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Grain Market Outlook

Wheat Market Outlook in November 2014

November 20, 2014


Summary

Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on November 10, 2014, U.S. wheat market prices have generally responded in a neutral-to-positive manner to projections of marginally larger World wheat ending stocks and ending stocks-to-use, but lower U.S. domestic supply-demand balances.  The USDA projected for the “new crop” 2014/2015 marketing year that a) World wheat production, supplies, and total use would be at record high levels, b) World wheat export trade would be 6.6% lower than a year ago but still the third highest on record, and c) World wheat ending stocks and percent ending stocks-to-use would be at their highest levels in three marketing years, although still less than during the 2009/2010 through 2011/2012 period.  Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected to be down to the lowest levels in four years due to limited demand for U.S. wheat exports and for domestic livestock wheat feeding.  

The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states.  Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet emerged to the degree that the “large crop-over supply” situation in World wheat markets has been affected.  That said, there are preliminary concerns emerging about dry wheat production conditions in Australia, as well as crop quality problems in parts of Europe.  United States’ wheat exports have been reduced by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar.  The wheat market will now likely focus on weekly export sales and shipments, the condition of U.S. and foreign crops in the field, and the upcoming January 12, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production Annual Summary report

USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA projected lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat total use, an increase in ending stocks and % stocks-to-use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15 versus a year ago.  The USDA’s projected MY 2014/15 scenario is: 56.8 million acres (ma) planted, 46.4 ma harvested, 43.7 bu/ac yield, a 2.026 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop (down 9 mb), 2.785 bb total supplies (down 10 mb), 925 mb exports, 2.141 bb total use, 644 mb ending stocks (down 10 mb), 30.1% ending stocks-to-use (down from 30.6% last month), and a forecast U.S. price of $5.90 per bu. (range of $5.65 to $6.15) – narrower by $0.10 /bu on each end of the price range from the October WASDE. 

KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply-demand balances and prices are essentially equal to the USDA’s except for the possibility of either “Lower Export” or “Higher Export” scenarios, which are as follows:  a) “Lower Export” Scenario: 10% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 125 mb less U.S. wheat exports.  This would result in 800 mb exports, 2.016 bb total use, 769 mb ending stocks, 38.15% S/U, and a forecast price of $5.00-5.60 /bu (midpoint of $5.30 – down from $5.90 for the USDA); and b) “Higher Export” Scenario: 10% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 125 mb more U.S. wheat exports.  This would result in 1.050 bb exports, 2.266 bb total use, 519 mb ending stocks, 22.9% S/U, and a forecast price of $7.00 /bu (up from the USDA midpoint of $5.90).   

USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 905.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 889.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 854.1 mmt in MY 2012/13.  Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 192.9 mmt (27.1% S/U) are up from 185.7 mmt (26.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 174.8 mmt (25.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13.  For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World wheat stocks minimum of 129.0 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08.  Year-over-year increases are projected for wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for Argentina (+3.8 mmt), Brazil (+0.9 mmt), Russia (+4.0 mmt), and Ukraine (+0.24 mmt), with decreases forecast for the U.S. (-6.8 mmt), Australia (-1.1 mmt), Canada (-1.2 mmt), the EU (-3.9 mmt), India (-2.9 mmt), and Kazakhstan (-2.8 mmt).  


I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook

I-A. November 2014 USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections

On November 10, 2014 small changes were made in projected 2014 U.S. wheat acreage, yields, and production in the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) November 2014 Crop Production report.  The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) also released its November 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply-demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15.   The “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015. 

I-B. Kansas Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends

Since market highs in early May 2014 through mid-September, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures trended sharply lower as a) domestic U.S. hard red winter wheat crop prospects improved with adequate moisture and cooler temperatures in the Great Plains, b) adequate-to-favorable weather occurred in the U.S. eastern Corn Belt for at least “decent” 2014 U.S. soft red winter wheat production, c) major crop production problems were largely avoided for other major wheat export competitors, and d) the ongoing geopolitical conflict between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region did not disrupt the flow of Black Sea wheat exports into World wheat markets to a significant degree. 

DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices responded to the release of the November USDA reports by first trading lower on the day of the report, and then trending higher.  DECEMBER 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices opened at $5.70 on Monday, November 10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low-high range of $5.65 ¼ to $5.77 during the session before closing $0.03 ¾ higher for the day at $5.73 /bu (Figure 1).   Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures prices have risen moderately, rising from a low of $5.69 on November 11th up to a high of $6.12 ½ on Friday, November 14th before closing at $6.02 ¼ on Wednesday, November 20th

Figure 1. DEC 2014 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)

JULY 2015 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices opened at $5.72 ¾ on Monday, November 10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low-high range of $5.70 to $5.81 during the session before closing $0.04 ¾ higher for the day at $5.77 ½ /bu (Figure 1).   Since then, JULY 2015 Kansas City wheat efutures prices have also risen moderately, rising from a low of $5.73 ¼ on November 11th up to a high of $6.16 ½ on Friday, November 14th before closing at $6.09 ½ on Wednesday, November 20th

The U.S. Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid-July 2011, but has trended all that much more sharply higher since July 1, 2014 (Figure 2).  After trading at 75.91 on July 1, the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 82.97 on November 6th.  This trend is significant to the U.S. wheat market, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars which they would in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports.  Although this is not the only factor that is negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports at this time, it is a very important one – working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative in World wheat trade

Figure 2. JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 11/14/2014)

 

I-C. U.S. Wheat Production

U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production

In its November 10th Crop Production report the USDA made no changes in regards to 2014 U.S. wheat planted acreage, but lowered 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acres, yields, and production both in aggregate and by specific wheat class (i.e., winter wheat, other spring wheat, and durum). 

The USDA’s current projections are for 2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage to be 56.822 million acres (ma), up from 56.236 ma in 2013, 55.294 ma in 2012, 54.277 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 3-4).   In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 46.381 ma, up from 45.332 ma in 2013, down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011.  The 2014 proportion of harvested-to-planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 81.6%, up from 80.6% in 2013, but down from 88.2% in 2012, and 84.2% in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4).  The proportion of harvested-to-planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.

The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 43.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down 0.1 bu/ac from the USDA’s October projection, and is down from the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, the previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 and 46.1 bu/ac in 2010, and from 43.6 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 5).   

Taking these harvested acreage and yield projections together, the USDA forecast 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 2.026 billion bushels (bb) – down 9 mb from October (Table 1 and Figure 6).   However, the 2014 projection of 2.026 bb is still down from 2.135 bb in 2013, and 2.252 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011.   

I-D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies

Total supplies of 2.785 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2014/15, resulting from beginning stocks of 590 mb, projected 2014 production of 2.026 bb, and projected imports of 170 mb (Table 1 and Figure 6).   Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.785 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down 10 mb from the October WASDE report, and are down to the lowest amount of U.S. wheat supplies since the 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years.  Over the last eight (8) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.985 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.967 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.118 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.021 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 2.785 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 590 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down 17.8% from 718 mb in beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 743 mb in MY 2013/14.  This is the lowest level of U.S. wheat beginning stocks since 306 mb in MY 2008/09 (following the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that developed in MY 2007/08).  This projected decline in U.S. wheat ending stocks into the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is a continuance of the pattern of steadily tighter U.S. wheat supplies over the last four marketing years (since the recent high in beginning stocks of 976 mb in MY 2010/11).  

Projected U.S. wheat imports of 170 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the highest amount on record, being up marginally from the previous record high of 169 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  Since MY 1973/74 the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10. 

Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable location / logistics.  Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last two years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports.  Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu units) in “old crop” MY 2013/14.  The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.1 mmt), 1991 (32.0 mmt), and 1986 (31.4 mmt).  Projected Canadian wheat production in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year is lower – down to 27.5 mmt (1.011 bb).  This amount of Canadian wheat production is larger than the most recent 10 year average of 26.5 mmt (974 mb).  

I-E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category

Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been trending consistently higher over time due to steady growth in the U.S. population and associated increases in demand for processed wheat products.  This projected amount of 960 mb in food use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 951 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, from 945 mb in MY 2012/13, and from 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 76 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down marginally from 77 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and compares to 73 mb in MY 2012/13, and 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed over time, driven primarily by a) the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from on-farm and commercial seed sources), and b) the need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover possible U.S. seed wheat production shortfalls from year to year. 

Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down sharply from 1.176 bb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, and would be the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY 2009/10 (Table 1 and Figure 7).  The anticipation of lower available supplies of U.S. hard red winter wheat for export sales in “new crop” MY 2014/15, along with the likelihood of more than adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are both factors in this lower U.S. export projection.  That said, the risk of lower “new crop” MY 2014/15 Australian wheat production with the forecast onset of an El Nino weather pattern in coming months, as well as the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine), and potential dry or otherwise adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas are factors that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the later stages of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  

Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through November 13th – the 24th week of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat – totaled 406.7 mb, which is 44.0% of the USDA’s projected “new crop” MY 2014/15 exports of 925 mb with 46.2% (24 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed.  “New crop” MY 2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015.  United States’ export shipments will need to average 18.5 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s November WASDE projection of 925 mb.  Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 11.6 mb and 6.6 mb during the weeks ending November 6th and 13th, respectively, were “behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 925 bb in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year.  (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report - http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html).

In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 187.9 mb in U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (that had not yet been shipped as of November 13th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 594.6 mb (i.e., 406.7 mb shipped plus 187.9 mb forward sales with rounding).  This amounts to 64.3% of the USDA’s projection of 925 mb for “new crop” MY 2014/15 with 46.2% of the marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 24 of 52 weeks). 

If a sharp, unexpected increase in U.S. wheat exports were to occur during the remainder of the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, U.S. wheat price prospects could improve considerably as U.S. wheat supply-demand balances would tighten.  The potential exists during the remainder of “new crop” MY 2014/15 for wheat production problems in major wheat producing and exporting countries such as Australia, Russia, Ukraine, parts of the European Union, Canada, Argentina, and even the United States.  The potential impact on U.S. wheat supply-demand balances and prices for “new crop” 2014/15 will be discussed in the “KSU Forecast” section below.  As noted in an earlier section, the higher value of the U.S. Dollar is being cited as a factor that has been limiting U.S. wheat exports (see Figure 2 and accompanying discussion).

Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb for “old crop” MY 2013/14, the recent high of 370 mb in MY 2012/13 (down 14 mb), and from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 6).  Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has trended lower across “old crop” MY 2013/14 and “new crop” MY 2014/15 due to sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which lead to more abundant competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies at lower market prices than during the “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.  Subsequently, over the last two U.S. wheat marketing years there has been and is now lower cross-market demand for U.S. wheat in U.S. livestock feed rations.

Total U.S. Wheat Use:  Summing the categories together, total use of U.S. wheat for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 2.141 bb, would be the 3rd smallest amount of U.S. wheat total usage since MY 2004/05) (Figure 6).  U.S. wheat total use has varied from 2.235 bb in MY 2014/15, 2.154 bb in MY 2005/06, 2.045 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.315 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.275 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.017 bb in MY 2009/10, 2.417 bb in MY 2010/11 (the 2nd largest amount during the 11 year period), 2.230 bb in MY 2011/12, 2.400 bb in MY 2012/13 (the 3rd largest amount during the 11 year period), to the largest amount in this period of 2.432 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and finally to 2.141 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  Total usage of U.S. wheat in MY 2012/13 and “old crop” MY 2013/14 were boosted by higher than usual livestock feeding of wheat in reaction to extremely tight U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies – which in turn led to substitutionary demand for U.S. wheat in feed rations.

I-F. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks, % Stocks-to-Use & Prices

United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year were projected to be 644 mb, down 10 mb from October (Table 1 and Figure 6).  This amount of U.S. wheat ending stocks is still markedly larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing year in recent years.  Over the last eight marketing years, U.S. wheat ending stocks were a record low 306 mb in MY 2007/08, 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 862 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY 2011/12, 718 mb in MY 2012/13, an estimated 590 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 644 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.

Percent (%) ending stocks-to-use for U.S. wheat of 30.1% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down marginally from 30.6% in October, and up from 24.3% in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 and Figures 7-8).  This projection of 30.1% U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is comparable to the historic 67 year low of 13.2% in MY 2007/08, 28.9% in MY 2008/09, 48.4% in MY 2009/10, 35.7% in MY 2010/11, 33.3% in MY 2011/12, 29.9% in MY 2012/13, and 24.3% for “old crop” MY 2013/14.   

U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $5.65-$6.15 per bushel (“/bu”) (midpoint = $5.90 /bu) – narrower by $0.10 /bu on both ends of the price range from the October WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 7-8).  Since the record tight U.S. and World wheat ending stocks marketing year of 2007/08, U.S. wheat prices have varied in the following manner over time: $6.48 per bushel in MY 2007/08, $6.78 in MY 2008/09, $4.87 in MY 2009/10, $5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, the record high of $7.77 in MY 2012/13, $6.87 in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and now a forecast range of $5.65-$6.15 /bu (midpoint = $5.90 /bu) in “new crop” MY 2014/15.     

An indicator of inflation that has occurred in U.S. wheat prices is found by comparing the situation in the historical “tight stocks” year of MY 2007/08 with “new crop” MY 2014/15.  In MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use were a record low 13.22% with an average U.S. wheat price of $6.48 per bushel – at that time a record high.  In comparison, in “new crop” MY 2014/15, U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are estimated to be 30.08% S/U – which is 228% of 13.22% S/U in MY 2007/08 (or 1.28 time higher).  However, U.S. wheat prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be only moderately lower in the range of $5.65-$6.15 (midpoint = $5.90 /bu).  Similarly, in MY 2012/13 U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use of 29.74% are estimated to be 225% higher (1.25 times larger) than in 2007/08 (13.22%), while U.S. wheat prices are still 20% higher at a record high of $7.77 /bu.  The existence of higher prices for U.S. wheat while U.S. wheat ending percent (%) stocks–to–use measures are also higher are indicators that inflation has occurred in U.S. wheat prices over time.

I-G. KSU U.S. Wheat “Lower & Higher Export” Supply-Demand & Price Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2014/15

The primary factor that could change U.S. wheat price prospects for the worse or better at this time in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year would be either a sharp and significant decrease or increase in U.S. wheat exports.  There is still a reasonable chance that this could occur, given uncertainty regarding wheat production prospects for the remainder of “new crop” MY 2014/15 (i.e., through May 31, 2015 and beyond) in other major World wheat exporting and using countries such as Australia, the Black Sea Region, Canada, Argentina, Europe, China, the United States, and elsewhere.  

KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage, yields and production (all equal to those of the USDA) for both the “Lower Exports” and “Higher Exports” scenario are found in Table 1.  Probability-weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. wheat average prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 for the these two alternative U.S. wheat market scenario based on projections of U.S. wheat % ending stocks-to-use are provided Table 1.  Specifics are provided below.

A.     Lower Exports” Scenario: Exports = 800 mb, 38.1% Stx/Use, $5.30/bu – 10% Probability

In this “Lower Exports” scenario, it is estimated that at this time there is approximately a 10% chance of U.S. wheat acreage, yields, production, and non-export usage being essentially equal to USDA projections in the November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE report with the exception of 125 mb lower exports, which leads to lower total use, higher ending stocks and higher % ending stocks-to-use, and to lower projected prices (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

Under this scenario, 2014 U.S. wheat total supplies and U.S. food, seed, livestock feeding, and residual use are all unchanged from the November USDA WASDE projection for “new crop” MY 2014/15.  However, a decline of 125 mb from the 925 mb USDA projection down to 800 mb, leads to a decline in U.S. wheat total usage of 2.016 bb (down 125 mb), and ending stocks of 769 mb (up 125 mb from the USDA).  Consequently, % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 38.1% (up from 30.08% projected by the USDA). Given these forecast assumptions, U.S. wheat average prices are projected by KSU to be in the range of $5.00-$5.60 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $5.30). 

This KSU price mid-point projection for the “Lower Export” scenario of $5.30 /bu within a range of $5.00-$5.60 /bu compares to the USDA’s “new crop” MY 2014/15 projection of $5.65-$6.15 (mid-point = $5.90 /bu), with the midpoint of the KSU “Lower Export” forecast of $5.30 being below the lower end of the USDA forecast price range (i.e., below $5.65 /bu).  To accomplish this, U.S. wheat prices would have to decline sharply through the end of the current “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to overcome the “early season sales price weighting” effect that has already taken place. 

B.      Higher Exports” Scenario: Exports = 1.050 bb, 22.9% Stx/Use, $7.00/bu – 10% Probability

In this “Higher Exports” outcome scenario, it is estimated that at this time there is approximately a 10% chance of U.S. wheat acreage, yields, production, and non-export usage being essentially equal to USDA projections in the November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE report with the exception of 125 mb higher exports, which leads to higher total use, lower ending stocks and lower % ending stocks-to-use, and to higher projected prices (Table 1 and Figure 7). 

Under this scenario, 2014 U.S. wheat total supplies and U.S. food, seed, livestock feeding, and residual use are all unchanged from the November USDA WASDE projection for “new crop” MY 2014/15.  However, an increase of 125 mb from the 925 mb USDA projection up to 1.050 bb, leads to an increase in U.S. wheat total usage of 2.266 bb (up 125 mb), and ending stocks of 519 mb (down 125 mb from the USDA).  Consequently, % ending stocks-to-use are projected to be 22.9% (down from 30.08% projected by the USDA). Given these forecast assumptions, U.S. wheat average prices are projected by KSU to be in the range of $6.70-$7.30 per bushel for “new crop” MY 2014/15 (midpoint = $7.00). 

This KSU price mid-point projection for the “Higher Export” scenario of $7.00 /bu within a range of $6.70-$7.30 /bu compares to the USDA’s “new crop” MY 2014/15 projection of $5.65-$6.15 (mid-point = $5.90 /bu), with the midpoint of the KSU “Higher Export” forecast of $7.00 being above the upper end of the USDA forecast price range (i.e., above $6.15 /bu).  Converse to the earlier “Lower Export” scenario, U.S. wheat prices would have to rise sharply through the end of the current “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year to overcome the “early season sales price weighting” effect that has already taken place. 

II. World Wheat Supply-Demand Trends

The USDA forecast that World wheat production in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will be up 0.8% from the “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year that ended on May 31, 2014, and up 9.4% from two years ago in MY 2012/13.  World wheat total supplies in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are forecast to be 905.6 mmt, up 1.8% from 889.5 mmt a year ago, and up 6.0% from 854.1 mmt two years ago.  Given these changes, World wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to increase 1.3% from “old crop” MY 2013/14, and to be up 4.9% from MY 2012/13.  World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to increase by 3.9% from a year earlier in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and by 10.4% from two years ago in MY 2012/13.  

Uncertainty still exists for the World wheat market supply-demand balance situation that will ultimately occur in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (i.e., over the June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015 period).  However, absent any major 2014 wheat production shortfalls or other unanticipated geopolitical conflicts or disruptive economic problems among major world wheat producers and exporters, if the USDA’s November 10th WASDE report projection holds true, wheat prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15 will likely be lower than the price levels that occurred in “old crop” MY 2013/14.   

Wheat producing areas of the World from which annual variations in wheat production have had a notable impact on wheat markets (i.e., caused market volatility) in the last several years include a) Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the Black Sea Region, b) Australia, c) the United States, d) Canada, e) the wheat production regions in the European Union, and f) China.  At this time World wheat markets either are aware of possible what production problems that could develop in a) Australia (due to intensification of the El Nino weather pattern), b) Kazakhstan, c) Canada, d) potential U.S. winter wheat establishment and cold weather problems, and e) elsewhere.   In this and each other marketing year the potential exists for production and/or supply problems to develop in World wheat production areas sometime during the remainder of 2014 and on into 2015 that are of a magnitude that World wheat markets could be significantly impacted.     

II-A. World Wheat Production by Country / Region

Projected World wheat production of 719.9 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be the largest crop on record, being up 0.8% from the previous record high of 714.7 mmt for “old crop” MY 2013/14.  This total for “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 719.9 mmt is also up 9.4% from 657.9 mmt in MY 2012/13, and marginally larger than the 3rd largest crop on record of 695.8 mmt in MY 2011/12.  World wheat production was in the range of 613-687 mmt during the previous MY 2007/08-MY 2010/11 period (Table 2 and Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat production is projected to be 664.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down from 656.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 596.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 2 provides a projected list of the major wheat producing countries or regions in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year, and MY 2012/13, along with any changes that have occurred in their wheat production forecasts since the October WASDE report.  Year-over-year increases in wheat production are projected in Argentina (up 1.5 mmt to 12.0 mmt), the European Union (up 12.2 to 155.4 mmt), Brazil (up 1.0 to 6.3 mmt), China (up 4.1 to 126.0 mmt), Pakistan (up 1.0 to 25.0 mmt), India (up 2.4 to 95.9 mmt), Russia (up 6.9 to 59.0 mmt), and Ukraine (up 2.2 to 24.50 mmt).  Year-over-year declines in “new crop” MY 2014/15 production are projected for the United States (down 3.0 to 55.12 mmt), Australia (down 3.0 to 24.0 mmt), Canada (down 10.0 to 27.5 mmt), selected Middle Eastern Countries (down 1.4 to 17.5 mmt), North Africa (down 2.9 to 16.8 mmt), and Kazakhstan (down 1.9 to 12.0 mmt).  

In “new crop” MY 2014/15, the European Union is projected to be the largest World producer of wheat at 155.4 mmt, followed by China (126.0 mmt), India (95.9 mmt), Russia (59.0 mmt), the United States (55.1 mmt), Canada (27.5 mmt), Pakistan (25.0 mmt), Ukraine (24.5 mmt), Australia (24.0 mmt), Selected Middle Eastern Countries (17.5 mmt), North Africa (16.8 mmt), Kazakhstan (12.0 mt), Argentina (12.0 mmt), and Brazil (6.3 mmt).

II-B. World Wheat Exports by Country / Region

Global wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be a 154.98 mmt, down 6.6% from 165.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, while also up 12.8% from 137.4 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 3).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat exports are projected to be 129.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 3.0% from 133.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 18.1% from 109.8 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 3 provides a projected list of the major wheat exporting countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14 and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine.  However, decreased exports are projected for the United States, Australia, Canada, the EU, selected Middle Eastern countries, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, India, and Kazakhstan. 

The largest projected exporter of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the European Union (26.0 mmt), the United States (25.2 mmt), followed by Russia (22.5 mmt), Canada (22.0 mmt), Australia (17.5 mmt), Ukraine (10.0 mmt), Kazakhstan (5.3 mmt), Argentina (6.0 mmt), India (3.0 mmt), China (1.0 mmt), and Brazil (1.0).

II-C. World Wheat Imports by Country / Region

Global wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 153.4 mmt, down 2.0% from 156.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 6.4% from 144.2 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 4).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat imports are projected to be 148.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 2.1% from 152.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.6% from 140.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 4 provides a projected list of the major wheat importing countries or regions in the World in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  While increased wheat imports are projected for the European Union, selected Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan, and Southeast Asia, and Kazakhstan for “new crop” MY 2014/15, only marginal or no year-over-year changes in wheat imports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Ukraine and Brazil.   Decreased imports are projected for China, North Africa, and Russia. 

North Africa (23.3 mmt) is projected to be the largest World wheat importer in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by Selected Middle Eastern countries (21.1 mmt), Southeast Asia (17.0 mmt), Brazil (7.0 mmt), the Former Soviet Union (12 countries) (6.9 mmt), the European Union (5.0 mmt), the United States (4.6 mmt), China (1.7 mmt), Pakistan (0.7 mmt), Canada (0.5 mmt)Russia (0.2 mmt), Kazakhstan (0.2 mmt), and Australia (0.15 mmt).  China is projected to see “new crop” MY 2014/15 wheat imports decrease to 1.7 mmt from 6.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and down from 3.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

II-D. World Wheat Domestic Feed Use by Country / Region

Global wheat domestic feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 139.9 mmt, up 7.4% from 130.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 1.9% from 137.3 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 5).   Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat domestic feed use is projected to be 135.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 8.8% from 124.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 6.3% from 127.0 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 5 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World terms of wheat domestic feed use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat feed use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union, Brazil, China, selected Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan, Russia, and Ukraine.  Declines in domestic wheat feeding are forecast for the United States, Australia, Canada, North Africa, and India, with little or no changes for Argentina, Southeast Asia, and Kazakhstan. 

The European Union (57.5 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat for domestic feeding in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by China (23.0 mmt), Russia (13.0 mmt), the United States (4.9 mmt), Canada and India (4.5 mmt), selected Middle East countries (4.02 mmt), Ukraine (4.0 mmt), Australia (3.4 mmt), Southeast Asia (2.5 mmt), North Africa (2.0 mmt), Kazakhstan (1.9 mmt), Pakistan (1.2 mmt), Brazil (1.0 mmt), and Argentina (0.1 mmt). 

II-E. World Wheat Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) Use by Country / Region

Global wheat food, seed and industrial (FSI) use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a 572.8 mmt, down 0.1% from 573.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.7% from 542.0 mmt in MY 2012/13 (Table 6).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat FSI use is projected to be 544.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, down 0.2% from 545.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.8% from 514.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 6 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of wheat FSI use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop year” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases or no changes in wheat FSI use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for all countries except North Africa and the Ukraine – which are projected to decline marginally. 

China (101.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World FSI user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by India (90.0 mmt), the European Union (68.5 mmt), North Africa (39.5 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (33.6 mmt), the United States (28.2 mmt), Pakistan (23.9 mmt), Russia (22.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (14.0 mmt), Brazil (11.3 mmt), Ukraine (8.0 mmt), Argentina (6.1 mmt), Canada (5.3 mmt), Kazakhstan (4.8 mmt), and Australia (3.4 mmt). 

II-F. World Wheat Total Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat total use of 712.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is the highest amount on record, being up 1.3% from the previous record high of 703.8 mmt for “old crop” in MY 2013/14, up 4.9% from 679.4 mmt in MY 2012/13, and up from the range of 614.5-688.0 mmt during the MY 2007/08-MY 2011/12 period (Table 7 and Figure 9).  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat total use is projected to be 679.6 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 1.5% from 669.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 5.9% from 646.6 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 7 provides a projected list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of total wheat use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Sizable year-over-year increases in wheat total use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the European Union and China, with smaller increases projected for Argentina, Brazil, selected Middle Eastern countries, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, India, Russia, and Ukraine.  Decreases in total wheat usage are forecast for the United States, Australia, Canada, North Africa, and Kazakhstan.

The European Union (126.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest World user of wheat in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed closely by China (124.0 mmt), India (94.5 mmt), North Africa (41.5 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (37.6 mmt), Russia (35.0 mmt), the United States (33.1 mmt), Pakistan (25.1 mmt), Southeast Asia (16.5 mmt), Brazil (12.3 mmt), Ukraine (12.0 mmt), Canada (9.8 mmt), Australia (6.8 mmt), Kazakhstan (6.7 mmt), and Argentina (6.2 mmt).

II-G. World Wheat Ending Stocks by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks of 192.9 mmt for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 3.9% from 185.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 10.4% from 174.8 mmt in MY 2012/13, but is down from the range of 196.2-201.2 mmt over the MY 2009/10 through 2011/12 period (Table 8 and Figure 9).  The 37 year low in World wheat ending stocks occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 129.0 mmt in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks are projected at 175.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up 3.4% from 169.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up 13.0% from 155.2 mmt in MY 2012/13. 

Table 8 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected holdings of wheat ending stocks in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, the European Union, China, selected Middle Eastern countries, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  Decreases are projected for Argentina, Australia, Canada, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and India.  No or marginal changes are projected for Brazil and Pakistan.

China (63.0 mmt) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (17.5 mmt), the European Union (16.6), India (16.3 mmt), North Africa (11.6 mmt), selected Middle Eastern countries (10.7 mmt), Russia (6.9 mmt), Ukraine (6.2 mmt), Australia (6.1 mmt), Canada (6.0 mmt), Southeast Asia (3.8 mmt), Pakistan (2.1 mmt), Argentina (2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (2.2 mmt), and Brazil (1.9 mmt).

II-H. World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use by Country / Region

Projected World wheat ending stocks-to-use of 27.1% for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 26.4% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and up from 25.7% in MY 2012/13 (Table 9 and Figure 8).  After falling to minimum levels of World wheat % ending stocks-to-use in MY 2006/07 (21.7% S/U) and MY 2007/08 (21.0% S/U), World wheat % S/U was 26.4% in MY 2008/09, 30.9% in MY 2009/10, 30.3% in MY 2010/11, 28.5% in MY 2012/13, 25.5% in MY 2012/13, and 26.7% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and is now projected to be 27.1% in “new crop” MY 2014/15.  The 37 year low in World wheat ending stocks-to-use occurred when supply-demand balances fell to 21.0% in MY 2007/08.  Foreign (non-U.S.) wheat ending stocks-to-use are projected at 21.7% in “new crop” MY 2014/15, up from 21.1% in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and 20.7% in MY 2012/13. 

Table 9 provides a list of the major countries or regions in the World in terms of projected wheat percent (%) ending stocks-to-use in the “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with “old crop” MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13.  Year-over-year increases in wheat ending stocks-to-use in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected for the United States, Australia, the European Union, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  Decreases are projected for Argentina, Canada, Brazil, selected Middle Eastern countries, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and India. 

China (50.4%) is projected to be the largest holder of wheat ending stocks-to-use in the World in “new crop” MY 2014/15, followed by the United States (30.1%), Ukraine (28.3%), selected Middle Eastern countries (28.0%), North Africa (27.7%), Australia (25.1%), Southeast Asia (21.7%), Argentina (19.8%), Canada (18.7%), Kazakhstan (18.3%), India (16.7%), Brazil (14.1%), Russia (12.0%), the European Union (10.8%), and Pakistan (8.0%).

Similar to the relationship between U.S. wheat ending stocks-to-use and U.S. average wheat prices (see Figure 8) since MY 1973/74, a negative market relationship has existed between U.S. wheat season average cash prices and World wheat % ending stocks-to-use – but with an adjustment or “structural jump” after MY 2009/10 (Figure 10).  Larger World wheat supply-demand balances (i.e., higher percentages of ending stocks-to-use) are typically associated with lower U.S. wheat prices, while smaller supply-demand balances are usually associated with higher U.S. wheat prices – all else being equal.  As in Figure 8 earlier, U.S. wheat prices in Figure 10 are reported on a nominal basis (i.e., not adjusted for inflation).   Whereas the minimum U.S. wheat percent stocks-to-use since MY 1973/74 was 13.2% in the historic tight stocks year of MY 2007/08, the historic minimum in World wheat percent stocks-to-use occurred in that same marketing year at 21.0%.  Since that time, World wheat ending stocks-to-use have not fallen below 25.5% in MY 2012/13.

Table 1. U.S. Wheat Supply-Demand Balance Sheet: MY 2008/09 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15 (Nov. 10th USDA WASDE & KSU 2014/15 Projections)

Item

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

KSU

Lower Exports***

2014/15

KSU

Higher Exports***

2014/15

% Probability of Occurring

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

10%

Planted Area (million acres)

63.617

59.017

52.620

54.277

55.294

56.236

56.822

56.822

56.822

Harvested Area (million acres)

56.036

49.841

46.883

45.687

48.758

45.332

46.381

46.381

46.381

% Harvested/Planted Area

88.1%

84.5%

89.1%

84.2%

88.2%

80.6%

81.6%

81.6%

81.6%

Yield / harvested acre (bu/ac)

44.8

44.3

46.1

43.6

46.2

47.1

43.7

43.7

43.7

 

Million Bushels

Beginning Stocks

306

657

976

862

743

718

590

590

590

Production

2,499

2,218

2,207

1,999

2,252

2,135

2,026

2,026

2,026

Imports

127

119

97

112

123

169

170

170

170

Total Supply

2,932

2,993

3,279

2,974

3,118

3,021

2,785

2,785

2,785

 

 

Food Use

927

919

926

941

945

951

960

960

960

Seed Use

78

69

71

76

73

77

76

76

76

Exports

1,015

879

1,291

1,051

1,012

1,176

925

 ò125  800

ñ125  1,050

Feed & Residual Use

255

150

129

162

370

228

180

180

180

Total Use

2,275

2,018

2,417

2,231

2,400

2,432

2,141

2,016

2,266

 

 

Ending Stocks

657

976

862

743

718

590

644

769

519

% Ending Stocks-to-Use

28.87%

48.36%

35.66%

33.30%

29.74%

24.26%

30.08%

38.14%

22.90%

U.S. Wheat Avg. Farm Price ($/bushel)

$6.78

$4.87

$5.70

$7.24

 

$7.77

 

$6.87

$5.65-$6.15 ($5.90)

$5.00-$5.60 ($5.30)

$6.70-$7.30

($7.00)


 

Figure 3. U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage – All Winter, Spring & Durum Wheat Classes (1973-2014) plus KSU Estimate for 2015 U.S. Winter Wheat

Figure 4. U.S. All Wheat Planted & Harvested Acreage (1973-2014)

Figure 5. U.S. All Wheat Yield Trend (1973-2013), USDA 2014 Projection, & KSU 2014 Trend  
(November 10, 2014)

Text Box: USDA 2014 Yield = 43.7 bu/ac
KSU 2015 trend: 45.9 bu/ac 
10 year Min. = 38.6 bu/ac
10 year Max. = 47.1 bu/ac
 

Figure 6. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies for MY 2004/05 – “New Crop” MY 2014/15 (November 10, 2014)



Figure 6. Trends in U.S. Wheat Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 - “New Crop” MY 2014/15

                    (November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Figure 7. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks vs U.S. Cash Prices: MY 2004/05 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15      
(September 11, 2014 USDA WASDE Report & KSU forecasts for MY 2014/15)

Figure 8. U.S. Wheat Price vs U.S. % Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15)     

Text Box: “New Crop”
MY 2014/15
30.1% S/U
$5.90
Text Box: 2011/12

Figure 9. World Wheat Usage & Ending Stocks: MY 2007/08 thru “New Crop” MY 2014/15                      
(November 10, 2014 USDA WASDE Report)

Text Box: Wheat Usage
ñ12.1 mmt/yr 
(+2.0%/yr) 
since 2007/08
Text Box: Production
ñ13.4 mmt/yr (+2.2%/yr) 
since 2007/08
 
Text Box: End Stocks
192.9 mmt in “new crop” 2014/15
 
Up 63.9 mmt (+50%) since 
37 year low in 
MY 2007/08
Text Box: Wheat Trade
133-166 mmt since 2008/09
 
154.9 mmt in MY 2014/15

Figure 10. U.S. Wheat Price vs % World Stocks-to-Use (MY 1973/74 through “New Crop” MY 2014/15)           

Text Box: “New Crop” 2014/15 
27.1% S/U & $5.90/bu
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2012/13 
25.6% S/U & $7.77/bu
Text Box: “Old Crop” 2013/14 
26.7% S/U & $6.87/bu
Text Box: 2008/09
Text Box: 2011/12
Text Box: 2010/11
Text Box: 2007/08
Text Box: 2006/07 
Text Box: 2009/10
Text Box: 1986/87

 

Table 2. World Wheat Production Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Production                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Production: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Wheat Production: October 2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production:               November Less October  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Production:                Percent (%)         November of October  2014

November Wheat Production: Old crop 2013/14          

October  Wheat Production: Old crop 2013/14

November Less October  Wheat  Production             for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Production of                         Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Production: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Production             Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Production       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

719.86

721.12

(1.26)

99.8%

714.74

715.13

(0.39)

5.12

100.7%

657.94

61.92

109.4%

United States

55.13

55.39

(0.26)

99.5%

58.11

58.11

0.00

(2.98)

94.9%

61.30

(6.17)

89.9%

Total Foreign

664.73

665.72

(0.99)

99.9%

656.63

657.03

(0.40)

8.10

101.2%

596.64

68.09

111.4%

Major Exporters

218.90

218.48

0.42

100.2%

218.15

218.15

0.00

0.75

100.3%

193.21

25.69

113.3%

Argentina

12.00

12.00

0.00

100.0%

10.50

10.50

0.00

1.50

114.3%

9.30

2.70

129.0%

Australia

24.00

25.00

(1.00)

96.0%

27.01

27.01

0.00

(3.01)

88.9%

22.86

1.14

105.0%

Canada

27.50

27.50

0.00

100.0%

37.50

37.50

0.00

(10.00)

73.3%

27.21

0.29

101.1%

European Union - 28 Countries

155.40

153.98

1.42

100.9%

143.13

143.13

0.00

12.27

108.6%

133.85

21.55

116.1%

Major Importers

196.14

196.88

(0.74)

99.6%

194.06

194.45

(0.39)

2.08

101.1%

187.29

8.85

104.7%

Brazil

6.30

6.30

0.00

100.0%

5.30

5.30

0.00

1.00

118.9%

4.38

1.92

143.8%

China

126.00

126.00

0.00

100.0%

121.93

121.93

0.00

4.07

103.3%

121.02

4.98

104.1%

Selected Middle East

17.53

17.53

0.00

100.0%

18.92

18.92

0.00

(1.39)

92.7%

17.18

0.35

102.0%

North Africa

16.80

17.45

(0.65)

96.3%

19.72

20.12

(0.40)

(2.92)

85.2%

17.32

(0.52)

97.0%

Pakistan

25.00

25.00

0.00

100.0%

24.00

24.00

0.00

1.00

104.2%

23.30

1.70

107.3%

Southeast Asia

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

0.00

0.00

#DIV/0!

India

95.91

95.91

0.00

100.0%

93.51

93.51

0.00

2.40

102.6%

94.88

1.03

101.1%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

111.10

111.60

(0.50)

99.6%

103.87

103.87

0.00

7.23

107.0%

77.80

33.30

142.8%

Russia

59.00

59.00

0.00

100.0%

52.09

52.09

0.00

6.91

113.3%

37.72

21.28

156.4%

Kazakhstan

12.00

12.50

(0.50)

96.0%

13.94

13.94

0.00

(1.94)

86.1%

9.84

2.16

122.0%

Ukraine

24.50

24.50

0.00

100.0%

22.28

22.28

0.00

2.22

110.0%

15.76

8.74

155.5%

 

Table 3. World Wheat Export Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Exports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Exports: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Wheat Exports: October  2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:               November Less October  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Exports:                Percent (%)         November of October  2014

November Wheat Exports: Old crop 2013/14          

October  Wheat Exports: Old crop 2013/14

November Less October  Wheat  Exports for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Exports of Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Exports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Exports Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Exports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

154.92

156.02

(1.10)

99.3%

165.81

166.18

(0.37)

(10.89)

93.4%

137.36

17.56

112.8%

United States

25.17

25.17

0.00

100.0%

32.01

32.01

0.00

(6.84)

78.6%

27.54

(2.37)

91.4%

Total Foreign

129.75

130.85

(1.10)

99.2%

133.79

134.17

(0.38)

(4.04)

97.0%

109.82

19.93

118.1%

Major Exporters

73.50

74.50

(1.00)

98.7%

75.98

76.37

(0.39)

(2.48)

96.7%

63.85

9.65

115.1%

Argentina

6.00

6.00

0.00

100.0%

2.20

2.20

0.00

3.80

272.7%

3.55

2.45

169.0%

Australia

17.50

18.50

(1.00)

94.6%

18.62

19.00

(0.38)

(1.12)

94.0%

18.66

(1.16)

93.8%

Canada

22.00

22.00

0.00

100.0%

23.24

23.24

0.00

(1.24)

94.7%

18.97

3.03

116.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

28.00

28.00

0.00

100.0%

31.93

31.93

0.00

(3.93)

87.7%

22.68

5.32

123.5%

Major Importers

6.34

6.34

0.00

100.0%

5.28

5.28

0.00

1.06

120.1%

6.47

(0.13)

98.0%

Brazil

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.10

0.10

0.00

0.90

1000.0%

1.58

(0.58)

63.3%

China

1.00

1.00

0.00

100.0%

0.89

0.89

0.00

0.11

112.4%

0.97

0.03

103.1%

Selected Middle East

0.53

0.53

0.00

100.0%

0.58

0.58

0.00

(0.05)

91.4%

0.69

(0.16)

76.8%

North Africa

0.48

0.48

0.00

100.0%

0.50

0.50

0.00

(0.02)

96.0%

0.61

(0.13)

78.7%

Pakistan

0.70

0.70

0.00

100.0%

0.75

0.75

0.00

(0.05)

93.3%

0.85

(0.15)

82.4%

Southeast Asia

0.84

0.84

0.00

100.0%

0.88

0.88

0.00

(0.04)

95.5%

0.77

0.07

109.1%

India

3.00

3.00

0.00

100.0%

5.90

5.90

0.00

(2.90)

50.8%

6.82

(3.82)

44.0%

Former Soviet Union - 12 Countries

38.54

38.54

0.00

100.0%

37.10

37.10

0.00

1.44

103.9%

25.38

13.16

151.9%

Russia

22.50

22.50

0.00

100.0%

18.53

18.53

0.00

3.97

121.4%

11.29

11.21

199.3%

Kazakhstan

5.30

5.50

(0.20)

96.4%

8.10

8.10

0.00

(2.80)

65.4%

6.29

(0.99)

84.3%

Ukraine

10.00

10.00

0.00

100.0%

9.76

9.76

0.00

0.24

102.5%

7.19

2.81

139.1%

 

Table 4. World Wheat Import Projections for "New Crop" MY 2014/15, "Old Crop" MY 2013/14, and MY 2012/13

World Wheat Imports                                                 by Major Country / Region

Wheat Imports: New Crop 2014/15     November 2014

Wheat Imports: October  2014 New Crop 2014/15                   (1 month ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:               November Less October  2014                    

New Crop 2014/15 Imports:                Percent (%)         November of October  2014

November Wheat Imports: Old crop 2013/14          

October  Wheat Imports: Old crop 2013/14

November Less October  Wheat  Imports for Old crop 2013/14

New Crop 2014/15 Imports Less Last year’s 2013/14

% New Crop 2014/15 Imports of Old crop 2013/14

Wheat Imports: 2012/13                           (2 years ago)

New Crop 2014/15 Imports             Less 2012/13

% Old crop 2014/15 Imports       of 2012/13

 

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

mmt

mmt

Percent (%)

World

153.44

154.72

(1.28)

99.2%

156.59

156.46

0.13

(3.15)

98.0%

144.22

9.22

106.4%

United States

4.63

4.63

0.00

100.0%

4.59

4.59

0.00

0.04

100.9%

3.34

1.29

138.6%

Total Foreign

148.82

150.10

(1.28)

99.1%

152.00

151.87

0.13

(3.18)

97.9%

140.87

7.95

105.6%

Major Exporters

5.64

5.64

0.00

100.0%

4.58

4.58

0.00

1.06

123.1%

5.91

(0.27)

95.4%

Argentina

0.01

0.01

0.00

100.0%

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.00

0.01

#DIV/0!

Australia

0.15

0.15

0.00

100.0%

0.15

0.15

0.00

0.00

100.0%

0.14

0.01

107.1%

Canada

0.48

0.48

0.00

100.0%

0.45

0.44

0.01

0.03

106.7%

0.48

0.00

100.0%

European Union - 28 Countries

5.00

5.00

0.00

100.0%

3.98

3.98

0.00

1.02

125.6%

5.28

(0.28)

94.7%

Major Importers

81.38

82.28

(0.90)

98.9%

87.31

87.21

0.10

(5.93)

93.2%

79.47

1.91

102.4%

Brazil

7.00

6.50

0.50

107.7%

7.07

7.00

0.07

(0.07)

99.0%

7.36

(0.36)

95.1%

China

1.70

2.00

(0.30)

85.0%

6.77

6.77

0.00

(5.07)

25.1%

2.96

(1.26)

57.4%

Selected Middle East

21.13

21.13

0.00

100.0%

20.69

20.69

0.00

0.44

102.1%

20.86

0.27

101.3%

North Africa

23.25

24.35

(1.10)

95.5%

25.24

25.24

0.00

(1.99)

92.1%