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Corn Market Outlook in Mid-June 2016

June 20, 2016


Summary

Since the USDA’s June 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, JULY 2016 CME corn futures have trended sideways – trading in a range of $4.20-$4.39 per bushel and closing at $4.21 ¼ on June 20th.  Although the USDA has forecast a fourth consecutive large U.S. corn crop in the 13.6 to 14.4 billion bushel (bb) range for 2016 along with sizable foreign coarse grain crops in the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year, corn futures have risen above $4.00 in May-June 2016 due to a) significant corn production problems in Brazil (too dry in spots) resulting in higher domestic Brazilian prices and reduced export prospects, b) larger than expected U.S. corn domestic usage in response to low U.S. and World corn prices during January-early June, and c) worries about meterologist’s forecasts of hot weather during late June – August 2016 that could damage 2016 U.S. corn production prospects.  The 2016 USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on June 30th will provide updated projections of 2016 U.S. corn  planted and harvested acres, and may be a source of volatility for U.S. corn markets if results vary markedly from pre-report market expectations.

Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2016 include: 1) declining U.S. farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to-date as both winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on-farm storage space, 2) continued stronger-than-anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve affecting U.S. interest rates, or crucial foreign economic occurrences such as the European Union vote on British membership.  For the early part of “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S. dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop were significant limiting factors for U.S. corn exports – although developing crop problems in Brazil and declines in the value of U.S. dollar since early February 2016 have coincided with improved U.S. corn exports in May-June 2016.  

USDA Supply-Demand & Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16.  While the estimate of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 billion bushels (bb) was unchanged, and total supplies of 15.392 bb for MY 2015/16 were up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports.  Total use is projected to be 13.685 bb – up 100 million bushels (mb) due to a 100 mb increase in projected exports – up to 1.825 bb.  Ethanol use (5.250 bb), non-ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use (1.360 bb), and feed and residual use (5.250 bb) were all unchanged.  Ending stocks are forecast to be down 95 mb to 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.731 bb (12.59% S/U) in MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14.  U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.60-$3.80 /bu. ($3.70 midpoint) versus $3.70 in MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13. 

USDA Supply-Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn plantings would equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015.  Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately 85.893 ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015.  With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.   With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.178 bb (record high), total use of 14.170 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of 2.008 bb (14.17% S/U) – up from 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and the highest since 2.114 bb (19.83% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50 /bu) – being down from the $3.70 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.

KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU-Scenarios for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 million acre (ma) downward adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report.  A) KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.902 bb production, 15.745 bb total supplies, 13.762 bb total use, 1.983 bb ending stocks, 14.41% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;  B) KSU “Lower Acres – Moderate Drought” Scenario (25% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.352 bb production, 15.200 bb total supplies, 13.622 bb total use, 1.578 bb ending stocks, 11.58% S/U, & $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price;  and C) KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (20% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.676 bb production, 14.529 bb total supplies, 13.257 bb total use, 1.270 bb ending stocks, 9.58% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. corn price “new crop” MY 2016/17.

World Corn Supply-Demand: World corn production of 1,011.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 966.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down marginally from 1,013.5 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,189.2 mmt in MY 2014/15.  World corn exports of 133.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt (20.25% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are down from 206.45 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the record high of 208.4 mmt (21.25% S/U) in MY 2014/15.   


I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. June 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports

On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply-demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.  The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016, with “new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017. 

Prior to the April 12th, May 10th, and June 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.  Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the base estimate for the USDA’s 2016 U.S. corn planted acreage forecast in the June 10th WASDE report.

However, more current farmer survey-based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S. corn and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage report.  The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000 U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical planted-to-harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections. 

I-B. CME JULY & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends

JULY 2016 CME Corn Futures

Since lows of $3.51 ¼ on April 1st, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices have trended first higher, then lower, and higher again.  On March 31st when the USDA released it’s Prospective Plantings report, CME JULY 2016 corn dropped $0.15 ¾ per bushel down as low as $3.51 ½ before closing at $3.55 ¾ that same day.  The next day – April 1st - after trading as low as $3.51 ¼ - prices closed up to $3.57 ¾.  Since then prices have trended up to as high as $4.07 ¼ on April 21st, down to a low of $3.68 on May 10th (the day when the May WASDE report was released) and then up to a higher high of $4.39 ¼ on June 8th.  Since then, JULY 2016 wheat has traded witin a range of $4.20 /bu on June 10th and $4.20 ½ on both June 16th and 20th to highs of $4.39 on June 15th and $4.38 ¼ on June 17th before closing at $4.21 ¼ on Monday, June 20th.  On June 10th, the day on which the WASDE report was released, CME JULY 2016 corn futures opened at $4.26 ½, traded in a range of $4.20 to $4.37, and closed $0.03 ½ lower at $4.23 / bu (Figure 1).  

DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures

Since lows of $3.64 on April 1st, DECEMBER 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices have also trended first higher, then lower, and higher again – just as for the JULY 2016 corn futures contract.  On March 31st CME DEC 2016 corn dropped $0.15 ¼ per bushel – down as low as $3.64 ¾ before closing at $3.68 ¾ that same day.  The next day – April 1st – after trading as low as $3.64 - prices closed up to $3.69 ¾.  Since then prices trended up to a high of $4.09 on April 21st, then back down to a low of $3.75 ¼ on May 10th, and then up again to a high of $4.49 on June 17th before closing at $4.33 ¾ on Monday, June 20, 2016.  On June 10th – the day of the June WASDE report – CME DEC 2016 corn futures opened at $4.33, traded in a range of $4.26 ¾ to $4.42 ¾, closing $0.02 ¾ lower at $4.30 ¾ (Figure 1).   

Figure 1. JULY & DECEMBER 2016 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts

 

 

I-C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Price Trends

Season Average Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16

Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas corn over the last 15 years indicate definite seasonal price trends.  However, in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements have been inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2a).  Steady-to-declining prices during September 2015-April 2016 differ from the historic pattern of harvest lows in October followed by steadily rising prices through the following May-June.  However, “current” MY 2015/16 U.S. corn prices moved sharply higher in May 2016 from April lows, and are forecast to trade higher yet from June through August 2016 according to USDA futures and basis history-based corn price models.  

Based on market information available through June 10th, the USDA’s futures-based price model (http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts.aspx) projects for “current” MY 2015/16 that the U.S. corn season average price will be $3.79 per bushel –up from the June 10th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.70 but within the forecast range of $3.60-$3.80 /bu.  These seasonal price patterns are calculated as a percent of the USDA’s futures based price model season average price for “current” MY 2015/16 of $3.79 per bushel rather than the June 10th WASDE mid-point price projection of $3.70 for U.S. corn. 

Season Average Prices for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Conversely, in the “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year for U.S. corn, price movements are projected to return closer to normal historic seasonal price patterns (Figure 2b).  In “new crop” MY 2016/17 – beginning September 1, 2016 – U.S. corn prices are forecast to decline from September 2016 into harvest lows in October.  Then following these October harvest lows, corn prices are projected to increase through November-December 2016, but to then more sideways-to-marginally higher through March 2017.  Prices are then forecast to trend higher yet during April-August 2017.  These projected prices for “new crop” MY 2016/17 by the USDA are similar to long term historic price trends in terms of pronounced harvest lows and post-harvest recovery occurring during September-December.  However, they differ in that “new crop” MY 2016/17 prices are projected to be “flatter” during January-March, but then to rise more strongly during April through August.

Figure 2a. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “Current” MY 2015/16 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts.aspx)

 

 

Figure 2b. Kansas Corn Seasonal Price Index – Last 15 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15) plus “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Estimate (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/season-average-price-forecasts.aspx)

 

 The June 10th USDA’s futures-based price model projects for “new crop” MY 2016/17 that the final U.S. corn season average price will be $4.10 per bushel – which is up from the June 10th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.50 and also outside of the top end of the forecast range of $3.20-$3.80 per bushel.  These seasonal price patterns are calculated as a percent of the USDA’s futures based price model season average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17 of $4.10 per bushel rather than the June 10th WASDE report mid-point price projection of $3.50 for U.S. corn. 

I-D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index

Increases in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. trading partner countries began in earnest in August 2014 when the dollar index was valued at 77.2692 on August 15th.  This upward trend continued through January 2016 with the index climbing to a high of 95.8011 on January 20th - up 24.0% from mid-August 2014 (Figure 3).  Since then the index has declined, falling to a low of 87.7060 on May 2, 2016, before trending moderately higher again. On June 10, 2016 the U.S. Dollar index was calculated to be 89.1975 – down 6.9% from the January 20th high of 95.8011 but still up 15.4% from 77.2692 in mid-August 2014. 

The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid-2014 has been a significant negative factor in U.S. corn and other U.S. grain export markets.  A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets).  Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a very important one – working against U.S. corn being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World grain trade.  Declines in U.S. dollar value to date in 2016 have been a positive factor for U.S. corn and other crop exports.

Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM)                     
(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)

 

 

I-E. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand

U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production

Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. corn supply-demand balance sheet for the MY 2010/11 through “new crop” MY 2016/17 period, with three additional possible scenarios for “new crop” MY 2016/17 by Kansas State University.  U.S. corn harvested and planted acreage for the year 2000 – projected 2016 period are shown in Figure 4, with U.S. corn yields for 1973-2016 shown in Figure 5.  U.S. corn total supplies for the 2004/05 through projected 2016/17 marketing years are shown in Figure 6.   Table 1 and Figures 4-6 show the growth in U.S. corn production and total supplies since the drought-impacted short crop year of MY 2012/13, and the current expectation and forecast by the USDA of even larger U.S. corn supplies in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

In the March 31st Prospective Plantings report and the May 10th WASDE report that followed, the USDA projected that there will be higher 2016 U.S. corn planted acres at 93.601 million acres or ‘ma’ – which would be the third highest amount ever – compared to 87.999 ma in 2015, 90.597 ma in 2014, 95.365 ma in 2013 (2nd highest) and 97.291 ma in 2012 (record high) (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn harvested acres will be approximately 85.9 ma (implicitly estimated at 85.893 ma by KSU from USDA production and yield forecasts) – which would also be third highest on record, compared to 80.749 ma in 2015, 83.136 ma in 2014, 87.451 ma in 2013 (record high) and 87.365 ma in 2012 (2nd highest) (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

KSU projections for 2016 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres are lower than those of the USDA, with planted acres forecast to be 92.601 ma (down 1.000 ma vs USDA), and harvested acres at 84.508 ma (down 1.385 ma vs USDA).  This planted acreage reduction is consistent with alternative market analysis (See Informa raises U.S. soy acreage view, lowers corn – trade.” Reuters News, June 13, 2016), following from the idea that a) more favorable prices for new crop soybeans relative to corn, and b) wet planting conditions in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt are likely to have at least marginally lowered U.S. corn plantings. 

Both 1) lower corn plantings, and 2) lower percent harvested-to-planted 2016 corn acreage (91.3% - equal to the 2011-2015 U.S. average, and less than 91.8% projected by the USDA) have led to the KSU projection of U.S. corn harvested acreage of 84.508 ma in 2016 to be less than the USDA’s forecast of 85.893 ma. 

Figure 4. U.S. Corn Planted Acreage for 2000-2016 as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

 

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2010/11 – “New Crop” MY 2016/17 as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE with KSU projections for “New Crop” MY 2016/17

Item

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA

2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Trend Yield 2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Moderate Drought Yield 2016/17

KSU

Lower Acres & Serious Drought Yield 2016/17

% Probability of Occurring (KSU)

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

35%

25%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

88.192

91.936

97.291

95.365

90.597

87.999

93.601

92.601

92.601

92.601

Harvested Area (million acres)

81.446

83.879

87.365

87.451

83.136

80.749

85.893

84.508

84.508

84.508

% Harvested/Planted Area

92.4%

91.2%

89.8%

91.7%

91.8%

91.8%

91.8%

91.3%

91.3%

91.3%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

152.6

146.8

123.1

158.1

171.0

168.4

168.0

164.5

158.0

150.0

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks (million bushels)

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,731

1,708

1,803

1,803

1,803

Production (million bu.)

12,425

12,314

10,755

13,829

14,216

13,601

14,430

13,902

13,352

12,676

Imports (million bu.)

28

29

160

36

32

60

40

40

45

50

Total Supply (million bu.)

14,161

13,471

11,904

14,686

15,479

15,392

16,178

15,745

15,200

14,529

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use (million bu.)

5,019

5,000

4,641

  5,124

5,200

5,250

5,300

5,250

5,225

5,175

Food & Industrial Use (mln bu.)

1,384

1,400

1,372

1,347

1,338

1,336

1,347

1,340

1,325

1,310

Seed Use (million bu.)

23.0

24.5

24.6

22.9

22.3

23.7

22.9

22

22

22

Exports (million bu.)

1,831

1,539

730

1,920

1,864

1,825

1,950

1,850

1,800

1,600

Feed & Residual Use (million bu.)

4,777

4,519

4,315

 5,040

5,323

5,250

5,550

5,300

5,250

5,150

Total Use (million bu.)

13,033

12,482

11,083

13,454

13,748

13,685

14,170

13,762

13,622

13,257

 

 

Ending Stocks (million bu.)

1,128

989

821

1,232

1,731

1,708

2,008

1,983

1,578

1,270

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

8.65%

7.92%

7.41%

9.16%

12.59%

12.48%

14.17%

14.41%

11.58%

9.58%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.46

$3.70

$3.60-$3.80 ($3.70)

$3.20-$3.80 ($3.50)

$3.45

$3.95

$4.45

 


The USDA has forecast 2016 U.S. corn average yields to be 168.0 bu/ac, down from 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 (2nd highest) and the record high of 171.0 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 5).  Figure 5 shows the 1973-2015 U.S. corn yield trend with USDA and KSU U.S. corn yield projections for 2016.  This USDA projection is given a 20% probability of occurring by KSU.  The USDA’s forecast of 2016 U.S. corn yield is based on a weather adjusted trend yield assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather (quoting USDA).

An alternative KSU “Lower Acres - Trend Yield” Scenario projection – given a 35% chance of occurring – is for the 2016 U.S. corn average yield to equal the 1973-2015 trendline projection of 164.5 bu/ac – 3.5 bu/ac less than the USDA’s projection of 168.0 bu/ac.  A second KSU “Lower Acres - Moderate Drought” Scenario projection – given a 25% chance of occurring – is for the 2016 U.S. corn average yield to equal the 158.0 bu/ac.  A yield of 158.0 bu/ac would be near the top end of the 2004-2013 range of 123.1 – 164.4 bu/ac – being equal to the 77.5th percentile of that range.  A third KSU “Lower Acres - Serious Drought” Scenario projection – given a 20% chance of occurring – is for the 2016 U.S. corn average yield to equal the 150.0 bu/ac.  A yield of 150.0 bu/ac would be bottom half percentile-wise of the 2004-2013 range of 123.1 – 164.4 bu/ac – being equal to the 39.5th percentile of that range.

Figure 5. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2016 as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE, and KSU projections for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17

 

 

Based on these assumptions, the USDA projection of 2016 U.S. corn production is 14.430 billion bushels (bb), up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the record high of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  This USDA projection is given a 20% probability of occurring by KSU.

With the lower acreage figures and lower yields, there are three alternative probability-weighted KSU U.S. corn production scenarios for 2016.   For the KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yields” Scenario, at trendline yields of 164.5 bu/ac in 2016, U.S. corn production would equal approximately 13.902 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 35% likelihood of this occurring, compared to a 20% likelihood of the 2016 USDA projection of 14.430 bb happening.  For the KSU “Lower Acres – Moderate Drought” Scenario, if a moderate drought were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with U.S. corn yields declining to 158.0 bu/ac, then 2016 U.S. corn production would equal approximately 13.352 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 25% likelihood of this occurring.  For the KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario, if a serious drought were to occur in the U.S. in 2016, with U.S. corn yields declining to 150.0 bu/ac, then 2016 U.S. corn production would equal approximately 12.676 bb in 2016.  It is assumed that there is a 20% likelihood of this occurring (Table 1).

Figure 6. U.S. Corn Total Supplies: MY 2004/05 through MY 2016/17 as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE

 

 

U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage:  The USDA projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.300 bb in “new crop” MU 2016/17 – a new record high, up from 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (the current record high), and up from 5.200 bb in MY 2014/15.  That said, U.S. corn use for ethanol has remained steadily in the range of 5.000 to 5.250 bb for the MY 2010/11 through MY 2014/15 period, except for a decline to 4.641 bb during the “short crop / high corn price” 2012/13 marketing year (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 8). 

Figure 8 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2015/16 has ranged from 5.060-5.553 bb on a weekly basis up through the week ending June 10, 2016.  The largest amounts of U.S. ethanol production and subsequent corn use to date in the “current” MY 2015/16 marketing year have occurred during the weeks ending November 20th (5.526 bb marketing year corn use rate), December 11th, 2015 (5.482 bb), January 8th (5.499 bb), March 11th (5.477 bb), March 18th (5.455 bb), June 3rd (5.515 bb), and June 10th, 2016 (5.553 bb).  It should be noted that for the week ending June 10th U.S. ethanol production was using U.S. corn at the highest rate of the marketing year – equivalent to 5.553 bb for the marketing year.

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 through MY 2016/17 as of June 10 USDA WASDE

 

 

Figure 8. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use

 

 

To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, corn usage for ethanol production has been on pace to reach approximately 5.245 to 5.313 bb – down 5 mb to 63 mb greater than the USDA’s June 10, 2016 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb in corn use for ethanol production.  As a result of these calculations, projected Kansas State University use of U.S. corn for ethanol production in “new crop” 2016/17 under the KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (i.e., full production of 13.902 bb) is 5.250 bb – down 50 mb from the USDA June 10th WASDE forecast of 5.300 bb for “next crop” MY 2016/17 (Table 1).             

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  The USDA estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 9 – which shows the estimated amount of a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS corn equivalent exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

DDGS Feed Use: This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  According to these KSU estimates, since MY 2010/11 an average of approximately 1.051 bbeqwt (billion bushels of equivalent bushel-weights of U.S. corn) with a range of 0.992-1.130 bbeqwt of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year. 

On an annual marketing year basis, these amounts of DDGS equivalent corn bushels fed weight-wise equaled 1.108 bbeqwt in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bbeqwt in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bbeqwt in MY 2012/13, 0.992 bbeqwt in MY 2013/14, 1.032 bbeqwt in MY 2014/15, and 1.042 bbeqwt in “current” MY 2015/16, with a projection of 1.052 bbeqwt in “new crop” MY 2016/17. 

DDGS Exports: Since MY 2010/11, DDGS exports in million bushels of corn equivalent weights (mbeqwt) are estimated to have averaged 399 mbeqwt, ranging from 299 to 472 mbeqwt.  On an annual marketing year basis, these amounts DDGS equivalent corn bushels exported weight-wise equaled 326 mbeqwt in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mbeqwt in MY 2011/12, 322 mbeqwt in MY 2012/13, a record high 472 mbeqwt in MY 2013/14, 454 mbeqwt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 458 mbeqwt in “current” MY 2015/16, and a projection of 463 mbeqwt in “new crop” MY 2016/17. 

Figure 9. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE

 

U.S. Corn Exports: The USDA projected U.S. corn exports of 1.950 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (up 50 mb from the May WASDE) are up from 1.825 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 (up 100 mb from May and up 175 mb from the April WASDE), and 1.864 bb in MY 2014/15, but are down from 1.920 bb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 8).  The KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario projection of U.S. corn exports for “new crop” MY 2016/17 is 1.850 bb – down 50 mb from the USDA’s “new crop” MY 2016/17 forecast of 1.900 bb, but 25 mb larger to U.S. corn exports in projected for “current crop” MY 2015/16. 

According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html), as of June 9th, through the first 40 weeks of “current” MY 2015/16 (40 of 52 weeks), 1,238.7 million bushels (mb) of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 67.8% of the USDA’s projection of 1.825 bb for “current” MY 2015/16 with 76.9% (40/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  An additional 554.2 mb of U.S. corn had been pre-sold for future export shipments during the remainder of “current” 2015/16 marketing year – ending August 31, 2016 (the end of “current” MY 2015/16). 

Adding together 1,238.7 mb in past shipments plus 554.2 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.793 bb, or 98.2% of the USDA’s 1.825 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2015/16 in the June 10th USDA WASDE report with 76.9% (40/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   United States’ corn export shipments will need to average 48.9 mb per week for the remaining 12 weeks of the “current” 2015/16 marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.825 bb total corn export projection.  For the weeks ending June 2nd and June 9th, U.S. corn export shipments of 46.6 mb and 59.4 mb occurred, respectively.  With some week-to-week variation, U.S. corn export shipments appear to be ahead of the pace needed to fulfill the USDA’s June 10th export projection by the end of the “current” 2015/16 marketing year.  

Non-Ethanol FSI: The USDA forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.370 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17 is up from 1.360 bb in “current” MY 2015/16, and is projected to be up from 1.360 bb in MY 2014/15 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9).   Table 1 provides a breakout of seed use from non-ethanol food and industrial use of U.S. corn over the MY 2010/11 through “new crop” MY 2016/17 period.  KSU projections of non-ethanol FSI are marginally lower than the USDA’s for “new crop” MY 2016/17 – at 1.362 bb (1.340 bb for non-ethanol food and industrial use and 22 mb for seed use) for the KSU “Lower Acres - Trend Yield” scenario.  However, this KSU projection is approximately equal to the USDA’s “current crop” estimated of 1.360 bb (1.347 bb in non-ethanol FI use plus 23.7 bb seed use).   

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.550 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17 would be the largest amount since MY 2007/08, and up 300 mb from 5.250 bb in “current” MY 2015/16, and also up from 5.323 bb in MY 2014/15 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9).  These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) reported by the USDA over the same time period as illustrated in the following information.   The KSU projection of feed and residual usage for “next crop” MY 2016/17 of 5.300 bb for KSU “Lower Acres - Trend Yield” Scenario is down 250 mb from the USDA projection of 5.550 bb, but up from 5.250 bb projected feed and residual use in “current” MY 2015/16..    

The USDA June 14th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-06-14-2016.pdf) indicates that over the MY 2014/15 through “new crop” MY 2016/17 time-period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – is estimated to have been 143.7 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2014/15 (94.1% corn), and 146.0 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (91.4% corn), and is forecast to be 149.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (94.6% corn).  Over this same 3-year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) are estimated to have been 92.3 million GCAUs in MY 2014/15, and 93.2 million GCAUs in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and are forecast to be 95.3 million in “new crop” MY 2015/16.

As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit are estimated to have been 1.557 metric tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2014/15, and 1.566 mt/au in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and is projected to be 1.563 mt/au in “new crop” MY 2016/17.  As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 (1.363 mt/au) to the successive record “large crop” years of MY 2013/14 (1.490 mt/au), MY 2014/15 (1.557 mt/au), “current” MY 2015/16 (1.557 mt/au), and now what is anticipated by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2016/17 (1.562 mt/au) for corn, other feedgrains, and wheat, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. energy feeds has moved to higher levels – contributing to downward pressure on the prices of U.S. corn and other grains.

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2016/17 is projected by the USDA to be a record high 14.170 bb (up 50 mb from the May WASDE), up from the near record 13.685 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 (up 100 mb from May and up 164 mb from the April WASDE), the current record high of 13.748 bb in MY 2014/15, and from 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 9).   Total corn use in the U.S. has varied widely in recent marketing years – following from changes in available U.S. corn supplies.  This USDA scenario is estimated to have a 20% likelihood according to KSU estimates.

Corn use in the U.S. has changed from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.008 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.041 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.033 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.482 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the one-time record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, the present record high amount of 13.748 bb in MY 2014/15, the 2nd highest projected amount of 13.685 bb in “current” MY 2015/16, and the forecast of a record high 14.170 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17.  

The KSU projection of total usage for “new crop” MY 2016/17 in the KSU “Larger Acres - Trend Yield” Scenario (i.e., large 2016 U.S. corn crop of 13.902 bb – 350% probability) is 13.762 bb – down 408 mb or 2.9% from the USDA’s “new crop” MY 2016/17 forecast of 14.170 bb.  Projected total usage for “new crop” MY 2016/17 in the KSU “Larger Acres – Moderate Drought” Scenario (i.e., 2016 U.S. corn crop of 13.352 bb – 25% probability) is 13.622 bb.  Finally, projected total usage for “next crop” MY 2016/17 in the KSU “Larger Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (i.e., 2016 U.S. corn crop of 12.676 bb – 20% probability) is 13.257 bb. 

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices

Ending Stocks: The USDA forecast U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be 2.008 bb (down 145 mb from the May WASDE), up from 1.708 bb in “current” MY 2015/16 (down 95 from May and down 154 mb from the April WASDE) (Table 1 & Figures 7 and 9).  This USDA scenario for ending stocks of 2.008 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17 is given a 20% probability of occurring by KSU.

United States’ corn ending stocks were 2.114 bb in MY 2004/05, followed by 1.967 bb in MY 2005/06, 1.304 bb in MY 2006/07, 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, 1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and 1.731 bb in MY 2014/15, 1.708 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and now are forecast to be 2.008 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17. 

The KSU projection of U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2016/17 under KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” scenario (i.e., 2016 U.S. corn crop = 13.902 bb, 35% probability) is 1.983 bb – down 25 mb from the USDA’s MY 2016/17 forecast of 2.008 bb.  For the KSU “Lower Acres - Moderate Drought” Scenario (i.e., 2016 U.S. corn crop = 13.352 bb, 25% probability), U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.578 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17.  For the KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (i.e., 2016 U.S. corn crop = 12.676 bb, 20% probability), U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.270 bb in “new crop” MY 2016/17. 

Percent Ending Stocks-to-Use: The USDA projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 14.17% for “new crop” MY 2016/17 (down from 15.24% in the May WASDE), up from 12.48% in “current crop” MY 2015/16 (down from 13.27% in the May WASDE) (Table 1 and Figures 10 and 11).  This USDA forecast for percent ending stocks-to-use of 14.17% in “new crop” MY 2016/17 is given a 20% probability of occurring by KSU.

On a year-by-year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use trended downward from 12.75% in MY 2007/08 and 13.94% in MY 2008/09, to 13.10% in MY 2009/10, 8.65% in MY 2010/11, 7.92% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.41% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  Since then U.S. corn percent ending stocks-to-use increased for the first time in six (6) years up to 9.16% in MY 2013/14, then moved generally higher to 12.59% in MY 2014/15, 12.48% in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and now to a projection of 14.17% in “new crop” MY 2016/17. 

The KSU projection of U.S. corn percent ending stocks-to-use for “new crop” MY 2016/17 is 14.41% in the KSU “Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (13.902 bb crop, 35% probability) – up from the USDA’s forecast of 14.17%.  For the KSU “Lower Acres – Moderate Drought” Scenario (13.352 bb crop, 25% probability), U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 11.58% in “new crop” MY 2016/17.  For the KSU “Lower Acres – Severe Drought” Scenario (12.676 bb crop, 20% probability), U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 9.58% in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

U.S. Corn Prices: The USDA has forecast U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2016/17 to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 per bushel (midpoint - $3.50) – up from the range of $3.05-$3.65 (midpoint = $3.35 /bu) in the MAY WASDE.  This USDA forecast for “new crop” MY 2016/17 of $3.20-$3.80 ($3.50 /bu) is comparable to the range of $3.60-$3.80 /bu (midpoint = $3.70) in “current” MY 2015/16, and to $3.70 in MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 10 and 11). 

Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  Since then prices have declined to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, $3.70 in MY 2014/15, the range of $3.60-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.70) in “current” MY 2015/16, and are now projected to be in the range of $3.20-$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50) in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

Figure 10. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 – “New Crop” MY 2016/17, as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE with KSU “New Crop” MY 2016/17 Scenarios                             

 

 

 

The KSU projection of U.S. corn season average prices for “new crop” MY 2016/17 is $3.45 per bushel in the KSU “Lower Acre – Trend Yield” Scenario (13.902 bb crop, 35% probability) – down from the USDA’s midpoint forecast of $3.50 /bu.  For the KSU “Lower Acre – Moderate Drought” Scenario (13.352 bb crop, 25% probability), the U.S. corn season average price is projected to be $3.95 in “new crop” MY 2016/17.  For the KSU “Lower Acre – Severe Drought” Scenario (12.676 bb crop, 20% probability), the U.S. corn season average price is projected to be $4.45 in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

Figure 11. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2016/17; as of the June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE Report

 

 

 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

Based on USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates from PSD Online – standing for “Production, Supply, and Distribution Online” as of June 16, 2016 (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx), and the June 10th USDA WASDE report, the USDA is forecasting that “new crop” 2016/17 marketing year World corn production will be larger than in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but marginally less than in MY 2014/15 (Figure 12).  However, due to an accumulation of World corn carryover stocks, projected World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be up 3.7% from 1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,188.7 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

Consequently, World corn total use is projected to be 1,013.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 4.6% from 968.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 3.3% from 980.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.   World corn ending stocks are declining at least marginally, being forecast by the USDA to be 205.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down 0.6% from 205.45 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down 1.6% from 208.4 mmt in MY 2014/15.  

II-A. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Projected World corn production of 1,011.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17 would be the 2nd highest on record, and up 4.7% from 966.4 mmt for “current crop” MY 2015/16, down only 0.2% from the record high of 1,013.5 mmt in MY 2014/15, up from 991.4 mmt in 2013/14 (3rd highest on record), and above the range of 795.7 to 889.8 mmt during the MY 2007/08 – MY 2012/13 time period (Table 2 & Figure 12).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 645.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 3.9% from 620.9 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16, and down 1.1% from 652.4 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

Figure 12. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2016/17 as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE

 

 

II-B. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be 133.1 mmt, up 10.4% from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down 6.0% from 141.7 mmt in MY 2013/14 (Table 3 and Figure 12).   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 83.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 12.6% from 74.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, but down 11.4% from 94.3 mmt in MY 2013/14. 

II-C. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are projected to be 127.15 mmt, down 4.6% from 133.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 1.8% from 124.9 mmt in MY 2014/15 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 126.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down 4.3% from 131.75 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 1.6% from 124.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

II-D. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 is projected to be 622.8 mmt, up 3.5% from 601.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 6.3% from 585.7 mmt in MY 2014/15 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 481.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 2.9% from 468.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up 7.0% from 450.5 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

II-E. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn Food, Seed and Industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 is projected to be 390.3 mmt, up 6.4% from 366.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down 1.2% from 395.1 mmt in MY 2014/15 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 220.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 11.1% from 198.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but down 3.3% from 228.4 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

II-F. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World corn total use of 1,013.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17 would be a record high, and is up 4.6% from 968.3 mmt for “current crop” MY 2015/16; up 3.3% from 980.8 mmt in MY 2014/15 (2nd highest); and up from the range of 776.4-869.3 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2013/14 period (Table 7 and Figure 12).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 702.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 5.3% from 667.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but up 3.5% from 678.9 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

II-G. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt for “new crop” MY 2016/17 represents a marginal decline of 0.6% from 206.45 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and a decline of 1.6% from MY 2014/15, but a sizable increase from 175.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and an increase from the range of 123.6 – 143.5 mmt over the MY 2007/08 – MY 2012/13 period (Table 8 and Figure 12).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks are projected to be 154.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down 5.5% from 163.1 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down 6.3% from 164.4 mmt in MY 2014/15. 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

World corn % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 20.25% in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 21.3% in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and 21.25% in MY 2014/15, while being greater than the range of 14.5% - 18.6% during the MY 2007/08 – MY 2013/14 period (Table 9 and Figure 13).   Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 19.6% in “new crop” MY 2016/17, down from 22.0% in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from 21.3% in MY 2014/15. 

Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.0% S/U), and in the recent marketing years of MY 2010/11 (14.5% S/U), MY 2011/12 (14.8% S/U), and MY 2012/13 (15.3% S/U).  Restated, recent World corn percent ending stocks-to-use of 14.5% in MY 2010/11 and 14.8% in MY 2011/12 are at the lowest levels recorded since 11.8% in MY 1973/74.  

II-I. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 11), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has generally existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “outward jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 13). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices.  Conversely, smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 11 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 13 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 4.98% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 14.46% in MY 2010/11 and 14.78% in MY 2011/12.   The USDA’s most recent projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 20.25% in “new crop” MY 2016/17.

Figure 13. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use: MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2016/17,             
as of June 10, 2016 USDA WASDE Report.

 

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for “New Crop” MY 2016/17, “Current” MY 2015/16, and MY 2014/15

World Corn Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

June Corn Production: "New Crop" 2016/17

Corn Production: May 2016 "New Crop" 2016/17 (1 month ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Production: June Less May 2016                   

"New Crop" 2016/17 Production: % June of May 2016

June Corn Production: "Current Crop" 2015/16

May Corn Production: "Current Crop" 2015/16 (1 year ago)

June Less May Corn Production for "Current Crop" 2015/16

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less "Current Crop" 2015/16 Production

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of "Current Crop" 2015/16 Production

Corn Production:  2014/15 (2 years ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less 2014/15 Production

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of 2014/15 Production

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

1,011.77

1,011.07

0.70

100.1%

966.37

968.86

(2.49)

45.40

104.7%

1,013.46

(1.69)

99.8%

United States

366.54

366.54

0.00

100.0%

345.49

345.49

0.00

21.05

106.1%

361.09

5.45

101.5%

Total Foreign

645.23

644.53

0.70

100.1%

620.88

623.37

(2.49)

24.35

103.9%

652.36

(7.13)

98.9%

Major Exporters

129.00

129.00

0.00

100.0%

111.00

114.50

(3.50)

18.00

116.2%

124.33

4.67

103.8%

Argentina

34.00

34.00

0.00

100.0%

27.00

27.00

0.00

7.00

125.9%

28.70

5.30

118.5%

Brazil

82.00

82.00

0.00

100.0%

77.50

81.00

(3.50)

4.50

105.8%

85.00

(3.00)

96.5%

South Africa

13.00

13.00

0.00

100.0%

6.50

6.50

0.00

6.50

200.0%

10.63

2.37

122.3%

Major Importers

123.44

122.74

0.70

100.6%

116.77

115.77

1.00

6.67

105.7%

134.18

(10.74)

92.0%

Egypt

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

6.00

6.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

5.96

0.04

100.7%

European Union 

64.28

64.28

0.00

100.0%

57.98

57.98

0.00

6.30

110.9%

75.78

(11.50)

84.8%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

24.20

23.50

0.70

103.0%

25.00

24.00

1.00

(0.80)

96.8%

25.48

(1.28)

95.0%

Southeast Asia

28.81

28.81

0.00

100.0%

27.64

27.64

0.00

1.17

104.2%

26.81

2.00

107.5%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.08

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

Canada

13.75

13.75

0.00

100.0%

13.60

13.60

0.00

0.15

101.1%

11.49

2.26

119.7%

China

218.00

218.00

0.00

100.0%

224.58

224.58

0.00

(6.58)

97.1%

215.65

2.35

101.1%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

44.16

44.16

0.00

100.0%

40.15

40.15

0.00

4.01

110.0%

43.80

0.36

100.8%

Ukraine

26.00

26.00

0.00

100.0%

23.33

23.33

0.00

2.67

111.4%

28.45

(2.45)

91.4%

FSU-12 Less Ukraine

18.16

18.16

0.00

100.0%

16.82

16.82

0.00

1.34

108.0%

15.35

2.81

118.3%

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for “New Crop” MY 2016/17, “Current” MY 2015/16, and MY 2014/15

World Corn Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

June Corn Exports: "New Crop" 2016/17

Corn Exports: May 2016 "New Crop" 2016/17 (1 month ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Exports: June Less May 2016                   

"New Crop" 2016/17 Exports: % June of May 2016

June Corn Exports: "Current Crop" 2015/16

May Corn Exports: "Current Crop" 2015/16 (1 year ago)

June Less May Corn Exports for "Current Crop" 2015/16

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less "Current Crop" 2015/16 Exports

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of "Current Crop" 2015/16 Exports

Corn Exports:  2014/15 (2 years ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less 2014/15 Exports

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of 2014/15 Exports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

133.13

132.89

0.24

100.2%

120.62

121.33

(0.71)

12.51

110.4%

141.67

(8.54)

94.0%

United States

49.53

48.26

1.27

102.6%

46.36

43.82

2.54

3.17

106.8%

47.36

2.17

104.6%

Total Foreign

83.60

84.63

(1.03)

98.8%

74.27

77.52

(3.25)

9.33

112.6%

94.31

(10.71)

88.6%

Major Exporters

47.50

48.50

(1.00)

97.9%

41.20

44.70

(3.50)

6.30

115.3%

54.05

(6.55)

87.9%

Argentina

23.00

23.00

0.00

100.0%

18.00

18.00

0.00

5.00

127.8%

18.90

4.10

121.7%

Brazil

23.00

24.00

(1.00)

95.8%

22.50

26.00

(3.50)

0.50

102.2%

34.46

(11.46)

66.7%

South Africa

1.50

1.50

0.00

100.0%

0.70

0.70

0.00

0.80

214.3%

0.69

0.81

217.4%

Major Importers

4.49

4.49

0.00

100.0%

3.29

3.09

0.20

1.20

136.5%

5.88

(1.39)

76.4%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

European Union  

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

1.60

1.40

0.20

1.40

187.5%

4.03

(1.03)

74.4%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

1.00

1.00

0.00

(0.20)

80.0%

0.78

0.02

102.6%

Southeast Asia

0.68

0.68

0.00

100.0%

0.68

0.68

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.07

(0.39)

63.6%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

1.20

1.20

0.00

100.0%

1.00

1.00

0.00

0.20

120.0%

0.42

0.78

285.7%

China

0.02

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.02

0.02

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

200.0%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

21.97

21.97

0.00

100.0%

20.62

20.42

0.20

1.35

106.5%

23.18

(1.21)

94.8%

Ukraine

17.00

17.00

0.00

100.0%

16.00

16.00

0.00

1.00

106.3%

19.66

(2.66)

86.5%

FSU-12 Less Ukraine

4.97

4.97

0.00

100.0%

4.62

4.42

0.20

0.35

107.6%

3.52

1.45

141.2%

Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for “New Crop” MY 2016/17, “Current” MY 2015/16, and MY 2014/15

World Corn Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

June Corn Imports: "New Crop" 2016/17

Corn Imports: May 2016 "New Crop" 2016/17 (1 month ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Imports: June Less May 2016                   

"New Crop" 2016/17 Imports: % June of May 2016

June Corn Imports: "Current Crop" 2015/16

May Corn Imports: "Current Crop" 2015/16 (1 year ago)

June Less May Corn Imports for "Current Crop" 2015/16

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less "Current Crop" 2015/16 Imports

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of "Current Crop" 2015/16 Imports

Corn Imports:  2014/15 (2 years ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less 2014/15 Imports

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of 2014/15 Imports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

127.15

128.70

(1.55)

98.8%

133.29

132.66

0.63

(6.14)

95.4%

124.92

2.23

101.8%

United States

1.02

1.02

0.00

100.0%

1.52

1.40

0.12

(0.50)

67.1%

0.80

0.22

127.5%

Total Foreign

126.14

127.69

(1.55)

98.8%

131.75

131.26

0.49

(5.61)

95.7%

124.12

2.02

101.6%

Major Exporters

1.11

1.11

0.00

100.0%

4.61

4.61

0.00

(3.50)

24.1%

2.31

(1.20)

48.1%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Brazil

0.60

0.60

0.00

100.0%

1.10

1.10

0.00

(0.50)

54.5%

0.33

0.27

181.8%

South Africa

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

3.50

3.50

0.00

(3.00)

14.3%

1.97

(1.47)

25.4%

Major Importers

76.95

78.45

(1.50)

98.1%

79.70

79.45

0.25

(2.75)

96.5%

69.18

7.77

111.2%

Egypt

8.75

8.75

0.00

100.0%

8.50

8.25

0.25

0.25

102.9%

7.84

0.91

111.6%

European Union  

12.00

13.00

(1.00)

92.3%

14.50

15.00

(0.50)

(2.50)

82.8%

8.65

3.35

138.7%

Japan

14.50

14.50

0.00

100.0%

14.70

14.70

0.00

(0.20)

98.6%

14.66

(0.16)

98.9%

Mexico

13.00

13.50

(0.50)

96.3%

12.50

12.00

0.50

0.50

104.0%

11.27

1.73

115.4%

Southeast Asia

14.10

14.10

0.00

100.0%

15.30

15.30

0.00

(1.20)

92.2%

12.78

1.32

110.3%

South Korea

10.50

10.50

0.00

100.0%

10.00

10.00

0.00

0.50

105.0%

10.17

0.33

103.2%

Canada

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

1.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

1.56

(0.56)

64.1%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

2.00

2.00

0.00

(1.00)

50.0%

5.52

(4.52)

18.1%

Former Soviet Union  - 12 Countries

0.42

0.42

0.00

100.0%

0.44

0.44

0.00

(0.02)

95.5%

0.51

(0.09)

82.4%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.05

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.02

166.7%

FSU-12 Less Ukraine

0.37

0.37

0.00

100.0%

0.39

0.39

0.00

(0.02)

94.9%

0.48

(0.11)

77.1%

Table 5. World Corn Domestic Feed Use for “New Crop” MY 2016/17, “Current” MY 2015/16, and MY 2014/15

World Corn Feed Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

June Corn Feed Use: "New Crop" 2016/17

Corn Feed Use: May 2016 "New Crop" 2016/17 (1 month ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Feed Use: June Less May 2016                   

"New Crop" 2016/17 Feed Use: % June of May 2016

June Corn Feed Use: "Current Crop" 2015/16

May Corn Feed Use: "Current Crop" 2015/16 (1 year ago)

June Less May Corn Feed Use for "Current Crop" 2015/16

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less "Current Crop" 2015/16 Feed Use

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of "Current Crop" 2015/16 Feed Use

Corn Feed Use:  2014/15 (2 years ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less 2014/15 Feed Use

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of 2014/15 Feed Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

622.83

623.43

(0.60)

99.9%

601.62

600.82

0.80

21.21

103.5%

585.71

37.12

106.3%

United States

140.98

140.98

0.00

100.0%

133.36

133.36

0.00

7.62

105.7%

135.22

5.76

104.3%

Total Foreign

481.86

482.46

(0.60)

99.9%

468.27

467.47

0.80

13.59

102.9%

450.49

31.37

107.0%

Major Exporters

62.20

62.20

0.00

100.0%

60.50

60.50

0.00

1.70

102.8%

60.10

2.10

103.5%

Argentina

6.60

6.60

0.00

100.0%

6.00

6.00

0.00

0.60

110.0%

6.00

0.60

110.0%

Brazil

50.00

50.00

0.00

100.0%

49.00

49.00

0.00

1.00

102.0%

48.00

2.00

104.2%

South Africa

5.60

5.60

0.00

100.0%

5.50

5.50

0.00

0.10

101.8%

6.10

(0.50)

91.8%

Major Importers

146.60

147.55

(0.95)

99.4%

144.15

143.60

0.55

2.45

101.7%

142.14

4.46

103.1%

Egypt

12.65

12.65

0.00

100.0%

12.35

12.10

0.25

0.30

102.4%

11.50

1.15

110.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

56.50

57.50

(1.00)

98.3%

56.00

56.00

0.00

0.50

100.9%

59.50

(3.00)

95.0%

Japan

10.80

10.80

0.00

100.0%

11.00

11.00

0.00

(0.20)

98.2%

11.00

(0.20)

98.2%

Mexico

19.20

19.15

0.05

100.3%

19.00

18.70

0.30

0.20

101.1%

17.70

1.50

108.5%

Southeast Asia

35.25

35.25

0.00

100.0%

34.00

34.00

0.00

1.25

103.7%

30.60

4.65

115.2%

South Korea

8.25

8.25

0.00

100.0%

7.85

7.85

0.00

0.40

105.1%

8.04

0.21

102.6%

Canada

8.10

8.10

0.00

100.0%

8.00

8.00

0.00

0.10

101.3%

7.43

0.67

109.0%

China

160.00

160.00

0.00

100.0%

153.50

153.50

0.00

6.50

104.2%

140.00

20.00

114.3%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

19.49

19.49

0.00

100.0%

18.46

18.46

0.00

1.03

105.6%

18.76

0.73

103.9%

Ukraine

7.30

7.30

0.00

100.0%

7.00

7.00

0.00

0.30

104.3%

8.00

(0.70)

91.3%

FSU-12 less Ukraine

12.19

12.19

0.00

100.0%

11.46

11.46

0.00

0.73

106.4%

10.76

1.43

113.3%

Table 6. World Corn Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use for “New Crop” MY 2016/17, “Current” MY 2015/16, and MY 2014/15

World Corn FSI Use                                                 by Major Country / Region

June Corn FSI Use: "New Crop" 2016/17

Corn FSI Use: May 2016 "New Crop" 2016/17 (1 month ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 FSI Use: June Less May 2016                   

"New Crop" 2016/17 FSI Use: % June of May 2016

June Corn FSI Use: "Current Crop" 2015/16

May Corn FSI Use: "Current Crop" 2015/16 (1 year ago)

June Less May Corn FSI Use for "Current Crop" 2015/16

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less "Current Crop" 2015/16 FSI Use

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of "Current Crop" 2015/16 FSI Use

Corn FSI Use:  2014/15 (2 years ago)

"New Crop" 2016/17 Less 2014/15 FSI Use

% "New Crop" 2016/17 of 2014/15 FSI Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

390.26

388.47

1.79

100.5%

366.71

368.04

(1.33)

23.55

106.4%

395.08

(4.82)

98.8%

United States

169.42

169.42

0.00

100.0%

167.89

167.89

0.00

1.53

100.9%

166.63

2.79

101.7%

Total Foreign

220.83

219.03

1.80

100.8%

198.80

200.14

(1.34)

22.03

111.1%

228.44

(7.61)

96.7%

Major Exporters

18.50

18.50

0.00

100.0%

17.80

17.80

0.00

0.70

103.9%

17.90

0.60

103.4%

Argentina

3.80

3.80

0.00

100.0%

3.30

3.30

0.00

0.50

115.2%

3.30

0.50

115.2%

Brazil

9.00

9.00

0.00

100.0%

9.00

9.00

0.00

0.00

100.0%

9.00

0.00

100.0%

South Africa

5.70

5.70

0.00

100.0%

5.50

5.50

0.00

0.20

103.6%

5.60

0.10

101.8%

Major Importers

51.23