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Breakout Sessions
2012 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … work in cropping systems profitability, since the passage of the … SURE
Establishes Ag Risk Coverage (ARC)
Maintains …
Breakout Sessions
2012 Risk andProfit Conference
Breakout Session … depreciation was 100 % in 2011 and isBonus depreciation wa … isBonus depreciation was 100 % in 2011 and is
50% in 2012.
2012 Marginal tax rates
d …
September 17, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
for 2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk &Profit Conference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
However, a number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price
prospects – including strong exports, developing harvest delays from wet fall weather, ongoing strong ethanol
usage, and uncertain South American corn production prospects in in 2019.
Strong U.S. Corn Exports: In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been strong – above the pace
needed to meet the USDA’s October 11th updated forecast of 2.475 bb in exports for “new crop” MY
2018/19. For the weeks ending September 27th and October 4th, the U.S. had corn export shipments of
55.4 and 53.2 million bushels (mb), respectively. These were above the pace of 47.8 mb needed to meet
the USDA forecast of 2.475 bb – which had already been raised by 75 mb in the October 11th USDA WASDE
report. Accumulated exports of 228.6 mb as of October 4th were 9.2% of the 2.475 bb USDA projection for
“new crop” MY 2018/19. Total shipments and forward sales as of 10/4/2018 were 775.5 mb – equaling
31.3% of the USDA’s 2.475 bb projection with 7.7% (4 or 52 weeks) of “new crop” MY 2018/19 completed
(Table 1 & Figures 10‐11).
As a result, strong positive signals exist for U.S. corn exports to remain strong in coming months –
providing support for U.S. corn prices.
Developing 2018 U.S. Fall Harvest Delays: As of October 7, 2018 the U.S. corn harvest was estimated to be
34% complete in the 18 major states – compared to the recent 5 year average of 26% completed.
However, since October 8th the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that
rainfall as much as 200% to 400% or more above normal has been received in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt
from Texas north, through Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, parts of Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota,
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Minnesota and Wisconsin. In addition, the eastern states of Georgia, North and South Carolina, and
elsewhere have been affected. Precipitation from Kansas to the north fell in the form of snow.
The result of these accumulated precipitation events will be to delay the 2018 U.S. corn harvest to some
degree – providing at least moderate support for corn prices through the remainder of the U.S. Fall harvest.
Ongoing Strong Ethanol Use: According to Environmental Information Administration (EIA) data, for the
period of September 1st through October 5th, 2018, U.S. ethanol production has averaged 1.032 million
barrels per day (range of 1.02 to 1.051 mb/d). Assuming 42 gallons of ethanol per barrel, and 2.8 gallons
of ethanol per bushel of either corn or grain sorghum used in the production process, this rate of U.S.
ethanol production would result in 5.592 bb of U.S. feedgrain use for ethanol. Assuming approximately
75‐100 mb of U.S. grain sorghum to be used for ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2018/19, at the
current pace of usage there would be 5.000‐5.250 bb of U.S. corn used for ethanol production over the
same period. This amount of ethanol use would be down 450‐650 mb from the USDA’s projection of
record high 5.650 bb use for ethanol (Table 1, Figures 9abc‐10).
However, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent action to approve the use of E15 on a season‐
round basis in U.S. motor fuels may lead to increased feedgrain use for ethanol during the remainder of
“new crop” MY 2018/19 through August 31, 2019.
Taken together, these results indicated continued strong use of U.S. feedgrains in general and U.S. corn
in particular in domestic ethanol production.
Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be formally termed
to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export purchases have shifted
completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World soybean producing countries.
The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are estimated to be more than $2.00
per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price differential favoring South American soybeans,
it makes sense that South American farmers will have an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and
production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean acreage
will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically accounts for 1/3
of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically enters World export
markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
…
July 18, 2012
Energy
increased from 17% from 2002 to 2011 ..........................................................................9
Figure … de-
clined from 2002 to 2011 .........................................................................................................................................10
Figure …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
increased from 17% from 2002 to 2011 ..........................................................................9
Figure … de-
clined from 2002 to 2011 .........................................................................................................................................10
Figure …
March 11, 2022
Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
Hence, even with higher revenue projections net profit remained uncertain
• … Expanded livestock producer, price risk management resources
• … Corn
Markets Often Operate Like A Pendulum Consider 2019 Holcomb Event
Higher Grain Price Impacts: Primarily A Supply‐Side Story• …
August 1, 2021
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED … 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
$ Per Cow
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2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts … 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED … 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED …