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February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ord 2014 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bushels
per acre. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb
last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago)
is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 …
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
rojected average corn prices. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of
15.472 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of
13.645 bb (down 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.200 bb,
non‐ …
September 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
million acres or ‘ma’,
harvested acreage of 83.839 ma, and record 2014 U.S. corn yields of 171.7 bushels per acre. Along with a
record 2014 U.S. corn crop, the USDA also projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.607 bb. Projected
“new crop” MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.605 bb is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.125 bb
(unchan …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
n projected average corn prices. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of
15.472 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of
13.695 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago) is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (down …
March 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
prospects – may impact U.S. farmers’ 2016 corn
acreage decisions and as a result 2016 U.S. corn production prospects.
Market factors such as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain and energy commodity
markets, b) U … use of 5.225
bb, non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industria …
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
5/16. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.654 billion bushels (bb) is up 99 million
bushels (mb) from October, but still down from the record high 14.216 bb in 2014. Total supplies of 15.415 bb
in MY 2015/16 are also up 99 mb from October, but down from the record of 15.479 bb in “old crop” MY
2014/15. Forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.655 bb (down 100 mb) includes ethanol use of 5.175 bb
(up 34 …
September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… b (up 50 mb vs MY 2014/15),
non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.375 bb (up 20 mb vs last year), exports of 1.850 bb, and feed and residual use of 5.300
bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.713 bb (12.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.772 bb
(12.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but still up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4%
S/U) in MY 2012/13. “New crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. avg. cash prices are forecast in the range of $3.35‐$3.95
/bu. (midpoint of $3.65) versus to $3.65‐$3.75 /bu ($3.70 midpoint) in MY 2014/15, and $4.46 in MY 2013/14.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015 Normal Crop 13.568 bb Production” Scenario (40% prob.): 88.897 ma
planted, 81.000 ma harvested, yield of 167.5 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.568 bb, total supplies of
15.370 bb, total use of 13.775 bb, ending stocks of 1.595 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b)
“2015 Smaller Normal Crop 13.365 bb Production” Scenario (50% prob.): 88.897 ma planted, 81.000 ma
harvested, yield of 165.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.365 bb, total supplies of 15.167 bb, total use
of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.467 bb, 10.7% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Short Crop
12.555 bb Production” Scenario (10% prob.): Planted / harvested acres same as scenarios (a) & (b), but with a
KSU low yield of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.555 bb, total supplies of 14.317 bb, total use of
13.415 bb, ending stocks of 902 mb, 6.72% S/U, & $6.90 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, up from 1,181 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1,128 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected
World corn ending stocks of 195.1 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down marginally from
197.4 mmt (20.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 175.0 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. August USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On August 12th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Crop Production report
made its’ first projection of 2015 U.S. corn production as of August 1, 2015 that was based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials. On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its
August 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World
corn supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2015
and will last through August 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME DEC 2015 & MAY 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2015 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off DEC 2015 corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “very negative” manner to the
information in the August 12th USDA reports, but in the days afterward have trended “first higher then
sideways”. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, August 12th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DECEMBER 2015
corn futures prices opened at $3.87 ¾ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.57 ½ ‐ $3.93 ½ during the
session, before settling at $3.68 – down $0.19 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.65 ½ on Monday, August 24th to a high of $3.86 ¾ on Tuesday, August 25th to before
closing at $3.75 ¼ on Monday, August 31st.
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2015 & MAY 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts …
February 11, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… … DEC 2016 CME Corn Futures
June 15, 2015 – Feb. 10, 2016
Close = $3.83 ½ on 2/10/2016
MARCH 2016 CME Corn Futures
June 15, 2015 – Feb. 10, 2016
Close = $3.60 ¼ on 2/10/2016
Page | 3
I‐C. Kansas Corn Seasonal Average Pri …
April 25, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
e and production prospects. Low corn
prices and limited corn net returns prospects may reduce U.S. 2016 corn acreage and production prospects.
Market factors such as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other
commodity mar … and
balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total supplies
of 15.382 bb for MY 2015/16. Total use is projected to be 13.521 bb (down 24 million bushels or ‘mb’) Ethanol
use was projected to be …
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
cks
of 2.215 bb have provided moderate support for the U.S. corn market.
Cash corn prices in at major grain elevators in central and western Kansas ranged from $3.04 to $3 … … …