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September 1, 2021
Livestock Insurance, 2021 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Federal insurance options are becoming more favorable
https://www.ksre.k‐state.edu/news/stories/2021/01/beef‐cattle‐winter‐ranch‐management‐series.html
Cow‐calf insurance options by type of risk
Production
FeedPrice
LRP
PRF
LGM
MPCI
WFRP
Production Risk:Events such as disease or weather that can lead to a decline in production/weight gain or mortalityPrice RiskMarket price might drop, even to the point of not covering the cost of productionFeed RiskIf crop/forage yield decreases, feed may become expensive or difficult to purchase
Policies in red are never …
September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
beef and veal exports in 2010. However, maintaining international … global economic recession. By 2010,
seven years after the … acquiring a 14% market share in 2010. Other
major exporters …
February 1, 2013
Beef Cattle
USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-06
February … many farm enterprises to be profitable and sustainable.
Leasing … Arrangements
Generally, the percent of profits each
party receives is based …
March 15, 2017
Grain Marketing Presentations
Chinese soybean imports
2) Ag Market Price Responsiveness … Responsiveness – Flexibility of Ag Prices
3) Favorable Weather … 21%
-80%-70%
-60%-50%
-40%-30%
-20%-10%
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%
0200
400600
8001,000
1,2001,400
1,6001,800
2,000 …
May 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from “current” MY 2016/17 – but within the range of $3.25‐$3.55 /bu for this marketing year. This scenario is
given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.926 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.741 bb ending stocks, 12.27% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.740 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.660 bb ending stocks, 11.21% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.155 bb production, 14.525 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.065 bb ending stocks, 7.91% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,053.8 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 9.4% from 963.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 3.7% from 1,016.0 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,265.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,173.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 154.4 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 28.7% from 120.0 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 8.6% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
223.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 211.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 223.0 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.4%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). An ongoing, strong
demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any
serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.
Page | 3
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
April 11th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On April 11th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “current crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for corn.
The “current” MY 2016/17 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2016 and will last through August 31, 2017.
On March 31st, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) released
it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) reports. These USDA reports were preceded by
the USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23‐24, 2017
(https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/). At this forum the USDA provided an initial set of supply‐demand and price
forecasts for U.S. corn and other crops for the upcoming 2017/18 marketing year. “Next crop” MY 2016/17 for
U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Following its normal procedures, the next supply‐demand and price forecasts for “next crop” 2017/18
from the USDA will be released in the May 10, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
MAY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.32 1/2 on August 31, 2016, MAY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.75 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, MAY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.49 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.87 ¼ on February 16, 2017. Since then, MARCH 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.67 ¼ on
February 27th, and then to a high of $3.86 ¼ on February 28th before closing at $3.82 on March 1, 2017
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to MARCH 2017 Corn futures, following a low of $3.58 1/2 on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ½ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of
$3.74 ¼ on November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.03 ¾ on
February 16, 2017. Since then, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.88 on February 27th,
and then to a high of $4.04 on February 28th before closing at $4.01 ¼ on March 1, 2017.
CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 corn futures on
Wednesday, March 1st was $0.16 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $3.89 ¼ for JULY 2017 Corn less $3.75 ¾ for MARCH 2017
Corn), or $0.0419 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or additional
handling costs or other discounts. The MARCH 2017 Corn futures contract was entering the early stages of its
Page | 4
contract delivery period at that time, with grain elevators “rolling” to the MAY 2017 Corn futures contract for
local basis determination purposes. The spread from the MAY 2017 to JULY 2017 Corn futures contracts was
$0.07 ¼ ($3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.82) or $0.03625 per month.
Figure 1. MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 2, 2017)
ne …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Cotton
3) Kansas Farm Cost & Profitability Trends
Dow Jones Industrial … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
May 29, 2024
Recent Videos
Price Targets, (the price/profit you’ll sell at);c) Date … A) $8.46 $7.92 Expected Profit $0.07
DO NOT consider this … gain.• Once implemented, a profit goal ($0.20) and date to …
Breakout Sessions
2012 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session … a particular interest in Ag lease law and equitable lease … Planning Issues
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KENT B MILLER
EXTENSION AG ECONOMIST
KS FARM MGT ASSOC SE
103 ½ E. 9TH, SUITE 202
WINFIELD …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
2017 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session … professional, farmer-producer, ag lender, and
insurance industry … Kansas.
2017 Risk and Profit Conference
Breakout Session …
October 1, 2019
2019 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Market Outlook for 2020
2019 Ag Lenders Conferences
Garden … Oilseeds)
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2019 U.S … seedings in 2019
o Struggling profitability for 2013-2018 HRW Wheat
More …