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December 27, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Since 1992 there have been negative correlations of ‐0.777 and ‐0.795 between the U.S. Trade Weighted
dollar index and the Texas Gulf HRW Wheat and Kansas City, Missouri Wheat cash prices for Ordinary protein
levels, respectively. This indicates that cash prices of U.S. wheat – denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars –
have a strong negative or inverse relationship with the value of the U.S. dollar over this time‐period.
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the December 12th Crop Production report, the USDA projected 2017 U.S. wheat planted acreage to be
46.012 million acres (ma) – down 4.107 ma (‐8.2%) from 50.119 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 8.987 ma (‐
16.3%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, and down 19.05% from 56.841 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4). KSU
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: The December 12th USDA Crop Production report
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.696 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.456 ma (‐
9.6%) to 36.152 ma in 2016, down 6.985 ma (‐17.6%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.713 ma (‐22.9%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.534 ma (‐24.4%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With continued low winter wheat prices in Kansas, associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations in 2017 of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic in some parts of the state, it
is likely that seeded acreage of Kansas hard red winter wheat will trend lower in 2018. Hard red winter (HRW)
wheat in Kansas is typically seeded in during the mid‐September through October time‐period. The initial
survey estimates of U.S. and Kansas winter wheat seeded acres will be given in the USDA Winter Wheat and
Canola Seedings report to be released on January 12, 2018.
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U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Wtd …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-02
December … yields or prices, as well as
profits from high yields or prices … fertilizer example.
For the most profitable production,
fertilizer will …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader … 1999 Act
until Sept. 30, 2010, and amended the swine reporting … A final rule
on April 2, 2010, established regulatory authority …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
medication while Chen and Chen (2010) explicitly use a system … depends on what Richmond (2010) describes as
horizontal … phenomena of interest. Richmond (2010) classifies these thinking …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
By:
Value Ag, LLC
Joe Parcell
parcellj99@gmail.com … System. He is founder of
Value Ag., LLC. ValueAg,
LLC, headquartered in … University from May 2006
to March 2010 and then
joined the Kansas …
January 1, 2013
Land Leasing
Forms
USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-06
February … many farm enterprises to be profitable and sustainable.
Leasing … Arrangements
Generally, the percent of profits each
party receives is based …
September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada 105,895 238,556 … 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Canada 302,211 324,935 … 2006;
Schulz and Tonsor, 2010a,b). Furthermore, the U.S …
Summary Book - All Counties
23
2020 Crop Profit Centers … a measure of the economic profitability of the farm including opportunity … Charges) / VFP
Operating Profit Ratio (Line 60)
Provides …
acquired after September 27, 2010, and held for more than five … 10 percent on all foreign profits currently deferred.
Eliminates … before guidance issued in 2010o Disposition of activity …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The first set of scenarios compare doing nothing (status quo) to adopting
full animal tracing for just the bovine sector. The bovine sector is the
focus here because it is it the sector among bovine, porcine, ovine, and
poultry that would incur the largest adoption cost of NAIS practices.
Under the status quo scenarios, we further explore what the impacts are
if by doing nothing we also lose export market access. We are likely to
lose export market access over time if we do not adopt NAIS practices,
even without any major market or major animal disease event, because
the international marketplace is making animal identification and tracing
systems the norm and any country that does not conform will have less
market access.
Table 2 summarizes the total loss per head to producers in the beef
sector, after all markets adjust as a result of not adopting NAIS practices
(i.e., status quo) under 0%, 10%, 25%, and 50% permanent export
market losses for beef. If we do nothing to adopt NAIS, and nothing
happens to export markets, the result is no cost, no market loss. If we do
nothing and we lose market access, which we believe is likely, the beef
industry will suffer losses. The losses would amount to $18.25 per head if
we do not adopt NAIS and we lose 25% of export market share. To put
this into perspective, this would be about like losing access to the South
Korean export market at 2003 export market shares.
Table 2. Net Annual Loss in Beef Producer Surplus from Status Quo
with Varying Export Market Losses
Export Market Loss Incurred
0% …