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March 1, 2023
INDUSTRY
https://www.agmanager.info/contributors/tonsor
Background on GT’s … USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center 2/23/23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2014 … USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center 2/23/23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2014 …
August 1, 2023
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Take‐Home Summary
1.Supply Dynamics Supporting Higher Cattle Prices
2.Consumer Meat Demand Mixed To‐Date in 23’
Quarterly Forecasts … LMIC: 8/16/23)
Data Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l …
August 1, 2023
2023 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Take‐Home Summary
1.Supply Dynamics Supporting Higher Cattle Prices
2.Consumer Meat Demand Mixed To‐Date in 23’
Quarterly Forecasts … LMIC: 8/16/23)
Data Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l …
September 1, 2023
2023 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Take‐Home Summary
1.Supply Dynamics Supporting Higher Cattle Prices
2.Consumer Meat Demand Mixed in 23’ & Key to “Peak Prices” This Cycle
Quarterly Forecasts … LMIC: 9/19/23)
Data Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l …
October 6, 2017
2017 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
2017
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef Basis, Salina KS Projections (as of 10/5):Oct. 11: $164Nov. 15: $166
??????
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2003 … 4th Quarter
Data Source: USDA‐AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-P-5408/28/17
120
130
140
150
160
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190
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210
220
JAN …
General Sessions
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS …
September 11, 2014
LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW … Cow
C-P-66
07/31/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & … Cow
C-P-66
08/09/12
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & …
August 22, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-30
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-31
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2007-
11
2012
2013
G-NP-32
08/19/13
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS …
October 1, 2018
2018 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
RELATIONSHIPAnnual, Retail Weight, Deflated All Fresh Retail Price
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA‐ERS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Demand is NOT Per Capita Consumption
http://www.beefboard.org/evaluation/130612demanddeterminantstudy.asp
2013 Beef Demand Determinants Study
Glynn T. Tonsor, Jayson L. Lusk, and Ted C. Schroeder
Checkoff Program UpdateFebruary 1, 2018
Presentation at 2018 Cattle Industry ConventionPhoenix, AZ
Full Project Report
https://www.beefboard.org/news/180131Tonsor‐beef‐demand‐print.asp
Assessing Beef Demand Determinants
C-P-5410/02/18
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
JAN …
April 21, 2016
LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
4/5/16 Projections (vs 9/4/15)
2016 … USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock … USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
17.2% is average
between …