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September 27, 2012
market impact compared
to 2011
• Eventually: return … necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2006-
010
2011
2012
G-NP-30
09/24/12Livestock …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Uncertainty?
Amber Oerly, Risk & Profit 2022
Overview
• U.S. beef cow herd declining since 2020
• … Costs, structure, technology, demographics, climate, and barriers to
entry/asset fixity impact herd expansion/contraction decisions
• Unexpected events disrupted supply chains and created economic,
environmental, and social uncertainty in beef industry
• …
February 4, 2013
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Solutions
2013 Risk & Financial Management Conference
Brian C. Briggeman
Associate Professor and
Director of the Arthur Capper Cooperative Center
• … Herd liquidation continues?
3. Uncertainty of macro events outside of producers’ control
Will agriculture boom or bust in 2013?
2/4/2013
2
While the drought dinged net farm incomes in
2012, incomes were some of the largest on record.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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29
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92
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98
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01
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07
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10
2005 Constant Dollars (Billions)
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Net Farm Income
20
12
F
USDA forecasts 2012
NFI to decline 5%
Ending Stocks‐to‐Daily Use
Source: USDA PS&D Data
The 2012 drought made an already tight stock
situation even tighter.
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90
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92
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Corn
0
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350
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90
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98
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Wheat
20 year average
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98
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SoybeansDays Available …
Breakout Sessions
2013 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … market information; analyzing profit due to underlying asset price … price changes
as opposed to profit due to option mispricing …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Associate Professor
2022 KSU Risk andProfit Conference
Alumni Center … Protection
https://agmanager.info/events/risk-and-profit-conference/previous-
conferen … conference-proceedings/2017-risk-and-profit-conference/14
https://www.marginprotection.com/
What …
February 23, 2012
Beef cows = -1.09% (1975-2011)
JANUARY 1 FEEDER … 4366
National Herd:
- 3.1% (vs. 2011)
Smallest since
1962
20 … COWS NUMBERS
JANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 2012
(1000 Head …
October 21, 2020
Livestock Insurance, Crop Insurance Papers, 2020 K-State Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Backgrounded feeder cattle under new provisions
Livestock insurance options by type of risk
Production
FeedPrice
LRP
PR … DRP
MPCI
WFRP
Production RiskEvents such as disease or weather that can lead to a decline in production/weight gain or mortalityPrice RiskMarket price might drop, even to the point of not covering the cost of productionFeed RiskIf crop/forage yield decreases, feed may become expensive or difficult to purchase
Policies in red are never …
Breakout Sessions
2014 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … and designing and adopting risk management instruments
to … Historical Impacts of Precipitation
and Temperature on Farm
Production in Kansas
David Lambert
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Slides prepared for the Risk & Profit Conference
August 21‐22, 2014
Overview of the talk:
• …
April 29, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
April 28, 2020
Recent events in the U.S. economy caused … crop”
MY 2020/21.
Risk Avoiding Market Responses … corn producers making these profit maximizing / loss
minimizing …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Lingering 2018 U.S. Fall Harvest Delays: As of November 25, 2018 the U.S. corn harvest was estimated
to be 94% complete in the 18 major states – compared to the recent 5 year average of 95% completed.
Moderate end of season harvest delays still lingered in states such as Kansas (94% harvested vs 99% 5‐
yr avg.); Nebraska (94% harvested vs 97% average); North Dakota (80% harvested vs 93% avg.); Ohio
(86% harvested vs 93% avg.); Pennsylvania (82% harvested vs 89% avg.); and South Dakota (90%
harvested vs 97% avg.); To complicate matters in these areas, precipitation in the form of snow had
fallen in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and North and South Dakota over the November 19‐
26 period – further slowing harvest in these areas.
The accumulated result of these slow harvest and recent precipitation events will be to delay the final
part of the 2018 U.S. corn harvest to some degree – providing at least moderate uncertainty about final
2018 U.S. corn production and some support for corn prices through the conclusion of the U.S. Fall harvest.
…