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September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
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enactment (7/31/15) as well as to previously filed returns that are still … 10 percent on all foreign profits currently deferred.
Eliminates … can put the plan itself at risk.• To solve the problem …
September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … electricity?
We know from the previous discussion that
to make …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The first set of scenarios compare doing nothing (status quo) to adopting
full animal tracing for just the bovine sector. The bovine sector is the
focus here because it is it the sector among bovine, porcine, ovine, and
poultry that would incur the largest adoption cost of NAIS practices.
Under the status quo scenarios, we further explore what the impacts are
if by doing nothing we also lose export market access. We are likely to
lose export market access over time if we do not adopt NAIS practices,
even without any major market or major animal disease event, because
the international marketplace is making animal identification and tracing
systems the norm and any country that does not conform will have less
market access.
Table 2 summarizes the total loss per head to producers in the beef
sector, after all markets adjust as a result of not adopting NAIS practices
(i.e., status quo) under 0%, 10%, 25%, and 50% permanent export
market losses for beef. If we do nothing to adopt NAIS, and nothing
happens to export markets, the result is no cost, no market loss. If we do
nothing and we lose market access, which we believe is likely, the beef
industry will suffer losses. The losses would amount to $18.25 per head if
we do not adopt NAIS and we lose 25% of export market share. To put
this into perspective, this would be about like losing access to the South
Korean export market at 2003 export market shares.
Table 2. Net Annual Loss in Beef Producer Surplus from Status Quo
with Varying Export Market Losses
Export Market Loss Incurred
0% …
November 1, 2009
Pork Quality Grading System and Wholesale Pork Price Reporting
research in
livestock market risk
management, beef demand … handling, food safety,
price risk management and
analysis …
November 1, 2009
research in
livestock market risk
management, beef demand … handling, food safety,
price risk management and
analysis …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
RISK &PROFIT CONFERENCEMANHATTAN, KANSASAUGUST 17, 2018
Roger … applies– Payments under previous orders are grandfathered … purchase tickets to athletic events at higher education institution• …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
Value of a Land Sale
The previous section described the present … Can I Pay for Land?
The previous sections showed how the present … land parcel’s expected
profitability – because owner equity …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
Value of a Land Sale
The previous section described the present … Can I Pay for Land?
The previous sections showed how the present … land parcel’s expected
profitability – because owner equity …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification … function, and all others are as previously defined. Srinivasan and Mason’s …