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November 6, 2013
Broader political uncertainty
• Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices (http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html)
• … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
Number 10% Lower 10% Lower … 1,222/heifer (10 yrs) NPV
Longer‐term projections (as of Feb. 2013)
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm
2021 Projection 1.1
million less than Feb.
12’
2022 herd +12%
(vs. 2012)
19
As of: 11/4/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
Nov FC:
11/4: $163
10/1: $165
9/1: $160
8/1: $160
MED …
February 27, 2023
UNCERTAINTY
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Agricultural Economics
Where … https://www.agmanager.info/grain-
marketing/interactive-crop-basis-tool
Nearby Basis … 23
https://www.agmanager.info/grain-
marketing/interactive-crop-basis-tool
Week 40 (early …
December 4, 2013
Broader political uncertainty
• Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices
(http://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html)
• … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
12/4/2013
9
Cow‐Calf – … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp
Net Present Value of Beef
Replacements
Number
Year …
February 28, 2012
ANNUAL PIG CROP
U.S.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1986 … “normal”…are
new normal …
Policy/Regulation Issues & Trends …
July 18, 2012
Energy
6
Policies Influence the Growth of Biofuels … Shift of Corn to an Energy Crop ...........................................................................................11
Biofuels … Depend on Crude Oil Prices and Policy Decisions .........................................................................40
Climate …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
6
Policies Influence the Growth of Biofuels … Shift of Corn to an Energy Crop ...........................................................................................11
Biofuels … Depend on Crude Oil Prices and Policy Decisions .........................................................................40
Climate …
June 15, 2012
Analysis by LMIC
CALF CROP
U.S., Annual
30
35
40
45
50
55
1951 … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp)
Scenario1: FARPI Adjusted … Feedlot Capacity – to - Calf Crop Ratio
Assuming: 2011 Calf …
June 12, 2012
Analysis by LMIC
CALF CROP
U.S., Annual
30
35
40
45
50
55
1951 … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp)
Scenario1: FARPI Adjusted … Feedlot Capacity – to - Calf Crop Ratio
Assuming: 2011 Calf …
August 30, 2011
m
ill
io
ns
)
US Annual Calf Crop (2011 is July 1 estimate)
Data … costs, opportunities to row
crop, etc. may increasingly exit … dashboard
(http://www.agmanager.info/Tools/default.asp#LIVESTOCK)
Expected Sales …
November 1, 2008
Agribusiness Papers
through Engagement.” A policy shift discussed at the conference … solving client problems. The policy shift being discussed at … Economic
Development , 60%
Crop Production , 38%
Family …