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September 27, 2012
necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12
Livestock … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
03/21/12Livestock …
March 1, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
landowners, but do create legal risk. Before
entering into an … truly outweigh the associated risk.
Liability Concerns … important point. In early 2010, the author received copies …
Breakout Sessions
2014 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … State
University in March 2010 as an Assistant Professor … University
from May 2006 to March 2010. Glynn's current efforts …
April 29, 2024
Recent Videos
interest rates are up; narrowing profit margins and farm income forecasts.
… Price Targets, (the price/profit you’ll sell at);3. Date … time do not include price/profit and date targets. For example:
…
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
as ethanol plants on September 1st ranged from $3.22 ¾ ($0.35 under
Page | 2
DEC) to $3.72 ¾ ($0.15 over DEC) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and
nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas
grain markets, it is a positive that Kansas cash corn prices have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer production risk. The corn market has b …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ough winter 2017‐
2018 on into early Spring 2018 are likely to be limited by ending stocks of U.S. corn in the 2.250‐2.500 bb
range, coupled with ending stocks‐to‐use of 16.0%‐17.5% for the 2017/18 marketing year. However, in
Spring‐early Summer 2018 the U.S. corn market is likely again to have to weigh the annual risk of weather‐
limiting 201 …
August 1, 2021
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil. Head$ Per Cow
COW … Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?Use BeefBasis.com
KSU‐Feeder Cattle Risk Management Toolhttps://www …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil. Head$ Per Cow
COW … Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?Use BeefBasis.com
KSU‐Feeder Cattle Risk Management Toolhttps://www …
May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
A Deferred Future “Carrying Charge” View of KS HRW Winter Wheat Futures
On May 6th carrying charges between the JULY 2019 to SEPTEMBER 2019 Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts (i.e., the JUL‐SEP 2019 Spread) were $0.11 per bushel, or $0.0550 per bushel per month. This
compares to spreads of $0.22 /bu or $0.0733 /bu/mo. for SEP‐DEC 2019, and $0.2250 /bu or $0.0750 /bu/mo.
for DEC 2019‐MAR 2020 Kansas HRW Wheat futures contracts.
These “full carry” deferred futures full contract storage cost contract spreads are influenced by large
supplies on hand – which leads to higher Variable Storage Rates (VSR) among Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts. These large carries are encouraging storage of “new crop” 2019 Kansas HRW wheat on the one
hand, and provide the basis for a potential return to storage hedges by producers and grain elevators for the
2019 HRW wheat crop on the other.
Extending this analysis further to later deferred contracts, whereas on May 6th harvest JULY 2019 Kansas
HRW Wheat futures closed at $4.03 /bu, the JULY 2020 contract closed at $4.84 ¾ /bu for JULY 2020 – up
20.2% and $0.0681 /bu/month from JULY 2019. Extending even further into the next year, on May 6th JULY
2021 KS HRW Wheat closed at $5.42 ½ /bu, up 11.9% and $0.0479 /bu/month from JULY 2020
From an economic viewpoint, these deferred years’ JULY Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices in years 2020
& 2021 could reflect market expectations that HRW wheat futures prices will eventually be higher than
current bids for JULY 2019 futures – which is consistent with economic theory. However, it also seems that
the carrying charges now reflected across the range of available deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts
appear to be being extended out to the distant “new crop” JULY 2020 and JULY 2021 contracts.
Restated, it appears these uninterrupted positive carrying charges are being inflexibly and mechanically
applied to deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts as far as 24 months into the future – regardless of what
expected fundamental supply‐demand conditions may be in the wheat market that far out. If this is so, then
these deferred futures prices may present: a) opportunities for long‐term market arbitrage positions to
traders, or b) hedging opportunities for U.S. wheat producers IF they are able to financially manage the risk of
potential margin call …
August 12, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
with their marketing
and risk management decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … 7.77, 2011/12 was $7.24, and 2010/11 was $5.70. The MYA 2009/10 … setting 2014
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) on wheat …