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Grain Market Outlook

Wheat Market Outlook in September 2014

September 25, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on September 11, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices have responded negatively to projections of larger U.S. and World wheat ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use.  The USDA projected for the “new crop” 2014/2015 marketing year that a) World wheat production, supplies, and total use would be at record high levels, b) World wheat export trade would be moderately lower than a year ago but still the third highest on record, and c) World wheat ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use would be at their highest levels in three marketing years, although still less than during the 2009/2010 through 2011/2012 period.  Wheat prices in the United States are projected to be down to the lowest levels in four years due to limited demand for U.S. wheat exports and for livestock wheat feeding.  Wheat market expectations concur with USDA projections that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states.  Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet emerged – at least to the degree that the “large crop-over supply” situation in World wheat markets has been affected.  That said, there are preliminary concerns emerging about dry wheat production conditions in Australia, as well as crop quality problems in parts of Europe.  The possible negative impact of military conflict in the Black Sea Region on World wheat exports has at least not yet emerged to an appreciable degree – but still holds potential to significantly impact wheat markets for at least the next several months.    

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and % stocks-to-use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 43.9 bu/ac yield, a 2.030 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.789 bb total supplies, 900 mb exports (down 25 mb from last month), 2.091 bb total use (up 10 mb), 698 mb ending stocks (up 25 mb), 33.38% ending stocks-to-use (up from 31.33% last month), and $5.90 average price per bu. (range of $5.50 to $6.30) – down from $6.30 last month. 

KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand balances and prices are essentially equal to the USDA’s except for the acknowledged possibility of a “Higher Export” scenario which is as follows:  a) “Higher Export” Scenario: 20% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 150 mb greater U.S. wheat exports.  This would result in 1.050 bb exports (up 150 mb from USDA), 2.241 bb total use (up 150 mb), 548 mb ending stocks (down 150 mb from the USDA), 24.45% S/U (versus 33.38% S/U for USDA), and a forecast price of $6.75 /bu (up from the USDA midpoint of $5.90). 

USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 906.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 889.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 855.0 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 196.4 mmt (27.7% S/U) are up from 186.5 mmt (26.5% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective these figures can be compared to the historic World wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08.  Year-over-year increases are projected for wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for major exporters Argentina (+4.3 mmt), Brazil (+0.9 mmt), Russia (+4.0 mmt), and Ukraine (+0.24 mmt), with decreases forecast for the U.S. (-7.5 mmt), Australia (-0.5 mmt), Canada (-1.24 mmt), the EU (-5.9 mmt), India (-2.9 mmt), and Kazakhstan (-1.6 mmt).  The U.S. wheat market will now likely focus on the September 30th USDA Small Grains Summary report, and on the progress that will be made this fall in seeding the U.S. winter wheat crop for 2015.


I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook

I-A. September 2014 USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On September 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply-demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15.   The “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015.  Information in the upcoming September 30th USDA NASS Quarterly Stocks report will be used in calculating adjustments to “old crop” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat usage and ending stocks in the October 10th USDA WASDE report.

No changes were made in projected U.S. wheat production in the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) September 2014 Crop Production report.  The USDA has indicated that revisions in planted acres of spring and durum wheat may occur in the upcoming USDA NASS Small Grains Summary to be released on Tuesday, September 30th

I-B. Kansas Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends

Wheat futures contract prices had trended higher from late January to early May 2014 due to a) declines in 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production prospects compared to the previous year, and b) geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea Region between Ukraine and Russia that put at risk and in question that region’s wheat and coarse grains exports - and ultimately were thought to provide a boost to U.S. wheat export prospects.    

However, since the market high in early May, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures have trended sharply lower as a) domestic U.S. hard red winter wheat crop prospects improved with adequate moisture and cooler temperatures in the Great Plains, b) adequate-to-favorable weather occurred in the U.S. eastern Corn Belt for at least “decent” 2014 U.S. soft red winter wheat production, c) major crop production problems were largely avoided for other major wheat export competitors, and d) the ongoing geopolitical conflict between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region did not disrupt the flow of Black Sea wheat exports into World wheat markets to a significant degree. 

In terms of specific price levels, after trading at a low of $6.22 on January 29th, electronic DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices trended sharply higher up to $8.01 ¼ on March 26th, and up to $8.62 on May 6th (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas Wheat futures have trended markedly lower, trading as low as $5.53 ½ on September 22nd and 23rd.

DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices responded to the release of the September 11th USDA reports by first trading lower on the day of the report, and then continuing to trend lower through September 23rdDECEMBER 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices opened at $6.15 on Thursday, September 11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low-high range of $6.01 to $6.15 ¼ during the session before closing at $0.09 ¼ lower for the day at $6.06 ¼ /bu (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures prices have fallen sharply, declining from a high of $6.06 ¼ on September 12th down to lows of $5.53 ½ on September 22nd and 23rd, before closing at $5.62 on September 23rd

Figure 1. DECEMBER 2014 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014)

 

 The U.S. Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid-July 2011, but has trended sharply higher since July 1, 2014 (Figure 2).  After trading at 75.91 on July 1, the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 80.1 on September 19th.  This trend is significant to the U.S. wheat market, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars which they would use in turn to purchase U.S. wheat exports.  Although this is not the only factor that is negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports at this time, it is a very important one – working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative in World wheat trade

Figure 2. JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014)

 

I-C. U.S. Wheat Production

U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production

The USDA made no changes in its September 11th Crop Production report in regards to U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage, yields, production both in aggregate and by specific wheat class (i.e., winter wheat, other spring wheat, and durum).  These numbers are subject to adjustment in the upcoming USDA NASS 2014 Small Grains Summary report to be released on September 30th

The USDA’s current projections are for 2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage to be 56.474 million acres (ma), up from 56.156 ma in 2013, 55.666 ma in 2012, 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1-2).   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 46.240 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012, and up from 45.705 ma in 2011.  The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 81.9%, up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012, and 84.0% in 2011 (Figure 2).  The proportion of harvested-to-planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.

The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 43.9 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is unchanged from the USDA’s August projection, but up from the USDA’s July projection of 43.1 bu/ac.  The projected 2014 yield of  43.9 bu/ac is down from the record high of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and from 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).   Taking these harvested acreage and yield projections together, the USDA forecast 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 2.030 billion bushels (bb) – unchanged from August, but up 38 million  bushels (mb) from July, and up 88 mb from June.   However, the 2014 projection of 2.030 bb is still down from 2.130 bb in 2013, and 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).   

I-D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies

Total supplies of 2.789 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning stocks of 590 mb, projected 2014 production of 2.030 bb, and projected imports of 170 mb (Table 1).  Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.789 bb in MY 2014/15 are up 10 mb from the August WASDE report, but still down to the lowest amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years.  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.131 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.016 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 2.789 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 590 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down 17.8% from 718 mb in beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14.  This is the lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the historically tight ending stocks situation that developed in MY 2007/08).  This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the pattern that had developed of steadily tighter U.S. wheat supplies over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY 2010/11).  

Projected U.S. wheat imports of 170 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 10 mb from the August WASDE, and would be the highest amount on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 169 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Since MY 1973/74 the next highest amounts have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.  Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable location / logistics.  Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last two years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports.  Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.1 mmt), 1991 (32.0 mmt), and 1986 (31.4 mmt).  Projected Canadian wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 28.0 mmt (above the most recent 10 year average of 26.5 mmt).  

I-E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category

Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending consistently higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated increases in demand for processed wheat products.  This projected amount of 960 mb in food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 951 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, from 945 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). 

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down marginally from 77 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and compares to 73 mb in MY 2012/13, and 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed over time, driven primarily by a) the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from on-farm and commercial seed sources), and b) the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover possible seed wheat production shortfalls from year to year. 

Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (down 25 mb from the August WASDE) is down sharply from 1.176 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14.  This amount of U.S. wheat exports would be the lowest since 879 mb in MY 2009/10.  The anticipation of lower available supplies of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along with the likelihood of more than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are both factors in this lower U.S. export projection of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  That said, the risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15 Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather pattern in coming months, as well as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine) and potential dry or otherwise adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas are factors that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the later stages of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  

Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through September 11th – the 15th week of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat – totaled 277.2 mb, which is 30.8% of the USDA’s projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 exports of 900 mb with 28.9% (15 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  “New crop” MY 2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015.  United States’ export shipments will need to average 16.8 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s September WASDE projection of 900 mb.  Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 20.5 mb and 28.4 mb during the weeks ending September 4th and 11th, respectively, were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 900 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).

In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 179.8 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of September 11th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 457.0 mb (i.e., 277.2 mb shipped plus 179.8 mb forward sales with rounding).  This amounts to 50.8% of the USDA’s projection of 900 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 28.9% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 15 of 52 weeks). 

If a sharp, unexpected increase in U.S. wheat exports were to occur during the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. wheat price prospects could improve considerably as supply-demand balances would tighten.  The potential exists for wheat production problems in major wheat producing and exporting countries such as Australia, Russia, Ukraine, parts of the European Union, Canada, Argentina, and even the United States.  The potential impact on U.S. wheat supply-demand balances and prices for “new crop” 2014/15 will be discussed in the “KSU Forecast” section below.  As noted in early section, the higher value of the U.S. Dollar is being cited as a factor that has been limiting U.S. wheat exports (see Figure 2 and accompanying discussion).

Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 155 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 222 mb for “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 1 mb), the recent high of 384 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has trended lower across “old crop” MY 2013/14 and “new crop” MY 2014/15 due to sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which lead to more abundant U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  Subsequently, over the last two U.S. wheat marketing years there has been and is now lower cross-market demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in both domestic and foreign markets.

Total U.S. Wheat Use:  Summing the categories together, total use of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 2.091 bb, down 25 mb from the August WASDE report but up 10 mb from the July WASDE (Table 1 and Figure 4).  U.S. wheat total use of 2.091 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the 3rd smallest amount of U.S. wheat total usage over the last decade (since MY 2005/06). 

Over the last decade, U.S. wheat total use has varied from 2.154 bb in MY 2005/06, 2.045 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.314 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.275 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.018 bb in MY 2009/10, 2.417 bb in MY 2010/11 (the 2nd largest amount during the 8 year period), 2.231 bb in MY 2011/12, 2.414 bb in MY 2012/13 (the 3rd largest amount during the 8 year period), to the largest amount in this period of 2.426 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and finally to 2.091 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Total usage of U.S. wheat in MY 2012/13 and “old crop” MY 2013/14 were boosted by higher than usual livestock feeding of wheat in reaction to extremely tight U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies – which in turn led to substitutionary demand for U.S. wheat in feed rations.

I-F. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks, % Stocks-to-Use & Prices

United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year were projected to be 698 mb, up 35 mb from the August WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 4).  This amount of U.S. wheat ending stocks is still markedly larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year in recent years.  Over the last eight marketing years, U.S. wheat ending stocks have been a record low 306 mb in MY 2007/08, 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 862 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY 2011/12, 718 mb in MY 2012/13, an estimated 590 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 698 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. wheat of 33.38% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 31.33% in the August WASDE, and up from 24.32% in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 5-6).  This projection of 33.38% U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the historic 67 year low of 13.2% in MY 2007/08, 28.9% in MY 2008/09, 48.4% in MY 2009/10, 35.7% in MY 2010/11, 33.3% in MY 2011/12, 29.7% in MY 2012/13, and 24.3% for “old crop” MY 2013/14.   

U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $5.50-$6.30 per bushel (“/bu”) (midpoint = $5.90 /bu) – down $0.30 /bu on the lower end and down $0.50 /bu on the upper end of the price range, with a midpoint forecast of $5.90 (down $0.40 /bu from the September 11th WASDE report.  This compares to $6.87 /bu in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and the record high of $7.77 /bu for MY 2012/13 (Table 2 and Figures 5-6). 

Since the record tight U.S. and World wheat ending stocks marketing year of 2007/08, U.S. wheat prices have varied in the following manner over time: $6.48 per bushel in MY 2007/08, $6.78 in MY 2008/09, $4.87 in MY 2009/10, $5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, $7.77 in MY 2012/13, $6.87 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now a forecast range of $5.50-$6.30 /bu (midpoint = $5.90 /bu) in “new crop” MY 2014/15.     

An indicator of inflation that has occurred in U.S. wheat prices is found by comparing the situation in the historical “tight stocks” year of MY 2007/08 with “new crop” MY 2014/15.  In MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use were a record low 13.2% with an average U.S. wheat price of $6.48 per bushel – at that time a record high.  In comparison, in “new crop” MY 2014/15, U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are estimated to be 2.5 times (150%) higher at 33.38% S/U, but with U.S. wheat prices projected to be only moderately lower in the range of $5.50-$6.30 (midpoint = $5.90 /bu).  Similarly, in MY 2012/13 U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are estimated to be 2.25 times (125%) higher than in 2007/08 at 29.7%, while U.S. wheat prices are still 20% higher at a record high of $7.77 /bu.  Higher prices for U.S. wheat while U.S. wheat ending stocks – to – use measures are also higher indicate that inflation has occurred in U.S. wheat prices.

I-G. KSU U.S. Wheat “Higher Export” Scenario for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

The primary factor that could change U.S. wheat price prospects at this time in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year would be a sharp increase in U.S. wheat exports.  There is still a reasonable chance that this could occur, given wheat production problems occurring in Australia, and that could yet occur among other major World wheat export producers.  

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage, yields and production (all equal to those of the USDA) for the “Higher Exports” scenario is found in Table 1. A probability-weighted KSU forecast of U.S. wheat average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 for the “Higher Export” scenario based on projections of U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use is also provided Table 1.  Specifics are provided below.

A.     “Higher Exports” Scenario: Exports = 1.050 bb, 24.45% Stx/Use, $6.75/bu – 20% Probability

In this “Higher Exports” outcome scenario, it is estimated that at this time there is a 20% chance of U.S. wheat acreage, yields, production, and non-export usage being essentially equal to USDA projections in the September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE report with the exception of higher exports and lower projected prices (Table 1 and Figure 5). 

With 2014 U.S. wheat planted acres of 56.474 million acres (ma), harvested acres of 46.240 ma, 2014 U.S. wheat yields of 43.9 bu/ac, 2014 U.S. wheat production of 2.030 bb, “new crop” MY 2014/15 total supplies equaling 2.789 bb, exports of 1.050 bb (up 150 mb from 900 mb forecast by the USDA), U.S. wheat total usage of 2.241 bb (up 150 mb), ending stocks of 548 mb (down 150 mb from the USDA), % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 24.45% (down from 33.38% projected by the USDA). Given these forecast assumptions, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $6.25-$7.25 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $6.75). 

This KSU price “Higher Export” scenario projection compares to the USDA’s “new crop” MY 2014/15 projection of $5.50-$6.30 (mid-point = $5.90 /bu), with the midpoint of the KSU “Higher Export” forecast of $6.75 being above the upper end of the USDA forecast price range (i.e., above $6.30 /bu). 

II. World Wheat Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that World wheat production in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will be up 0.8% from the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year that ended on May 31st, and up 9.4% from two years ago in MY 2012/13.  World wheat total supplies in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are forecast to be 906.4 mmt, up 1.4% from 889.7 mmt a year ago, but up 6.0% from 855.0 mmt two years ago.  Given these changes, World wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to increase marginally (up 1.0%) from “old crop” MY 2013/14, but to be up 4.5% from MY 2012/13.  World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to increase by 5.3% from a year earlier in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and by 11.8% from two years ago in MY 2012/13.  

A large amount of uncertainty still exists for the World wheat market supply-demand balance situation that will ultimately develop in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (i.e., over the June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015 period).  However, absent any major 2014 wheat production shortfalls or other unanticipated geopolitical conflicts or disruptive economic problems among major world wheat producers and exporters, if the USDA’s September 11th WASDE report projection holds true, wheat prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will likely be lower than the price levels that occurred in “old crop” MY 2013/14.   

Wheat producing areas of the World from which annual variations in wheat production have had a notable impact on wheat markets in the last several years include a) Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the Black Sea Region, b) Australia, c) the United States, d) Canada, e) the wheat production regions in the European Union, and f) China.  At this time World wheat markets either are not focusing on or aware of possible production problems that could occur in these key World wheat production areas – although concerns are emerging about developing dry production conditions in Australia.   In this and each other marketing year the potential exists for production and/or supply problems to develop sometime during the remainder of 2014 and on into 2015 that are of a magnitude that World wheat markets could be significantly impacted.     

II-A. World Wheat Production by Country / Region

Projected World wheat production of 720.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the largest crop on record, being up 0.8% from the record high of 714.1 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14.  This total for “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 720.0 mmt is also up 9.4% from 658.2 mmt in MY 2012/13, and marginally larger than the 3rd largest crop on record of 696.0 mmt in MY 2011/12.  World wheat production was in the range of 613-687 mmt during the previous MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat production is projected to be 664.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 656.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 596.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major wheat producing countries or regions in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year, and MY 2012/13, along with any changes that have occurred in their wheat production forecasts since the August 2014 WASDE reportYear-over-year increases in wheat production are projected in Argentina (up 1.8 mmt to 12.3 mmt), the European Union (up 7.8 to 151.0 mmt), Brazil (up 1.0 to 6.3 mmt), China (up 4.1 to 126.0 mmt), Pakistan (up 0.5 to 24.5 mmt), India (up 2.3 to 95.9 mmt), Russia (up 6.9 to 59.0 mmt), and Ukraine (up 1.7 to 24.0 mmt).  Year-over-year declines in “new crop” MY 2014/15 production are projected for the United States (down 2.7 to 55.2 mmt), Australia (down 1.5 to 25.5 mmt), Canada (down 9.5 to 28.0 mmt), selected Middle Eastern Countries (down 1.4 to 17.5 mmt), North Africa (down 1.9 to 18.3 mmt), and Kazakhstan (down 0.4 to 13.5 mmt).  

In “new crop” MY 2014/15, the European Union is projected to be the largest World producer of wheat at 151.0 mmt, followed by China (126.0 mmt), India (95.9 mmt), Russia (59.0 mmt), the United States (55.2 mmt), Canada (28.0 mmt), Australia (25.2 mmt), Pakistan (24.5 mmt), Ukraine (24.0 mmt), North Africa (18.3 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern Countries (17.5 mmt), Kazakhstan (13.5 mt), Argentina (12.3 mmt), and Brazil (6.3 mmt).

II-B. World Wheat Exports by Country / Region

Global wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 154.8 mmt, down 6.9% from 166.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, while also up 12.7% from 137.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat exports are projected to be 130.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.9% from 134.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 18.7% from 109.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major wheat exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine.  However, decreased exports are projected for the United States, Australia, Canada, the EU, selected Middle Eastern countries, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, India, and Kazakhstan. 

The largest projected exporter of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the European Union (26.0 mmt), the United States (24.5 mmt), followed by Russia (22.5 mmt), Canada (22.0 mmt), Australia (19.0 mmt), Ukraine (10.0 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.5 mmt), Argentina (6.3 mmt), India (3.0 mmt), China (1.0 mmt), and Brazil (1.0).

II-C. World Wheat Imports by Country / Region

Global wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 153.0 mmt, down 2.3% from 156.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 6.1% from 144.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat imports are projected to be 148.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.4% from 152.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.3% from 140.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major wheat importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  While increased wheat imports are projected for the European Union, Pakistan, selected Middle Eastern countries, and Southeast Asia for “new crop” MY 2014/15, only marginal or no year-over-year changes in wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.   Decreased imports are projected for the Brazil, China, North Africa, and Russia. 

North Africa (24.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World wheat importer in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Selected Middle Eastern countries (20.9 mmt), Southeast Asia (16.6 mmt), the Former Soviet Union (12 countries) (7.2 mmt), Brazil (6.5 mmt), the European Union (5.5 mmt), the United States (4.6 mmt), China (2.0 mmt), Pakistan (1.5 mmt), Russia (0.7 mmt), and Canada (0.5 mmt).  China is projected to see “new crop” MY 2014/15 wheat imports decrease to 4.8 mmt from 6.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 3.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

II-D. World Wheat Domestic Feed Use by Country / Region

Global wheat domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 137.8 mmt, up 6.6% from 129.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 0.4% from 136.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat domestic feed use is projected to be 133.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 8.4% from 123.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.4% from 126.7 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of wheat domestic feed use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union, China, selected Middle Eastern countries, Russia, and Ukraine.  Declines in domestic wheat feeding are forecast for the United States, Australia, Canada, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and India, with little or no changes in Argentina, Brazil, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and Kazakhstan. 

The European Union (57.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat for domestic feeding in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (23.0 mmt), Russia (13.0 mmt), Canada (4.5 mmt) and India (4.5 mmt), the United States (4.2 mmt), Ukraine (4.0 mmt), selected Middle East countries (3.5 mmt), Australia (3.4 mmt), North Africa (2.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (2.0 mmt), Pakistan (0.7 mmt), Brazil (0.6 mmt), and Argentina (0.1 mmt). 

II-E. World Wheat Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global wheat food, seed and industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 572.3 mmt, down 0.3% from 574.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.5% from 542.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat FSI use is projected to be 544.1 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 0.4% from 546.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.7% from 514.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of wheat FSI use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop year” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in wheat FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all countries except the Ukraine – which is projected to decline marginally. 

China (101.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World FSI user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by India (89.9 mmt), the European Union (68.5 mmt), North Africa (40.5 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (33.3 mmt), the United States (28.2 mmt), Pakistan (24.0 mmt), Russia (21.5 mmt), Southeast Asia (13.8 mmt), Brazil (11.3 mmt), Ukraine (8.0 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), Canada (5.25 mmt), Kazakhstan (4.8 mmt), and Australia (3.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Wheat Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat total use of 710.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the highest amount on record, being up 1.0% from the previous record high of 703.2 mmt for “old crop” in MY 2013/14, up 4.5% from 679.4 mmt in MY 2012/13, and up from the range of 614.6-688.1 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 7).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat total use is projected to be 667.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.3% from 669.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.7% from 641.3 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of total wheat use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Sizable year-over-year increases in wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union and China, with smaller increases projected for Argentina, Brazil, selected Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, India, Russia, and Ukraine.  Decreases in total wheat usage are forecast for the United States, Australia, Canada, and North Africa.  No changes were forecast for Kazakhstan.

The European Union (125.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed closely by China (124.0 mmt), India (94.4 mmt), North Africa (42.8 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (36.8 mmt), Russia (34.5 mmt), United States (32.1 mmt), Pakistan (24.7 mmt), Southeast Asia (16.2 mmt), Ukraine (12.0 mmt), Brazil (11.9 mmt), Canada (9.8 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.8 mmt) and Australia (6.8 mmt), and Argentina (6.2 mmt).

II-G. World Wheat Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks of 196.4 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 5.3% from 186.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 11.8% from 175.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, but is down from the range of 196.9-201.7 mmt over the MY 2009/10 through 2011/12 period (Table 8 and Figure 7).  The 37 year low in World wheat ending stocks occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 129.4 mmt in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks are projected at 177.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 4.1% from 170.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 13.7% from 156.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected holdings of wheat ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, the European Union, China, selected Middle Eastern countries Pakistan,, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  Decreases are projected for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and India. 

China (63.3 mmt) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (19.0 mmt), India (16.3 mmt), the European Union (15.1), North Africa (12.4 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (11.8 mmt), Russia (8.2 mmt), Canada (6.5 mmt), Ukraine (5.7 mmt), Australia (5.2 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.5 mmt), Pakistan (2.7 mmt), Argentina (2.6 mmt), Kazakhstan (2.2 mmt), and Brazil (1.7 mmt).

II-H. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks-to-use of 27.7% for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 26.5% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 25.8% in MY 2012/13 (Table 9 and Figure 8).  After falling to minimum levels of World wheat % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2006/07 (21.7% S/U) and MY 2007/08 (21.0% S/U), World wheat % S/U was 26.56% in MY 2008/09, 31.0% in MY 2009/10, 30.3% in MY 2010/11, 28.6% in MY 2012/13, 25.6% in MY 2012/13, and 26.9% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is now projected to be 27.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  The 37 year low in World wheat ending stocks-to-use occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 21.0% in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks-to-use are projected at 22.0% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 21.2% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and 20.8% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected wheat percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, the European Union, China, selected Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  Decreases are projected for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and India. 

China (50.6%) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks-to-use in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (33.4%), selected Middle Eastern countries (31.6%), North Africa (28.6%), Ukraine (26.0%), Argentina (20.9%), Canada (20.6%), Southeast Asia (20.6%), Australia (20.2%), India (16.7%), Kazakhstan (16.5%), Russia (14.5%), Brazil (13.2%), Pakistan (10.5), and the European Union (10.0%).

Similar to the relationship between U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average wheat prices (see Figure 6) since MY 1973/74, a negative market relationship has existed between U.S. wheat season average cash prices and World wheat % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “structural jump” after MY 2009/10 (Figure 8).  Larger World wheat supply-demand balances (i.e., higher percentages of ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. wheat prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher U.S. wheat prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 6 earlier, U.S. wheat prices in Figure 8 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).   Whereas the minimum U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 13.2% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2007/08, the historic minimum in World wheat percent stocks-to-use occurred in that same marketing year at 21.0%.  Since that time, World wheat ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 25.5% in MY 2012/13.

Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15 (Sept. 11th USDA WASDE & KSU 2014/15 Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Higher Exports***

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

Planted Area (million acres)

63.193

59.168

53.593

54.409

55.666

56.156

56.474

56.474

Harvested Area (million acres)

55.699

49.893

47.619

45.705

48.921

45.157

46.240

46.240

% Harvested/Planted Area

88.1%

84.3%

88.9%

84.0%

87.9%

80.4%

81.9%

81.9%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.9

44.5

46.3

43.7

46.3

47.2

43.9

43.9

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks

306

657

976

862

743

718

590

590

Production

2,499

2,218

2,207

1,999

2,266

2,130

2,030

2,030

Imports

127

119

97

112

123

168

170

170

Total Supply

2,932

2,993

3,279

2,974

3,131

3,016

2,789

2,789

 

Food Use

927

919

926

941

945

951

960

960

Seed Use

78

69

71

76

73

77

76

76

Exports

1,015

879

1,291

1,051

1,012

1,176

900

1,050

Feed & Residual Use

255

150

129

162

384

222

155

155

Total Use

2,275

2,018

2,417

2,231

2,414

2,426

2,091

2,241

 

Ending Stocks

657

976

862

743

718

590

698

548

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

28.87%

48.36%

35.66%

33.30%

29.74%

24.32%

33.38%

24.45%

U.S. Wheat Avg. Farm Price ($/bushel)

$6.78

$4.87

$5.70

$7.24

 

$7.77

 

$6.87

$5.50-$6.30 ($5.90)

$6.25-$7.25 ($6.75)


 

Figure 1. U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage – All Winter, Spring & Durum Wheat Classes (1973-2014)

Figure 2. U.S. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973-2014)

Figure 3. U.S. All Wheat Yield Trend (1973-2013), USDA 2014 Projection, & KSU 2014 Trend  
(September 11, 2014)

Text Box: USDA 2014 Yield = 43.9 bu/ac
KSU-trend: 45.8 bu/ac 
10 year Min. = 38.6 bu/ac
10 year Max. = 47.2 bu/ac
 

Figure 4. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use and Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “New Crop” MY 2014/15

                    (September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 5. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Cash Prices: MY 1973/74 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15      
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report & KSU forecasts for MY 2014/15)

Figure 6. U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15)     

Text Box: KSU 
“High Exports” 
MY 2014/15
24.5% S/U, 
$6.75 /bu
Text Box: USDA 
“New Crop”
MY 2014/15
33.4% S/U
$5.90
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 7. World Wheat Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15                      
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Wheat Usage
ñ11.7 mmt/yr 
(+1.9%/yr) 
since 2007/08
Text Box: Production
ñ13.4 mmt/yr (+2.2%/yr) 
since 2007/08
 
Text Box: End Stocks
196.4 mmt in “new crop” 2014/15
 
Up 67.4 mmt (+52%) since 
37 year low in 
MY 2007/08
Text Box: Wheat Trade
133-166 mmt since 2008/09
 
154.8 mmt in MY 2014/15

Figure 8. U.S. Wheat Price vs % World Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2014/15)

Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: USDA 2014/15:
27.7% S/U, $5.90 /bu
Text Box: Cross Market Price Support
Tight corn stocks & high corn prices since MY 2006/07 had been supporting wheat prices   – especially in the 2011/12 & 2013/14 marketing years
 
 

 

Table 2. World Wheat Production Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Production: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Wheat Production: August 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               September Less August  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         September of August  2014

September Wheat Production: Old crop 2013/14          

August  Wheat Production: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August  Wheat  Production             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

719.95

716.09

3.86

100.5%

714.05

714.07

(0.02)

5.90

100.8%

658.16

61.79

109.4%

United States

55.24

55.24

0.00

100.0%

57.96

57.96

0.00

(2.72)

95.3%

61.67

(6.43)

89.6%

Total Foreign

664.71

660.85

3.86

100.6%

656.09

656.11

(0.02)

8.62

101.3%

596.49

68.22

111.4%

Major Exporters

216.77

214.37

2.40

101.1%

218.15

218.15

0.00

(1.38)

99.4%

193.21

23.56

112.2%

Argentina

12.30

12.50

(0.20)

98.4%

10.50

10.50

0.00

1.80

117.1%

9.30

3.00

132.3%

Australia

25.50

26.00

(0.50)

98.1%

27.01

27.01

0.00

(1.51)

94.4%

22.86

2.64

111.5%

Canada

28.00

28.00

0.00

100.0%

37.50

37.50

0.00

(9.50)

74.7%

27.21

0.79

102.9%

European Union - 28 Countries

150.97

147.87

3.10

102.1%

143.13

143.13

0.00

7.84

105.5%

133.85

17.12

112.8%

Major Importers

197.18

197.88

(0.70)

99.6%

194.45

194.47

(0.02)

2.73

101.4%

187.29

9.89

105.3%

Brazil

6.30

6.30

0.00

100.0%

5.30

5.30

0.00

1.00

118.9%

4.38

1.92

143.8%

China

126.00

126.00

0.00

100.0%

121.93

121.93

0.00

4.07

103.3%

121.02

4.98

104.1%

Selected Middle East

17.53

17.63

(0.10)

99.4%

18.92

18.94

(0.02)

(1.39)

92.7%

17.18

0.35

102.0%

North Africa

18.25

18.85

(0.60)

96.8%

20.12

20.12

0.00

(1.87)

90.7%

17.32

0.93

105.4%

Pakistan

24.50

24.50

0.00

100.0%

24.00

24.00

0.00

0.50

102.1%

23.30

1.20

105.2%

Southeast Asia

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

India

95.85

95.85

0.00

100.0%

93.51

93.51

0.00

2.34

102.5%

94.88

0.97

101.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

112.23

110.17

2.06

101.9%

103.87

103.87

0.00

8.36

108.0%

77.80

34.43

144.3%

Russia

59.00

59.00

0.00

100.0%

52.09

52.09

0.00

6.91

113.3%

37.72

21.28

156.4%

Kazakhstan

13.50

13.50

0.00

100.0%

13.94

13.94

0.00

(0.44)

96.8%

9.84

3.66

137.2%

Ukraine

24.00

22.00

2.00

109.1%

22.28

22.28

0.00

1.72

107.7%

15.76

8.24

152.3%

 

Table 3. World Wheat Export Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Exports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Wheat Exports: August  2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               September Less August  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         September of August  2014

September Wheat Exports: Old crop 2013/14          

August  Wheat Exports: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August  Wheat  Exports for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

154.83

151.80

3.03

102.0%

166.31

165.27

1.04

(11.48)

93.1%

137.36

17.47

112.7%

United States

24.49

25.17

(0.68)

97.3%

32.01

32.01

0.00

(7.52)

76.5%

27.54

(3.05)

88.9%

Total Foreign

130.34

126.63

3.71

102.9%

134.29

133.26

1.03

(3.95)

97.1%

109.82

20.52

118.7%

Major Exporters

73.30

71.50

1.80

102.5%

76.67

75.80

0.87

(3.37)

95.6%

63.85

9.45

114.8%

Argentina

6.30

6.50

(0.20)

96.9%

2.00

2.00

0.00

4.30

315.0%

3.55

2.75

177.5%

Australia

19.00

19.00

0.00

100.0%

19.50

19.50

0.00

(0.50)

97.4%

18.66

0.34

101.8%

Canada

22.00

21.00

1.00

104.8%

23.24

22.80

0.44

(1.24)

94.7%

18.97

3.03

116.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

26.00

25.00

1.00

104.0%

31.93

31.50

0.43

(5.93)

81.4%

22.68

3.32

114.6%

Major Importers

5.84

5.34

0.50

109.4%

5.26

4.90

0.36

0.58

111.0%

6.47

(0.63)

90.3%

Brazil

1.00

0.50

0.50

200.0%

0.10

0.10

0.00

0.90

1000.0%

1.58

(0.58)

63.3%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

0.89

0.00

0.11

112.4%

0.97

0.03

103.1%

Selected Middle East

0.53

0.53

0.00

100.0%

0.58

0.51

0.07

(0.05)

91.4%

0.69

(0.16)

76.8%

North Africa

0.48

0.48

0.00

100.0%

0.49

0.53

(0.04)

(0.01)

98.0%

0.61

(0.13)

78.7%

Pakistan

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.75

0.75

0.00

(0.05)

93.3%

0.85

(0.15)

82.4%

Southeast Asia

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.86

0.86

0.00

(0.02)

97.7%

0.77

0.07

109.1%

India

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

5.90

5.90

0.00

(2.90)

50.8%

6.82

(3.82)

44.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

39.54

38.06

1.48

103.9%

37.06

37.25

(0.19)

2.48

106.7%

25.38

14.16

155.8%

Russia

22.50

22.50

0.00

100.0%

18.50

18.50

0.00

4.00

121.6%

11.29

11.21

199.3%

Kazakhstan

6.50

6.00

0.50

108.3%

8.10

8.40

(0.30)

(1.60)

80.2%

6.29

0.21

103.3%

Ukraine

10.00

9.00

1.00

111.1%

9.76

9.65

0.11

0.24

102.5%

7.19

2.81

139.1%

 

Table 4. World Wheat Import Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Imports: New Crop 2014/15     September 2014

Wheat Imports: August  2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:               September Less August  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         September of August  2014

September Wheat Imports: Old crop 2013/14          

August  Wheat Imports: Old crop 2013/14

September Less August  Wheat  Imports for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

152.95

149.87

3.08

102.1%

156.61

156.48

0.13

(3.66)

97.7%

144.22

8.73

106.1%

United States

4.63

4.35

0.28

106.4%

4.59

4.59

0.00

0.04

100.9%

3.34

1.29

138.6%

Total Foreign

148.33

145.52

2.81

101.9%

152.02

151.90

0.12

(3.69)

97.6%

140.87

7.46

105.3%

Major Exporters

6.14

6.14

0.00

100.0%

4.58

4.50

0.08

1.56

134.1%

5.91

0.23

103.9%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Australia

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.15

0.15

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.14

0.01

107.1%

Canada

0.48

0.48

0.00

100.0%

0.44

0.44

0.00

0.04

109.1%

0.48

0.00

100.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

5.50

5.50

0.00

100.0%

3.98

3.90

0.08

1.52

138.2%

5.28

0.22

104.2%

Major Importers

81.25

78.28

2.97

103.8%

87.20

86.83

0.37

(5.95)

93.2%

79.47

1.78

102.2%

Brazil

6.50

6.50

0.00

100.0%

7.00

7.00

0.00

(0.50)

92.9%

7.36

(0.86)

88.3%

China

2.00

2.00

0.00

100.0%

6.77

6.77

0.00

(4.77)

29.5%

2.96

(0.96)

67.6%

Selected Middle East

20.90

20.38

0.52

102.6%

20.66

20.62

0.04

0.24

101.2%

20.86

0.04

100.2%

North Africa

23.95

22.80

1.15

105.0%

25.22

24.85

0.37

(1.27)

95.0%

22.06

1.89

108.6%

Pakistan

1.50

0.50

1.00

300.0%

0.39

0.40

(0.01)

1.11

384.6%

0.05

1.45

3000.0%

Southeast Asia

16.60

16.60

0.00

100.0%

16.39

16.41

(0.02)

0.21

101.3%

15.76

0.84

105.3%

India

0.02

0.02

0.00

100.0%

0.03

0.03

0.00

(0.01)

66.7%

0.02

0.00

100.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

7.17

7.33

(0.16)

97.8%

7.55

7.67

(0.12)

(0.38)

95.0%

7.23

(0.06)

99.2%

Russia

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

1.00

1.00

0.00

(0.30)

70.0%

1.17

(0.47)

59.8%

Kazakhstan

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.00

100.0%

Ukraine

0.05

0.10

(0.05)

50.0%

0.07

0.10

(0.03)