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September 17, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk & Profit Conference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly
by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017. And fourth, the
always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World geo‐political events could provide an
unantic …
September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
…
Also, IF major geopolitical conflicts in key World ag production and usage area … in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and
bioenergy users ‐ have helped to increase profitability for corn‐using industries, and led to increased feedgrain
usage. A combination of these production and demand impacts over time are likely to eventually cause a
change in the prevailing “large crop – low price” market scenario in U.S. and World coarse grain markets.
USDA U.S. Corn Market Forecast: The USDA projected lower U.S. corn production, higher usage, moderately
tighter ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use, and marginally lower U.S. corn prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 than
for “old crop” MY 2014/15. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.686 billion bushels (bb) is up 156 million
bushels (mb) from July, but still down from 14.216 bb in 2014, with total supplies of 15.488 bb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16 being up from 15.477 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15. Record forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage
of 13.775 bb (up from 13.705 bb in MY 2014/15), includes ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 50 mb vs MY 2014/15),
non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.375 bb (up 20 mb vs last year), exports of 1.850 bb, and feed and residual use of 5.300
bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.713 bb (12.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – down from 1.772 bb
(12.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but still up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4%
S/U) in MY 2012/13. “New crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. avg. cash prices are forecast in the range of $3.35‐$3.95
/bu. (midpoint of $3.65) versus to $3.65‐$3.75 /bu ($3.70 midpoint) in MY 2014/15, and $4.46 in MY 2013/14.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “2015 Normal Crop 13.568 bb Production” Scenario (40% prob.): 88.897 ma
planted, 81.000 ma harvested, yield of 167.5 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.568 bb, total supplies of
15.370 bb, total use of 13.775 bb, ending stocks of 1.595 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b)
“2015 Smaller Normal Crop 13.365 bb Production” Scenario (50% prob.): 88.897 ma planted, 81.000 ma
harvested, yield of 165.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.365 bb, total supplies of 15.167 bb, total use
of 13.700 bb, ending stocks of 1.467 bb, 10.7% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Short Crop
12.555 bb Production” Scenario (10% prob.): Planted / harvested acres same as scenarios (a) & (b), but with a
KSU low yield of 155.0 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 12.555 bb, total supplies of 14.317 bb, total use of
13.415 bb, ending stocks of 902 mb, 6.72% S/U, & $6.90 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, up from 1,181 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1,128 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected
World corn ending stocks of 195.1 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down marginally from
197.4 mmt (20.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 175.0 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. August USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On August 12th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in its Crop Production report
made its’ first projection of 2015 U.S. corn production as of August 1, 2015 that was based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials. On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its
August 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World
corn supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2015
and will last through August 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME DEC 2015 & MAY 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2015 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off DEC 2015 corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “very negative” manner to the
information in the August 12th USDA reports, but in the days afterward have trended “first higher then
sideways”. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, August 12th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) DECEMBER 2015
corn futures prices opened at $3.87 ¾ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.57 ½ ‐ $3.93 ½ during the
session, before settling at $3.68 – down $0.19 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.65 ½ on Monday, August 24th to a high of $3.86 ¾ on Tuesday, August 25th to before
closing at $3.75 ¼ on Monday, August 31st.
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2015 & MAY 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts …
February 20, 2020
Outlook
Glynn T. Tonsor
Dept. of Ag. Economics,
Kansas State … information:
https://www.asi.k-state.edu/events/stocker-
conference.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpTyq3SuZn
8&list=PLst4YxRiGX9RSG0UO4WcavXCkwJmQz7Iw
&index=2&t=0s
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February 21, 2020
Outlook
Glynn T. Tonsor
Dept. of Ag. Economics,
Kansas State … information:
https://www.asi.k-state.edu/events/stocker-
conference.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpTyq3SuZn
8&list=PLst4YxRiGX9RSG0UO4WcavXCkwJmQz7Iw
&index=2&t=0s
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August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Professor
2022 KSU Risk and Profit Conference
Alumni Center … Protection
https://agmanager.info/events/risk-and-profit-conference/previous-
conferen … ce-proceedings/2017-risk-and-profit-conference/14
https://www.marginprotection.com/
What …
December 28, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
r U.S.
and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity
markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. corn exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide an unantici …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
s
been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new crop” MY
2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.335 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb.
Second, it is anticipated that low prices for U.S. corn will continue to help maintain strong usage for
domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are
expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American
corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage will be lower due to low prices and poor
profitability in 2017 – which may h …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
s for “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been up to 2.370 bb rather than down to 1.000 bb.
Second, it is anticipated that low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S.
ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least fall‐winter 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and a moderate weakening of the U.S. dollar against other World currencies. Exports of U.S. corn are expected
to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.850 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Also,
preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage will be lower due to low prices and poor
profitability in 2017 – which may h …