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September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… b (up 50 mb vs MY 2014/15),
non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.375 bb (up 20 mb vs last year), exports of 1.850 bb, and feed and residual use of 5.300
bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.713 bb (12.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.772 bb
(12.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but still up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4%
S/U) in MY 2012/13. “New crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. avg. cash prices are forecast in the range of $3.35‐$3.95
/bu. (midpoint of $3.65) versus to $3.65‐$3.75 /bu ($3.70 midpoint) in MY 2014/15, and $4.46 in MY 2013/14.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015 Normal Crop 13.568 bb Production” Scenario (40% prob.): 88.897 ma
planted, 81.000 ma harvested, yield of 167.5 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.568 bb, total supplies of
15.370 bb, total use of 13.775 bb, ending stocks of 1.595 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b)
“2015 Smaller Normal Crop 13.365 bb Production” Scenario (50% prob.): 88.897 ma planted, 81.000 ma
harvested, yield of 165.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.365 bb, total supplies of 15.167 bb, total use
of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.467 bb, 10.7% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Short Crop
12.555 bb Production” Scenario (10% prob.): Planted / harvested acres same as scenarios (a) & (b), but with a
KSU low yield of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.555 bb, total supplies of 14.317 bb, total use of
13.415 bb, ending stocks of 902 mb, 6.72% S/U, & $6.90 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, up from 1,181 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1,128 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected
World corn ending stocks of 195.1 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down marginally from
197.4 mmt (20.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 175.0 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. August USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On August 12th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Crop Production report
made its’ first projection of 2015 U.S. corn production as of August 1, 2015 that was based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials. On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its
August 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World
corn supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2015
and will last through August 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME DEC 2015 & MAY 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2015 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off DEC 2015 corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “very negative” manner to the
information in the August 12th USDA reports, but in the days afterward have trended “first higher then
sideways”. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, August 12th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DECEMBER 2015
corn futures prices opened at $3.87 ¾ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.57 ½ ‐ $3.93 ½ during the
session, before settling at $3.68 – down $0.19 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.65 ½ on Monday, August 24th to a high of $3.86 ¾ on Tuesday, August 25th to before
closing at $3.75 ¼ on Monday, August 31st.
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2015 & MAY 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts …
June 15, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
2015 U.S. corn production of
13.630 bb is down from 14.216 bb a year earlier, but total supplies of 15.531 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are
up from 15.472 bb in “current” MY 2014/15. Projected MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.760 bb is a record
(up from 13.597 bb in MY 2014/15), with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (vs 5.1 …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
urrences, price prospects are limited until at least April‐May 2015 ‐ the main U.S. corn planting season.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2014 U.S.
corn production to be … l corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago)
is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 …
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
sed feedgrain usage. Over time these factors
are likely to cause a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price” market scenario in U.S. and World coarse
grain markets that currently exists.
USDA U.S. Corn Market Forecast: In the 11/10/2015 WASDE report, the USDA raised its forecast of 2015 U.S.
corn production and end …
July 27, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
is the ‘new normal’
U.S. Net Cash
Farm Income … 0
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May 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
n of 13.630 bb and total supplies
of 15.506 bb (billion bushels) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are both down from record high levels of 14.216 bb
production and 15.472 bb total supplies in “current” MY 2014/15. Projected MY 2015/16 total corn usage of
13.760 bb is a record (up from 13.622 bb in MY 2014/15), with ethanol use of 5.200 bb (same a …
September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
$0.15 under DEC 2017 Corn futures. This higher ethanol bid relative to other Ka … bids is indicative of both strength in ethanol industry profitability AND …
July 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… up 25 mb vs a year earlier), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.360 bb (up 14 mb), exports
of 1.875 bb (up 25 mb), and feed and residual use of 5.275 bb (down 25 mb). Ending stocks are forecast at
1.599 bb (11.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.779 bb (13.0% S/U) in “current” MY 2014/15,
but still up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. “New crop” MY
2015/16 U.S. average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.45‐$4.05 per bu. (midpoint of $3.75)
versus to $3.60‐$3.80 /bu ($3.70 midpoint) in “current” MY 2014/15, and $4.46 in MY 2013/14.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015 ‘Normal Crop’ 13.382 bb Production” Scenario (30% prob.): 88.897 ma
planted, 81.101 ma harvested, yield of 165.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.382 bb, total supplies of
15.186 bb, total use of 13.710 bb, ending stocks of 1.476 bb, 10.77% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b)
“2015 ‘Smaller Normal Crop’ 13.163 bb Production” Scenario (55% prob.): 88.897 ma planted, 81.101 ma
harvested, KSU long term trend yield of 162.25 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.163 bb, total supplies of
14.967 bb, total use of 13.625 bb, ending stocks of 1.342 bb, 9.84% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and
c) “2015 ‘Short Crop’ 12.571 bb Production” Scenario (15% prob.): Planted / harvested acres same as
scenarios (a) & (b), but with a KSU low yield of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.571 bb, total supplies of
14.375 bb, total use of 13.405 bb, ending stocks of 970 mb, 7.24% S/U, & $6.90 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,181 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2015/16, up
from 1,176 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and 1,128 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks
of 190.0 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down marginally from 194.0 mmt (19.7% S/U) in
“current” MY 2014/15, but up from 174.7 mmt (18.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. July USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On July 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
2014/15 marketing year will end on August 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. corn marketing year
will begin on September 1, 2015 and will last through August 31, 2016.
In the July 10th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for corn are
based on WAOB estimates of crop acreage and yields. However, the first projection of 2015 U.S. corn
production by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that will be based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials will be in the August 12, 2015 Crop Production and WASDE reports.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for the December 2014 – mid‐July 2015 Period
The CME SEPTEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current
grain market price prospects through late August 2015, when the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract will
then assume the lead contract role in the market. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off
SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as
other World grain markets. The “current crop” SEPTEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially
responded in a “positive” manner to the information in the July 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward
trended first higher then back lower.
On the day of the report – Friday, July 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) SEPTEMBER 2015 corn
futures prices opened at $4.28 per bushel, and traded in a range of $4.24 ¼ ‐ $4.39 ½ during the session,
before settling at $4.34 ¾ – UP $0.06 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released
at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then,
SEPTEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.43 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a low of $4.04 ½ on Monday,
July 20th before closing at $4.05 on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the lead “new crop” corn futures contract, representing
U.S. corn market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is
the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain
sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges here in the United States. The “new crop” DECEMBER 2015
corn futures market contract also initially responded “positively” to the information in the July 10th USDA
reports, and since then has trended first higher and then downward.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.38 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.34 ¼ ‐ $4.49 during the session, before settling at $4.45 – up $0.06 per bushel for the
day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has traded from a high of $4.54 ¼ on Tuesday, July 14th to a
low of $4.15 ¼ on Monday, July 20th before closing at $4.16 on that same day.
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Figure 1. SEPTEMBER 2015 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
April 12, 2024
International Grain Markets
2
U.S. COMPETITIVENESS … 5
U.S. DOLLAR & FOREIGN EXCHANGE … 6
U.S. Dollar Index – Daily Nearby …
December 8, 2022
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EU AGRICULTURAL EXPORT‐IMPORT 2022/23MY TRENDS
50% of energy system is destroyed
22% (7 … 59.7 % 47.1 % 15,469.6 6.13 8.01 ‐23.5 %Soybeans 1,279.5 … ↑31.4%
June 806.3 ↓‐0.1% 98.9 ↑36.7% 73.2 ↑4.7%
July …