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Grain Market Outlook

Corn Market Outlook in Mid-March 2014

March 19, 2014


Summary

When the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 10, 2014, U.S. corn market prices initially responded negatively before moving higher in the succeeding week.  The USDA raised its projections of “current” 2013/14 marketing year exports for U.S. corn, and subsequently lowered projected U.S. corn ending stocks – providing a marginal, positive impetus for U.S. corn prices.  Prospects for markedly higher U.S. corn prices through spring-summer 2014 are still somewhat limited by the presence of larger U.S. and World corn supplies in grower’s ownership that remain to be moved on to the market.  Until U.S. corn growers begin selling their 2013 crops in storage “en mass”, or some combination of crop weather-development factors negatively affect the 2014 U.S. corn crop and/or World geopolitical events bring volatility to grain markets, there still seems to be limits as to how high U.S. cash corn prices can move.

U.S. Corn Supply-Demand for “Current” 2013/14: The USDA left unchanged its forecast 2013 U.S. corn production at a record high 13.925 billion bushels (bb) – up from 10.780 bb in 2012.  The forecast of “current” MY 2013/14 total supplies of 14.781 bb was also unchanged, while forecasts exports of 1.625 bb and total use of 13.325 bb were both raised 25 mb due to strong export shipments and forward sales to date in the current marketing year. As a result, “current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks were projected to be 1.456 bb – down 25 mb from February, and down 336 mb from December 2013, but still up from 821 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.  Projected ending stocks-to-use of 10.9% for “current” MY 2013/14 has continued to trend lower on a monthly basis since a projection of 14.7% in the November 2013 WASDE, but is still up sharply from 7.4% for “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and 7.9% in MY 2011/12.  U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are forecast to be in the range of $4.25-$4.75 / bu, down from a record high $6.89 /bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. 

USDA U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: Based on projections from the Feb. 21 USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference, with small adjustments made in the beginning stocks estimate, forecast 2014 U.S. corn production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are: 92.0 ma planted, 84.6 ma harvested, 165.3 bu/ac yields, a 13.985 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.380 bb total use, 2.086 bb ending stocks, 15.6% S/U, & $3.90 average price per bu.

KSU U.S. Corn Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn production and “next crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand and price scenarios are:  a) KSU “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 90.0 ma planted, 81.9 ma harvested, 154.4 bu/ac yields, a 12.645 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 12.775 bb total use, 1.366 bb ending stocks, 10.7% S/U, & $4.30-$5.30 ($4.80 average) /bu;  b) KSU “Likely Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 92.5 ma planted, 84.2 ma harvested, 159.4 bu/ac yields, a 13.421 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.275 bb total use, 1.632 bb ending stocks, 12.3% S/U, & $3.75-$4.75 ($4.25 average) /bu; and c) KSU “High Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 95.0 ma planted, 86.5 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yields, a 14.221 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 13.650 bb total use, 2.057 bb ending stocks, 15.1% S/U, & $3.40-$4.40 ($3.90 average) /bu. 

World Corn: World corn total supplies of 1,102 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 996 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 1,015 mmt in MY 2011/12.  Projected World corn ending stocks of 158.5 mmt (16.8% S/U) in “current” MY 2013/14 are up from 134.7 mmt (15.6% S/U) in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 132.8 mmt (15.0% S/U) in MY 2011/12. Corn production in major export competitors Brazil and Argentina is projected to be lower in the coming year in favor of increased soybean production.  Conversely, corn production in China and Ukraine are projected to be sharply higher in the coming year – injecting a degree of caution on U.S. corn market prospects for both the remainder of “current” MY 2013/14 and for “next crop” MY 2014/15.

I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook

I-A. March 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees for Wheat, Feedgrains, Rice and Oilseeds released their GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 at the 2014 Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday, February 21st.  This is the first formal USDA projection of U.S. grain supply-demand factors and prices based on current 2014 market information.  The USDA had released 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections on February 13th that included a projection for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with U.S. grain supply-demand and price projections through MY 2023/24.  However, those initial baseline estimates were based on grain market information available in November 2013, and were adjusted by the USDA in its February 21st Agricultural Outlook Conference projections.

On March 10, 2014 the USDA released its monthly March 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing information of importance to U.S. corn market price prospects.   The USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its monthly March Crop Production report which contained no changes in projected production of U.S. corn for 2013 or previous years.  If it follows past history, the USDA will not make further adjustments in its projection for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 until it releases the May 9th WASDE report. 

However, grain market information concerning a) “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn usage, ending stocks, and prices, and b) foreign grain supply-demand prospects, has an impact on prospects for U.S. corn supply-demand and prices during the “next year” 2014/15 marketing year.  In this article the USDA’s U.S. corn supply-demand and price prospects for the coming 2014/15 marketing year were adjusted using ending stocks estimates from the March WASDE report, with marginal adjustments also made in forecast prices reflecting  changes in “next crop” marketing year ending stocks-to-use.   

I-B. Corn Futures Trends Since the March 10th Reports

“Last year’s crop” corn futures market contracts (i.e., May and July 2014 Chicago Board of Trade corn futures ) responded in a volatile but ultimately neutral manner to the information in these March 10th USDA reports.  On the day of the report – Monday, March 10th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2014 corn futures prices opened at $4.86 ½ per bushel, and traded as high as $4.87 ¾ and as low as $4.75 ½ during the session, before settling at $4.78 ¼ – down $0.10 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).   The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid-session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.   Since then MAY 2014 corn futures prices have traded in the range of a low of $4.73 ¼ the next trading day (March 11th), up to a high of $4.93 ¼ on Thursday, March 13th – before closing toward the upper end of this range at $4.86 ¼ on Tuesday, March 18th.

“Next year’s crop” corn futures contract prices also responded in a volatile and generally positive manner to the information from the March 10th reports.  CBOT DEC 2014 corn futures prices opened at $4.82 ¼ on March 10th, and traded as low as $4.74 and as high as $4.84 ¼ during the session, before settling at $4.78 – down $0.06 ¾ for the day (Figure 1).  Since then December 2014 corn futures prices have traded in the range of a low of $4.74 the next trading day (March 11th), to a high of $4.89 ½ on March 13th – before closing near the high end of this range at $4.87 ¾ on Tuesday, March 18th

Figure 1. May 2014 and December 2014 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

Text Box: December 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.87 ¾ on Fri., March 18th
Text Box: MAY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.86 ¼ on Fri., March 18th  
 

 

I-C. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand for the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year

U.S. Corn 2013 Acres, Yield & Production

The USDA again left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 billion bushels (bb), up from a drought-affected short crop of 10.780 bb in 2012.  This USDA projection is based on record high planted acreage of 95.365 million acres (ma), and harvested acreage of 87.668 ma (Table 1 and Figure 2).  The USDA also maintained its projection of an average U.S. corn yield of 158.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac).  The January-March USDA 2014 projection of 158.8 bu/ac in average 2013 U.S. corn yields is down from the USDA’s projection at the February 22, 2013 USDA Outlook Forum of 163.6 bu/ac (Table 1 and Figure 3). 

Projected 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 bb remains a record high, being up 3.145 bb (ñ 29%) from 10.780 bb in 2012, and up 13% from 12.360 bb in 2011 (Table 1).  If further changes are eventually made by the USDA in its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production, they are unlikely to occur until the 2014 Crop Production Summary is released in January 2015 if the USDA follows its usual procedures.

U.S. Corn Total Supplies in “Current” MY 2013/14

The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current” MY 2013/14 are 14.781 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 821 mb, projected 2013 production of 13.925 bb, and projected imports of 35 mb (Table 1).   Total supplies of 14.781 bb in MY 2013/14 would be a record high, comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.932 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.  Beginning stocks of 821 mb are the lowest since 426 mb in MY 1996/97, and substantiate the tightness of U.S. corn supplies during June-August 2013.

U.S. Corn Total Use & Use by Category in “Current” MY 2013/14

Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 13.325 bb – up 25 mb from February, up 175 from January, up 275 mb from the December WASDE, and up 375 mb from November, while being up 19.9% from 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 6).  United States’ total corn use of 13.325 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 would be the highest on record, comparable to 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08 (4th highest), 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd highest), 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd highest), 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. 

U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn UsageProjected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.000 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 4.648 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being equal to 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.  Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.  Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from 4.637-5.262 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 - the beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year – averaging a projection of 4.993 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 over the September 2013 – March 7, 2014 time period.  This projection of 4.993 bb is consistent to USDA’s March 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.000 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.               

U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains:  An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains (DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 6 – which shows estimated a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.

This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys.  By these estimates since MY 2010/11, approximately 1.05-1.13 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel-weights of DDGS are projected either to have been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb DDGS corn-weight equivalents in MY 2011/12, 1.051 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.130 bb projected for “current” MY 2013/14.  Over the same four most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 326 mb. 

U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.625 in “current” MY 2013/14 are up 25 million bushels (mb) from February, up 175 mb from January, and up 122.2% from 731 mb a year ago in MY 2012/13 – the 39 year low since MY 1975/76.   As of March 6st, with 31 of 52 weeks (59.6%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 757.5 mb of U.S. corn had been shipped for export – equal to 46.6% of the USDA’s updated projection for “current” MY 2013/14 of 1.625 bb.  An additional 746.7 mb of U.S. corn had been sold for future export sales in “current” 2013/14 marketing year. 

Adding together 757.5 mb in past shipments plus 746.7 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.504 bb, or 92.6% of the USDA’s 1.625 bb U.S. corn export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the March 10th USDA WASDE report with 59.6% (31/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.   The strong pace of combined shipments and sales motivated the USDA to increase its U.S. corn export projection by 25 mb to 1.625 bb in the March 10th WASDE report.

Non-Ethanol FSI: Forecast non-ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.400 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 compares to 1.396 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12.

Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.300 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 is unchanged from January-February, but up 100 mb from November-December and up 200 mb from August-September WASDE projections.  Feed and residual use of 5.300 bb is up 22.3% from 4.335 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being up 16.3% from 4.557 bb in MY 2011/12.  

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks-to-Use, & Prices in “Current” MY 2013/14

U.S. corn ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 1.456 bb, down 25 mb from February, down 175 mb from January, down 336 mb from December, and down 431 mb from November 2013.  However, the March 2014 projection of 1.456 bb is still up 635 mb (+77%) from 821 mb ending stocks in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 & Figure 4).  “Current” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.456 bb are comparable to 1.673 bb of U.S. corn ending stocks for MY 2008/09, and 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10 – and above the recent down-trending ending stocks of 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, and 821 mb in MY 2012/13. 

Projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 10.9% in “current” MY 2013/14 is down from the February WASDE projection of 11.1%, from 12.4% in January, the December 2013 WASDE projection of 13.7%, and also down from the September-November 2013 forecasts of 14.6%-14.7%.  However, the March 2014 projection of 10.9% S/U for “current” MY 2013/14 is still up significantly from 7.4% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 & Figures 7-8).  United States’ corn % ending stocks-to-use declined from 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and 7.4% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, before being projected now for the first time in five (5) years to increase to 10.9% in “current” MY 2013/14. 

U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be $4.25-$4.75 bu/ac (midpoint = $4.50) – narrowing $0.05 on both ends of the range from February, but down from the record high of $6.89 /bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 & Figures 9-10).  Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower and higher again, from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, up to the record high of $6.89 in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 – with a decline now forecast to the price range midpoint projection of $4.50 in “current” MY 2013/14. 

I-E. USDA and KSU U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

There seems to be a tendency for early season forecasts by both the USDA and University grain market economists to project full production scenarios.  This has been especially true since the winter of 2010 during which time preseason U.S. pre-season corn production forecasts have been markedly larger than what final U.S. corn crop production totals have ended up as each year.  A combination of drought and poor crop development conditions lead to lower than originally expected U.S. corn production in 2010, 2011, and 2012.   And although the 2013 U.S. corn crop has ended up being record large, still it is markedly lower than original early 2013 production forecast of 14.5+ bb. 

Projections for 2014 U.S. corn production by the USDA and Kansas State University may very well follow this same pattern of being overly optimistic – implicitly discounting the possibility of 2014 U.S. corn crop production problems.  For example, KSU forecasts provided here are decidedly conservative in terms of projected U.S. corn prices, with a 60% probability of U.S. corn prices averaging near $4.25 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15, and an additional 20% probability of prices averaging near $3.90 per bushel. 

Given the market information available in March 2014, these conservative price projections still seem reasonable.  However, 2014 production uncertainty and the possibility of overly pessimistic projections of U.S. corn usage in the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year may very well lead to higher prices than these projections.

USDA Projections U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15

The initial formal USDA projections of 2014 U.S. corn production along with supply-demand and price prospects was given at the 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 20-21, 2014 in Arlington, Virginia (www.usda.gov/oce/forum).  Since at least the winter of 2006/07 there has been a tendency for early season projections of U.S. corn production by the USDA, private industry analysts, and University Extension Grain Marketing Specialists to be for “full production”, i.e., assuming trend line U.S. corn yields or better and generally large corn crops. 

An adjusted version of the “next” 2014/15 marketing year projections from the 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference is provided in Table 1, with lower beginning stocks of 1.456 bb to match the March 2014 WASDE projection of ending stocks projection for “current” MY 2013/14.  All other changes in total supplies, ending stocks, and percent ending stocks-to-use follow from the change in beginning stocks.  With the availability of updated information in the March 10th WASDE report, projected percent ending stocks-to-use has been reduced, being dropped to 15.6%.  This compares to 15.8% as projected in the USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference released on February 21st, and to 19.2% as projected in the USDA Agricultural Baseline forecasts on February 13th.  With these reductions in projected U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use, in this article the USDA’s price projection has been adjusted upward by $0.25 per bushel up to $3.90 per bushel (i.e., up from $3.65  per bushel in the Agricultural Projections to 2023).

KSU Probability-Based Projections U.S. Corn Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for MY 2014/15

Kansas State University forecasts of U.S. corn supply-demand balances for “next year’s crop” in the 2014/15 marketing year are provided below.   The KSU projections are an effort to reflect the uncertainty that exists in regards to the amount of 2014 U.S. corn production. The size of the 2014 U.S. corn crop will be determined by 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres on the one hand, and on 2014 U.S. corn yields on the other.  The 2014 planted acreage projections follow from range of projections that have been made public by various industry and public sources since fall 2013. 

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage are found in Table 1 and Figure 2.   Projections of 2014 probability-weighted U.S. corn yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. corn average prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 based on projections of U.S. corn % ending stocks-to-use shown in Table 1 and Figure 7.  Three probability-weighted KSU supply-demand and price scenarios for “next year’s” U.S. corn crop” MY 2014/15 follow below.  

It should be noted that the key market determining factor to focus on in regards to production – supply prospects is the projected size of the 2014 U.S. corn crop and the projected probability attached to it.   In these projections the low acreage and low yield scenarios were deliberately placed together in Scenario #3 to represent the “low 2014 U.S. corn production” scenario.  Similarly, the high planted acreage and high yield scenarios are deliberately placed together to represent the “high 2014 production” outcome in scenario #2.  

It is possible – and indeed likely – that if at the end of the 2014 U.S. corn growing season the United States could have a corn crop of the size projected in either the high production or low production outcomes in either scenarios #2 or #3, but for different specific acreage and/or yield outcomes than are represented in the scenarios below.

Scenario #1: “Likely” 2014 Trend Yield-92.5 Million Acres Planted – 60% Probability

It is estimated there is a “6 out of 10” or 60% chance of final 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage being approximately 2.5 million acres less than 2013 U.S. corn planted acreage of 95.4 million acres (Table 1).   Assuming 2000-2013 average U.S. corn % harvested-to-planted acreage of 91.0%, 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 84.2 ma. 

Using a simple 1973-2013 trend line yield of 159.4 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. corn production would be 13.421 bb, with total U.S. corn supplies of 14.907 bb, U.S. corn usage at 13.275 bb, ending stocks of 1.632 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 12.3% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. corn average prices would be in the range of $3.75-$4.75 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $4.25) (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

Scenario #2: “Higher” 2014 Production: High Yields & 95.0 Million Acres Planted – 20% Probability

It is estimated that there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance of final 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage being 95.0 ma, approximately 400,000 acres less than 2013 U.S. corn planted acreage of 95.4 million acres (Table 1).   Assuming 2000-2013 average U.S. corn % harvested-to-planted acreage of 91.0%, 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 86.5 ma. 

Using a record high U.S. corn yield of 164.4 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. corn production would be 14.221 bb, with total U.S. corn supplies of 15.707 bb, U.S. corn usage at 13.650 bb, ending stocks of 2.057 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 15.1% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. corn average prices would be in the range of $3.40-$4.40 per bushel for “next year’s crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $3.90) (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

Scenario #3: “Lower” 2014 Production: Low Yields & 90.0 Million Acres Planted – 20% Probability

It is estimated that there is a “2 out of 10” or 20% chance of final 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage being 90.0 ma, approximately 5.4 ma less than 2013 U.S. corn planted acreage of 95.4 million acres (Table 2).   Assuming 2000-2013 average U.S. corn % harvested-to-planted acreage of 91.0%, 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 81.9 ma. 

Using a moderately lower U.S. corn yield of 154.4 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. corn production would be 12.645 bb, with total U.S. corn supplies of 14.141 bb, U.S. corn usage at 12.775 bb, ending stocks of 1.366 bb, and % ending stocks-to-use near 10.7% for “next crop” MY 2014/15.  U.S. corn average prices would be in the range of $4.30-$5.30 per bushel for “next crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $4.80) (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

II. World Corn Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that “current” 2013/14 marketing year World corn production will increase 12.0% over “last year’s” MY 2012/13 crop.  With increased available World corn total supplies up 10.6% - World corn total use is also projected to increase by 9.5% in “current” MY 2013/14 over the previous year.  With the historically large 2013 South American feedgrain crop that was harvested in the first half of the year – that has been followed by a record large 2013 U.S. corn crop harvested in the fall months, supplies have grown relative to use such that projected “current” 2013/14 U.S. and World corn ending stocks, and % ending stocks-to-use have grown on a year-over-year basis, while current and projected U.S. corn prices have declined through the late fall and winter of 2013-2014. However, international grain market uncertainty, low price-induced usage of corn for ethanol and exports, and holding of U.S. corn to date by growers hoping for higher selling prices have worked together to cause U.S. corn prices to move higher since mid-January.

Prospects for markedly higher U.S. corn prices through spring-summer 2014 still remain somewhat constrained by the presence of larger U.S. and World corn supplies that remain to be moved on to the market.  But until U.S. corn growers are induced to sell their 2013 crops en mass, or until some combination of threatening crop growing conditions threaten the U.S. 2014 corn crop, there still seems to be limits as to how high U.S. cash corn prices can move.   

II-A. World Corn Supply-Demand Balances

Projected World corn production of 968 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 would be a record high, and is up from 863 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13;  886 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 795-834 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Figure 9). 

Projected World corn use of 940 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 866 mmt for “last year’s” MY 2012/13; 865 mmt in MY 2011/12; and the range of 774-852 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Figure 9). 

Projected World corn ending stocks of 158 mmt for “current” MY 2013/14 is an increase of 23 mmt (up 17.7%) from 135 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 – and if attained would be the largest amount of World corn ending stocks since at least MY 2007/08.  Over the last seven years, World corn ending stocks have equaled 132 mmt in MY 2007/08; 147 mmt in MY 2008/09; 146 mmt in MY 2009/10; 129 mmt in MY 2010/11; 133 mmt in MY 2011/12; 135 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13; and are projected to be 158 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14.

World corn % ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 16.9% in “current” MY 2013/14, up from 15.6% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, 15.3% in MY 2011/12, and 15.2% in MY 2010/11, while being near the lower end of the range of 17.0%-18.8% in the MY 2007/08 through MY 2009/10 period.   Historically, the minimum levels of World corn % ending stocks-to-use since the early-1970s have occurred in MY 1972/73 (12.3%), MY 1973/74 (11.8% S/U), MY 2006/07 (15.3% S/U), and in the last four marketing years of MY 2010/11 (15.2% S/U), MY 2011/12 (15.3% S/U), “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (15.6% S/U), and “current” MY 2013/14 level of 16.9%.  World corn ending stocks-to-use of 15.2% in MY 2010/11 is the lowest level since 11.8% in MY 1973/74. 

II-B. World Corn Production by Country / Region

Global corn production in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 967.5 mmt, down 0.9 mmt from February, but up 12.1% from 863.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 9.2% from 886.0 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 2).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn production is projected to be 613.8 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 4.1% from 589.6 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 7.3% from 572.0 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major corn producing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with any changes that have occurred in these forecasts since the February 2014 WASDE report.  Production estimates are also provided for these major World corn producers for “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and in MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases are projected in all major corn producing countries or regions in “current” MY 2013/14 except for Brazil (down 11 mmt to 70 mmt) and Argentina (down 2.5 mmt to 24 mmt).  A portion of the “current” MY 2013/14 Brazilian and Argentina corn crops had been planted in late 2013/early 2014 – with additional late plantings also occurring. These crops are to be harvested in spring/summer 2014.   China is projected to be the second largest producer of corn in MY 2013/14 at 218 mmt, trailing only the United States (353.7 mmt).

II-C. World Corn Exports by Country / Region

Global corn exports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 114.5 mmt, up 0.1 mmt from February, and up 21.2% from 94.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being down 2.1% from 117.0 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn exports are projected to be 73.3 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, down from 75.9 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down from 77.8 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major corn exporting countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with any changes that have occurred in these forecasts since the January WASDE report.  Export estimates are also provided for these major World corn exporters for “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in corn exports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the United States, South Africa, and the Ukraine.  However, decreased exports are projected for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and Canada.  The United States (41.3 mmt) is the projected leader in World corn exports, followed by Brazil (20.0 mmt), Ukraine (18.5 mmt), Argentina (16.0 mmt), South Africa (2.0 mmt), and Canada (1.5 mmt).  

II-D. World Corn Imports by Country / Region

Global corn imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be a 109.9 mmt, up 11.4% from 98.6 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 10.0% from 99.9 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn imports are projected to be 109.0 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up from 94.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and from 99.2 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major corn importing countries or regions in the World in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in corn imports in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and China.  However, decreased imports are projected for the European Union and the United States.  Japan (15.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World corn importer in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by Mexico (11.5 mmt – up from 5.7 mmt a year ago), the European Union (10.5 mmt), South Korea (9.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.5 mmt), Egypt (6.2 mmt), and China (5.0 mmt – up from 2.7 mmt a year ago). 

II-E. World Corn Feed Use by Country / Region

Global corn domestic feed use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 574.9 mmt, up 1.4 mmt from February, up 11.5% from 515.6 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 13.4% from 507.1 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 5).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn domestic feed use is projected to be 440.3 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 8.6% from 405.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 12.5% from 391.3 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of corn domestic feed use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in corn feed use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all major importing and exporting countries.  China (156.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for domestic feeding in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the United States (134.6 mmt), the European Union (56.5 mmt), Brazil (46.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (26.4 mmt), Mexico (15.0 mmt), Japan (11.0 mmt), Egypt (10.0 mmt), Ukraine (8.5 mmt), South Korea (7.5 mmt), Canada (7.5 mmt), South Africa (5.1 mmt), and Argentina (5.0 mmt). 

II-F. World Corn Food, Seed, & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global corn FSI use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 368.8 mmt, down 1.0 mmt from February, up 6.6% from 345.9 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down 1.7% from 375.5 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn FSI use is projected to be 206.2 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 7.2% from 192.4 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and down 2.3% from 212.2 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn FSI use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in corn FSI use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all major importing and exporting countries.  The United States (162.6 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn for FSI use in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by China (60.0 mmt), the European Union (17.0 mmt), Mexico (16.5 mmt), Brazil (9.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (8.0 mmt), South Africa (5.9 mmt), Canada (5.4 mmt), Japan (4.5 mmt), Argentina (3.0 mmt), South Korea (2.1 mmt), Egypt (2.0 mmt), and Ukraine (1.6 mmt). 

II-G. World Corn Total Use by Country / Region

Global corn total use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 943.7 mmt, up 0.4 mmt from February, up 9.5% from 861.5 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 6.9% from 882.5 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn total use is projected to be 646.5 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 8.1% from 598.0 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 7.1% from 603.5 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of corn total use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in corn total use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for all major importing and exporting countries.  The United States (297.2 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of corn in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the China (216.0 mmt), the European Union (73.5 mmt), Brazil (55.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (34.4 mmt), Mexico (31.5 mmt), Japan (15.5 mmt), Canada (12.9 mmt), Egypt (12.0 mmt), South Africa (11.0 mmt), South Korea (9.6 mmt), Ukraine (10.1 mmt), and Argentina (8.0 mmt). 

II-H. World Corn Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Global corn ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 158.5 mmt, up 1.4 mmt from February, and up 17.7% from 134.7 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 19.4% from 132.8 mmt in MY 2011/12 (Table 8).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks is projected to be 121.5 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 6.7% from 113.8 mmt in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up 12.9% from 107.6 mmt in MY 2011/12. 

Table 8 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of corn ending stocks in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the United States, Mexico, Southeast Asia, Canada, China, the European Union, and the Ukraine.  Decreased or essentially unchanged ending stocks are projected for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Japan, and Egypt.  China (72.2 mmt) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by the United States (37.0 mmt), Brazil (9.9 mmt), the European Union (5.8 mmt), South Africa (3.4 mmt), Ukraine (3.6 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.0 mmt), Mexico (2.5 mmt), Canada (1.9 mmt), South Korea (1.3 mmt), Argentina (1.4 mmt), Egypt (1.2 mmt), and Japan (0.5 mmt). 

II-I. World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Global corn ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be a 16.8%, up from 16.6% in February, and up from 15.6% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 15.0% in MY 2011/12 (Table 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) corn ending stocks-to-use is projected to be 16.9% in “current” MY 2013/14, unchanged from 16.9% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and up from 15.8% in MY 2011/12. 

Table 9 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of corn ending stocks-to-use in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year, along with “last year’s” MY 2012/13 and MY 2011/12.  Year-over-year increases in corn ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14 are projected for the European Union, Argentina, Mexico, Canada, China and Ukraine.  Decreased or essentially unchanged ending stocks-to-use are projected for Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan, and Egypt.  China (33.4%) is projected to be the largest World holder of corn ending stocks-to-use in “current” MY 2013/14, followed by South Africa (26.5%), South Korea (13.6%), Brazil (13.2%), Canada (12.8%), Ukraine (12.4%), the United States (10.9%), Egypt (9.7%), Southeast Asia (8.5%), Mexico (7.7%), the European Union (7.6%), Argentina (5.9%), and Japan (3.4%). 

II-J. Relationship Between World Corn % Ending Stocks-to-Use & U.S. Corn Prices

Similar to the relationship between U.S. corn ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average corn prices (see Figure 8), since MY 1973/74 a negative relationship has existed between U.S. corn season average cash prices and World corn % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “jump” after MY 2007/08 (Figure 10). 

Larger World corn supply-demand balances relative to use (i.e., higher percent ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. and World corn prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher corn prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 8 earlier, U.S. corn prices in Figure 10 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).  

Whereas the minimum U.S. corn percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 5.0% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 1995/96, the historic minimum in World corn percent stocks-to-use of 11.8% occurred in MY 1973/74.  Since 2007/08, World corn ending stocks-to-use had not fallen below 15.2% in MY 2010/11, but now have fallen to a minimum level at 15.0% in MY 2011/12, and 15.6% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.   Current projections are for World corn percent stocks-to-use to be 16.8% in “current” MY 2013/14.

****************************

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “Next Crop” MY 2014/15 (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE & KSU Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

USDA

March 2014 2013/14

USDA

Adjusted

Ag Outlook

2014/15

KSU

Lower Yield-90.0 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

Trend Yield-92.5 mln ac.

2014/15

KSU

Higher Yield-95.0 mln ac.

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

60%

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

86.0

86.4

88.2

91.9

97.2

95.4

92.0

90.0

92.5

95.0

Harvested Area (million acres)

78.6

79.5

81.4

84.0

87.4

87.7

84.6

81.9

84.2

86.5

% Harvested/Planted Area

91.4%

92.0%

92.4%

91.4%

89.9%

91.9%

92.0%

91.0%

91.0%

91.0%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

153.9

164.7

152.8

147.2

123.4

158.8

165.3

154.4

159.4

164.4

 

 

Beginning Stocks

1,624

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

*1,456

1,456

1,456

1,456

Production

12,092

13,092

12,447

12,360

10,780

13,925

13,985

12,645

13,421

14,221

Imports

14

8

28

29

162

35

25

40

30

30

Total Supply

13,729

14,774

14,182

13,517

11,932

14,781

*15,446

14,141        

14,907

15,707

 

 

Ethanol for fuel Use

3,709

4,591

5,019

5,000

4,648

5,000

5,000

4,850

5,000

5,250

Non-ethanol Food, Seed & Industrial Use

1,316

1,370

1,407

1,428

1,396

1,400

1,430

1,350

1,400

1,425

Exports

1,849

1,980

1,834

1,543

731

1,625

1,550

1,375

1,575

1,625

Feed & Residual Use

5,182

5,125

4,795

4,557

4,335

5,300

5,400

5,200

5,300

5,350

Total Use

12,056

13,066

13,055

12,528

11,111

13,325

13,380

12,775

13,275

13,650

 

 

Ending Stocks

1,673

1,708

1,128

989

821

1,456

*2,086

1,366

1,632

2,057

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

13.88%

13.07%

8.64%

7.89%

7.39%

10.93%

*15.59%

10.69%

12.29%

15.07%

U.S. Corn Average Farm Price ($/bushel)

$4.06

$3.55

$5.18

$6.22

$6.89

$4.25-$4.75

($4.50)

*$3.90

 

$4.30-$5.30

($4.80)

$3.75-$4.75

($4.25)

$3.40-$4.40

($3.90)


 

Figure 2. U.S. Crop Planted Acreage for 2000-2013 Plus 2014 USDA & KSU Projections

Figure 3. U.S. Corn Yield Trend for 1973-2013 Plus 2014 Projections

Text Box: 1973-2013 U.S. Corn Yield Trend
Yield (bu/ac) = 83.81 bu + 1.80 bu/year
 
Trend Yield for 2014 = 159.4 bu/acre

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Figure 5. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use              

Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2012/13
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2013/14
Text Box: 6/4/2010 – 3/7/2014
U.S. DOE-EIA data
Text Box: 2009/10

Figure 6. U.S. Corn Supply-Demand with DDGS Adjustments (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

 

Figure 7. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks vs U.S. Avg. Cash Prices: MY 2006/07 through “Next Crop” 2014/15 (KSU)                                

Figure 8. U.S. Corn Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected “Current” MY 2014/15)    
(March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE;, MY 2014/15 Forecasts from 2/21 USDA Ag Outlook Conference, & KSU)

Text Box: USDA: “Next Crop” 2014/15
12.5% S/U, $4.15 /bu
Text Box: KSU: “Next Crop” 2014/15
12.5% S/U, $4.15 /bu
Text Box: 1995/96
Text Box: 2010/11

Figure 9. World Corn Supply-Demand: MY 2007/08 thru 2013/14 (March 10, 2014 USDA WASDE)

Text Box: 13 year high in end stocks projected for 
MY 2013/14 
@ 158.5 mmt
 
4 year high in % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2013/14 
 @ 16.9% StxUse
Text Box: “Recovery” in World Corn Exports 
in MY 2013/14
Text Box: Production
ñ3.6%/yr
Text Box: Usage
ñ3.6%/yr

Figure 10. U.S. Corn Price vs % World Corn Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through projected MY 2013/14)         
(February 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: 1973/74

 

Table 2. World Corn Production Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Corn Production by Major Country / Region

Corn Production: "Current" 2013/14     March 2014

Corn Production: Feb ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production:               March ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Production:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Corn Production: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Production of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Production

Corn Production: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Production             Less                     2011/12 Production

% "Current" 2013/14 Production       of                         2011/12 Production

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

967.52

966.63

0.89

100.1%

863.42

104.10

112.1%

885.99

81.53

109.2%

United States

353.72

353.72

0.00

100.0%

273.83

79.89

129.2%

313.95

39.77

112.7%

Total Foreign

613.80

612.92

0.88

100.1%

589.59

24.21

104.1%

572.04

41.76

107.3%

Major Exporters

107.00

107.00

0.00

100.0%

119.87

(12.87)

89.3%

106.76

0.24

100.2%

Argentina

24.00

24.00

0.00

100.0%

26.50

(2.50)

90.6%

21.00

3.00

114.3%

Brazil

70.00

70.00

0.00

100.0%

81.00

(11.00)

86.4%

73.00

(3.00)

95.9%

South Africa

13.00

13.00

0.00

100.0%

12.37

0.63

105.1%

12.76

0.24

101.9%

Major Importers

118.49

118.43

0.06

100.1%

111.60

6.89

106.2%

117.47

1.02

100.9%

Egypt

5.60

5.60

0.00

100.0%

5.80

(0.20)

96.6%

5.50

0.10

101.8%

European Union - 28 Countries

64.89

64.69

0.20

100.3%

58.86

6.03

110.2%

68.12

(3.23)

95.3%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

21.70

21.70

0.00

100.0%

21.59

0.11

100.5%

18.73

2.97

115.9%

Southeast Asia

26.18

26.32

(0.14)

99.5%

25.22

0.96

103.8%

25.03

1.15

104.6%

South Korea

0.08

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.00

100.0%

0.07

0.01

114.3%

Canada

14.20

14.20

0.00

100.0%

13.06

1.14

108.7%

11.36

2.84

125.0%

China

217.73

217.00

0.73

100.3%

205.61

12.12

105.9%

192.78

24.95

112.9%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

46.21

46.21

0.00

100.0%

32.33

13.88

142.9%

34.12

12.09

135.4%

Ukraine

30.90

30.90

0.00

100.0%

20.92

9.98

147.7%

22.84

8.06

135.3%

 

Table 3. World Corn Export Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Corn Exports by Major Country / Region

Corn Exports: "Current" 2013/14     March 2014

Corn Exports: Feb ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports:               March ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Exports:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Corn Exports: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Exports of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Exports

Corn Exports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Exports             Less                     2011/12 Exports

% "Current" 2013/14 Exports          of                         2011/12 Exports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

114.53

114.42

0.11

100.1%

94.46

20.07

121.2%

116.98

(2.45)

97.9%

United States

41.28

40.64

0.64

101.6%

18.58

22.70

222.2%

39.18

2.10

105.4%

Total Foreign

73.25

73.78

(0.53)

99.3%

75.89

(2.64)

96.5%

77.79

(4.54)

94.2%

Major Exporters

38.00

38.00

0.00

100.0%

45.40

(7.40)

83.7%

43.30

(5.30)

87.8%

Argentina

16.00

16.00

0.00

100.0%

18.50

(2.50)

86.5%

17.15

(1.15)

93.3%

Brazil

20.00

20.00

0.00

100.0%

25.00

(5.00)

80.0%

24.34

(4.34)

82.2%

South Africa

2.00

2.00

0.00

100.0%

1.90

0.10

105.3%

1.81

0.19

110.5%

Major Importers

2.85

3.35

(0.50)

85.1%

2.81

0.04

101.4%

4.36

(1.51)

65.4%

Egypt

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

2.00

2.50

(0.50)

80.0%

2.19

(0.19)

91.3%

3.29

(1.29)

60.8%

Japan

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Mexico

0.30

0.30

0.00

100.0%

0.52

(0.22)

57.7%

0.69

(0.39)

43.5%

Southeast Asia

0.54

0.54

0.00

100.0%

0.09

0.45

600.0%

0.37

0.17

145.9%

South Korea

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

Canada

1.50

1.50

0.00

100.0%

1.75

(0.25)

85.7%

0.49

1.01

306.1%

China

0.10

0.10

0.00

100.0%

0.08

0.02

125.0%

0.09

0.01

111.1%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

21.84

21.84

0.00

100.0%

15.00

6.84

145.6%

17.49

4.35

124.9%

Ukraine

18.50

18.50

0.00

100.0%

12.73

5.77

145.3%

15.16

3.34

122.0%


Table 4. World Corn Import Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Corn Imports by Major Country / Region

Corn Imports: "Current" 2013/14      March 2014

Corn Imports: Feb ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports:               March ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14 Imports:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Corn Imports: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14 Imports of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13 Imports

Corn Imports: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14 Imports             Less                     2011/12 Imports

% "Current" 2013/14 Imports         of   2011/12 Imports

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

109.92

109.92

0.00

100.0%

98.64

11.28

111.4%

99.92

10.00

110.0%

United States

0.89

0.89

0.00

100.0%

4.13

(3.24)

21.5%

0.75

0.14

118.7%

Total Foreign

109.04

109.04

0.00

100.0%

94.52

14.52

115.4%

99.17

9.87

110.0%

Major Exporters

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.93

(0.09)

90.3%

0.79

0.05

106.3%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Brazil

0.80

0.80

0.00

100.0%

0.90

(0.10)

88.9%

0.77

0.03

103.9%

South Africa

0.03

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.02

300.0%

Major Importers

66.00

66.00

0.00

100.0%

56.76

9.24

116.3%

58.04

7.96

113.7%

Egypt

6.20

6.20

0.00

100.0%

5.06

1.14

122.5%

7.15

(0.95)

86.7%

European Union - 28 Countries

10.50

10.50

0.00

100.0%

11.35

(0.85)

92.5%

6.11

4.39

171.8%

Japan

15.50

15.50

0.00

100.0%

14.41

1.09

107.6%

14.89

0.61

104.1%

Mexico

11.50

11.50

0.00

100.0%

5.68

5.82

202.5%

11.17

0.33

103.0%

Southeast Asia

8.50

8.50

0.00

100.0%

7.79

0.71

109.1%

6.74

1.76

126.1%

South Korea

9.50

9.50

0.00

100.0%

8.17

1.33

116.3%

7.64

1.86

124.3%

Canada

0.50

0.50

0.00

100.0%

0.48

0.02

104.2%

0.87

(0.37)

57.5%

China

5.00

5.00

0.00

100.0%

2.70

2.30

185.2%

5.23

(0.23)

95.6%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

0.32

0.32

0.00

100.0%

0.32

0.00

100.0%

0.33

(0.01)

97.0%

Ukraine

0.05

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.00

100.0%

0.05

0.00

100.0%

 

Table 5. World Corn Feed Use Projections for "Current" MY 2013/14, "Last year’s" MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Corn Feed Use by Major Country / Region

Corn         Feed Use: "Current" 2013/14      March 2014

Corn Feed Use: Feb ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14   Feed Use:               March ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14   Feed Use:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Corn        Feed Use: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Feed Use             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14   Feed Use of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13   Feed Use

Corn        Feed Use: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Feed Use             Less                     2011/12   Feed Use

% "Current" 2013/14   Feed Use of                         2011/12   Feed Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

574.93

573.53

1.40

100.2%

515.58

59.35

111.5%

507.05

67.88

113.4%

United States

134.63

134.63

0.00

100.0%

110.12

24.51

122.3%

115.74

18.89

116.3%

Total Foreign

440.30

438.90

1.40

100.3%

405.46

34.84

108.6%

391.31

48.99

112.5%

Major Exporters

56.10

56.10

0.00

100.0%

53.95

2.15

104.0%

52.75

3.35

106.4%

Argentina

5.00

5.00

0.00

100.0%

5.00

0.00

100.0%

4.80

0.20

104.2%

Brazil

46.00

46.00

0.00

100.0%

44.00

2.00

104.5%

43.00

3.00

107.0%

South Africa

5.10

5.10

0.00

100.0%

4.95

0.15

103.0%

4.95

0.15

103.0%

Major Importers

130.50

129.30

1.20

100.9%

119.08

11.42

109.6%

121.09

9.41

107.8%

Egypt

10.00

10.00

0.00

100.0%

9.70

0.30

103.1%

9.70

0.30

103.1%

European Union - 28 Countries

56.50

55.50

1.00

101.8%

53.00

3.50

106.6%

54.00

2.50

104.6%

Japan

11.00

11.00

0.00

100.0%

10.00

1.00

110.0%

10.40

0.60

105.8%

Mexico

15.00

15.00

0.00

100.0%

11.00

4.00

136.4%

13.20

1.80

113.6%

Southeast Asia

26.40

26.20

0.20

100.8%

24.80

1.60

106.5%

23.90

2.50

110.5%

South Korea

7.50

7.50

0.00

100.0%

6.48

1.02

115.7%

5.69

1.81

131.8%

Canada

7.50

7.50

0.00

100.0%

6.28

1.22

119.4%

6.40

1.10

117.2%

China

156.00

156.00

0.00

100.0%

144.00

12.00

108.3%

131.00

25.00

119.1%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

19.02

19.02

0.00

100.0%

15.49

3.53

122.8%

13.95

5.07

136.3%

Ukraine

8.50

8.50

0.00

100.0%

6.80

1.70

125.0%

6.50

2.00

130.8%

 

Table 6. World Corn Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use Projections for MY 2013/14, MY 2012/13, and MY 2011/12

World Corn Feed Use by Major Country / Region

Corn         Feed Use: "Current" 2013/14      March 2014

Corn Feed Use: Feb ‘14 "Current" 2013/14                   (1 month ago)

"Current" 2013/14   Feed Use:               March ‘14 Less Feb ‘14                    

"Current" 2013/14   Feed Use:                Percent (%)         March ‘14 of               Feb ‘14

Corn        Feed Use: "Last year’s" 2012/13           (1 year ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Feed Use             Less "Last year’s" 2012/13

% "Current" 2013/14   Feed Use of                         "Last year’s" 2012/13   Feed Use

Corn        Feed Use: 2011/12                           (2 years ago)

"Current" 2013/14    Feed Use             Less                     2011/12   Feed Use

% "Current" 2013/14   Feed Use of                         2011/12   Feed Use

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

368.79

369.80

(1.01)

99.7%

345.92

22.87

106.6%

375.48

(6.69)

98.2%

United States

162.56

162.56

0.00

100.0%

153.52

9.04

105.9%

163.29

(0.73)

99.6%

Total Foreign

206.23

207.23

(1.00)

99.5%