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2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … North Platte, NE new plant 1,500/hd/day • Many other announcements
Correlation of Slaughter Capacity Utilization & Relative Prices (Live Steer vs Comp. Boxed Beef) = ‐0.86
Also note this strong correlation makes no adjustment for cost changes (e.g. COVID PPE etc.)
2005‐2020 Simple Average: Live Steer Prices are 60.5% of Comp. Boxed Beef Price …
February 24, 2022
Recent Videos
2022
Many types of risk
Production Risk:
Events such as disease or
weather that can lead to a
decline in production/weight
gain or mortality
Feed Risk
If crop/forage yield
decreases, feed may become
expensive or difficult to
purchase
Price Risk
Market price might drop,
even to the point of not
covering the cost of
production
“The Federal Crop
Insurance Program”
Private‐public partnershipPrivate‐public partnership
Well‐established for row cropsWell‐established for row crops
Some insurance products
available for livestock producers
Some insurance products
available for livestock producers
Why formally insure?
• …
August 1, 2023
Breakout Sessions
79% of those interviewed had experience a wildfire event
77% of these experienced one every 1 to 5 years.
… 29% use prescribed burns to help mitigate.
Other practices – fire breaks …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
World Soybean Total Supplies of 367 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 341 mmt in “current year”
MY 2013/14, and up from 321 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World soybean ending stocks of 82 mmt (29.3%
S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 67.0 mmt (24.8% S/U) in “current year” MY 2013/14, and up from
57.0 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
March 26, 2021
Meat Demand Research Studies
due to policy or COVID-like events), and
price increases … markets are inelastic and others are elastic, pointing to … in opposite directions in
other cases (where demand is elastic …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
because they did
not consider other error sources apart from … likelihood
function, and all others are as previously defined … iThink®, Stella®, Vensim®, and others, SD models have increasingly …
March 1, 2013
Philippines 123 105 105 109 4% 4
Other Asia 461 538 573 912 70 … 1,070 1,080 1,191 11% 121
Other Europe 67 57 57 65 14% 8 … 217 230 230 311 35% 81
Other N. Africa & M. East 793 728 …