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November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
2018
corn crop forward pricing prospects as well.
Second, the grain market continues to anticipate that low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong
usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring
2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, at least “moderate” continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderately weaker U.S. dollar against other World currencies compared to a year ago. Exports of
U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.925 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though
South American corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the
end of 2017. Also, preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage and production will be lower
due to low prices and poor profitability in 2017, as well as a …
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
al use of 13.550 bb, ending stocks of 966 mb, 7.13% S/U, & $6.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,163 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,124 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,000 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
188.5 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 170.8 mmt (17.9% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 135.4 mmt (15.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.53 and CME
DEC‐2015 corn futures of $3.83 ¼ on 4/30/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.48 favors the planting of
soybeans in the United States in 2015. A lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is
likely to limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and 2015 corn production potential, and to provide at least a
moderate amount of support for U.S. corn prices in “new crop” MY 2015/16 in the spring and early summer.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. March USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On April 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2012/13, 2013/14, as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The
2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015. In its upcoming 12th WASDE report the
USDA will release projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for corn, grain sorghum, wheat,
soybeans and other major crops.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for Spring 2014‐March 2015 Period
During January‐April 2015 U.S. corn futures prices have generally declined, with the lowest prices coming
in late April. The market’s response since the April 9th USDA WASDE report has mirror and exacerbated this
trend. After a low on December 3rd of $3.77 ¼, the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract climbed to a high of
$4.12 ¾ on December 29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same
day) before declining to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th. Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th,
the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½, and eventually closed out at $3.74 on
March 13th. During this same period of time the CME MAY 2015 corn futures contract traded as high as to
$4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th, and $3.80 ½ on March 13th. After the
December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above
$4.00 per bushel – at least through Wednesday, April 29th.
The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late April 2015, when the CME JULY 2015 corn contract will assume market
leadership. Local basis adjustments are still currently being made off MAY 2015 corn futures for spot cash corn
and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “current crop” MAY
2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative manner to the information in
the April 9th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐lower”. On the day of the report –
Thursday, April 9th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MAY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.79 per
bushel, and traded in a range of $3.75 ‐ $3.80 during the session, before settling at $3.78 – down $0.01 ¼ for
the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00
noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAY 2015 has traded from a high of $3.81 ¾ on
Monday, April 20th to a low of $3.59 on Tuesday, April 28th before closing at $3.63 ¾ on Wednesday, April 29th.
In early May 2015, CME JUNE 2015 corn futures will become the lead corn futures contract. On Wednesday,
April 29th the CME June corn futures contract closed at $3.67 ¾.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “new crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids or hedges in North American and other World grain markets. The “new crop” DECEMBER
2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a “neutral‐to‐negative” manner to the
Page | 3
information in the April 9th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐lower”. On the day of the
report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.04 ½ per bushel, trading within the range of
$4.00 ½ ‐ $4.05 ¼ during the session, before settling at $4.03 ½ – down $0.01 ¼ per bushel for the day (Figure
1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices has traded from a high of $4.04 ¾ on Monday, April 20th
to a low of $3.80 ¾ on Tuesday, April 28th before closing at $3.85 ½ that on Wednesday, April 29th.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
August 1, 2021
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil. Head$ Per Cow
COW … 2021
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 8/12/21’) (http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
June 21’: +$12/steer
LOTS OF INDUSTRY ISSUES – …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil. Head$ Per Cow
COW … 2021
Data Source: USDA‐AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns (as of 8/12/21’) (http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
June 21’: +$12/steer
LOTS OF INDUSTRY ISSUES – …
January 31, 2022
Ag Law Issues
many “happenings” in ag law and tax in 2021 which … for other significant life events. By waiting until estate … aff’d., 601 F.3d 763 (8th
Cir. 2010). In any …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
14.897 bb, total use of 13.510 bb, ending stocks of 1.387 bb, 10.27% S/U, & $4.25 /bu U.S.
corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,162 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,125 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,000 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
185.3 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172.1 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 138 mmt (15.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.51 ¼ and CME
DEC‐2015 corn futures of $4.04 ¼ on 3/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 continues to be neutral
for the two crops in the United States. That said, a lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest
prices is likely to limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and 2015 corn production potential, and to provide at least
a moderate amount of support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16 in the spring and early summer.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. March USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On March 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The 2013/14
marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year began
on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for Spring 2014‐March 2015 Period
A time of seasonal market weakness for feed grains typically has occurred during the months of January‐
February in large crop – low price years. And that was largely the case in January‐February 2015. After a low
on December 3rd of $3.77 ¼, the CME MARCH 2015 corn contract climbed to a high of $4.12 ¾ on December
29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same day) before declining
to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th. Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th, the CME MARCH
2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½. During this same period of time the CME MAY corn
futures contract traded as high as to $4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th. After
the December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above
$4.00 per bushel – at least through Friday, March 13th.
The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late April 2015. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off MAY
2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World
grain markets. The “current crop” MAY 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the March 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐
lower”. On the day of the report – Tuesday, March 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015
corn futures prices opened at $3.88 per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.83 ¼ ‐ $3.91 ¼ during the session,
before settling at $3.88 – down $0.00 ¾ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly
released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then,
MAY 2015 has traded from a high of $3.93 ¾ on Wednesday, March 11th to a low of $3.80 ¼ on Friday, March
13th before closing at $3.80 ½ that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through late‐November 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids or hedges in North American and other World grain markets. The “next crop” DECEMBER
2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a “neutral‐to‐negative” manner to the
information in the March 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended “sideways‐to‐lower”. On the day of
the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.12 per bushel, trading within the range of
$4.07 ¾ ‐ $4.14 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.12 ½ – down $0.00 ½ per bushel for the day (Figure
1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices has traded from a high of $4.17 ½ on Wednesday, March
11th to a low of $4.04 ½ on Friday, March 13th before closing at $4.04 ¾ that same day.
Page | 3
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
October 22, 2019
Grain Marketing Presentations
Market Outlook for 2020
KSU Ag Econ 520
Kansas State University … Oilseeds)
2
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2019 U.S … seedings in 2019
o Struggling profitability for 2013-2018 HRW Wheat
3
More …
June 9, 2012
Tonsor)
2
Events Summary
• State-by-State … new facilities after Dec. 2010
– No new permits for … pasture access
• May 2010; 800 surveys across U.S …
January 14, 2016
Overview
Glynn Tonsor
Dept. of Ag. Economics
Kansas State … Demand
– Been positive 2010-2015
– Concerns grown … 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Mil. Head
Th
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December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas
Wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, December 28th was $0.22 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less
$4.09 ½ for MARCH 2017 Wheat), or $0.05625 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MARCH 2017 to JULY 2017 would
at least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.05625 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the
March‐July 2017 period. Along these same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …