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June 15, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
2015 U.S. corn production of
13.630 bb is down from 14.216 bb a year earlier, but total supplies of 15.531 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are
up from 15.472 bb in “current” MY 2014/15. Projected MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.760 bb is a record
(up from 13.597 bb in MY 2014/15), with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (vs 5.1 …
July 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… up 25 mb vs a year earlier), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.360 bb (up 14 mb), exports
of 1.875 bb (up 25 mb), and feed and residual use of 5.275 bb (down 25 mb). Ending stocks are forecast at
1.599 bb (11.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.779 bb (13.0% S/U) in “current” MY 2014/15,
but still up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. “New crop” MY
2015/16 U.S. average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.45‐$4.05 per bu. (midpoint of $3.75)
versus to $3.60‐$3.80 /bu ($3.70 midpoint) in “current” MY 2014/15, and $4.46 in MY 2013/14.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015 ‘Normal Crop’ 13.382 bb Production” Scenario (30% prob.): 88.897 ma
planted, 81.101 ma harvested, yield of 165.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.382 bb, total supplies of
15.186 bb, total use of 13.710 bb, ending stocks of 1.476 bb, 10.77% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b)
“2015 ‘Smaller Normal Crop’ 13.163 bb Production” Scenario (55% prob.): 88.897 ma planted, 81.101 ma
harvested, KSU long term trend yield of 162.25 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.163 bb, total supplies of
14.967 bb, total use of 13.625 bb, ending stocks of 1.342 bb, 9.84% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and
c) “2015 ‘Short Crop’ 12.571 bb Production” Scenario (15% prob.): Planted / harvested acres same as
scenarios (a) & (b), but with a KSU low yield of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.571 bb, total supplies of
14.375 bb, total use of 13.405 bb, ending stocks of 970 mb, 7.24% S/U, & $6.90 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,181 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2015/16, up
from 1,176 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and 1,128 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks
of 190.0 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down marginally from 194.0 mmt (19.7% S/U) in
“current” MY 2014/15, but up from 174.7 mmt (18.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. July USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On July 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
2014/15 marketing year will end on August 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. corn marketing year
will begin on September 1, 2015 and will last through August 31, 2016.
In the July 10th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for corn are
based on WAOB estimates of crop acreage and yields. However, the first projection of 2015 U.S. corn
production by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that will be based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials will be in the August 12, 2015 Crop Production and WASDE reports.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for the December 2014 – mid‐July 2015 Period
The CME SEPTEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current
grain market price prospects through late August 2015, when the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract will
then assume the lead contract role in the market. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off
SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as
other World grain markets. The “current crop” SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially
responded in a “positive” manner to the information in the July 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward
trended first higher then back lower.
On the day of the report – Friday, July 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) SEPTEMBER 2015 corn
futures prices opened at $4.28 per bushel, and traded in a range of $4.24 ¼ ‐ $4.39 ½ during the session,
before settling at $4.34 ¾ – UP $0.06 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released
at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then,
SEPTEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.43 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a low of $4.04 ½ on Monday,
July 20th before closing at $4.05 on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the lead “new crop” corn futures contract, representing
U.S. corn market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is
the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain
sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges here in the United States. The “new crop” DECEMBER 2015
corn futures market contract also initially responded “positively” to the information in the July 10th USDA
reports, and since then has trended first higher and then downward.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.38 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.34 ¼ ‐ $4.49 during the session, before settling at $4.45 – up $0.06 per bushel for the
day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.54 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a
low of $4.15 ¼ on Monday, July 20th before closing at $4.16 on that same day.
Page | 3
Figure 1. SEPTEMBER 2015 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 18, 2012
Energy
vii
Saturation of Domestic Ethanol Market May Slow Growth in … 3
Rapid Growth in Ethanol Production Increased Corn … 5
Ethanol Links Corn Prices to Gasoline …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
vii
Saturation of Domestic Ethanol Market May Slow Growth in … 3
Rapid Growth in Ethanol Production Increased Corn … 5
Ethanol Links Corn Prices to Gasoline …
May 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
n of 13.630 bb and total supplies
of 15.506 bb (billion bushels) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are both down from record high levels of 14.216 bb
production and 15.472 bb total supplies in “current” MY 2014/15. Projected MY 2015/16 total corn usage of
13.760 bb is a record (up from 13.622 bb in MY 2014/15), with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (same a …
September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ed as low as $3.45 ½
before closing at $0.06 lower at $3.51 ½. Since that day, DEC 2017 corn at first trended higher, but since has
moved generally sideways to close at $3.54 on September 27th.
2. Cash Grain Sorghum Market Prices in Kansas
On Wednesday, September … s at major grain elevators in Western Kansas
were in the range of …
July 27, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Surges with Atkins Diet
Ethanol
and
Exports
World War … 0
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Source …
February 23, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
mostly by expansion in the ethanol sector,
U.S. corn exports … are the highest since 2007/08, but expected growth in exports … states such as Texas
and Kansas. The forecast planted area …
April 12, 2024
International Grain Markets
International Grains Program, Kansas State University
For timely … 45
ENERGY ÐANOL … 46
CME Ethanol Futures – Weekly Nearby …
December 8, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
in the context of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine
Antonina Broyaka
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor Extension Associate of Agricultural Economics Department,Kansas State University
OUTLINE :
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