Have Caused Lower Prices  

The situation in World corn markets that currently exists, i.e., that of growing supplies, usage and ending stocks, is a result of a number of events that have worked together over the 2013-early 2015 period.  First, a historically large South American coarse grain crop (primarily corn, with some grain sorghum, and minor amounts of barley and oats) was harvested in the first half of 2013 – that was then followed by a record large 2013 corn crop in the United States harvested in fall 2013.  These developments in 2013 led to growth in U.S. and World corn supplies, ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2013/14.  Then a second consecutive large South American corn crop was harvested in early 2014 (though less than in 2013), that was then followed by another record large U.S. corn crop in 2014.  Growth in available World corn supplies in “current crop” MY 2014/15 has been driven mainly by record high 2014 U.S. production – as foreign supplies have actually declined moderately from MY 2013/14 to “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Other factors have also influenced the corn market, including a) at least marginal growth (+1.3%) in U.S. use of corn for ethanol production from “last year’s” MY 2013/14 into “current crop” MY 2014/15, and b) a resurgence in the quantity of corn in U.S. livestock feed usage.   Taking all these factors together, with larger 2014 World corn supply-demand balances, U.S. and World corn prices are expected to remain relatively low (by recent market standards) on into the spring of 2015.  That said, lower prices in fall 2014 that were associated with reduced profitability prospects for corn in “current crop” 2014/15 led to a “moderation” in South American corn plantings through the December 2014-February 2015, and are likely to lead to reduced U.S. corn plantings to some degree in April-May 2015.   These actions – even absent any U.S. corn production problems in the summer of 2015 – are likely to eventually lead to a reduced World corn supplies, lower ending stocks, and at least moderately higher corn prices by the first quarter (September-November 2015) in “next crop” MY 2015/16 and/or thereafter.   

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 989.66 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 987.61 mmt in MY 2013/14; from 868.0 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 796-888 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 & Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 628.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.5% from 638.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 5.7% from 594.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for MY 2013/14 and in MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the United States (up 9.8 to 361.1 mmt), the European Union (up 9.9 to 74.2 mmt), Mexico (up 0.32 to 23.2 mmt) and Southeast Asia (up 0.79 to 27.7 mmt).  Year-over-year decreases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in Argentina (down 2.5 to 23.5 mmt), Brazil (down 5.0 to 75.0 mmt), South Africa (down 3.5 to 11.5 mmt), Canada (down 2.7 to 11.5 mmt), China (down 3.0 to 215.5 mmt), and Ukraine (down 2.5 to 28.5 mmt).  Egypt (down 0.05 to 5.75 mmt) is essentially unchanged from a year earlier. 

The United States (361.1 mmt) is projected to be the largest producer of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (215.5 mmt), Brazil (75 mmt), Ukraine (28.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.7 mmt), Argentina (23.5 mmt), Mexico (23.2 mmt), South Africa (11.5 mmt), Canada (11.5 mmt), and Egypt (5.75 mmt). 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 116.8 mmt, down 10.4% from 130.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, while being up 22.8% from 95.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 71.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 81.7 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and down from 76.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Marginal year-over-year increases in corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union (up 0.1 mt) and China (up 0.1 mmt), with decreases forecast for the United States (down 3.0 mmt), Argentina (down 2.5 mmt), Brazil (down 0.5 mmt), South Africa (down 1.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.9 mmt), Canada (down 1.45 mmt), and Ukraine (down 2.0 mmt).     

The United States (45.7 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (20.5 mmt), Ukraine (18.0 mmt), Argentina (14.5 mmt), the European Union (2.5 mmt), South Africa (1.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (0.64 mmt), and Canada and Mexico (0.5 mmt).  

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 112.8 mmt, down 7.6% from 122.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 13.5% from 99.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 112.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 121.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up from 95.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Japan (up 0.3 mmt), and Canada (up 1.0 mmt). However, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.27 mmt), Egypt (down 1.0 mmt), the European Union (down 7.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 1.3 mmt), South Korea (down 0.8 mmt), and China (down 0.8 mmt).  Mexico corn imports were projected to be down marginally while projected corn imports by the Former Soviet Union Region-12 countries were unchanged.

Japan (15.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Mexico (10.9 mmt), South Korea (9.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (9.2 mmt), European Union (8.0 mmt), Egypt (7.5 mmt), China (2.5 mmt), Canada (1.5 mmt), Brazil (0.8 mmt), and the U.S (0.64 mmt). 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 597.2 mmt, up 4.2% from 573.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 15.4% from 516.7 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 462.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.9% from 445.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 13.3% from 408.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn domestic feed use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 6.7 mmt), Argentina (up 0.3 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), Egypt (up 0.5 mmt), the European Union (up 1.5 mmt), Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (up 1.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), South Korea (up 0.24 mmt) and the Former Soviet Union-12 countries (up 1.72 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  Decreased feed use is projected for South Africa (down 0.2 mmt), with Canada being essentially unchanged (down 0.02 mmt).

China (158.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (134.6 mmt), the European Union (59.5 mmt), Brazil (47.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.9 mmt), Mexico (16.8 mmt), Egypt (11.5 mmt), Japan (10.9 mmt), Ukraine (9.0 mmt), South Korea (8.0 mmt), Canada (7.5 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), and South Africa (5.2 mmt). 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 379.4 mmt, down 0.2% from 380.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 9.4% from 347.8 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 211.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.4% from 214.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up 9.5% from 193.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 2.4 mmt) Argentina (up 0.3 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (up 0.50 mmt), Mexico (up 0.25 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.1 mmt), Canada (up 0.2 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union Countries (up 0.05 mmt).  “No change” is forecast for Brazil, South Africa, Japan, South Korea, China, and Ukraine.

The United States (167.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (58.0 mmt), the European Union (19.0 mmt), Mexico (16.75 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.2 mmt), South Africa (6.1 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.3 mmt), Egypt (2.3 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), and Ukraine (1.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 976.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up 2.5% from 953.1 mmt for  MY 2013/14; 864.5 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 774.6-866.6 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 674.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.2% from 660.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 12.1% from 601.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 9.1 mmt), Argentina (up 0.6 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), Egypt (up 0.6 mmt), the European Union (up 2.0 mmt), Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (up 1.85 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.2 mmt), South Korea (up 0.2 mmt), Canada (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union (up 1.77 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  A decrease is projected for South Africa (down 0.2 mmt),

The United States (302.15 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the China (216.0 mmt), the European Union (78.5 mmt), Brazil (56.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (36.1 mmt), Mexico (33.55 mmt), Japan (15.4 mmt), Egypt (13.8 mmt), Canada (12.9 mmt), South Africa (11.3 mmt), Ukraine (10.4 mmt), South Korea (10.1 mmt), and Argentina (9.4 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 185.3 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is an increase of 13.1 mmt (up 7.6%) from 172.1 mmt in MY 2013/14 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 129.9 mmt in MY 2007/08; 145.3 mmt in MY 2008/09; 144.2 mmt in MY 2009/10; 127.6 mmt in MY 2010/11; 132.1 mmt in MY 2011/12; 135.7 mmt in MY 2012/13; 172.1 mmt in MY 2013/14; and are projected to be 185.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15.   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 140.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 0.5% from 140.85 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 22.1% from 114.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 13.9 mmt), the European Union (up 1.2 mmt), Mexico (up 0.05 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.15 mmt), China (up 1.9 mmt), and Ukraine (up 0.1 mmt).  Decreases are projected for Argentina (down 0.4 mmt), Brazil (down 1.2 mmt), South Africa (down 0.8 mmt), Egypt (down 0.6 mmt), South Korea (down 0.4 mmt), and Canada (down 0.4 mmt).  No change is projected for Japan.  

China (78.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (47.7 mmt), Brazil (17.6 mmt), the European Union (7.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (4.0 mmt), Mexico (2.9 mmt), South Africa (2.9 mmt), Argentina (2.4 mmt), Ukraine (2.4 mmt), Egypt (1.6 mmt), South Korea (1.4 mmt), Canada (1.2 mmt), and Japan (0.55 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.1% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 18.2% in MY 2013/14, 15.6% in MY 2012/13, 15.3% in MY 2011/12, and 15.0% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 16.8%-18.6% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.0% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.3% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.6% S/U). 

Restated, World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.0% in MY 2010/11 is the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 18.8% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up marginally from 19.0% in MY 2013/14, and up from 16.9% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn % ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, the European Union, Southeast Asia, China, and the Former Soviet Union including Ukraine.   Decreased ending stocks-to-use are projected for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and Canada.

China (36.7%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn in terms of relative usage (i.e., percent ending stocks-to-use) in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (23.1%), South Korea (14.2%), the United States (13.0%), Egypt (11.6%), South Africa (11.4%), Southeast Asia (10.8%), the European Union (9.4%), Canada (9.0%), Ukraine (8.2%), Mexico (8.0%), Argentina (4.7%), and Japan (3.6%). 

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 9), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 11). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 9 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 11 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 15.0% in MY 2010/11 and 15.3% in MY 2011/12.   “Current crop” projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 19.1% in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE & KSU Forecasts)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

USDA

KSU Adjusted

2015/16

KSU

USDA Yield

2015/16

KSU

KSU Yield

2015/16

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

85%

 

45%

55%

Planted Area (million acres)

85.982

86.382

88.192

91.921

97.291

95.365

90.597

ò1.6 89.000

ò2.5 88.097

ò2.5 88.097

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.570

79.490

81.446

83.981

87.365

87.451

83.136

ò1.6 81.500

ò2.4 80.706

ò2.4 80.706

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.7%

91.8%

91.6%

91.6%

91.6%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.1

158.1

171.0

166.8

  USDA 166.8

KSU 162.3

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

***1,777

1,777

1,777

Production (million bu.)

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,755

13,829

14,216

13,595

13,462

13,095

Imports (million bu.)

14

8

28

29

160

36

25

25

25

25

Total Supply (million bu.)

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,904

14,686

15,472

15,397

15,264

14,897

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,641

5,134

5,200

  5,225

5,200

5,150

Non-ethanol Food, Seed, & Industrial Use (million bu.)

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,397

1,367

1,395

1,410

1,410

1,410

Exports (million bu.)

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

730

1,917

1,800

1,850

1,800

1,750

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,315

5,036

5,300

 5,275

5,250

5,200

Total Use (million bu.)

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,083

13,454

13,695

13,760

13,660

13,510

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,777

***1,637

1,604

1,387

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.41%

9.16%

12.98%

11.90%

11.74%

10.27%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.50-$3.90

($3.70)

***$3.70

$3.95

 

$4.25


 

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2014 Plus 2015 KSU Projection

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2014 Plus 2015 USDA & KSU Trend Line Projections

Text Box: 1973-2014 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.31 bu + 1.836 bu/year
 
KSU Trend Yield for 2015 = 162.25 bu/acre

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

Figure 6. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 6/4/2010 to 
 3/6/2015
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2014/15
Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2009/10

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through KSU MY 2015/16 Forecast                                

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Next Year” MY 2015/16)    
(March 10th USDA WASDE Report & KSU Forecast)

Text Box: USDA: “Current Crop” 2014/15
13.0% S/U, $3.70 /bu
Text Box: KSU: “Next Year” 2015/16
10.3% S/U, $4.25 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 10. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2014/15 (March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: 15 year high in end stocks projected for 
“current crop” 2014/15 
@ 185.3 mmt
 
12 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2014/15 
 @ 19.1% StxUse
Text Box: Lower World Corn Exports in “current” 2014/15 to 116.8 mmt 
 
Down 11.4% in 
“current crop” 2014/15 
from 130.4 mmt
from MY 2013/14 
Text Box: Usage ñ3.6%/yr since 2007/08 
Text Box: Production
ñ3.5%/yr since 2007/08

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through MY 2014/15)                    
(March 10, 2015 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74


Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: Current crop 2014/15     March 2015

Corn Production: February 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production:               March Less February 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         March of               February 2015

March Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14          

February Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14

March Less February Corn  Production             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

989.66

991.29

(1.63)

99.8%

989.61

989.04

0.57

0.05

100.0%

868.00

121.66

114.0%

United States

361.09

361.09

0.00

100.0%

351.27

351.27

0.00

9.82

102.8%

273.19

87.90

132.2%

Total Foreign

628.57

630.20

(1.63)

99.7%

638.34

637.77

0.57

(9.77)

98.5%

594.80

33.77

105.7%

Major Exporters

110.00

111.50

(1.50)

98.7%

120.98

120.48

0.50

(10.98)

90.9%

120.87

(10.87)

91.0%

Argentina

23.50

23.00

0.50

102.2%

26.00

26.00

0.00

(2.50)

90.4%

27.00

(3.50)

87.0%

Brazil

75.00

75.00

0.00

100.0%

80.00

79.50

0.50

(5.00)

93.8%

81.50

(6.50)

92.0%

South Africa

11.50

13.50

(2.00)

85.2%

14.98

14.98

0.00

(3.48)

76.8%

12.37

(0.87)

93.0%

Major Importers

131.01

131.01

0.00

100.0%

120.01

120.01

0.00

11.00

109.2%

111.65

19.36

117.3%

Egypt

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

European Union 

74.16

74.16

0.00

100.0%

64.26

64.26

0.00

9.90

115.4%

58.90

15.26

125.9%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

23.20

23.20

0.00

100.0%

22.88

22.88

0.00

0.32

101.4%

21.59

1.61

107.5%

Southeast Asia

27.68

27.68

0.00

100.0%

26.89

26.89

0.00

0.79

102.9%

25.22

2.46

109.8%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

14.19

14.19

0.00

(2.69)

81.0%

13.06

(1.56)

88.1%

China

215.50

215.50

0.00

100.0%

218.49

218.49

0.00

(2.99)

98.6%

205.61

9.89

104.8%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

43.64

43.77

(0.13)

99.7%

46.90

46.90

0.00

(3.26)

93.0%

32.31

11.33

135.1%

Ukraine

28.45

28.45

0.00

100.0%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(2.45)

92.1%

20.92

7.53

136.0%

 

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: Current crop 2014/15     March 2015

Corn Exports: February 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:               March Less February 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         March of February 2015

March Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14          

February Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14

March Less February Corn  Exports for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

116.84

115.14

1.70

101.5%

130.38

130.58

(0.20)

(13.54)

89.6%

95.16

21.68

122.8%

United States

45.72

44.45

1.27

102.9%

48.70

48.70

0.00

(2.98)

93.9%

18.55

27.17

246.5%

Total Foreign

71.12

70.69

0.43

100.6%

81.67

81.87

(0.20)

(10.55)

87.1%

76.61

(5.49)

92.8%

Major Exporters

36.00

35.50

0.50

101.4%

40.00

40.20

(0.20)

(4.00)

90.0%

45.69

(9.69)

78.8%

Argentina

14.50

13.50

1.00

107.4%

17.00

16.50

0.50

(2.50)

85.3%

18.69

(4.19)

77.6%

Brazil

20.50

19.50

1.00

105.1%

21.00

21.50

(0.50)

(0.50)

97.6%

24.95

(4.45)

82.2%

South Africa

1.00

2.50

(1.50)

40.0%

2.00

3.00

(1.00)

(1.00)

50.0%

2.06

(1.06)

48.5%

Major Importers

3.65

3.65

0.00

100.0%

4.45

4.45

0.00

(0.80)

82.0%

2.82

0.83

129.4%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union   

2.50

2.50

0.00

100.0%

2.40

2.40

0.00

0.10

104.2%

2.19

0.31

114.2%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.52

(0.02)

96.2%

Southeast Asia

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

1.53

1.53

0.00

(0.89)

41.8%

0.09

0.55

711.1%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

1.95

1.95

0.00

(1.45)

25.6%

1.75

(1.25)

28.6%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.02

0.00

0.08

500.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

20.76

20.84

(0.08)

99.6%

24.65

24.65

0.00

(3.89)

84.2%

15.00

5.76

138.4%

Ukraine

18.00

18.00

0.00

100.0%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(2.00)

90.0%

12.73

5.27

141.4%

 

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: Current crop 2014/15     March 2015

Corn Imports: February 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports: March Less February 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         March of February 2015

March Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14          

February Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14

March Less February Corn  Imports             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.80

112.10

0.70

100.6%

122.12

122.16

(0.04)

(9.32)

92.4%

99.42

13.38

113.5%

United States

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

0.91

0.91

0.00

(0.27)

70.3%

4.06

(3.42)

15.8%

Total Foreign

112.16

111.46

0.70

100.6%

121.21

121.25

(0.04)

(9.05)

92.5%

95.36

16.80

117.6%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.83

0.83

0.00

0.01

101.2%

0.97

(0.13)

86.6%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03