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August 1, 2023
2023 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Risk &Profit Manhattan, Kansas25th August … Ukrainian boarder, Significant risk of expanding conflict
Civil … India, etc…)
Geo-Political Risks
Source: Barchart - https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DXY00/interactive-chart
Current …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … farming
arrangement leaves all risk with the landowner.
Similarily … price, cost, and
production risks.
6. Income under the lease …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Y 2017/18 with
total use of 737.05 mmt (2nd highest behind 739.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
World wheat exports are also projected to trend marginally lower to 179.9 mmt in the “new crop” MY
2017/18 – down from a record high of 182.3 mmt last year, but up from 172.9 mmt two years ago.
World wheat ending stocks are forecast to be a record high 264.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 ‐ up
from the previous record of 258.6 mmt last …
August 15, 2022
Ag Law Issues
Coverage (PLC) Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC), marketing … Coverage Option
(SCO). It is a risk management tool that is designed … subsidized).
ARC is a risk management tool that addresses …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ections to 2026, in which they projected 2017 U.S.
wheat plantings of 48.500 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in 2015. The USDA also forecast 2016
harvested acres of 41.100 ma which would be down from 43.890 ma a year ago. Trendline 2017 wheat yields
for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac, while 2017 U.S. wheat
production is forecast to be 1.936 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015. Projected “next crop” MY
2017/18 total supplies are 3.199 bb (down from 3.410 bb in “current” MY 2016/17), with total use of 2.206 bb
(down from 2.267 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks of 933 million bushels (mb)
(vs 1.143 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.0% S/U (vs 50.4% last year and 50.0% the
previous year). United States wheat average prices are projected to average $4.00 /bu – up from $3.70 in
“current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed
by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of
occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume lower 2017 U.S. planted (47.624 ma) and harvested (38.385 ma)
wheat acres than the USDA – due to larger than normal amounts of “graze out” and “crop switching” in 2017.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18:
47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb total supplies,
960 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total use, 876 mb ending stocks, 39.98% S/U, & $4.00‐
$4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield, +20% Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb
total supplies, 1.152 bb exports***, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.383 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks,
24.10% S/U, & $5.25‐$5.75 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Acres, Short Crop Yield” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac low yield***, 1.674 bb production, 2.937 bb
total supplies, 925 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.156 bb total use, 781 mb ending stocks, 36.22%
S/U, & $4.40‐$4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
xt crop” MY 2017/18, 2017 U.S. wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059 million acres (ma) – down from
50.154 ma in 2015. Harvested acres for 2016 are forecast to be 39.050 ma – down from 43.890 ma a year ago.
Trendline 2017 wheat yields for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac,
while the adjusted 2017 U.S. wheat production forecast is 1.839 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in
2015. Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.118 bb (down from 3.395 bb in “current” MY
2016/17), with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.236 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the adjusted USDA projection of “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks equals 927
million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 42.3% S/U (vs 51.8% last
year and 50.0% the previous year). United States’ wheat prices are projected to average approximately $4.25
/bu – up from $3.85 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY
2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY
2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend
yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 190 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total
use, 937 mb ending stocks, 42.8% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18
the following. The following is forecast for “next crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 190 mb feed
& residual use, 2.326 bb total use, 802 mb ending stocks, 24.10% S/U, & $4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that
the following happens. This scenario assumes 46.059 ma planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low yield,
1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 175 mb feed & residual use, 2.175 bb total use,
594 mb ending stocks, 27.31% S/U, & $5.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … would shift some of the risk, and the
probability of … probability of additional profit (or loss), to
the landowner …
October 22, 2012
76-100%
5. I don’t know
Events Summary
• U.S. State-by-State … agreements
• Live Trade Events
– May 11’: Australia … have most influence…
• Risk sending signal of indifference …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … expenses for tax purposes.
• Risks due to low yields or prices … yields or prices, as well as
profits from high yields or prices …
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
of Feed-Ban and Specified Risk Material Policy Options .........................43
5.1 … Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Events … donations from individuals who
previously resided in BSE affected countries …