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October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
found support due to 1) spring corn
planting difficulties, 2) summer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn mill … he U.S. corn market is likely again to have to weigh the annual risk of weather‐limited 2018 U.S. corn
production prospects (less than 13.500 bb??) and tighter ending stocks (less than 1.250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provide both old crop and new crop pricing opportunities in Spring‐
Summer 2018.
2. Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… … The CME DECEMBER 2016 corn contract represents price prospects during September‐November, 2016 –
including the anticipated bulk of the key U.S. corn harvest period of October through early November, 2016.
DECEMBER 2016 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for most of the “harvest
2016” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges. The DECEMBER 2016 corn futures
market contract also initially responded “neutrally” to the information in the December 9th USDA reports, and
since has trended sideways in a generally volatile manner.
DEC 2016 CME Corn Futures
Sept. 2014 – Dec. 18, 2015
Close = $3.97 on 12/18/2015
MARCH 2016 CME Corn Futures
Sept. 2014 – Dec. 18, 2015
Close = $3.74 ½ on 12/18/2015
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On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2016 corn futures prices opened at $3.95 ½ per bushel, trading
within the range of $3.93 ‐ $4.00 ½ during the session, before settling at $3.95 ½ – unchanged for the day
(Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2016 Corn has traded from lows of $3.85 ¾ on December 17th to a high of
$4.01 ½ on December 18th before closing at $3.97 on that same day.
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Pri …
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non‐ethanol FSI use of
1.395 bb (u … n sometime before spring,
2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract on October 1st could be a
key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in
coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.12 ½ on Monday, December 15th
before closing at $4.08 ½ on that same day.
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The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash corn and grain sorghum price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.36 ½ on Monday, December 15th, before closing at $4.32 ¾
on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
over 15
billion bushels (bb) and ending stocks of near 2.4 bb have continued to be the focus of the U.S. corn market.
Cash corn prices in Kansas have declined below $3.00 … on September 22nd, cash corn prices near Salina, Kansas in the central part of … …
October 27, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
corn
prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.555 billion bushels (bb) is down
30 million bushels (mb) from September, and 131 mb from August, but still down from 14.216 bb in 2014.
Total supplies of 15.316 bb in MY 2015/16 are down 31 mb from September, and down 163 mb from “old
crop” MY 2014/15. Forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.755 bb includes ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up
43 …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
1) declining U.S.
farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to‐date as both
winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on‐farm storage space, 2)
continued stronger‐than‐anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feed …
November 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 19 – Nov. 14, 2014
Close = $4.06 ½ on 11/17/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 20 – Nov. 17, 2014
Close = $3.77 ½ on 11/17/2014
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The “new crop” JULY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately positive manner
to the information in the November 10th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Monday, November 10th –
CME JULY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.94 per bushel, trading within the range of $3.93 ¾ ‐ $4.07
during the session, before settling at $3.98 ½ – up $0.02 per bushel for the day (Figure 1). Since then, JULY
2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.94 ½ on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of
$4.17 on Thursday, November 13th, before closing at $4.06 ½ on Monday, November 17th.
Question: Do the prices in early October represent a fall harvest low?
In hindsight now it seems that the upward trend in DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices since the
$3.46 ¾ low trading price on October 1, 2014 may signal that the fall harvest market low in corn futures prices
has occurred. Of course the results of the December 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production and
WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them as well as other possible market influencing factors
will be key determinants as to whether these price levels ultimately represent the fall harvest “lows” for this
grain marketing year.
A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January‐February in large
crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring,
2015. However, the $3.46 ¾ low on October 1st will be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 or CME
MAY 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in coming months.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA Projections for “New Crop” 2014/15
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 90.885 million acres (ma) –
unchanged from October (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage of 90.885 million acres in 2014 is down from
95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012 (adjusted 116,000 acres higher by the USDA), and 91.936 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.097 ma – unchanged from October
but down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, while still being up from 81.446 ma in 2011. The
2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.4%, down from 91.9%
in to 2013, but up from 89.8% in 2012, and equal to 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, but is
down from the earlier USDA projection of 174.2 bu/ac in October (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of
173.4 bu/ac in November is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac.,
and up from the previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009. Based on these 2014 acreage and yield
forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be 14.407 billion bushels (bb) – which would be
the highest amount on record, larger than the current record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012
(adjusted lower by 25 million bushels or “mb”), 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009
(Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.668 bb
– resulting from beginning stocks of 1.236 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.407 bb, and projected imports
of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.668 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are
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comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008 …
June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… … jected to be 5.250 bb, with non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and
Industri …
September 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ces for “new crop” MY 2015/16. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.585 billion bushels
(bb) is down 101 million bushels (mb) from August, but still down from 14.216 bb in 2014, with total supplies
of 15.347 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 being down 141 mb from “old crop” MY 2014/15. Record high
forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.755 bb (up 10 mb vs MY 2014/15), includes ethanol use of 5.250
bb (up 45 …