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October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
found support due to 1) spring corn
planting difficulties, 2) summer corn production problems in select parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, and 3) strong
U.S. corn use for ethanol production, wet corn mill … bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provide both old crop and new crop pricing opportunities in Spring‐
Summer 2018.
2. Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis Bids
In Western Kansas on Wednesday, October 25th cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from
$2.96 ($0.55 under DEC futures) to $3.46 ($0.05 under DEC futures), and ranged from $3.01 ($0.50 under DEC)
to $3 …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
o $3.61 ¾
($0.25 under) in Central Kansas. These prices still are still much higher than a year ago when bids statewide
had fallen to $2.66‐$2.96 on December 23, 2016. These prices were still above marketing loan rates for corn
across the state, with corn loans near $2.05 in Central Kansas and $2.19 per bushel in Western Kansas.
Cash corn price bids in East Central and Northeast Kansas at major terminal locations were $3.65 ¾ ‐ $3.70
¾ on March 15th, up from the range of $3.26‐$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016. Cash corn bids at Kansas
ethanol plants on March 15th ran …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
atewide had
fallen to $2.66‐$2.96 on December 23, 2016, and above marketing loan rates for corn across the state, with
corn loans near $2.05 in Central Kansas and $2.19 per bushel in Western Kansas.
Cash corn price bids in East Central and Northeast Kansas at major terminal locations were $3.71 ½ ‐ $3.76
½ on April 3rd, up from the range of $3.26‐$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016. Cash corn bids at Kansas ethanol
plants on April 3rd ran …
February 23, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Commodity Estimates Committees
U.S. Department of Agriculture … USDA’s projections of 2018/19 U.S. supply, demand and prices … Among the 3 major crops, for U.S. producers corn and soybean …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
corn market in what remains of 2016 through mid‐
2017 include: 1) the pace and timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which will be
placed in storage after fall harvest, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of carryover 2015 and new 2016
crop U.S. corn in domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock …
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
in 2017 include the following. First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock …
September 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
combination of these production and
demand impacts over time are likely to eventually cause a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price”
market scenario in U.S. and World coarse grain markets.
USDA U.S. Corn Market Forecast: In the 9/11/2015 WASDE report, the USDA lowered is forecast of 2015 U.S.
corn production as well …
June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… … jected to be 5.250 bb, with non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and
Industrial (FSI) use of 1.360 bb (down 11 mb), exports of 1.725 bb (up 75 mb), and feed and residual use of
5.250 bb. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 59 mb to 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.50‐$3.70 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA provided it’s first WASDE report forecast “new crop”
MY 2016/17 forecast for U.S. corn – relying on the USDA March 31st Prospective Planting report planted
acreage forecast and a number of other harvested acreage and yield assumptions. Projected 2016 U.S. corn
plantings equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately 85.893
ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
projected to be a record 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 14.120 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of
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2.153 bb (15.24% S/U) – up from 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – U.S. corn prices are
projected by the USDA to be in the range of $3.05‐$3.65 (midpoint = $3.35 /bu) – with the midpoint of $3.35
being down from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 40%
likelihood of occurring by Kansas State University.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 ma downward adjustment in 2016
U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU “trend yield”
scenario (30% probability) assumes the following for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma
harvested, 164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.908 bb production, 15.751 bb total supplies, 13.637 bb total use, 2.114
bb ending stocks, 15.50% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price; B) KSU “moderate drought” scenario (20%
prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.358 bb production, 15.206 bb
total supplies, 13.497 bb total use, 1.709 bb ending stocks, 12.66% S/U, & $3.75 /bu U.S. corn price; and C)
KSU “serious drought” scenario (10% prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac
yield, 12.682 bb production, 14.535 bb total supplies, 13.257 bb total use, 1.278 bb ending stocks, 9.6% S/U, &
$4.40 /bu U.S. corn price.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,011.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,176.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.7 mmt in MY
2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 207.0 mmt (20.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up
from 207.87 mmt (21.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from 207.88 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
…
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… (up 16 mb from MY 2013/14), non‐ethanol FSI use of
1.395 bb (u … losing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January‐February in large
crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring,
2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract on October 1st could be a
key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in
coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.12 ½ on Monday, December 15th
before closing at $4.08 ½ on that same day.
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The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash corn and grain sorghum price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.36 ½ on Monday, December 15th, before closing at $4.32 ¾
on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
March 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
prospects – may impact U.S. farmers’ 2016 corn
acreage decisions and as a result 2016 U.S. corn production prospects.
Market factors such as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain and energy commodity
markets, b) U … use of 5.225
bb, non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industria …