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May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas HRW Winter Wheat Futures & Cash Markets
Hard red winter wheat market prices in the U.S. have continued to weaken since late January 2019, with
declines in futures prices somewhat mitigated by stronger basis levels in Kansas Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat cash markets.
After reaching highs of $6.34 on August 8, 2018, and $5.35 ½ on January 24, 2019, JULY 2019 HRW Wheat
futures had declined down to lows of $3.90 ½ on Tuesday, April 30th and $3.91 ½ on Monday, May 6th – before
closing at $4.03 the same day. The closing price of $4.03 on May 6th is down 36.4% from the August 2018
high, and down 24.7% from the January 2019 high.
In central Kansas terminal markets on Monday, May 6th reflect these same lower price trends but with
relatively strong basis levels compared to past large supply years. These prices reflect cash market sentiments
immediately after the 2019 Kansas Wheat Tour (April 30‐May 2), and four days ahead of the scheduled USDA
Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply‐Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports due on May 10th.
On May 6th Central Kansas cash wheat price terminal quotes for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW ranged from
$3.72 to $3.93 per bushel – with basis ranging from $0.31 to $0.08 under JULY 2019 KS HRW Wheat futures.
Cash wheat prices in eastern Kansas grain terminals in Topeka and Atchison ranged from $3.78 to $3.93 /bu
with basis ranging from $0.25 to $0.10 under JULY 2019 futures. These prices have declined to where they are
only moderately above the range of $3.42 ¼ to $3.83 ¼ /bu that occurred in late December 2017 in eastern
and central Kansas. However, basis levels at that time were much wider (i.e., “weaker”), being from $0.80
under to $0.39 under nearby MARCH 2018 futures (Figure 2).
In comparison, in western Kansas on May 6th, bids for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW wheat at selected major
grain elevators ranged from $3.53 to $3.74 /bu, with basis being $0.50 to $0.29 under JULY 2019 futures.
Recent wheat cash price bids in western Kansas are only marginally higher than the lows of $3.47 to $3.64 /bu
that occurred in late December 2017 in this same area – when local basis varied from $0.85 under to $0.58
under MARCH 2018 futures.
A Hard White Wheat (HWW) grain terminal bid was available in Wichita, Kansas on May 6th for $3.95 per
bushel, with a basis of $0.08 /bu under JULY 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures. On March 22, 2019 this bid was
$4.4000 /bu, with a basis of $0.05 /bu under MAY 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures.
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