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April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016 before declining approximately $0.90 per bushel by early
July. Then, following lows of $4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
February 18, 2016 – April 18, 2017
Close = $4.74 ¼ on 4/18/2017
MAY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
February 18, 2016 – April 18, 2017
Close = $4.19 ¼ on 4/18/2017
Page | 4
on December 1, 2016, DEC 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high
of $5.30 ¾ on February 16, 2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
futures then traded lower – down to a low of $4.68 ½ on March 31st and $4.69 on April 18th before
closing at $4.74 ¼ that same day (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Tuesday, April 18th was $0.12 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less $4.19 ¼ for MAY
2017 Wheat), or $0.06375 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MAY 2017 to JULY 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.06375 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the May‐July
2017 period. Along this same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
February 20, 2020
information:
https://www.asi.k-state.edu/events/stocker-
conference.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpTyq3SuZn
8&list=PLst4YxRiGX9RSG0UO4WcavXCkwJmQz7Iw
&index=2&t=0s
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Mil. Head
HEIFERS …
February 21, 2020
information:
https://www.asi.k-state.edu/events/stocker-
conference.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpTyq3SuZn
8&list=PLst4YxRiGX9RSG0UO4WcavXCkwJmQz7Iw
&index=2&t=0s
60
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140
0 … 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Mil. Head
HEIFERS …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.80 ¼ on 5/19/2017
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
March 21, 2016 – May 19, 2017
Close = $4.38 on 5/19/2017
Page | 4
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016. Then DEC 2017 HRW wheat futures declined to lows of
$4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½ on December 1, 2016. DEC
2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures then traded up to a high of $5.30 ¾ on February 16,
2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat futures then traded lower –
down to a low of $4.67 on April 25th before rising to $5.09 on May 2nd before closing at $4.80 ¼ on
Friday, May 19th (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and DEC 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Friday, May 19th was $0.42 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.80 ¼ for DEC 2017 less $4.38 for JULY
2017 Wheat), or $0.07042 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from JULY 2017 to DEC 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.07042 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the May‐July
2017 period. Along this same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-01
December 2011
©2011 by the North Central Farm … farming
arrangement leaves all risk with the landowner.
Similarily …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-02
December 2011
©2011 by the North Central Farm … expenses for tax purposes.
• Risks due to low yields or prices …
August 1, 2018
General Sessions
for 2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk &Profit Conference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S … HRW wheat $’s in 2018?
o Profits for 2018 Kansas HRW Wheat …
March 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
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September 26, 2022
Industry Economics & Trade
of 2.056 billion pounds in 2011. The five-year average
from … harmonized system (HS) codes 2011, 2012, 2013, 2021, 2022 2023 … the
previous five years (2011-2015). Boneless beef includes …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-03
December 2011
©2011 by the North Central Farm … would shift some of the risk, and the
probability of …