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Grain Market Outlook

Corn Market Outlook in February 2015

February 18, 2015


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on February 10th, MAR 2015 and DEC 2015 corn futures prices have moved sideways, raising hopes that seasonal lows in January-February have occurred, and that prices may eventually move higher into the spring and provide eventual returns to storage for U.S. crop producers resisting sales at sub-$4.00 cash prices.  With 1) a record high 2014 U.S. corn crop, and 2) prospects for record or near-record World corn production and ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, prospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine).  Absent these occurrences, price prospects are limited until at least April-May 2015 - the main U.S. corn planting season.   

USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record 14.216 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage of 90.597 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.136 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre.  Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb last year.  Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 mb from last year), non-ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up 28 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (up 214 mb vs last year).  Ending stocks are forecast at 1.827 bb (13.4% S/U) – down 50 mb from a month ago, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  The USDA forecast that “current crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices to be in the range of $3.40-$3.90 per bu. with a midpoint of $3.65 – vs. $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13. 

KSU U.S. Corn Increased Usage Scenario for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative KSU forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is:  20% prob. of 15.472 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.741 bb total use (up 0.7% from USDA), 1.731 bb ending stocks, 12.6% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn price (up $0.15 vs USDA)   

KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: Two KSU projections for “next crop” MY 2015/16 are as follows:  a) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre-13.4 bb Production” Scenario: 87.597 ma planted, 80.248 ma harvested, early season USDA baseline forecast yields of 167.2 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.417 bb, total supplies of 15.269 bb, total use of 13.725 bb, ending stocks of 1.444 bb, 10.52% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices;  b) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre-13.0 bb Production” Scenario: Planted and harvested acres unchanged, but a KSU trend line yield forecast of 162.3 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 13.024 bb, total supplies of 14.876 bb, total use of 13.585 bb, ending stocks of 1.291 bb, 9.50% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World total supplies of 1,165 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 189.6 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 138 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  Combined MY 2014/15 corn production of major exporters Brazil (75.0 mmt – down 4.5) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 10.5 mmt (down 10%) from MY 2013/14.  Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 28.5 mmt is down 2.45 mmt from a year ago.  With closing CME NOV-2015 soybean futures of $9.86 ¼ and CME DEC-2015 corn futures of $4.20 ½ on 2/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being equal to the customary 2.3 breakeven level).  Lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is likely to limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and corn production potential, and to provide at least a moderate amount of support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16.


I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. February USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On February 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.  

I-B. Corn Futures Trends for Spring 2014-February 2015 Period

Since the spring of 2014 CME corn futures prices have trended sharply lower in response to record high 2014 U.S. corn production and other factors in the U.S. and World corn market.  Following a high on May 9, 2014 of $5.14 ¾ per bushel, DECEMBER 2014 corn futures trended down to a low of $3.18 ¼ on October 1st – which has proven to be the fall harvest low in the 2014/15 marketing year. Following the October 1st low, the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up $0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.  

That same day MARCH 2015 corn futures ended up trading $0.09 higher from the start of the day, closing at $4.07 ½, up $0.11 ¼ from the DEC 2014 contract expiration price.  Since December 12, 2014 the MARCH 2015 contract initially trended higher up to $4.17 on December 29th, but then trended lower over the next month down to a low of $3.65 ¾ on January 30th.  During February 2015, MARCH 2015 corn traded from a low of $3.70 on February 3rd up to a high of $3.91 ¾ on February 9th, before closing at $3.89 ½ on February 17th.

A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January-February in large crop – low price years.  And that has been somewhat the case so far in January-February 2015.  However, to date the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract on October 1, 2014 is still markedly below the Jan-Feb 2015 low of $3.65 ¾ on January 30th – an indication of the level of underlying demand for low priced corn in the current 2014/15 marketing year.    

The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain market price prospects through late February 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments are currently being made off of for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids are made off of in North American and other World grain markets. The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral-to-negative manner to the information in the February 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways”.  On the day of the report – Tuesday, February 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.90 ¾ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.88 - $3.91 ½ during the session, before settling at $3.88 – down $0.03 ¼ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then, MAR 2015 has traded from a low of $3.31 ¼ on Thursday, February 12th to a high of $3.90 on Tuesday, February 17th before closing at $3.89 ½ that same day.   

The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain market price prospects for the mid-October through late-November 2015 time period.  DEC 2015 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids in North American and other World grain markets. The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral-to-negative manner to the information in the February 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended sideways-to-lower.   On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.20 ½ per bushel, trading within the range of $4.14 ¼ - $4.21 during the session, before settling at $4.18 ½ – down $0.02 ¾ per bushel for the day (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices has traded from a low of $4.11 ½ on Thursday, February 12th to a high of $4.20 ¾ on Tuesday, February 17th before closing at $4.20 ½ that same day. 

 

Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA made no change from the January WASDE report in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2).  Planted acreage of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.   

In addition, the USDA made no change in its January projection of 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage of 83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December.  Harvested acreage of 83.136 ma in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.   

The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% - which had been adjusted up from 91.4% in December.  This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011. 

The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from the January USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac in December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3).  This projection of 171.0 bu/ac in January-February is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.  

Based on these 2014 acreage and yield projections, the USDA maintained is January projection that 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.216 billion bushels (bb) – down from 14.407 bb in the December USDA reports.  The projection of a record high 14.216 bb is up from the previous record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).   

U.S. Corn Total Supplies

The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Total supplies of 15.472 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to recent year’s amounts of 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).  

Beginning stocks of 1.232 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally (- 4 mb) from October-December USDA WASDE reports.  The total of 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, but less than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09.  This amount of beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.232 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY 1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in  MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought-stressed 2012/13 marketing year.  These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December WASDE report – due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in distillers grains co-product prices, and c) increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in recent weeks (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).   This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. 

Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.911-5.530 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 - the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through February 6, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.277 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  This estimate of 5.277 bb is 27 mb more than the USDA’s February 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 23 of 52 weeks (44.2%) of the marketing year completed.               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 7 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates, since MY 2010/11 approximately 1.049-1.130 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year – i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bb in MY 2012/13, 993 mb projected for MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.016 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  Over the same five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 299 to 484 mb, – i.e., 326 mb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mb in MY 2011/12, 322 mb in MY 2012/13, 473 mb estimated for MY 2013/14, and a projection of a record high 484 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.750 in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down from the estimate of 1.917 bb in MY 2013/14, but are up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year low since MY 1975/76 (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).  According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of February 5th, through the 23rd week of “current crop” MY 2014/15 (23 of 52 weeks), 627.6 mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 35.9% of the USDA’s updated projection for “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.750 bb.  An additional 677.5 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of “current crop” MY 2014/15). 

Adding together 627.6 mb in past shipments plus 677.5 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,305.1 mb, or 74.6% of the USDA’s 1.750 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the February 10th USDA WASDE report with 44.2% (23/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn exports will need to average 38.7 mb per week for the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.750 bb projection.  This compares to 28.1 mb and 24.4 mb of export shipments for the weeks ending January 29th and February 5th, respectively – behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection.    

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.395 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.367 bb in MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is down 25 mb from January, and down 125 mb from the December WASDE (Table 1, Figures 5 and 7).  This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.036 bb for MY 2013/14, 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the same time period as shown in what follows.

In the USDA February 13th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-02-13-2015.pdf) the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “current crop” MY 2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – was estimated to be 125.9 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.1% corn), and 134.5 mmt in  MY 2013/14 (95.1% corn), and is projected to be 142.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (93.4% corn).   Over this same three year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units were estimated to be 92.3 million in MY 2012/13, and 90.9 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 92.8 million in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.364 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.477 mt/au in MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.539 mt/au in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the “record large crop” MY 2013/14, and now into the new record large “current crop” MY 2014/15 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has increased – helping to bring downward pressure on corn and other feedgrain prices.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a record high 13.645 bb – up 50 mb from January, but down 25 mb from the December USDA WASDE report.  This amount is up from the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and up sharply from 11.083 bb in drought-affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 5 & 7).  United States’ total corn use has varied widely in recent marketing years due mainly to changes in available U.S. corn supplies, trending from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and the projected new record high amount of 13.645 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

U.S. corn ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 1.827 bb – down 50 mb from January and down 171 mb from the December WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 4).  Since MY 2006/07 (1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, 1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 1.827 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 13.39% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending lower since fall, being down from 13.81% in January, 14.62% in December, 14.70% in November, and from 15.3% in the October WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 8-9).  On a year-by-year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.8% in MY 2007/08 and 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 9.2% in MY 2013/14, and now to a projected level of 13.4% in “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

U.S. average corn prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.40-$3.90 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.65) (Table 1 & Figures 8-9). This price range is narrower by $0.05 /bu on each end of the range from January, but up from a forecast range of $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50) in the December WASDE report. 

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower, and higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  However, if the February 10th WASDE report projection holds true, prices will now have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.40-$3.90 (midpoint = $3.65) in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  

I-D. KSU Corn Market Scenarios: MY 2014/15 & “Next Crop” MY 2015/16

Kansas State University Extension forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices for the “current crop” 2014/15 and “next crop” 2015/16 marketing years are provided below.   Given the market information available in mid-February, the conservative price projections that follow seem reasonable – especially for the current marketing year, i.e., “current crop” MY 2014/15.  There is the possibility that the USDA is overly pessimistic in its projections of U.S. corn usage in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – which would ultimately lead to lower U.S. corn supply-demand balances, and at least marginally higher prices than are currently being projected for the current marketing year.

A. KSU “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projection

These KSU supply-demand and price projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 reflect the possibility of U.S. corn usage being underestimated by the USDA in the current marketing year.  KSU projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2015 probability-weighted U.S. corn yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are based on projections of U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figures 8-9.    

 “Current crop” 2014/15 KSU Scenario for U.S. Corn Supply-Demand – 20% Probability

- Total Supplies                       = 15.472 bb                             unchanged vs February WASDE

- Ethanol for fuel use              =   5.303 bb                             ñ1.0% (+53 mb)

- Exports                                  =   1.768 bb                             ñ1.0% (+18 mb)

- Feed & Residual use             =   5.275 bb                             ñ0.5% (+25 mb)

- Total Use                              = 13.741 bb                             ñ0.7% (+96 mb) from February WASDE

- End Stocks                             =   1.731 bb                             ò5.25% (‒96 mb)

- % Ending Stocks/Use             = 12.6%                                   vs 13.4% S/U in February WASDE

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $3.80/bu                              vs $3.65, ñ$0.15/bu vs February WASDE

It is estimated here that there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance that for “current crop” MY 2014/15 final U.S. total corn usage will be 13.741 bb – up 0.7% from the USDA’s February 2014 projection of 13,645 bb (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Kansas State University estimates are for 1% higher usage of U.S. corn for ethanol production, and exports, with feed-residual use up 0.57% from USDA February projections.   

With U.S. total supply projections unchanged from the USDA’s February forecast, U.S. corn ending stocks would equal 1.731 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 12.60% for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).   U.S. corn average prices would be projected to rise $0.15 to $3.80 per bushel for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9).  By definition, if the KSU forecast has a 20% likelihood of being accurate, then the alternative USDA forecast for MY 2014/15 would have a 80% likelihood of still occurring.  

B. KSU “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Projections

For “next crop” MY 2015/16, these KSU projections reflect the likelihood of a sizable reduction in U.S. corn planted acreage in 2015, and how a possible return to trend line U.S. corn yields in 2015 and a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production would likely affect U.S. corn supply-demand balances and prices in the next marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015 through August 31, 2016.   Specifically, these KSU U.S. corn supply-demand scenarios assume that 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage will be down 3.0 million acres from 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 2).  This assumption combined with either the USDA’s preliminary baseline 2015 U.S. corn yield projection of 167.2 bu/ac or a return to long term (1973-2014) trend line U.S. corn yields of 162.7 bu/ac leads to forecast of 2015 U.S. corn production in the range of 13.024-13.417 bb.   Following these projections of corn production for “next crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn usage is then estimated to be in the range of 13.585-13.725 bb – not far different from the USDA’s February 2015 projection of 13.645 bb for “current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  KSU estimates are for U.S. corn ending stocks to be in the range of 1.291-1.444 bb, and for % ending stocks-to-use in the range of 9.50%-10.52% for “next crop” MY 2015/16.   U.S. corn average prices would be projected to average in the range of $4.15-$4.30 /bu for “next crop” MY 2015/16 (Table 1 and Figures 8-9). 

1st KSU Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand & Prices

ò 3 million acres planted & 167.2 bu/ac yields

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 87.597 million acres                        Less 3.0 million acres (ma) vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 80.248 million acres                        Less 2.7 ma vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Yield (USDA) = 167.2 bushels/acre              Less 3.8 bu/ac. vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production             = 13.417 billion bushels         Less 799 million bushels (mb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies                       = 15.269 bb                             Less 203 mb vs MY 2014/15

- Total Use                               = 13.725 bb                             Up 80 mb

- Ending Stocks                        = 1.444 bb                               Less 383 mb                                                                                                                      

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 10.52% S/U                           vs 13.39% S/U in “current” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $4.15 per bushel                 vs $3.65 /bu, ñ$0.50/bu vs MY 2014/15

 

2nd KSU Scenario for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply/Demand & Prices

ò 3 million acres planted & 162.3 bu/ac yields

- 2015 U.S. Planted Acres       = 87.597 million acres                        Less 3.0 million acres (ma) vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Harvested Acres   = 80.248 million acres                        Less 2.7 ma vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Yield (USDA) = 162.3 bushels/acre              Less 8.7 bu/ac. vs 2014

- 2015 U.S. Corn Production             = 13.024 billion bushels         Less 1.192 billion bushels (bb) vs 2014

- Total Supplies                       = 14.876 bb                             Less 596 mb vs MY 2014/15

- Total Use                               = 13.585 bb                             Less 60 mb

- Ending Stocks                        = 1.291 bb                               Less 536 mb                                                                                                                      

- Ending Stocks/Use                = 9.50% S/U                             vs 13.39% S/U in “current” MY 2014/15

- U.S. Corn Price                     = $4.30 per bushel                 vs $3.65 /bu, ñ$0.65/bu vs MY 2014/15

 

 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year World corn production will be marginally larger than MY 2013/14 production.  World corn total supplies of 1,165.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up 3.3% over 1,127.1 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 16.2% over 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Consequently, World corn total use is also projected to be 975.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 2.3% over 953.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 12.8% over 864.5 mmt MY 2012/13.   World corn ending stocks are also projected to continue to increase, with the USDA projecting ending stocks of 189.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 9.1% from 173.8 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 37.4% from 138.1 mmt in MY 2012/13.  

World Corn Market Factors That Have Caused Lower Prices  

The situation in World corn markets that currently exists with growing supplies, usage and ending stocks is a result of a number of factors working together over the 2013-early 2015 period.  First, a historically large 2013 South American feedgrain crop was harvested in the first half of last year – that was then followed by a record large 2013 corn crop in the United States harvested in fall 2013.  These developments in 2013 led to growth in U.S. and World corn supplies, ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2013/14.  Then a second consecutive large South American corn crop was harvested in early 2014 (though less than in 2013) that was then followed by another record large 2014 U.S. corn crop.  Growth in available World corn supplies in “current crop” MY 2014/15 has been driven mainly by record high 2014 U.S. production – as foreign supplies have actually declined moderately from MY 2013/14 to “current crop” MY 2014/15. 

These factors combined with moderate growth (+4.7%) in U.S. use of corn for ethanol production in 2014 have been the major drivers contributing to projections of larger World corn supply-demand balances in “current crop” MY 2014/15.  With larger 2014 World corn supply-demand balances, U.S. and World corn prices are expected to remain relatively low (by recent market standards) in late winter and on into the spring of 2015.  That said, lower prices in fall 2014 and reduced profitability prospects for corn in “current crop” 2014/15 have led to a moderation in South American corn plantings through December-February, and are likely to lead to reduced U.S. corn plantings in April-May 2015.   These actions – even absent any U.S. corn production problems in the summer of 2015 – are likely to eventually lead to a reduced World corn supplies, lower ending stocks, and at least moderately higher corn prices by the first quarter (September-November 2015) in “next crop” MY 2015/16 and thereafter.   

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 988.1 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 987.7 mmt in MY 2013/14; from 868.0 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 796-888 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 2 & Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 627.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 1.5% from 636.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 5.2% from 594.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for MY 2013/14 and in MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the United States (up 9.8 to 361.1 mmt), the European Union (up 9.4 to 73.7 mmt), and Southeast Asia (up 0.79 to 27.7 mmt).  Year-over-year decreases are projected in “current crop” MY 2014/15 in Argentina (down 3.0 to 22.0 mmt), Brazil (down 4.3 to 75.0 mmt), South Africa (down 1.25 to 13.5 mmt), Canada (down 2.7 to 11.5 mmt), China (down 3.0 to 215.5 mmt), and Ukraine (down 3.9 to 27.0 mmt).  Egypt (5.75 mmt) and Mexico (23.0 mmt) were essentially unchanged from a year earlier. 

The United States (361 mmt) is projected to be the largest producer of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (215.5 mmt), Brazil (75 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.7 mmt), Ukraine (27.0 mmt), Mexico (23.0 mmt), Argentina (22.0 mmt), South Africa (13.5 mmt), Canada (11.5 mmt), and Egypt (5.75 mmt). 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 112.3 mmt, down 14.0% from 130.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, while being up 18.1% from 95.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 67.9 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 81.4 mmt in  MY 2013/14, and down from 76.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union (up 0.1 mt) and China (up 0.1 mmt), with decreases forecast for the United States (down 4.25 mmt), Argentina (down 4.0 mmt), Brazil (down 2.0 mmt), South Africa (down 0.8 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 0.9 mmt), Canada (down 1.4 mmt), and Ukraine (down 3.5 mmt).     

The United States (44.5 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (19.5 mmt), Ukraine (16.5 mmt), Argentina (12.0 mmt), the European Union (2.5 mmt), South Africa (2.2 mmt), Southeast Asia (0.64 mmt), and Canada and Mexico (0.5 mmt).  

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 110.1 mmt, down 9.9% from 122.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 10.7% from 99.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 109.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down from 121.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up from 95.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Japan (up 0.3 mmt), and Canada (up 0.5 mmt). However, decreased imports are projected for the United States (down 0.27 mmt), Egypt (down 1.0 mmt), the European Union (down 8.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (down 1.3 mmt), South Korea (down 0.8 mmt), and China (down 1.3 mmt).  Mexico imports were projected to be down marginally while projected corn imports by the Former Soviet Union Region-12 countries were unchanged.

Japan (15.4 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Mexico (10.9 mmt), South Korea (9.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (9.2 mmt), Egypt (7.5 mmt), the European Union (7.0 mmt), China (2.0 mmt), Canada (1.0 mmt), Brazil (0.8 mmt), and the U.S (0.6 mmt). 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 594.2 mmt, up 3.7% from 573.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 15.0% from 516.7 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 460.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.3% from 445.3 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 12.8% from 408.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn domestic feed use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn feed use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 6.1 mmt), Argentina (up 0.3 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.2 mmt), the European Union and Egypt (up 0.5 mmt), Japan (up 0.3 mmt), Mexico (up 1.3 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.1 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt),South Korea (up 0.2 mmt) and the Former Soviet Union-12 countries (up 1.62 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  Decreased feed use is projected for Canada (down 0.6 mmt).

China (158.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (134.0 mmt), the European Union (58.0 mmt), Brazil (47.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (27.9 mmt), Mexico (16.5 mmt), Egypt (11.5 mmt), Japan (10.9 mmt), Ukraine (9.0 mmt), South Korea (8.0 mmt), Canada (7.0 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), and South Africa (5.6 mmt). 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 376.9 mmt, down 0.8% from 380.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 8.4% from 347.8 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 210.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.3% from 215.0 mmt in MY 2013/14, but up 8.6% from 193.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 1.8 mmt) Argentina (up 0.2 mmt), South Africa (up 0.1 mmt), Egypt (up 0.1 mmt), the European Union (up 0.50 mmt), Mexico (up 0.25 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 0.1 mmt), Canada (up 0.2 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union Countries (up 0.1 mmt).  “No change” is forecast for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, China, and Ukraine.

The United States (166.9 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (58.0 mmt), the European Union (19.0 mmt), Mexico (16.8 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.2 mmt), South Africa (6.2 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.1 mmt), Egypt (2.3 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), and Ukraine (1.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 971.2 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up 1.9% from 953.4 mmt for  MY 2013/14; 864.5 mmt in MY 2012/13; and the range of 774-867 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 10).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 670.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.5% from 660.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 11.4% from 601.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 7.8 mmt), Argentina (up 0.5 mmt), Brazil (up 1.5 mmt), South Africa (up 0.3 mmt), Egypt (up 0.6 mmt), the European Union (up 1.0 mmt), Japan (up 0.32 mmt), Mexico (up 1.55 mmt), Southeast Asia (up 1.2 mmt), South Korea (up 0.2 mmt), China (up 4.0 mmt), and the Former Soviet Union (up 1.72 mmt) – including Ukraine (up 0.5 mmt).  A decrease is projected for Canada (down 0.4 mmt). 

The United States (300.9 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the China (216.0 mmt), the European Union (77.5 mmt), Brazil (56.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (36.1 mmt), Mexico (33.3 mmt), Japan (15.4 mmt), Egypt (13.8 mmt), Canada (12.4 mmt), South Africa (11.8 mmt), Ukraine (10.4 mmt), South Korea (10.1 mmt), and Argentina (9.2 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 189.2 mmt for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is an increase of 16.9 mmt (up 9.8%) from 172.2 mmt in MY 2013/14 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 131.6 mmt in MY 2007/08; 147.4 mmt in MY 2008/09; 146.6 mmt in MY 2009/10; 130.0 mmt in MY 2010/11; 134.5 mmt in MY 2011/12; 138.1 mmt in MY 2012/13; 173.8 mmt in MY 2013/14; and are projected to be 189.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15.   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 141.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up 0.4% from 140.9 mmt in MY 2013/14, and up 20.8% from 117.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn ending stocks in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States (up 16.4 mmt), Argentina (up 0.8 mmt), the European Union (up 1.0 mmt), Ukraine, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (up 0.15 mmt), and China (up 1.4 mmt),.  Decreases are projected for Brazil (down 0.2 mmt), South Africa (down 0.5 mmt), Egypt (down 0.6 mmt), South Korea (down 0.4 mmt), and Canada (down 0.4 mmt).  No change is projected for Japan.  

China (78.7 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (47.7 mmt), Brazil (17.6 mmt), the European Union (7.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (4.0 mmt), Mexico (2.9 mmt), South Africa (2.9 mmt), Argentina (2.4 mmt), Ukraine (2.4 mmt), Egypt (1.6 mmt), South Korea (1.4 mmt), Canada (1.2 mmt), and Japan (0.55 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.5% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up from 18.1% in MY 2013/14, 16.0% in MY 2012/13, 15.5% in MY 2011/12, and 15.2% in MY 2010/11, while being greater than the top end of the range of 17.0%-18.9% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.3% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.5% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.9% S/U). 

Restated, World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.3% in MY 2010/11 is the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 19.2% in “current crop” MY 2014/15, up marginally from 19.0% in MY 2013/14, and up from 17.3% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in corn % ending stocks-to-use in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Mexico, the European Union, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Former Soviet Union including Ukraine.   Decreased ending stocks-to-use are projected for Japan, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, Canada, and China.

China (36.4%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn in terms of relative usage (i.e., percent ending stocks-to-use) in “current crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Brazil (23.1%), South Africa (20.4%), the United States (13.8%), South Korea (14.1%), Argentina (11.5%), Egypt (11.6%), Southeast Asia (10.8%), Canada (9.2%), Ukraine (8.9%), Mexico (8.7%), the European Union (9.2%), and Japan (3.6%). 

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 9), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 11). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices.  Conversely smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 9 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 11 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 15.3% in MY 2010/11 and 15.5% in MY 2011/12.   “Current crop” projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 19.5% in “current crop” MY 2014/15.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE & KSU Forecasts)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Higher Usage

2014/15

KSU

USDA Yield

2015/16

KSU

KSU Yield

2015/16

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

80%

20%

 

 

Planted Area (million acres)

85.982

86.382

88.192

91.921

97.291

95.365

90.597

90.597

ò3.0 87.597

ò3.0 87.597

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.570

79.490

81.446

83.981

87.365

87.451

83.136

83.136

ò2.7 80.248

ò1.8 80.248

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.7%

91.8%

91.8%

91.6%

91.6%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.1

158.1

171.0

171.0

  USDA 167.2

KSU 162.3

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,232

1,827

1,827

Production (million bu.)

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,755

13,829

14,216

14,216

13,417

13,024

Imports (million bu.)

14

8

28

29

160

36

25

25

25

25

Total Supply (million bu.)

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,904

14,686

15,472

15,472

15,269

14,876

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,641

5,134

5,250

  ñ1.0% 5,303

5,250

5,200

Non-ethanol Food, Seed, & Industrial Use (million bu.)

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,397

1,367

1,395

1,395

1,400

1,385

Exports (million bu.)

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

730

1,917

1,750

ñ1.0% 1,768

1,850

1,800

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,315

5,036

5,250

 ñ0.5% 5,275

5,225

5,200

Total Use (million bu.)

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,083

13,454

13,645

ñ0.7% 13,741

13,725

13,585

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,827

ò5.25% 1,731

1,444

1,291

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.41%

9.16%

13.39%

12.60%

10.52%

9.50%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.40-$3.90

($3.65)

$3.55-$4.15

($3.80)

$3.65-$4.65

 ($4.15)

 

$3.80-$4.80

($4.30)


 

Figure 2. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2014 Plus 2015 KSU Projection

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2014 Plus 2015 Trend Line Projection

Text Box: 1973-2014 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.31 bu + 1.836 bu/year
 
KSU Trend Yield for 2015 = 162.25 bu/acre

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Total Supplies since MY 2004/15 (February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

Figure 6. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 2014/15
Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 6/4/2010 to 
 2/6/2015
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2009/10

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through KSU MY 2015/16 Forecast                                

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Next Year” MY 2015/16)    
(February 10th USDA WASDE Report & KSU Forecast)

Text Box: USDA: “Current Crop” 2014/15
13.4% S/U, $3.65 /bu
Text Box: KSU: “Next Year” 2015/16
9.5% S/U, $4.30 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 10. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2014/15 (February 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: 15 year high in end stocks projected for 
“current crop” 2014/15 
@ 189.6 mmt
 
12 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2014/15 
 @ 19.5% StxUse
Text Box: Lower World Corn Exports in “current” 2014/15 to 115.1 mmt 
 
Down 11.8% in 
“current crop” 2014/15 
from 130.6 mmt
from MY 2013/14 
Text Box: Usage ñ3.7%/yr since 2007/08 
Text Box: Production
ñ3.5%/yr since 2007/08

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through MY 2014/15)                    
(February 10, 2015 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: Current crop 2014/15     February 2015

Corn Production: January 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production:               February Less January 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         February of               January 2015

February Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14          

January Corn Production: Old Crop 2013/14

February Less January Corn  Production             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

988.08

991.58

(3.50)

99.6%

987.69

989.28

(1.59)

0.39

100.0%

868.00

120.08

113.8%

United States

361.09

365.97

(4.88)

98.7%

351.27

353.72

(2.45)

9.82

102.8%

273.19

87.90

132.2%

Total Foreign

626.99

625.62

1.37

100.2%

636.41

635.57

0.84

(9.42)

98.5%

594.80

32.19

105.4%

Major Exporters

110.50

110.50

0.00

100.0%

119.05

119.05

0.00

(8.55)

92.8%

120.87

(10.37)

91.4%

Argentina

22.00

22.00

0.00

100.0%

25.00

25.00

0.00

(3.00)

88.0%

27.00

(5.00)

81.5%

Brazil

75.00

75.00

0.00

100.0%

79.30

79.30

0.00

(4.30)

94.6%

81.50

(6.50)

92.0%

South Africa

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

14.75

14.75

0.00

(1.25)

91.5%

12.37

1.13

109.1%

Major Importers

130.61

130.24

0.37

100.3%

120.09

120.01

0.08

10.52

108.8%

111.65

18.96

117.0%

Egypt

5.75

5.75

0.00

100.0%

5.80

5.80

0.00

(0.05)

99.1%

5.80

(0.05)

99.1%

European Union 

73.69

73.59

0.10

100.1%

64.26

64.19

0.07

9.43

114.7%

58.90

14.79

125.1%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

22.96

22.96

0.00

0.04

100.2%

21.59

1.41

106.5%

Southeast Asia

27.68

27.68

0.00

100.0%

26.89

26.89

0.00

0.79

102.9%

25.22

2.46

109.8%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

14.19

14.19

0.00

(2.69)

81.0%

13.06

(1.56)

88.1%

China

215.50

215.50

0.00

100.0%

218.49

218.49

0.00

(2.99)

98.6%

205.61

9.89

104.8%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

42.66

42.66

0.00

100.0%

46.90

46.90

0.00

(4.24)

91.0%

32.31

10.35

132.0%

Ukraine

27.00

27.00

0.00

100.0%

30.90

30.90

0.00

(3.90)

87.4%

20.92

6.08

129.1%


Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: Current crop 2014/15     February 2015

Corn Exports: January 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:               February Less January 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         February of January 2015

February Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14          

January Corn Exports: Old Crop 2013/14

February Less January Corn  Exports for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Exports             Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

112.34

112.34

0.00

100.0%

130.64

130.14

0.50

(18.30)

86.0%

95.16

17.18

118.1%

United States

44.45

44.45

0.00

100.0%

48.70

48.70

0.00

(4.25)

91.3%

18.55

25.90

239.6%

Total Foreign

67.89

67.89

0.00

100.0%

81.93

81.43

0.50

(14.04)

82.9%

76.61

(8.72)

88.6%

Major Exporters

33.70

33.70

0.00

100.0%

40.50

40.00

0.50

(6.80)

83.2%

45.69

(11.99)

73.8%

Argentina

12.00

12.00

0.00

100.0%

16.00

15.50

0.50

(4.00)

75.0%

18.69

(6.69)

64.2%

Brazil

19.50

19.50

0.00

100.0%

21.50

21.50

0.00

(2.00)

90.7%

24.95

(5.45)

78.2%

South Africa

2.20

2.20

0.00

100.0%

3.00

3.00

0.00

(0.80)

73.3%

2.06

0.14

106.8%

Major Importers

3.65

3.65

0.00

100.0%

4.45

4.45

0.00

(0.80)

82.0%

2.82

0.83

129.4%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union   

2.50

2.50

0.00

100.0%

2.40

2.40

0.00

0.10

104.2%

2.19

0.31

114.2%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.52

(0.02)

96.2%

Southeast Asia

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

1.53

1.53

0.00

(0.89)

41.8%

0.09

0.55

711.1%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

1.85

1.85

0.00

(1.35)

27.0%

1.75

(1.25)

28.6%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.02

0.00

0.08

500.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

19.84

19.84

0.00

100.0%

24.65

24.65

0.00

(4.81)

80.5%

15.00

4.84

132.3%

Ukraine

16.50

16.50

0.00

100.0%

20.00

20.00

0.00

(3.50)

82.5%

12.73

3.77

129.6%

 

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "Current Crop" MY 2014/15, MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: Current crop 2014/15     February 2015

Corn Imports: January 2015 Current crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports: February Less January 2015                    

Current crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         February of January 2015

February Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14          

January Corn Imports: Old Crop 2013/14

February Less January Corn  Imports             for Old Crop 2013/14

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports of Old Crop 2013/14

Corn Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

Current crop 2014/15 Imports Less 2012/13

% Current crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

110.10

109.80

0.30

100.3%

122.15

122.05

0.10

(12.05)

90.1%

99.42

10.68

110.7%

United States

0.64

0.64

0.00

100.0%

0.91

0.91

0.00

(0.27)

70.3%

4.06

(3.42)

15.8%

Total Foreign

109.46

109.16

0.30

100.3%

121.24

121.14

0.10

(11.78)

90.3%

95.36

14.10

114.8%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.83

0.83

0.00

0.01

101.2%

0.97

(0.13)

86.6%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.80

0.80

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

(0.09)

89.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

(0.05)

37.5%

Major Importers

63.80

62.80

1.00

101.6%

75.83

75.72

0.11

(12.03)

84.1%

56.87

6.93

112.2%

Egypt

7.50

7.50

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.50

0.00