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Annual Book
14
--Profitability Trends, 2001-2010 … 26
--Profitability Trends, 2001-2010 … 38
--Profitability Trends, 2001-2010 …
August 1, 2018
General Sessions
2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk & Profit Conference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
August 1, 2023
2023 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Risk & Profit Manhattan, Kansas25th August … 24 Aug 2023 = $79.05
July 2008 = $145.66
Mar 2022 = $123.70
Jun … 2021 - 56501st May 2008 - 11793
Ocean …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
2018
corn crop forward pricing prospects as well.
Second, the grain market continues to anticipate that low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong
usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring
2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, at least “moderate” continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderately weaker U.S. dollar against other World currencies compared to a year ago. Exports of
U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.925 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though
South American corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the
end of 2017. Also, preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage and production will be lower
due to low prices and poor profitability in 2017, as well as a …
March 1, 2013
Income, Selected Countries, 2008
Argentina
Source: USDA-FAS
U.S.
Canada
Australia
Japan
New … 12-18 months
- Should be profit opportunities on the horizon … will enjoy what share of the profits (cow-calf, background,
feedlots …
April 16, 2020
Land Buying and Valuing
of Directors
4 Kansas Farm Profitability Trends
6 State Land Value … Secretary/Treasurer
Mykel Taylor – Education/Events Coordinator
Fred Olsen – … K-State family.
Kansas Farm Profitability Trends
Welcome to the second …
November 1, 2009
Pork Quality Grading System and Wholesale Pork Price Reporting
2009
A Value Ag, LLC Report
Value … Report
Value Ag, LLC.
Columbia, MO
www.valueag.com … founder and
president of Value Ag.,
LLC. Value …
November 1, 2009
2009
A Value Ag, LLC Report
Value … Report
Value Ag, LLC.
Columbia, MO
www.valueag.com … founder and
president of Value Ag.,
LLC. Value …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
s
been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY
2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.335 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb.
Second, it is anticipated that low prices for U.S. corn will continue to help maintain strong usage for
domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are
expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American
corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage will be lower due to low prices and poor
profitability in 2017 – which may h …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… act grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the October 12th Crop Production report, the USDA adjusted its projection of a) 2017 U.S. corn plantings
at 90.429 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.575 ma from 2016), b) harvested acres of 83.119 ma (down 3.629 ma),
c) projected yields of 171.8 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), and d) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.280 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.625 bb – down 317 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.285 bb – down 362 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.240 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.295 bb (15.67% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.16 /bu from the
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midpoint estimate of $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 75% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields, and production
than projected by the USDA in the October 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “169.5 bu/ac – 14.059 bb” Scenario (20% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 169.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.059 bb production, 16.404 bb total
supplies, 14.241 bb total use, 2.164 bb ending stocks, 15.19% S/U, & $3.35 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.876 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac yield, 13.876 bb production, 16.221 bb total
supplies, 14.196 bb total use, 2.026 bb ending stocks, 14.27% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “169.5 bu/ac – 14.059 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 169.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.059 bb production, 16.404
bb total supplies, 13.926 bb total use, 2.479 bb ending stocks, 17.80% S/U, & ≈ $3.10 /bu U.S. corn
average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.295 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,038.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.4% from the record of 1,075.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.8% from 972.4 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,265.8 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from the
record high of 1,289.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,181.8 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.0% from the record
high of 163.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.9% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 201.0 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.0 mmt (22.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.8 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.2 mmt (13.8% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 22% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.4%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. October 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On October 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its October 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October 2017 Crop
Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements and
farmer surveys conducted between September 26th and October 5th to estimate expected U.S. corn yields as of
October 1st. The objective yield surveys for corn were conducted in the major producing states for
approximately 75% of U.S. corn production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA
enumerators, recording number of corn plants and ears, and ear weights in order to calculate the projected
2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these biological
yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August and September USDA NASS Crop Production
reports were revisited for the October report. The upcoming November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production
report will also be based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and harvested yield
reports, and actual in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions for fields remaining to be harvested. A final
USDA NASS Crop Production Summary report with an estimate of 2017 U.S. corn production will be reported
in January 2018.
I‐b. CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17
¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices have declined to lows of $3.44 ¼ on
August 31st, $3.42 ½ on October 12th, and $3.43 on October 23rd ‐ before closing at $3.52 ¾ on October 24th.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to
lows of $3.71 on August 31, 2017, $3.72 ½ on September 12th, $3.73 on October 12th, and $3.73 ¼ on October
23rd ‐ before closing at $3.82 ½ on October 24th.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Wednesday, October 25th in mid‐morning trading was $0.29 ½ per bushel (i.e., $3.83 ¼ for JULY 2018 Corn less
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$3.53 ¾ for DEC 2017 Corn), or $0.0421 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to
commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per
month – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of October 24, 2017)
ne …