K-State AgManager.info website
  About     Contributors     Useful links     Site map      Feedback  

Search AgManager.Info:

 

K-State AgManager.info website
Agribusiness
Crops
Energy
Farm Management
Livestock & Meat
Policy
Decision Tools
--------------------
Ag Econ News
Contributors
Programs
Sponsors
Upcoming Events
Presentations Archive
--------------------
K-State Dept. of Agricultural Economics
--------------------
Department Theses & Dissertations
--------------------
KFMA
--------------------
SIGN-UP for Weekly Email Updates
--------------------
--------------------
--------------------
PFT
AgManager.info: Grain Outlook
AgManager.info: Crops
   Home / Crops

Marketing

Insurance
 and Risk

Projected
Budgets

Production
Economics

Links to Other
Crop Information

Grain Market Outlook Risk Management Non-Irrigated Crops Production Enterprise Summaries
KSRN Grain Market Interview Price Risk Management Irrigated Crops Precision Ag Policy
Crop Basis Tool & Maps Crop Insurance Price Histories Decision Tools Decision Tools Storage & Handling
Grain Basis Issues Decision Tools     Other Crop Links
Decision Tools Interest Rate Forecasts      
Grain Supply and Demand        

PDF: Current Grain Outlook
 

Focused on Grains Blog, by Dan O'Brien

KSRN Radio Interview

Previous Grain Outlooks

Grain Market Outlook

Corn Market Outlook in December 2014

December 17, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on December 10th, MAR 2015 and DEC 2015 corn futures prices have moved higher, raising hopes of an eventual return to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash prices.  With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine).  Absent such a foreign production shortfall in coming months, price prospects are likely to be limited until at least April-May 2015 - the main U.S. corn planting season.   

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record 14.407 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of 90.885 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.097 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre.  The USDA projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels), up 6.0% from 14.782 bb last year.  Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.670 bb (up 10 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.150 bb (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up 10 mb from a month ago), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.375 bb (up 243 mb vs last year).  “Current crop” ending stocks are forecast at 1.998 bb (14.6% S/U) – up from 1.236 bb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  The USDA left unchanged its forecast that “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices will be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bu. with a midpoint of $3.50 – down from $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13. 

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative projection by KSU Extension to the USDA for “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn supply-demand and prices is as follows:  “Increased Usage” Scenario: 30% prob. of 15.668 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.965 bb total use (up 2.2% from USDA), 1.703 bb ending stocks, 12.2% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price (compared to $3.50 /bu by the USDA).    

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: A KSU projection for “next crop” MY 2015/16 for U.S. corn is as follows:  “2015 Less 2 Million Acre” Scenario: 88.885 ma planted in 2015, 81.268 ma harvested, trend yields of 162.7 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.222 bb, U.S. corn supplies of 15.246 bb, total use of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.545 bb, 11.3% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn season average prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 1,164 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and from 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 192.2 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 173 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Combined “current crop” MY 2014/15 corn production for the U.S.’ major export competitors Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.3) and Argentina (22.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 7.3 mmt from MY 2013/14.  Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 27.0 mmt is down 3.9 mmt from a year ago.  South American acreage decisions either have been or are being made now for later plantings of 2015 crops in the Dec-January period.  With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $10.02 and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.30 ¾ on 12/16/2014, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.33 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being essentially equal to the customary 2.3 breakeven level).  If South American farmers were to shift sizable acreage away from corn into 2015 soybeans – markedly diminishing foreign 2015 production prospects, and/or have weather-induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March-April 2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively affected – which could impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices (i.e., more U.S. corn acres, and less soybean acres).

I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. December 2014 USDA Reports & “Current crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December  2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn production estimates for 2014.  The December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report – which was based on farmer surveys and objective field plot measurement information gathered during the October 25th through November 5th period.  The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for corn, other feedgrains, wheat, soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015.   On that same day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.

Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for both the  2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The  2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  

I-B. Corn Futures Trends for the October-December 2014 Period

Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month).  The DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up $0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.  

A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January-February in large crop – low price years.  Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring, 2015.  However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract on October 1st could be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in coming months.    

The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral-to-negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.  On the day of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ - $3.98 ¼ during the session, before settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then, MAR 2015 has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.12 ½ on Monday, December 15th before closing at $4.08 ½ on that same day.   

The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain market price prospects through mid-March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for current cash corn and grain sorghum price bids are made off of in North American grain markets. 

The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral-to-negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.    On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading within the range of $4.16 ¾ - $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel for the day (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.36 ½ on Monday, December 15th, before closing at $4.32 ¾ on that same day.

The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain market price prospects for the mid-October through mid-December 2015 time period.  DEC 2015 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets. 

Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA made no changes in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 90.885 million acres (ma) (Table 1 and Figure 2).  Planted acreage of 90.885 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011.   In addition, the USDA made no change in its projection of 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage of 83.097 ma – down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.   The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.4%, down from 91.9% in to 2013, but up from 89.8% in 2012, and equal to 91.4% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from November, but is down from the earlier USDA projection of 174.2 bu/ac in October (Table 1 and Figure 3).  This projection of 173.4 bu/ac in November-December is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.  

Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.407 billion bushels (bb) – larger than the previous record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Corn Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.668 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.236 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.407 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Total supplies of 15.668 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.782 bb in  MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).  

Beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from October-November, but are up sharply from 821 mb in  MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13.  This amount of beginning stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in  MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought-stressed 2012/13 marketing year.  These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.150 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from November but up 25 mb from September-October – following from expectations of low corn input prices and a continuation of at least marginal profitability for U.S. ethanol production (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).   This projection of 5.150 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14 (down 2 mb), and up from 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. 

Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.911-5.508 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 - the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through December 5, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.185 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  This estimate of 5.185 bb is 35 mb more than the USDA’s December 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.150 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 14 of 52 weeks (26.9%) of the marketing year completed.               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 7 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates, since MY 2010/11 approximately 1.049-1.164 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.049 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.160 bb projected for  MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.164 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Over the same five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 307 mb, with approximately 307 bb of DDGS-corn equivalents projected for the “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.750 in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down from the estimate of 1.917 bb in  MY 2013/14, but are up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year low since MY 1975/76 (Figures 5 and 7).  According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of December 4th, through the fourteenth week of “current crop” MY 2014/15 (14 of 52 weeks), 391.2 mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 22.4% of the USDA’s updated projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.750 bb.  An additional 542.1 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of “current crop” MY 2014/15). 

Adding together 391.2 mb in past shipments plus 542.1 mb in forward sales amounts to 933.3 mb, or 53.3% of the USDA’s 1.750 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the December 10th USDA WASDE report with 26.9% (14/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn exports will need to average 35.8 mb per week for the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.750 bb projection.  This compares to 29.4 mb and 26.7 mb of export shipments for the weeks ending November 27th and December 4th, respectively – behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection.    

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.395 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.363 bb in  MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figures 5 and 7).

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.375 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from October-November, but up 25 mb from the September WASDE report (Figures 5 and 7).  This projection of 5.375 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.132 bb for MY 2013/14, and up from 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13.  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the same time period as shown in what follows.

In the USDA December 12th Feed Outlook Report (http://www.http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-12-12-2014.pdf)  the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “current crop” MY 2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – was estimated to be 125.8 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.1% corn), and 137.0 mmt in  MY 2013/14 (95.2% corn), and is projected to be 146.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (93.1% corn).   Over this same three year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units were estimated to be 92.3 million in MY 2012/13, and 90.3 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 90.7 million in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.363 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.517 mt/au in MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.616 mt/au in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to MY 2013/14, and now into record large “current crop” MY 2014/15 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has increased – bring downward pressure on corn prices.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 13.670 bb – up 10 mb from November and up 15 mb from October.  This amount is up from 13.546 bb in MY 2013/14, and up sharply from 11.083 bb in drought-affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 5 & 7).  United States’ total corn use has varied largely in recent marketing years due mainly to changes in available U.S. corn supplies, trending from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the current record high of 13.546 bb in MY 2013/14, and the projected new record high amount of 13.670 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. corn ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 1.998 bb – down 10 mb from November and down 83 mb from the October WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 4).  This forecast amount of U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.998 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 1.236 bb in  MY 2013/14, and from 821 mb in MY 2012/13.  Since MY 2006/07 (1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, and 1.236 bb in MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 1.998 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 14.62% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is down marginally from 14.70% in November, and from 15.3% in the October WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 8-9).  United States’ corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.8% in MY 2007/08 and 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 9.1% in MY 2013/14, and now to a projected level of 14.6% in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average corn prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.50) (Table 1 & Figures 8-9) – unchanged from November, but up from $3.10-$3.70 (midpoint = $3.40) in the October WASDE report, and the same as the September WASDE report. 

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower, and higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  However, if the December 10th WASDE report projection holds true, prices will now have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in  MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50) in “current” MY 2014/15.  

I-D. KSU U.S. Corn Market Scenarios: “Current crop” MY 2014/15 & “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

Kansas State University Extension forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances for “current crop” in the 2014/15 and “next crop” 2015/16 marketing years are provided below.   Given the market information available in mid-December 2014, these conservative price projections that follow seem reasonable – especially for the current marketing year, i.e., “current crop” MY 2014/15.  However, some marginal amount of 2014 U.S. corn production uncertainty still remains that may be resolved in the January 12, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production Annual Summary report.  Also, there is the possibility that the USDA is overly pessimistic in its projections of U.S. corn usage in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – which would ultimately lead to lower U.S. corn supply-demand balances, and at least marginally higher prices than are currently being projected for the current marketing year.

A. KSU “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projection

These Kansas State University supply-demand and price projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 reflect the possibility of U.S. corn usage being underestimated by the USDA in the current marketing year.  KSU projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2015 probability-weighted U.S. corn yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figures 8-9.    

 “Current crop” 2014/15 KSU Scenario for U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – 30% Probability

- Total Supplies                       = 15.668 bb                             (unchanged vs USDA December WASDE)

- Total Use                               = 13.965 bb                             (ñ2.2% vs USDA December WASDE)

- End Stocks                             =   1.703 bb                             (ò14.8% vs USDA December WASDE)

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 12.2%                                   (vs 14.6% S/U vs USDA December WASDE)

- U.S. Corn Price                      = $3.95/bu                               (vs $3.50, ñ$0.45/bu vs USDA December)

It is estimated here that there is a “3 out of 10” or 30% chance that for “current crop” MY 2014/15 final U.S. total corn usage will be 13.965 bb – up 2.2% from the USDA’s December projection of 13,670 bb (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Kansas State University estimates are for 1% higher usage of U.S. corn for ethanol production, non-ethanol FSI usage, and feed-residual use, with exports being up 10% from USDA December forecasts.  

With U.S. total supply projections unchanged from the USDA’s December forecast, U.S. corn ending stocks would equal 1.703 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 12.19% for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).   U.S. corn average prices would be projected in the range of $3.60-$4.30 per bushel (midpoint = $3.95) for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

By definition, if the KSU forecast has a 30% likelihood of being accurate, then the alternative USDA forecast for MY 2014/15 would have a 70% likelihood of still occurring.  

B. KSU “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projection

However, for “next crop” MY 2015/16, these KSU projections reflect the likelihood of a reduction in U.S. corn planted acreage in 2015 of 2-3 million acres, and how a possible return to trendline U.S. corn yields in 2015 and a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production would likely affect U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices in the next marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.   Specifically, this KSU U.S. corn supply-demand scenario assumes that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will be down 2.0 million acres from 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 2).  This assumption combined with a return to long term (1973-2014) trend line U.S. corn yields of 162.7 bushels per acre leads to a forecast of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.222 bb.   For “next crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn usage is estimated to be 13.700 bb – up marginally from the USDA’s November projection of 13,670 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Kansas State University estimates are for U.S. corn ending stocks to equal 1.545 bb, and for % ending stocks-to-use near 11.3% for “next crop” MY 2015/16.   U.S. corn average prices would be projected to be in the range of $3.85-$4.55 per bushel (midpoint = $4.20) for “next crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

 “Next Crop” 2015/16 KSU Scenario for U.S. Corn S/D Þò 2 million acres planted in 2015”

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 88.885 million acres                        (Less 2.0 million acres vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 81.268 million acres                        (Less 1.8 million acres vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Corn Trend Yield = 162.7 bushels/acre              (Less 10.7 bu/ac. vs 2014)

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production   = 13.222 billion bu. (bb)          (Less 1.185 bb vs 2014 )

- Total Supplies                       = 15.245 bb                             (Less 423 million bu (mb) vs MY 2014/15)

- Total Use                               = 13.700 bb                             (Up 30 mb vs MY 2014/15)

- End Stocks                             = 1.545 bb                               (Less 453 mb vs MY 2014/15)                                                                                                                      

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 11.3% S/U                             (vs 14.6% S/U vs MY 2014/15)

- U.S. Corn Price                      = $4.20 per bushel                  (vs $3.50 /bu, ñ$0.70/bu vs MY 2014/15)

 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year World corn production will be marginally larger than MY 2013/14 production.   World corn total supplies of 1,164.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up 3.3% over 1,127.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 16.2% over 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.   Consequently, World corn total use is also projected to be 972.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.9% over 954.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 12.4% over 864.7 mmt MY 2012/13.   World corn ending stocks are also projected to continue to increase, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 192.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 11.2% from 172.8 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and up 39.5% from 137.8 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

World Corn Market Factors That Have Caused Lower Prices  

This situation of growing supplies, usage and ending stocks of World corn is a result of a number of factors working together over the 2013-2014 period.  First, a historically large 2013 South American feedgrain crop was harvested in the first half of last year – that was then followed by a record large 2013 corn crop in the United States harvested in fall 2013.  These developments in 2013 led to growth in U.S. and World corn supplies, ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use in what is now MY 2013/14.  Then a second consecutive large South American corn crop was harvested in early 2014 (though less than in 2013) that was then followed by a record large 2014 U.S. corn crop.  Growth in available World corn supplies in “current year” MY 2014/15 has been driven mainly by record high 2014 U.S. production – as foreign supplies have actually declined moderately from MY 2013/14 to “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

These factors combined with only marginal growth (+0.03%) in U.S. use of corn for ethanol production in 2014 have been the major drivers contributing to projections of larger World corn supply-demand balances in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Going forward, with larger 2014 World corn supply-demand balances U.S. and World corn prices are expected to remain relatively low (by recent market standards) in late 2014 and on into the spring of 2015.  That said, lower prices in fall 2014 and reduced profitability prospects for corn in “current crop” 2014/15 may impact both South American corn plantings through December-February, and U.S. corn plantings in April-May, and may eventually lead to a reduced World corn supplies, lower ending stocks, and higher corn prices by the first quarter (September-November 2015) in “next crop” MY 2015/16 and thereafter.   

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 991.6 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 989.3 mmt in  MY 2013/14; from 868.0 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 796-888 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 & Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 625.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.6% from 635.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 5.2% from 594.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for MY 2013/14 and in MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the United States (up 12.3 to 366.0 mmt), the European Union (up 9.4 to 73.6 mmt), and Southeast Asia (up 0.79 to 27.7 mmt).   Year-over-year decreases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in Argentina (down 3.0 to 22.0 mmt), Brazil (down 4.3 to 75.0 mmt), South Africa (down 1.25 to 13.5 mmt), Canada (down 2.7 to 11.5 mmt), China (down 3.0 to 215.5 mmt), and Ukraine (down 3.9 to 27.0 mmt).  Egypt (5.75 mmt) and Mexico (23.0 mmt) were essentially unchanged from a year earlier. 

The United States (366 mmt) is projected to be the largest producer of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (215.5 mmt), Brazil (75 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.7 mmt), Ukraine (27.0 mmt), Mexico (23.0 mmt), Argentina (22.0 mmt), South Africa (13.5 mmt), Canada (11.5 mmt), and Egypt (5.75 mmt). 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 112.3 mmt, down 13.7% from 130.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, while being up 18.1% from 95.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 67.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 81.4 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and down from 76.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union-28 countries (up 0.1 mt) and China (up 0.1 mmt), with decreases forecast for the United States (down 4.25 mmt), Argentina (down 3.5 mmt), Brazil (down 2.0 mmt), South Africa (down 0.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.9 mmt), Canada (down 1.4 mmt), and the Ukraine (down 3.5 mmt).     

The United States (44.5 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (19.5 mmt), Ukraine (16.5 mmt), Argentina (12.0 mmt), the European Union (2.5 mmt), South Africa (2.2 mmt), Southeast Asia (0.64 mmt), and Canada and Mexico (0.5 mmt).  

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 109.8 mmt, down 10.0% from 122.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 10.4% from 99.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 109.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 121.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up from 95.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Japan (up 0.3 mmt), and Canada (up 0.2 mmt). However, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.27 mmt), Egypt (down 1.0 mmt), the European Union (down 9.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 132 mmt), South Korea (down 0.8 mmt), and China (down 1.3 mmt).  Mexico was down marginally while projected corn imports by the Former Soviet Union Region-12 countries were unchanged.

Japan (15.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Mexico (10.9 mmt), South Korea (9.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (9.2 mmt), Egypt (7.5 mmt), the European Union (6.0 mmt), China (2.0 mmt), Brazil (0.8 mmt), Canada (0.7 mmt) and the United States (0.6 mmt). 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 597.1 mmt, up 3.3% from 578.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 15.1% from 518.8 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 460.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.4% from 445.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 12.6% from 409.2 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn domestic feed use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 6.2 mmt), Argentina (up 0.3 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.2 mmt), the European Union and Egypt (up 0.5 mmt), Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (up 1.3 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union-12 countries (up 1.62 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  Decreased feed use is projected for Canada (down 1.1 mmt).

China (158.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (136.5 mmt), the European Union (58.0 mmt), Brazil (47.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.9 mmt), Mexico (16.5 mmt), Egypt (11.5 mmt), Japan (10.9 mmt), Ukraine (9.0 mmt), South Korea (8.0 mmt), Canada (6.6 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), and South Africa (5.6 mmt). 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 375.1 mmt, down 0.3% from 376.3 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and up 8.4% from 345.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 208.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.1% from 213.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up 8.45% from 192.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 1.2 mmt) Argentina (up 0.2 mmt), South Africa (up 0.1 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (up 0.50 mmt), Mexico (up 0.25 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.1 mmt), and Canada (up 0.2 mmt).  “No change” forecast for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, China, and Ukraine.

The United States (166.3 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (58.0 mmt), the European Union (19.0 mmt), Mexico (16.8 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.2 mmt), South Africa (6.2 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.1 mmt), Egypt (2.3 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), and Ukraine (1.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 971.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up 1.9% from 954.3 mmt for  MY 2013/14; 864.7 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 774-867 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 669.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.6% from 658.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.3% from 601.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 7.4 mmt), Argentina (up 0.5 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.3 mmt), Egypt (up 0.6 mmt), the European Union (up 1.0 mmt), Japan (up 0.32 mmt), Mexico (up 1.55 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.2 mmt), South Korea (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union (up 1.72 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  A decrease is projected for Canada (down 0.8 mmt). 

The United States (302.8 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the China (216.0 mmt), the European Union (77.0 mmt), Brazil (56.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (36.1 mmt), Mexico (33.3 mmt), Japan (15.4 mmt), Egypt (13.8 mmt), Canada (12.0 mmt), South Africa (11.8 mmt), Ukraine (10.4 mmt), South Korea (10.1 mmt), and Argentina (9.2 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 192.2 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is an increase of 19.4 mmt (up 11.2%) from 172.8 mmt in MY 2013/14 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 132 mmt in MY 2007/08; 147 mmt in MY 2008/09; 147 mmt in MY 2009/10; 130 mmt in MY 2010/11; 135 mmt in MY 2011/12; 138 mmt in MY 2012/13; 173 mmt in MY 2013/14; and are projected to be 192 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15.   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 141.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, unchanged from MY 2013/14, and up 21.0% from 116.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 19.4 mmt), Argentina (up 0.8 mmt), China (up 1.4 mmt), Ukraine, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (up 0.15 mmt), and the European Union (up 0.1 mmt).  Decreases are projected for Brazil (down 0.2 mmt), South Africa (down 0.5 mmt), Egypt (down 0.6 mmt), South Korea (down 0.4 mmt), and Canada (down 0.3 mmt).  No change is projected for Japan.  

China (78.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (50.75 mmt), Brazil (17.55 mmt), the European Union (6.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.95 mmt), Argentina (2.93 mmt), Mexico (2.92 mmt), South Africa (2.86 mmt), Ukraine (2.39 mmt), Egypt (1.6 mmt), South Korea (1.42 mmt), Canada (1.29 mmt), and Japan (0.55 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.8% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 18.1% in MY 2013/14, 15.9% in MY 2012/13, 15.5% in MY 2011/12, and 15.3% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 17.0%-18.9% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.3% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.9% S/U).  

Restated, World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.25% in MY 2010/11 are at the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 19.2% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up marginally from 19.1% in  MY 2013/14, and up from 17.2% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn % ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Former Soviet Union including Ukraine.   Decreased ending stocks-to-use are projected for Japan, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, Canada, China, and the European Union.

China (36.4%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn in terms of relative usage (i.e., percent ending stocks-to-use) in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (23.1%), South Africa (20.4%), the United States (14.6%), South Korea (14.1%), Argentina (13.8%), Egypt (11.6%), Southeast Asia (10.8%), Canada (10.3%), Ukraine (8.9%), Mexico (8.7%) the European Union (8.6%), and Japan (3.6%).  

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 9), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 11). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 9 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 11 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 15.25% in MY 2010/11 and 15.5% in MY 2011/12.   “Current crop” projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 19.8% in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE & KSU Forecasts)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Higher Usage

2014/15

KSU

Next Year 2015

2015/16

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

70%

30%

 

Planted Area (million acres)

85.982

86.382

88.192

91.921

97.291

95.365

90.885

90.885

ò 2.0 ma 88.885

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.570

79.490

81.446

83.981

87.365

87.668

83.097

83.097

ò 1.8 ma 81.268

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

91.4%

91.4%

91.4%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.1

158.8

173.4

173.4

Trend Yield 162.7

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,236

1,236

1,998

Production (million bu.)

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,755

13,925

14,407

14,407

13,222

Imports (million bu.)

14

8

28

29

160

36

25

25

25

Total Supply (million bu.)

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,904

14,782

15,668

15,668

15,245

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,641

5,134

5,150

  ñ1%   5,200

5,125

Non-ethanol Food, Seed, & Industrial Use (million bu.)

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,397

1,363

1,395

ñ1%   1,410

1,400

Exports (million bu.)

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

730

1,917

1,750

ñ10%   1,925

1,800

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,315

5,132

5,375

ñ1%   5,430

5,375

Total Use (million bu.)

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,083

13,546

13,670

ñ2.2% 13,965

13,700

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,236

1,998

1,703

1,545

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.41%

9.12%

14.62%

12.19%

11.28%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.20-$3.80

($3.50)

$3.60-$4.30

($3.95)

$3.85-$4.55

($4.20)


 

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2014 Plus 2015 KSU Projection

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2014 Plus 2015 Trend Line Projection

Text Box: 1973-2014 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.15 bu + 1.847 bu/year
 
Trend Yield for 2015 = 162.7 bu/acre

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 6. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 6/4/2010 to 
 12/8/2014
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2014/15
Text Box: 2009/10

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through KSU 2015/16 Forecast                                

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Next Year” MY 2015/16)    
(December 10th USDA WASDE Report & KSU Forecast)

Text Box: KSU: “Next Year” 2015/16
11.3% S/U, $4.10 /bu
Text Box: USDA: “Current crop” 2014/15
14.6% S/U, $3.50 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 10. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2014/15 (November 11, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: Lower World Corn Exports in “current” 2014/15 to 113.1 mmt 
 
Down 13.7% in 
“current crop” 2014/15 
from 130.1 mmt
from MY 2013/14 
Text Box: Usage ñ3.6%/yr since 2007/08 
Text Box: Production
ñ3.5%/yr since 2007/08
Text Box: 15 year high in end stocks projected for 
“current crop” 2014/15 
@ 192.2 mmt
 
12 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2014/15 
 @ 19.8% StxUse

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through MY 2014/15)                    
(December 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: Current crop 2014/15     December 2014

Corn Production: November 2014 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production:               December Less November 2014                    

Current crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         December of               November 2014

December Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14          

November Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14

December Less November Corn  Production             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

991.58

990.32

1.26

100.1%

989.28

989.19

0.09

2.30

100.2%

867.97

123.61

114.2%

United States

365.97

365.97

0.00

100.0%

353.72

353.72

0.00

12.25

103.5%

273.19

92.78

134.0%

Total Foreign

625.62

624.36

1.26

100.2%

635.57

635.47

0.10

(9.95)

98.4%

594.77

30.85

105.2%

Major Exporters

110.50

111.50

(1.00)

99.1%

119.05

119.05

0.00

(8.55)

92.8%

120.87

(10.37)

91.4%

Argentina

22.00

23.00

(1.00)

95.7%

25.00

25.00

0.00

(3.00)

88.0%

27.00

(5.00)

81.5%

Brazil

75.00

75.00

0.00

100.0%

79.30

79.30

0.00

(4.30)

94.6%

81.50

(6.50)

92.0%

South Africa

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

(1.25)

91.5%

12.37

1.13

109.1%

Major Importers

130.24

129.48

0.76

100.6%

120.01

119.92

0.09

10.23

108.5%

111.62

18.62

116.7%

Egypt

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

European Union 

73.59

73.05

0.54

100.7%

64.19

64.19

0.00

9.40

114.6%

58.87

14.72

125.0%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

22.96

22.96

0.00

0.04

100.2%

21.59

1.41

106.5%

Southeast Asia

27.68

27.46

0.22

100.8%

26.89

26.79

0.10

0.79

102.9%

25.22

2.46

109.8%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

14.19

14.20

(0.01)

(2.69)

81.0%

13.06

(1.56)

88.1%

China

215.50

214.00

1.50

100.7%

218.49

218.49

0.00

(2.99)

98.6%

205.61

9.89

104.8%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

42.66

42.66

0.00

100.0%

46.90

46.90

0.00

(4.24)

91.0%

32.31

10.35

132.0%

Ukraine

27.00

27.00

0.00

100.0%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(3.90)

87.4%

20.92

6.08

129.1%

 

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: Current crop 2014/15     December 2014

Corn Exports: November 2014 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:               December Less November 2014                    

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14          

November Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14

December Less November Corn  Exports for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.34

113.09

(0.75)

99.3%

130.14

129.93

0.21

(17.80)

86.3%

95.16

17.18

118.1%

United States

44.45

44.45

0.00

100.0%

48.70

48.70

0.00

(4.25)

91.3%

18.55

25.90

239.6%

Total Foreign

67.89

68.64

(0.75)

98.9%

81.43

81.23

0.20

(13.54)

83.4%

76.61

(8.72)

88.6%

Major Exporters

33.70

34.70

(1.00)

97.1%

40.00

40.00

0.00

(6.30)

84.3%

45.69

(11.99)

73.8%

Argentina

12.00

13.00

(1.00)

92.3%

15.50

15.50

0.00

(3.50)

77.4%

18.69

(6.69)

64.2%

Brazil

19.50

19.50

0.00

100.0%

21.50

21.50

0.00

(2.00)

90.7%

24.95

(5.45)

78.2%

South Africa

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

3.00

3.00

0.00

(0.80)

73.3%

2.06

0.14

106.8%

Major Importers

3.65

3.45

0.20

105.8%

4.45

4.29

0.16

(0.80)

82.0%

2.82

0.83

129.4%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union   

2.50

2.50

0.00

100.0%

2.40

2.40

0.00

0.10

104.2%

2.19

0.31

114.2%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.55

(0.05)

0.00

100.0%

0.52

(0.02)

96.2%

Southeast Asia

0.64

0.44

0.20

145.5%

1.53

1.33

0.20

(0.89)

41.8%

0.09

0.55

711.1%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

1.85

1.85

0.00

(1.35)

27.0%

1.75

(1.25)

28.6%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.03

(0.01)

0.08

500.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

19.84

19.84

0.00

100.0%

24.65

24.55

0.10

(4.81)

80.5%

15.00

4.84

132.3%

Ukraine

16.50

16.50

0.00

100.0%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(3.50)

82.5%

12.73

3.77

129.6%

 

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: Current crop 2014/15     December 2014

Corn Imports: November 2014 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports: December Less November 2014                    

Current crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14          

November Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14

December Less November Corn  Imports             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

109.80

110.30

(0.50)

99.5%

122.05

122.19

(0.14)

(12.25)

90.0%

99.42

10.38

110.4%

United States

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

0.91

0.91

0.00

(0.27)

70.3%

4.06

(3.42)

15.8%

Total Foreign

109.16

109.66

(0.50)

99.5%

121.14

121.28

(0.14)

(11.98)

90.1%

95.35

13.81

114.5%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.83

0.84

(0.01)

0.01

101.2%

0.97

(0.13)

86.6%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

(0.05)

37.5%

Major Importers

62.80

62.80

0.00

100.0%

75.72

75.81

(0.09)

(12.92)

82.9%

56.86

5.94

110.4%

Egypt

7.50

7.50

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.50

0.00

(1.00)

88.2%

5.06

2.44

148.2%

European Union  

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

15.82

16.00

(0.18)

(9.82)

37.9%

11.35

(5.35)

52.9%

Japan

15.40

15.40

0.00

100.0%

15.12

15.12

0.00

0.28

101.9%

14.41

0.99

106.9%

Mexico

10.90

10.90

0.00

100.0%

10.95

10.95

0.00

(0.05)

99.5%

5.68

5.22

191.9%

Southeast Asia

9.20

9.20

0.00

100.0%

10.53

10.43

0.10

(1.33)

87.4%

7.96

1.24

115.6%

South Korea

9.60

9.60

0.00

100.0%

10.41

10.41

0.00

(0.81)

92.2%

8.17

1.43

117.5%

Canada

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.20

140.0%

0.48

0.22

145.8%

China

2.00

2.50

(0.50)

80.0%

3.28

3.28

0.00

(1.28)

61.0%

2.70

(0.70)

74.1%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

0.42

0.42

0.00

100.0%

0.42

0.42

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.34

0.08

123.5%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.04

0.01

125.0%

 

Table 5. World Corn Domestic Feed Use for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Feed Use: Current crop 2014/15     December 2014

Corn Feed Use: November 2014 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use: December Less November 2014                    

Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use: Percent (%)         December of November 2014

December Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14          

November Corn Feed Use: Old Crop 2013/14

December Less November Corn  Feed Use             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Feed Use: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Feed Use of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

597.12

596.69

0.43

100.1%

577.99

576.07

1.92

19.13

103.3%

518.77

78.35

115.1%

United States

136.53

136.53

0.00

100.0%

130.36

130.36

0.00

6.17

104.7%

109.60

26.93

124.6%

Total Foreign

460.59

460.16

0.43

100.1%

445.63

445.71

(0.08)

14.96

103.4%

409.17

51.42

112.6%

Major Exporters

59.20

59.20

0.00

100.0%

57.20

57.20

0.00

2.00

103.5%

54.90

4.30

107.8%

Argentina

6.10

6.10

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

0.30

105.2%

5.30

0.80

115.1%

Brazil

47.50

47.50

0.00

100.0%

46.00

46.00

0.00

1.50

103.3%

44.50

3.00

106.7%

South Africa

5.60

5.60

0.00

100.0%

5.40

5.40

0.00

0.20

103.7%

5.10

0.50

109.8%

Major Importers

137.00

136.50

0.50

100.4%

133.00

133.00

0.00

4.00

103.0%

119.58

17.42

114.6%

Egypt

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

11.00